Hydrograph Separation by Incorporating Climatological Factors: Application to Small Experimental Watersheds 1

Abstract: Evaluating the relative amounts of water moving through the different components of the hydrological cycle is required for precise management and planning of water resources. An important aspect of this evaluation is the partitioning of streamflow into surface (quick flow) and base‐flow components. A prior study evaluated 40 different approaches for hydrograph‐partitioning on a field scale watershed in the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern United States and concluded that the Boughton’s method produced the most consistent and accurate results. However, its accuracy depends upon the proper estimation of: (1) the end of surface runoff, and (2) the fraction factor (α) that is function of many physical and hydrologic characteristics of a watershed. Proper identification of the end of surface runoff was accomplished by using a second derivative approach. Applying this approach to 12 years of separately measured surface and subsurface flow data from a field scale watershed (study area) proved to be accurate for 87% of the time. Estimation of the α value was accomplished in this study using two steps: (1) alpha was fitted to individual hydrographs: and, (2) a regression equation that determines these alpha values based on climatological factors (e.g., rainfall, evapotranspiration) was developed. Using these strategies improved the streamflow partitioning method’s performance significantly.     

Estimation of Daily Streamflow of Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds by Combining Estimated Magnitude and Sequence

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined. Magnitude is modeled using the flow duration curve (FDC), whereas sequence is modeled by transferring streamflow sequence of gauged watershed(s). This study tests the applicability of the approach on watersheds ranging in size from about 25‐7,226 km² in Southeastern Coastal Plain (U.S.) with substantial surface storage of wetlands. A 19‐point regionalized FDC is developed to estimate streamflow magnitude using the three most selected variables (drainage area, hydrologic soil index, and maximum 24‐h precipitation with a recurrence interval of 100 years) by a greedy‐heuristic search process. The results of validation on four watersheds (Trent River, North Carolina: 02092500; Satilla River, Georgia: 02226500; Black River, South Carolina: 02136000; and Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina: 02176500) yielded Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.86‐0.98 for the predicted magnitude and 0.09‐0.84 for the predicted daily streamflow over a simulation period of 1960‐2010. The prediction accuracy of the method on two headwater watersheds at Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina was weak, but comparable to simulations by MIKE‐SHE.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for the Alleghany Plateau/Valley and Ridge,Piedmont, and Coastal Plain Regions of Maryland

Regional curves are empirical relationships that can help identify the bankfull stage in ungaged watersheds and aid in designing the riffle dimension in stream restoration projects. Bankfull regional curves were developed from gage stations with drainage areas less than 102 mi² (264.2 km²) for the Alleghany Plateau/Valley and Ridge (AP/VR), Piedmont, and Coastal Plain regions of Maryland. The AP/VR regions were combined into one region for this project. These curves relate bankfull discharge, cross‐sectional area, width, and mean depth to drainage area within the same hydro‐physiographic region (region with similar rainfall/runoff relationship). The bankfull discharge curve for the Coastal Plain region was further subdivided into the Western Coastal Plain (WCP) and Eastern Coastal Plain (ECP) region due to differences in topography and runoff. Results show that the Maryland Piedmont yields the highest bankfull discharge rate per unit drainage area, followed by the AP/VR, WCP, and ECP. Likewise, the Coastal Plain and AP/VR streams have less bankfull cross‐sectional area per unit drainage area than the Piedmont. The average bankfull discharge return interval across the three hydro‐physiographic regions was 1.4 years. The Maryland regional curves were compared to other curves in the eastern United States. The average bankfull discharge return interval for the other studies ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years.     

Cropland Riparian Buffers throughout Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Spatial Patterns and Effects on Nitrate Loads Delivered to Streams

We used statistical models to provide the first empirical estimates of riparian buffer effects on the cropland nitrate load to streams throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. For each of 1,964 subbasins, we quantified the 1990 prevalence of cropland and riparian buffers. Cropland was considered buffered if the topographic flow path connecting it to a stream traversed a streamside forest or wetland. We applied a model that predicts stream nitrate concentration based on physiographic province and the watershed proportions of unbuffered and buffered cropland. We used another model to predict annual streamflow based on precipitation and temperature, and then multiplied the predicted flows and concentrations to estimate 1990 annual nitrate loads. Across the entire Chesapeake watershed, croplands released 92.3 Gg of nitrate nitrogen, but 19.8 Gg of that was removed by riparian buffers. At most, 29.4 Gg more might have been removed if buffer gaps were restored so that all cropland was buffered. The other 43.1 Gg of cropland load cannot be addressed with riparian buffers. The Coastal Plain physiographic province provided 52% of the existing buffer reduction of Bay‐wide nitrate loads and 36% of potential additional removal from buffer restoration in cropland buffer gaps. Existing and restorable nitrate removal in buffers were lower in the other three major provinces because of less cropland, lower buffer prevalence, and lower average buffer nitrate removal efficiency.     

BANKFULL HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS AND RECURRENCE INTERVALS FOR NORTH CAROLINA'S COASTAL PLAIN1

ABSTRACT: Bank full hydraulic geometry relationships relate stream channel geometry to watershed size for specific physiographic regions. This paper presents bank full hydraulic geometry relationships and recurrence intervals for the Southeastern Plain coercion and the flat woods subtype of the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain ecoregion found within North Carolina's Coastal Plain physiographic province. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal survey data from gated and unpaged streams were used to compute channel dimension and profile information. Power functions were developed, relating drainage area to bank full discharge, cross‐sectional area, width, and mean depth. Recurrence intervals of bank full events were estimated from gagged streams using both a Log‐Pearson Type III distribution of peak annual discharge and a partial‐duration series of average daily discharge. Results from both methods indicate that average bank full recurrence intervals for the study area are below one year. Determinations of recurrence intervals by the Log‐Pearson Type III distribution were for the most part inconclusive (less than one year), while a partial duration series estimated a 0.19 year average, ranging from 0.11 to 0.31 years.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for North and Northwest Florida Streams1

Abstract: Regional curves, which relate bankfull channel dimensions and discharge to watershed drainage area, are developed to aid in identifying the bankfull stage in ungaged watersheds, and estimating the bankfull discharge and dimensions for river studies and natural channel design applications. This study assessed 26 stable stream reaches in two hydro‐physiographic regions of the Florida Coastal Plain: the Northwest Florida Coastal Plain (NWFCP) and the North Florida Coastal Plain (NFCP). Data from stream reaches in Georgia and Alabama were also used to develop the Florida regional curves, since they are located in the same hydro‐physiographic region. Reaches were selected based on the presence of U.S. Geological Survey gage stations and indicators of limited watershed development (e.g., <10% impervious surface). Analyses were conducted to determine bankfull channel dimensions, bankfull discharge, average channel slope, and Rosgen stream classification. Based on these data, significant relationships were found between bankfull cross‐sectional area, width, mean depth, and discharge as a function of drainage area for both regions. Data from this study suggested that bankfull discharges and channel dimensions were larger from NWFCP streams than from Coastal Plain streams in North Carolina and Maryland. Bankfull discharges were similar between NFCP and Georgia coastal plain streams; therefore, the data were combined into one regional curve. In addition, the data were stratified by Rosgen stream type. This stratification strengthened the relationships of bankfull width and mean depth as a function of drainage area.     

EFFECTS OF LAND COVER AND GEOLOGY ON STREAM CHEMISTRY IN WATERSHEDS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY1

ABSTRACT: We measured the base‐flow stream chemistry in all the major physiographic provinces of the Chesapeake Bay drainage basin. The spatial variation of stream chemistry was closely related to differences in geology and land cover among the sampled watersheds. Some stream chemistry variables were strongly affected by geological settings in the watersheds while others were more influenced by land cover. The effects of land cover differed among chemical constituents and regions. Concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, pH, total alkalinity, and conductivity were mainly functions of carbonate bedrock, especially in the Great Valley. Nitrate‐N and total dissolved N were closely related to cropland and increased as the percentage of cropland increased. The rate of increase varied from region to region with the highest in the Piedmont. Na⁺ and Cl^? were mainly affected by the percentage of developed area in a watershed, especially in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont. We observed no significant effects of region or land cover on species of phosphorus because samples were collected under base flow conditions and only dissolved forms were measured. Dissolved silicate (DSi) was not related to any other water chemistry variables. DSi increased as developed area decreased and cropland increased in the Coastal Plain, but these patterns were reversed in the Piedmont. There was no consistent pattern in the spatial variation of land cover effects on the reduced forms of N, dissolved organic P, dissolved organic matter, and K⁺.     

Flow,Organic, and Inorganic Sediment Yields from a Channelized Watershed in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain

Many small streams in coastal watersheds in the southeastern United States are modified for agricultural, residential, and commercial development. In the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain, low‐relief topography and a shallow water table make stream channelization ubiquitous. To quantify the impacts of urbanization and stream channelization, we measured flow and sediment from an urbanizing watershed and a small forested watershed. Flow and sediment export rates were used to infer specific yields from forested and nonforested regions of the urbanizing watershed. Study objectives were to: (1) quantify the range of runoff‐to‐rainfall ratios; (2) quantify the range of specific sediment yields; (3) characterize the quantity and quality of particulate matter exported; and (4) estimate sediment yield attributable to agriculture, development, and channelization activities in the urbanizing watershed. Our results showed that the urban watershed exported over five times more sediment per unit area compared with the forested watershed. Sediment concentration was related to flow flashiness in the urban watershed and to flow magnitude in the forested watershed. Sediments from the forested watershed were dominated by organic matter, whereas mineral matter dominated sediment from the urban stream. Our results indicated that a significant shift in sediment quality and quantity are likely to occur as forested watersheds are transformed by urbanization in coastal South Carolina.     

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY,THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION,USA1

ABSTRACT: Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for unpaged streams in the Mid‐Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, and the Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of the Mid‐Atlantic Region were used to develop a set of power functions that relate streamflow to drainage area and hydraulic geometry to streamflow. For all three physiographic provinces, drainage area explained 95 to 98 percent of the variance in mean annual streamflow. Relationships between mean annual streamflow and water surface width and mean flow depth had coefficients of determination that ranged from R²= 0.55 to R²= 0.91, but the coefficient of determination between mean flow velocity and mean annual streamflow was lower (R²= 0.44 to R²= 0.54). The advantages of using the regional regression models to estimate streamflow over a conceptual model or a water balance model are its ease of application and reduced input data needs. The prediction of the regression equations were tested with data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). In addition, equations to transfer streamflow from gaged to ungaged streams are presented.     

Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain1

Epps, Thomas H., Daniel R. Hitchcock, Anand D. Jayakaran, Drake R. Loflin, Thomas M. Williams, and Devendra M. Amatya, 2012. Characterization of Storm Flow Dynamics of Headwater Streams in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐14. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12000 Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring was conducted in two first‐order lower coastal plain watersheds in South Carolina, United States, a region with increasing growth and land use change. Storm events over a three‐year period were analyzed for direct runoff coefficients (ROC) and the total storm response (TSR) as percent rainfall. ROC calculations utilized an empirical hydrograph separation method that partitioned total streamflow into sustained base flow and direct runoff components. ROC ratios ranged from 0 to 0.32 on the Upper Debidue Creek (UDC) watershed and 0 to 0.57 on Watershed 80 (WS80); TSR results ranged from 0 to 0.93 at UDC and 0.01 to 0.74 at WS80. Variability in event runoff generation was attributed to seasonal trends in water table elevation fluctuation as regulated by evapotranspiration. Groundwater elevation breakpoints for each watershed were identified based on antecedent water table elevation, streamflow, ROCs, and TSRs. These thresholds represent the groundwater elevation above which event runoff generation increased sharply in response to rainfall. For effective coastal land use decision making, baseline watershed hydrology must be understood to serve as a benchmark for management goals, based on both seasonal and event‐based surface and groundwater interactions.     

BASE FLOW RECESSION RATES,LOW FLOWS,AND HYDROLOGIC FEATURES OF SMALL WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA,USA1

This paper examines the relationships between measurable watershed hydrologic features, base flow recession rates, and the Q_7,10 low flow statistic (the annual minimum seven‐day average streamflow occurring once every 10 years on average). Base flow recession constants were determined by analyzing hydrograph recession data from 24 small (>130 km²), unregulated watersheds across five major physiographic provinces of Pennsylvania, providing a highly variable dataset. Geomorphic, hydrogeologic, and land use parameters were determined for each watershed. The base flow recession constant was found to be most strongly correlated to drainage density, geologic index, and ruggedness number (watershed slope); however, these three parameters are intercorrelated. Multiple regression models were developed for predicting the recession rate, and it was found that only two parameters, drainage density and hydrologic soil group, were required to obtain good estimates of the recession constant. Equations were also developed to relate the recession rates to Q_7,10 per unit area, and to the Q_7,10/Q₅₀ ratio. Using these equations, estimates of base flow recession rates, Q_7,10, and streamflow reduction under drought conditions can be made for small, ungaged basins across a wide range of physiography.     

Evaluating the Slope‐Area Method to Accurately Identify Stream Channel Heads in Three Physiographic Regions

Estimation of stream channel heads is an important task since ephemeral channels play a significant role in the transport of sediment and materials to perennial streams. The slope‐area method utilizes digital elevation model (DEM) and related information to develop slope‐area threshold relationships used to estimate the position of channel heads in the watershed. A total of 162 stream channel heads were mapped across the three physiographic regions of Alabama, including the Southwestern Appalachians (51), Piedmont/Ridge and Valley (61), and Coastal Plains (51). Using Geographic Information System and DEM, the local slope and drainage area for each mapped channel head was calculated and region‐specific models were developed and evaluated. Results demonstrated the local slope and drainage area had an inverse and strong correlation in the Piedmont/Ridge and Valley region (r² = 0.71) and the Southwestern Appalachian region (r² = 0.61). Among three physiographic regions, the weakest correlation was observed in the Coastal Plain region (r² = 0.45). By comparing the locations of modeled channel heads to those located in the field, calculated reliability and sensitivity indices indicated model accuracy and reliance were weak to moderate. However, the slope‐area method helped define the upstream boundaries of a more detailed channel network than that derived from the 1:24,000‐scale National Hydrography Dataset, which is commonly used for planning and regulatory purposes.     

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Simulated Evapotranspiration and Streamflow over Texas Using the WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID Modeling Framework

This study assesses a large‐scale hydrologic modeling framework (WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID) in terms of its high‐resolution simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow over Texas (drainage area: 464,135 km²). The reference observations used include eight‐day ET data from MODIS and FLUXNET, and daily river discharge data from 271 U.S. Geological Survey gauges located across a climate gradient. A recursive digital filter is applied to decompose the river discharge into surface runoff and base flow for comparison with the model counterparts. While the routing component of the model is pre‐calibrated, the land component is uncalibrated. Results show the model performance for ET and runoff is aridity‐dependent. ET is better predicted in a wet year than in a dry year. Streamflow is better predicted in wet regions with the highest efficiency ~0.7. In comparison, streamflow is most poorly predicted in dry regions with a large positive bias. Modeled ET bias is more strongly correlated with the base flow bias than surface runoff bias. These results complement previous evaluations by incorporating more spatial details. They also help identify potential processes for future model improvements. Indeed, improving the dry region streamflow simulation would require synergistic enhancements of ET, soil moisture and groundwater parameterizations in the current model configuration. Our assessments are important preliminary steps towards accurate large‐scale hydrologic forecasts.     

FORESTS AND OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH STREAMFLOWS IN EAST TEXAS1

Effects of proportion of watersheds in forest and watershed physiographic factors on mean annual streamflow (1965-76), median flow, and 12 flood flow characteristics were regionally analyzed for 19 unregulated streams in East Texas. Annual streamflow increased with decreasing proportion of forest area. Differences in annual streamflow between full forest cover and bare watersheds could be as much as 200 mm. Other things being equal, the minimum watershed area required to generate 0.142 cm (5 cfs), a criterion used by the U.S. Corps of Engineering in regulating dredge and fill activity for water pollution abatement in East Texas streams, is 70 km² (27 mi²). Of the 31 physio-climatic parameters analyzed, watershed area, percent forest area, shape index, spring precipitation, and annual temperature were the most significant in affecting streamflow characteristics in East Texas. Using 2-3 of these five variables, all of the 14 streamflow characteristics can be estimated with accuracy ranging from acceptable to excellent levels.     

EFFECT OF SULFOMETURON METHYL ON GROUND WATER AND STREAM QUALITY IN COASTAL PLAIN FOREST WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Sulfometuron methyl [methyl 2-[[[[4,6-dimethly 2-(pyrimidinyl) a-mino] carbony l]amino] sulfonyl] benzoate] was applied by a ground sprayer at a maximum labeled rate of 0.42 kg ha^-1 a.i. to a 4 ha Coastal Plain flatwoods watershed as site preparation for tree planting. Herbicide residues were detected in Streamflow for only seven days after treatment and did not exceed 7 mg m^-3. Sulfometuron methyl was not detected in any stormflow and was not found in any sediment (both bedload and suspended). Sampling of a shallow ground water aquifer, > 1.5 m below ground surface, did not detect any sulfometuron methyl residues for 203 days after herbicide application. Lack of herbicide residue movement was attributed to low application rates, rapid hydrolysis in acidic soils and water and dilution in streamflow.     

Estimating Contributions of Nitrate and Herbicides From Groundwater to Headwater Streams,Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain,United States1

Abstract: Groundwater transport often complicates understanding of surface‐water contamination. We estimated the regional flux of nitrate and selected herbicides from groundwater to nontidal headwater streams of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (New Jersey through North Carolina) based on late‐winter or spring base‐flow samples from 174 streams. Sampled streams were selected randomly, and flux estimates are based on resulting population estimates rather than on empirical models, which have been used previously for similar estimates. Base‐flow flux in the estimated 8,834 headwater streams of the study area are an estimated 21,200 kg/day of nitrate (as N) and 5.83, 0.565, and 20.7 kg/day of alachlor, atrazine, and metolachlor (and selected degradates), respectively. Base‐flow flux of alachlor and metolachlor is <3% of the total base‐flow flux of those compounds plus degradates. Base‐flow flux of nitrate and herbicides as a percentage of applications is typically highest in well‐drained areas and lowest in areas with abundant poor drainage and anoxic conditions. In Coastal Plain watersheds of Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, <2% of applied nitrogen reaches headwater streams as base flow. On the Delmarva Peninsula part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, however, more than 10% of such applications are transported through groundwater to streams, and base‐flow nitrate flux represents 70% of total nitrogen flux in headwater streams.     

RELATION OF MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY IMPAIRMENT TO CATCHMENT CHARACTERISTICS IN NEW JERSEY STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: The level of macroinvertebrate community impairment was statistically related to selected basin and water-quality characteristics in New Jersey streams. More than 700 ambient biomonitoring stations were chosen to evaluate potential and known anthropogenic effects. Macroinvertebrate communities were assessed with a modified rapid-bioassessment approach using three impairment ratings (nonimpaired, moderately impaired, and severely impaired). Maximum-likelihood multiple logistic-regression analysis was used to develop equations defining the probability of community impairment above predetermined impairment levels. Seven of the original 140 explanatory variables were highly related to the level of community impairment. Explanatory variables found to be most useful for predicting severe macroinvertebrate community impairment were the amount of urban land and total flow of municipal effluent. Area underlain by the Reading Prong physiographic region and amount of forested land were inversely related to severe impairment. Nonparametric analysis of variance on rank-transformed bioassessment scores was used to evaluate differences in level of impairment among physiographic regions and major drainage areas simultaneously. Rejection of the null hypothesis indicated that the levels of impairment among all six physiographic regions and five major drainage areas were not equal. Physiographic regions located in the less urbanized northwest portion of New Jersey were not significantly different from each other and had the lowest occurrence of severely impaired macroinvertebrate communities. Physiographic regions containing urban centers had a higher probability of exhibiting a severely impaired macroinvertebrate community. Analysis of major drainage areas indicates that levels of impairment in the Atlantic Coastal Rivers drainage area differed significantly from those in the Lower Delaware River drainage area.     

A Geospatial Methodology to Identify Locations of Concentrated Runoff from Agricultural Fields

A geospatial methodology has been developed that utilizes high resolution lidar‐derived DEMs to help track runoff from agricultural fields and identify areas of potential concentrated flow through vegetated riparian areas in the Coastal Plain of Virginia. Points of concentrated flow are identified across 74 agricultural fields within the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. On average, 70% of the surface area of the agricultural fields analyzed drains through less than 20 m of the field margin, and on average 81% of the field surface area drains through 1% or less of the field margin. Within the riparian buffer, locations that were predicted by the geospatial model to have high levels of concentrated flow were found to exhibit evidence of channelization. Results indicate that flow concentration and channelized flow through vegetated riparian areas may be common along the margin of agricultural fields, resulting in vegetated riparian areas that are less effective at sediment trapping than assumed. Additional results suggest that the regulations governing the location and width of vegetated riparian may not be sufficient to achieve goals for reducing sediment and nutrient runoff from nonpoint agricultural sources. Combined with the increasing availability of lidar‐derived DEMs, the geospatial model presented has the potential to advance management practices aimed at reducing nonpoint source pollution leaving agricultural fields.     

Evaluation of Ground‐Water and Surface‐Water Exchanges Using Streamflow Difference Analyses1

Abstract: In the karstic lower Flint River Basin, limestone fracturing, jointing, and subsequent dissolution have resulted in the development of extensive secondary permeability and created a system of major conduits that facilitate the exchange of water between the Upper Floridan aquifer and Flint River. Historical streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations located in Albany and Newton, Georgia, were used to quantify ground‐water and surface‐water exchanges within a 55.3 km section of the Flint River. Using data from 2001, we compared estimates of ground‐water flux using a time adjustment method to a water balance equation and found that these independent approaches yielded similar results. The associated error was relatively large during high streamflow when unsteady conditions prevail, but much lower during droughts. Flow reversals were identified by negative streamflow differences and verified with in situ data from temperature sensors placed inside large spring conduits. Long‐term (13 years) analysis showed negative streamflow differentials (i.e., a losing stream condition) coincided with high river stages and indicated that streamflow intrusion into the aquifer could potentially exceed 150 m³/s. Although frequent negative flow differentials were evident, the Flint River was typically a gaining stream and showed a large net increase in flow between the two gages when examined over the period 1989‐2003. Ground‐water contributions to this stream section averaged 2‐42 m³/s with a mean of 13 m³/s. The highest rate of ground‐water discharge to the Flint River occurred during the spring when regional ground‐water levels peaked following heavy winter and spring rains and corresponding rates of evapotranspiration were low. During periods of extreme drought, ground‐water contributions to the Flint River declined.     

Identifying Riparian Buffer Effects on Stream Nitrogen in Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds

Within the Southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain of the U.S., numerous freshwaters and estuaries experience eutrophication with significant nutrient contributions by agricultural non-point sources (NPS). Riparian buffers are often used to reduce agricultural NPS yet the effect of buffers in the watershed is difficult to quantify. Using corrected Akaike information criterion (AIC_c) and model averaging, we compared flow-path riparian buffer models with land use/land cover (LULC) models in 24 watersheds from the SE Coastal Plain to determine the ability of riparian buffers to reduce or mitigate stream total nitrogen concentrations (TNC). Additional models considered the relative importance of headwaters and artificial agricultural drainage in the Coastal Plain. A buffer model which included cropland and non-buffered cropland best explained stream TNC (R ² = 0.75) and was five times more likely to be the correct model than the LULC model. The model average predicted that current buffers removed 52 % of nitrogen from the edge-of-field and 45 % of potential nitrogen from the average SE Coastal Plain watershed. On average, 26 % of stream nitrogen leaked through buffered cropland. Our study suggests that stream TNC could potentially be reduced by 34 % if buffers were adequately restored on all cropland. Such estimates provide realistic expectations of nitrogen removal via buffers to watershed managers as they attempt to meet water quality goals. In addition, model comparisons of AIC_c values indicated that non-headwater buffers may contribute little to stream TNC. Model comparisons also indicated that artificial drainage should be considered when accessing buffers and stream nitrogen.