A COMPARISON OF TWO METHODS FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two major objectives in operating the multireservoir system of the Upper Colorado River basin are maximization of hydroelectric power production and maximization of the reliability of annual water supply. These two objectives conflict. Optimal operation of the reservoir system to achieve both is unattainable. This paper seeks the best compromise solution for an aggregated reservoir as a surrogate of the multireservoir system by using two methods: the constraint method and the method of combined stochastic and deterministic modeling. Both methods are used to derive the stationary optimal operating policy for the aggregated reservoir by using stochastic dynamic programming but with different objective functions and minimum monthly release constraints. The resulting operating policies are then used in simulated operation of the reservoir with historical inflow records to evaluate their relative effectiveness. The results show that the policy obtained from the combination method would yield more hydropower production and higher reliability of annual water supply than that from the constraint-method policy.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION ANI EVALUATION OF DOWNSTREAM FLOW AUGMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: Operation of a storage‐based reservoir modifies the downstream flow usually to a value higher than that of natural flow in dry season. This could be important for irrigation, water supply, or power production as it is like an additional downstream benefit without any additional investment. This study addresses the operation of two proposed reservoirs and the downstream flow augmentation at an irrigation project located at the outlet of the Gandaki River basin in Nepal. The optimal operating policies of the reservoirs were determined using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model considering the maximization of power production. The modified flows downstream of the reservoirs were simulated by a simulation model using the optimal operating policy (for power maximization) and a synthetic long‐term inflow series. Comparing the existing flow (flow in river without reservoir operation) and the modified flow (flow after reservoir operation) at the irrigation project, the additional amount of flow was calculated. The reliability analysis indicated that the supply of irrigation could be increased by 25 to 100 percent of the existing supply over the dry season (January to April) with a reliability of more than 80 percent.     

A METHODOLOGY FOR SELECTING AMONG WATER QUALITY ALTERNATIVES1

While reservoirs are constructed to regulate stream flows for several beneficial purposes including flood control, water supply, hydroelectric power, irrigation and low flow augmentation and to enhance water based recreation, they create problems of water quality that offer a new dimension to the task of efficient operation. Among other potential deleterious effects, thermal stratification in reservoirs inhibits mixing and causes a deterioration of dissolved oxygen levels in lower layers. Several investigators have examined the thermal properties of reservoirs and resultant effects upon dissolved oxygen and have suggested alternative schemes for alleviating detrimental effects (1,2,3,4,5). The objective of this paper is to outline a methodology for evaluating some of these alternatives in a river-reservoir system where downstream water quality control is one of several purposes to be served by the reservoir.     

OPTIMIZING FLOOD CONTROL ALLOCATION FOR A MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT. In the last decade much research has been devoted to applying the systems analysis approach to water resources problems. A popular research goal has been determination of the “best” method of operating a multipurpose reservoir. The goal of this study was to derive the economically optimum flood control diagram for a multipurpose reservoir by systems analysis. The technique employed to optimize the flood control diagram was programmed so that the optimization process could be applied to other multipurpose reservoirs. Two computer programs developed at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center were utilized with modifications to simulate the operation of Folsom Reservoir in central California. Economic analyses were incorporated along with an optimization technique into the reservoir operations program; and the resultant program was capable of routing a sequence of monthly reservoir inflows, computing benefits for various flood control diagrams (as dictated by the optimization procedure), and selecting the economically optimum flood control diagram. The univariate gradient technique was the optimization procedure employed. The two computer programs are on file at the Hydrologic Engineering Center in Davis, California.     

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

Conversion of a Missouri River Dam and Reservoir to a Sustainable System: Sediment Management1

Abstract: A present and future challenge for water resources engineers is to extend the useful life of our dams and reservoirs. Ongoing reservoir sedimentation in impoundments must be addressed; sedimentation in many reservoirs already limits project benefits and effective project life. Sustainability requires that incoming sediment be moved downstream past the impounding dam. We use Lewis and Clark Lake, the most downstream of the six Missouri River main stem reservoirs, to demonstrate how a reservoir in advanced stages of its project life could be converted to a sustainable system with local benefits exceeding costs by a factor of 1.5. Full consideration of benefits would further enhance project justification. The proposed strategy involves four phases that will take about 50 years to complete. Cost estimates for this potential project range from the quantitative to the plausible, but it is clear that the results justify a full engineering, environmental, and economic study of this model project. If implemented, the project will create scientific knowledge and develop technologies useful for achieving sustainability at many other reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin and beyond.     

A Method to Consider Whether Dams Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Stream Temperatures

This article provides a method for examining mesoscale water quality objectives downstream of dams with anticipated climate change using a multimodel approach. Coldwater habitat for species such as trout and salmon has been reduced by water regulation, dam building, and land use change that alter stream temperatures. Climate change is an additional threat. Changing hydroclimatic conditions will likely impact water temperatures below dams and affect downstream ecology. We model reservoir thermal dynamics and release operations (assuming that operations remain unchanged through time) of hypothetical reservoirs of different sizes, elevations, and latitudes with climate‐forced inflow hydrologies to examine the potential to manage water temperatures for coldwater habitat. All models are one dimensional and operate on a weekly timestep. Results are presented as water temperature change from the historical time period and indicate that reservoirs release water that is cooler than upstream conditions, although the absolute temperatures of reaches below dams warm with climate change. Stream temperatures are sensitive to changes in reservoir volume, elevation, and latitude. Our approach is presented as a proof of concept study to evaluate reservoir regulation effects on stream temperatures and coldwater habitat with climate change.     

Developing a New Operations Plan for the Bow River Basin Using Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

The Bow River Basin is a cornerstone of Alberta's development. In 2010, stakeholders representing interests from agriculture, municipalities, environment, and more formed the Bow River Project Research Consortium to help determine the potential for improving the operations in the basin. At present, upstream reservoirs are operated primarily for hydropower, whereas downstream reservoirs are operated for irrigation. Through Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support the stakeholders were able to develop a new method for operating the system that would dramatically improve environmental performance. The main components of the new operating strategy called for: purchase or setting aside of a small amount of storage volume in the power reservoirs; a set of rules for releases from that storage; an agreement by the major irrigation districts with the largest water licenses to utilize their ability to shift deliveries to and from their large offstream storage reservoirs to allow for increased instream flows, and to allow junior water license holders (mainly municipal and industrial supplies) an uninterrupted water supply; limitations of reservoir fluctuations to improve inreservoir habitat for fisheries; and increased minimum flows throughout the system leading to improved environmental outcomes. Costs of this strategy were minimal, impacts on power revenue were estimated at <US$2 million/yr on average. Compensatory arrangements should be possible.     

OPTIMIZATION OF MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR SYSTEM OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: The goal programming approach for multipurpose reservoir operation has been proposed and applied to the Bhadra reservoir system, having irrigation and hydropower production as dual purposes, in India. The objective of the model is to satisfy sequentially a series of operating criteria. Two goal programming models, one with the objective function as minimizing the deviations from storage targets and the other with the objective function as minimizing the deviations from release targets, have been formulated and applied to the reservoir system under study. The results proved that the model with release targets is preferred over the model with storage targets for determining operational policies for multipurpose reservoir system.     

APPLICATION OF A LOW-FLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The application of a low-flow assessment model is illustrated for the Monogahela River Basin. The model simulates the impact of reservoir operating rules and consumptive use limitation policies on low-flow frequency at downstream locations in the basin. Policies are evaluated using an observed flow sequence and synthetic flow inputs. The paper reviews the historical development of flow management on the Monogahela to provide background for the current study.     

SEASONAL ARIMA INFLOW MODELS FOR RESERVOIR SIZING1

ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

A RISK-BASED APPROACH FOR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION OF A MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: Many approaches are available for operation of a multipurpose reservoir during flood season; one of them is allocation of storage space for flood control. A methodology to determine a reservoir operation policy based on explicit risk consideration is presented. The objective of the formulation is to maximize the reservoir storage at the end of a flood season while ensuring that the risk of an overflow is within acceptable limits. The Dynamic Programming technique has been used to solve the problem. This approach has been applied to develop operation policies for an existing reservoir. The performance of the policy was evaluated through simulation and was found to be satisfactory.     

PLANNING LEVEL ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF RESERVOIRS FOR WATER SUPPLY AND FLOW AUGMENTATION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE1

: In general, the choice among reservoirs for water supply or flow augmentation is a multiobjective problem. Choices are based in part on the yield available from water supply reservoirs or, in the case of flow augmentation reservoirs, on the increase in low flows at downstream locations. Detailed estimates of these effects may be too costly for basin planning purposes. Thus this paper presents methods for rapid estimation of those quantities for New Hampshire. For water supply reservoirs, a composite empirical relation between Y95 (the draft available 95 percent of the time) and storage ratio, S*, is developed from previous studies in the region. For flow augmentation reservoirs, empirical relations between S* and degree of regulation, R*, are applied to each upstream regulating reservoir. Values of regulation arc then summed and divided by the mean flow at the downstream reach of interest. This parameter, (ΓR)*, is then related to increase in flow available 95 percent of the time by an empirical relation.     

Upstream Sediment‐Control Dams: Five Decades of Experience in the Rapidly Eroding Dahan River Basin,Taiwan

Sedimentation is emerging as a key issue in sustainable reservoir management. One approach to controlling reservoir sedimentation is to trap sediment in hydraulic structures upstream of the reservoir. In the 1,163‐km² catchment of the Dahan River (Taiwan) over 120 “sabo” dams were built to reduce sediment yield to Shihmen Reservoir. Built in 1963 for water supply, Shihmen has lost over 40% of its 290‐Mm³ storage capacity to sedimentation. Most of these upstream structures were small, but three had capacities >9 Mm³. Field measurements and historical data from the Water Resources Agency show most smaller dams had filled with sediment by 1976. The three largest were full or nearly so by 2007, when one (Barlin Dam) failed, releasing a pulse of 7.5 Mm³, most of its 10.4 Mm³ stored sediment downstream. The Central Range of Taiwan is rapidly eroding (denudation rates 3‐6 mm/yr), so geologically high loads make sediment problems manifest sooner. Even in other environments, however, eventually small dams built upstream of large reservoirs are likely to fill themselves, creating multiple small sediment‐filled reservoirs, some located in sites inaccessible to mechanical removal. Our analysis suggests sabo dams do not offer a long‐term basis for controlling reservoir sedimentation in such a high‐sediment yield environment. Sustainable solutions must somehow pass sediment downstream, as would be accomplished by a sediment bypass around Shihmen Reservoir, as now being studied.     

REGULATED RIVER MODELING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT: THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Great Plains of the United States, drained primanly by the Missouri River, are very sensitive to shifts in climate. The six main stem dams on the Missouri River control more than one‐half of the nearly 1.5 million square kilometer basin and can store three times the annual inflow from upstream. The dams are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers using a Master Manual that describes system priorities and benefits. The complex operational rules were incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool computer model (SWAT). SWAT is a distributed parameter rainfall‐runoff model capable of simulating the transpiration suppression effects of CO₂ enrichment. The new reservoir algorithms were calibrated using a 25‐year long historic record of basin climate and discharge records. Results demonstrate that it is possible to incorporate the operation of a highly regulated river system into a complex rainfall‐runoff model. The algorithms were then tested using extreme climate scenarios indicative of a prolonged drought, a short drought, and a ten percent increase in basin‐wide precipitation. It is apparent that the rules for operating the reservoirs will likely require modification if, for example, upper‐basin precipitation were to increase only ten percent under changed climate conditions.     

MULTIOBJECTIVE REAL‐TIME RESERVOIR OPERATION WITH A NETWORK FLOW ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: A network flow algorithm has been developed for the optimization of real‐time operation of a multiple reservoir system. Two purposes have been considered in the operation: flood control and hydropower generation. A special network structure was developed which allows the consideration of river routing. A multiobjective formulation is utilized thus allowing generation of a non‐dominated curve. The effect of imperfect forecast on the performance of the real‐time operation model is also evaluated. An application is made to a subsystem of the Brazilian hydroelectric system, located in the Paranapanema river basin. In this case study, the model showed good performance under the largest flood of the historical records.     

河道型水库过饱和总溶解气体释放模型及应用研究

随着一系列梯级水电站的建成运行,因上游电站泄水引起下游河道型水库水体中总溶解气体(TDG)过饱和,导致库区鱼类患气泡病甚至死亡的风险增加。针对河道型水库过饱和TDG释放预测问题,建立河道型水库的纵向一维过饱和TDG释放预测模型,研究不同洪水条件下河道型水库在变水位运行条件下的水动力学和过饱和TDG释放特性,分析了过饱和TDG沿程释放和代表性断面的TDG过程,探讨了横断面滩地区域的水深变化和鱼类补偿水深的满足性。结果表明降低来流的TDG水平是减小其不利影响的重要手段,在来流TDG饱和度一定时,河道型水库适当以高水位运行能够为滩地区域鱼类提供足够的躲避水深。本文结果对梯级电站优化调度以减缓TDG影响的研究和方案实施提供了技术支撑,在梯级水电开发河流的水生态保护方面具有重要意义。     

Multireservoir real-time operations for flood control using balanced water level index method

This paper presents a real-time simulation-optimization operation procedure for determining the reservoir releases at each time step during a flood. The proposed procedure involves two models, i.e., a hydrological forecasting model and a reservoir operation model. In the reservoir operation model, this paper compares two flood-control operation strategies for a multipurpose multireservoir system. While Strategy 1 is the real-time joint reservoir operations without using the balanced water level index (BWLI) method, Strategy 2 involves real-time joint reservoir operations using the BWLI method. The two strategies presented are formulated as mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The idea of using the BWLI method is derived from the HEC-5 program developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. The proposed procedure has been applied to the Tanshui River Basin system in Taiwan using the 6h ahead forecast data of six typhoons. A comparison of the results obtained from the two strategies reveals that Strategy 2 performs much better than Strategy 1 in determining the reservoir real-time releases throughout the system during flood emergencies in order to minimize flooding, while maintaining all reservoirs in the system in balance if possible. Consequently, the proposed model using the BWLI method demonstrates its effectiveness in estimating real-time releases.     

STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT. For a multipurpose single reservoir a deterministic optimal operating policy can be readily devised by the dynamic programming method. However, this method can only be applied to sets of deterministic stream flows as might be used repetitively in a Monte Carlo study or possibly in a historical study. This paper reports a study in which an optimal operating policy for a multipurpose reservoir was determined, where the optimal operating policy is stated in terms of the state of the reservoir indicated by the storage volume and the river flow in the preceding month and uses a stochastic dynamic programming approach. Such a policy could be implemented in real time operation on a monthly basis or it could be used in a design study. As contrasted with deterministic dynamic programming, this method avoids the artificiality of using a single set of stream flows. The data for this study are the conditional probabilities of the stream flow in successive months, the physical features of the reservoir in question, and the return functions and constraints under which the system operates.