SELECTED METHODS OF AQUIFER TEST ANALYSIS1

Changes in groundwater levels due to a well discharging at a constant rate are used with various formulas to determine hydraulic properties of aquifers and their confining bed and to detect the presence of aquifer boundaries. These formulas are generally solved by graphical methods.     

DETERMINATION OF AQUIFER PARAMETERS USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Transmissivity and storativity of an aquifer are usually determined by analysis of steady or nonsteady pumping test data. The classical methods of nonsteady pumping test analysis are mostly graphical in nature and are, therefore, subject to errors of judgment in curve fitting, interpolating, and reading graphs and charts. A method is described here which does not require construction of graphs or use of charts and tables. The transmissivity and the storativity are calculated using regression analysis of the nonsteady time drawdown field data. The calculations can readily be performed on a hand held calculator. The procedure is described using four examples, and the results are compared with those obtained from graphical techniques. It is shown that the method is a viable alternative to the type curve solution of Theis or Straight line solution of Jacob for nonleaky artesian aquifers. However, the regression method poses problem in the cases of leaky artesian and water table aquifers.     

EVALUATION OF A STREAM AQUIFER ANALYSIS TEST USING ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS AND FIELD DATA1

ABSTRACT: Considerable advancements have been made in the development of analytical solutions for predicting the effects of pumping wells on adjacent streams and rivers. However, these solutions have not been sufficiently evaluated against field data. The objective of this research is to evaluate the predictive performance of recently proposed analytical solutions for unsteady stream depletion using field data collected during a stream/aquifer analysis test at the Tamarack State Wildlife Area in eastern Colorado. Two primary stream/aquifer interactions exist at the Tamarack site: (1) between the South Platte River and the alluvial aquifer and (2) between a backwater stream and the alluvial aquifer. A pumping test is performed next to the backwater stream channel. Drawdown measured in observation wells is matched to predictions by recently proposed analytical solutions to derive estimates of aquifer and streambed parameters. These estimates are compared to documented aquifer properties and field measured streambed conductivity. The analytical solutions are capable of estimating reasonable values of both aquifer and streambed parameters with one solution capable of simultaneously estimating delayed aquifer yield and stream flow recharge. However, for long term water management, it is reasonable to use simplified analytical solutions not concerned with early‐time delayed yield effects. For this site, changes in the water level in the stream during the test and a varying water level profile at the beginning of the pumping test influence the application of the analytical solutions.     

PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION IN A TWO‐MULTIPLIER SEDIMENT YIELD MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A process based, distributed runoff erosion model (KINEROS2) was used to examine problems of parameter identification of sediment entrainment equations for small watersheds. Two multipliers were used to reflect the distributed nature of the sediment entrainment parameters: one multiplier for a raindrop induced entrainment parameter, and one multiplier for a flow induced entrainment parameter. The study was conducted in three parts. First, parameter identification was studied for simulated error free data sets where the parameter values were known. Second, the number of data points in the simulated sedigraphs was reduced to reflect the effect of temporal sampling frequency on parameter identification. Finally, event data from a small range‐land watershed were used to examine parameter identifiability when the parameter values are unknown. Results demonstrated that whereas unique multiplier values can be obtained for simulated error free data, unique parameter values could not be obtained for some event data. Unique multiplier values for raindrop induced entrainment and flow induced entrainment were found for events with greater than a two‐year return period (～25 mm) that also had at least 10 mm of rain in ten minutes. It was also found that the three‐minute sampling frequency used for the sediment sampler might be inadequate to identify parameters in some cases.     

INFILTRATION OF ATRAZINE AND METABOLITES FROM A STREAM TO AN ALLUVIAL AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT: The infiltration of atrazine, deethylatrazine, and deisopropylatrazine from Walnut Creek, a tributary stream, to the alluvial valley aquifer along the South Skunk River in central Iowa occurred where the stream transects the river's flood plain. A preliminary estimate indicated that the infiltration was significant and warrants further investigation. Infiltration was estimated by measuring the loss of stream discharge in Walnut Creek and the concentrations of atrazine and its metabolites deethylatrazine and deisopropylatrazine, in ground water 1 m beneath the streambed. Infiltration was estimated before application of agrichemicals to the fields during a dry period on April 7, 1994, and after application of agrichemicals during a period of small runoff on June 8, 1994. On April 7, the flux of atrazine, deethylatrazine, and deisopropylatrazine from Walnut Creek into the alluvial valley aquifer ranged from less than 10 to 60 (μg/d)/m², whereas on June 8 an increased flux ranged from 270 to 3060 (μg/d)/m². By way of comparison, the calculated fluxes of atrazine beneath Walnut Creek, for these two dates, were two to five orders of magnitude greater than an estimated flux of atrazine to ground water caused by leaching from a field on a per-unit-area basis. Furthermore, the unit-area flux rates of water from Walnut Creek to the alluvial valley aquifer were about three orders of magnitude greater than estimated recharge to the alluvial aquifer from precipitation. The large flux of chemicals from Walnut Creek to the alluvial valley aquifer was due in part to the conductive streambed and rather fast ground water velocities; average vertical hydraulic conductivity through the streambed was calculated as 35 and 90 m/d for the two sampling dates, and estimated ground water velocities ranged from 1 to 5 m/d.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

THE BISCAYNE AQUIFER CONTAMINATION: CLEANUP AND PREVENTION1

ABSTRACT: The Biscayne Aquifer is the sole source of drinking water for approximately three million residents of southeast Florida. Nine hazardous waste sites on the EPA National Priority List overlie this aquifer. Extensive investigation of an 80 square-mile area in metropolitan Miami detected low to moderate levels of toxic contaminants in the ground water, with volatile organic chemicals the most prevalent. The Centers for Disease Control concluded that contamination of the aquifer within the study area poses a serious potential threat to public health. Recommendations for source control and cleanup have been partially carried out. The top few feet of soil at the Miami Drum site have been excavated and relocated; ground water encountered during excavation has been withdrawn and treated, and the Northwest 58th Street Landfill has been closed. Recovery and treatment of ground water from the contaminated area was the recommended cleanup measure and has been approved by EPA and state and local agencies. A preventive action program for the Biscayne Aquifer region was also recommended for implementation by local agencies. This program consists of regulations, waste management practices, construction and treatment guidelines, and public information activities and materials. Implementing this program will help keep the Biscayne Aquifer water drinkable far into the future.     

DEVELOPMENT OF PREDICTION EQUATIONS FOR A PHREATIC AQUIFER IN RESPONSE TO INFILTRATION: DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The need for a quick means to predict the subsurface flow into a stream caused the authors to take a different approach to the problem. Dimensional analysis was applied to deduce a functional relationship between the dependent and independent variables. This paper lays the ground work for the development of prediction equations for a phreatic aquifer in response to infiltration.     

ANALYSIS OF PUMPING TESTS: SIGNIFICANCE OF WELL DIAMETER,PARTIAL PENETRATION,AND NOISE1

ABSTRACT: The nonlinear least squares (NLS) method was applied to pumping and recovery aquifer test data in confined and unconfined aquifers with finite diameter and partially penetrating pumping wells, and with partially penetrating piezometers or observation wells. It was demonstrated that noiseless and moderately noisy drawdown data from observation points located less than two saturated thicknesses of the aquifer from the pumping well produced an exact or acceptable set of parameters when the diameter of the pumping well was included in the analysis. The accuracy of the estimated parameters, particularly that of specific storage, decreased with increases in the noise level in the observed drawdown data. With consideration of the well radii, the noiseless drawdown data from the pumping well in an unconfined aquifer produced good estimates of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities and specific yield, but the estimated specific storage was unacceptable. When noisy data from the pumping well were used, an acceptable set of parameters was not obtained. Further experiments with noisy drawdown data in an unconfined aquifer revealed that when the well diameter was included in the analysis, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield and vertical hydraulic conductivity may be estimated rather effectively from piezometers located over a range of distances from the pumping well. Estimation of specific storage became less reliable for piezometers located at distances greater than the initial saturated thickness of the aquifer. Application of the NLS to field pumping and recovery data from a confined aquifer showed that the estimated parameters from the two tests were in good agreement only when the well diameter was included in the analysis. Without consideration of well radii, the estimated values of hydraulic conductivity from the pumping and recovery tests were off by a factor of four.     

APPLICATION OF COMPUTER INTENSIVE STATISTICS TO PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN STREAMFLOW SYNTHESIS1

ABSTRACT: This paper introduces the application of Computer Intensive Statistics (CIS) to the evaluation of parameter uncertainty with specific reference to the parameters in the ARMA models used in the synthesis of streamflows. The CIS provides an empirically derived joint distribution for all parameters. Random values from this distribution can be drawn for application in the model for the generation of a specific synthetic sample. The CIS originally proposed by Efron and discussed herein is of general applicability in the evaluation of uncertainty in any statistic derived from a set of data. Some comments and limitations of the CIS are discussed in the concluding remarks.     

EFFECTS OF ARTIFICIAL RECHARGE ON GROUND WATER QUALITY AND AQUIFER STORAGE RECOVERY1

ABSTRACT: Ground water nitrate contamination and water level decline are common concern in Nebraska. Effects of artificial recharge on ground water quality and aquifer storage recovery (ASR) were studied with spreading basins constructed in the highly agricultural region of the Central Platte, Nebraska. A total of 1.10 million m³ of Platte River water recharged the aquifer through 5000 m² of the recharge basins during 1992, 1993, and 1994. This is equivalent to the quantity needed to completely displace the ground water beneath 34 ha of the local primary aquifer with 13 m thickness and 0.25 porosity. Successful NO₃-N remediation was documented beneath and downgradient of the recharge basins, where NO₃-N declined from 20 to 2 mg L^-1. Ground water atrazine concentrations at the site decreased from 2 to 0.2 mg L^-1 due to recharge. Both NO₃-N and atrazine contamination dramatically improved from concentrations exceeding the maximum contaminant levels to those of drinking water quality. The water table at the site rose rapidly in response to recharge during the early stage then leveled off as infiltration rates declined. At the end of the 1992 recharge season, the water table 12 m downgradient from the basins was elevated 1.36 m above the preproject level; however, at the end of the 1993 recharge season, any increase in the water table from artificial recharge was masked by extremely slow infiltration rates and heavy recharge from precipitation from the wettest growing season in over 100 years. The water table rose 1.37 m during the 1994 recharge season. Resultant ground water quality and ASR improvement from the artificial recharge were measured at 1000 m downgradient and 600 m upgradient from the recharge basins. Constant infiltration rates were not sustained in any of the three years, and rates always decreased with time presumably because of clogging. Scraping the basin floor increased infiltration rates. Using a pulsed recharge to create dry and wet cycles and maintaining low standing water heads in the basins appeared to reduce microbial growth, and therefore enhanced infiltration.     

GROUND WATER SOLUTE TRANSPORT,OPTIMAL REMEDIATION PLANNING,AND DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: A groundwater quality modeling advisory system has been developed for the U.S. Air Force for use in investigating remediation alternatives for the cleanup of subsurface contamination. The system is capable of accounting for uncertainty, not only in the prediction of solute transport but also in the optimization of the remediation scheme through chance constraints. The system guides users in the selection of appropriate transport models through an algorithm independently tested with machine learning codes. An application to Hill Air Force Base, Utah, is presented for which different pump-and-treat strategies are considered: the results are evaluated in terms of the cumulative distribution of the contaminant concentration for each case and the tradeoff relationship between the cost of remediation and the probability that the remediation strategy exceeds an established maximum allowable contaminant concentration.     

USE OF FIRST-ORDER UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO OPTIMIZE SUCCESSFUL STREAM WATER QUALITY SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: A first-order uncertainty technique is developed to quantify the relationship between field data collection and a modeling exercise involving both calibration and subsequent verification. A simple statistic (LTOTAL) is used to quantify the total likelihood (probability) of successfully calibrating and verifying the model. Results from the first-order technique are compared with those from a traditional Monte Carlo simulation approach using a simple Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model. The largest single difference is caused by the filtering or removal of unrealistic outcomes within the Monte Carlo framework. The amount of bias inherent in the first-order approach is also a function of the magnitude of input variability and sampling location. The minimum bias of the first-order technique is approximately 20 percent for a case involving relatively large uncertainties. However the bias is well behaved (consistent) so as to allow for correct decision making regarding the relative efficacy of various sampling strategies. The utility of the first-order technique is demonstrated by linking data collection costs with modeling performance. For a simple and inexpensive project, a wise and informed selection resulted in an LTOTAL value of 86 percent, while an uninformed selection could result in an LTOTAL value of only 55 percent.     

ASSESSMENT OF HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES IN AN UNCONFINED ALLUVIAL AQUIFER NEAR GRAND ISLAND,NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented to analyze time-drawdown data from one or more observation wells for the calculation of four hydraulic parameters for unconfined aquifers: vertical hydraulic conductivity, horizontal hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient, and specific yield. The hydraulic parameter results are further analyzed for reliability and the possible ranges of the actual parameter values. After verification using a theoretical example, the method was used to analyze pumping test data from 22 observation wells in an unconfined alluvial aquifer near Grand Island, Nebraska. Results indicate that this method can be used to efficiently calculate the four hydraulic parameters in this type of aquifer. The method can also identify the impact of measurement errors on the parameter estimates, and provide ranges of the actual parameter values. The parameter values calculated using this method were compared to those determined using other theories. It is found that this method is very useful for calculating the hydraulic properties from pumping test data and for analyzing the parameter reliability.     

IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF OUTDOOR RECREATION HABITATS: THE RECREATION HABITAT ANALYSIS METHOD1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a concept for identification and ranking of outdoor recreation habitats using principles of ecology as a guide. The Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) is a commonly used technique for assessment of human impacts on the vigor of wildlife species, and serves as the model for the Recreation Habitat Analysis Method (RHAM). Recreation activities are dependent on habitat attributes for their success just as are wildlife species. A sample model is described for recreation activities at large, multipurpose lakes. RHAM could be applied to recreation experiences in a variety of settings including smaller water bodies and riparian and terrestrial ecosystems.     

FOURIER INFERENCE: SOME METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF ARRAY AND NONGAUSSIAN SERIES DATA1

Fourier inference is a collection of analytic techniques and philosophic attitudes, for the analysis of data, wherein essential use is made of empirical Fourier transforms. This paper sets down some basic results concerning the finite Fourier transforms of stationary process data and then, to illustrate the approach, uses those results to develop procedures for: 1) estimating cloud and storm motion, 2) passive sonar and 3) fitting finite parameter models to nonGaussian time series via bispectral fitting. This last procedure is illustrated by an analysis of a stretch of Mississippi River runoff data. Examples 1), 2) refer to data having the form Y(x_j, y_j, t) for j = 1, …, J and t = 0, …, T-l say, and view that data as part of a realization of a spatial-temporal process. Such data has become common in geophysics generally and in hydrology particularly. The goal of this paper is to present some new statistical procedures pertinent to problems in the water sciences, equally it is to illustrate the genesis of those procedures and how their properties may be approximated.     

QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: To assure attainment and maintenance of desired water quality levels in our rivers and streams, systematic monitoring must be performed. A preliminary phase of the design of water quality surveillance systems is the specification of sampling frequencies and station locations throughout the basin; that is, the development of an adequate space/time sampling plan. The purpose of this paper is to present some quantitative methods which have been developed to identify candidate sets of sampling frequencies and station locations, and to establish priorities for implementing the different frequencies and locations. These methods are useful in the cost/effectiveness trade-off analyses in surveillance system design, and are based on the surveillance system objective of pollution abatement in which it is desired to detect violations in state-federal water quality standards. A spatial priority measure is developed which is dependent both on the water quality profile in the stream and on the information obtained from monitoring stations located in other reaches. Also, a temporal sampling priority rating is presented which is a measure of the effectiveness of the surveillance system with respect to its ability to detect the violations in the standards. To illustrate the quantitative methods, the procedures are applied to the Wabash River Basin.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

BRACKISH GROUNDWATER DESALINATION: A COMMUNITY'S SOLUTION TO WATER SUPPLY AND AQUIFER PROTECTION1

The City of Cape May, New Jersey, draws its primary water supply from the Cohansey Aquifer, a unit serving residential, community, and industrial users throughout the Coastal Plain. By the year 2000, projected population growth will impose a peak water demand beyond available supplies. In addition, regional over-pumping threatens the Cohansey with saltwater intrusion, placing the city wells at risk by 1998. In the early-to mid 1990s, three broad categories of water-supply alternatives were evaluated by regional, state, and federal agencies — additional pumping from the Cohansey, conjunctive use of the Cohansey with other aquifers, and desalination of brackish groundwater. An approach was adopted in 1996 which derives up to 2 MGD from desalination of brackish groundwater, with the remaining peak demand satisfied by short-term pumpage from existing wells in the Cohansey. The first of two wells has been completed, yielding 1.4 MGD of brackish groundwater. Similar performance from the second well will exceed the design goal. When the initial system comes on line during the summer of 1998, New Jersey will have its first public water supply derived from desalinated groundwater. The use of desalinated groundwater balances competing demands for water resources in the southern Cape Region of New Jersey, allowing continued economic growth while reducing human impacts on a threatened aquifer.     

APPLICATION OF PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR CALIBRATING TANK MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Many automatic calibration processes have been proposed to efficiently calibrate the 16 parameters involved in the four‐layered tank model. The Multistart Powell and Stuffed Complex Evolution (SCE) methods are considered the best two procedures. Two rainfall events were designed to compare the performance and efficiency of these two methods. The first rainfall event is short term and the second designed for long term rainfall data collection. Both rainfall events include a lengthy no‐rainfall period. Two sets of upper and lower values for the search range were selected for the numerical tests. The results show that the Multistart Powell and SCE methods are able to obtain the true values for the 16 parameters with a sufficiently long no‐rainfall period after a rainfall event. In addition, by using two selected objective functions, one based on root mean square error and one based on root mean square relative error criteria, it is found that the no‐rainfall period lengths necessary to obtain the converged true values for the 16 parameters are roughly the same. The SCE method provides a more efficient search based on an appropriate preliminary search range. The Multistart Powell method, on the other hand, leads to more accurate search results when there is no suitable search range selected based on the parameter calibration experience.