MACROSCALE HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT STUDIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UMTED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A macroscale hydrologic model is developed for regional climate assessment studies under way in the southeastern United States. The hydrologic modeling strategy is developed to optimize spatial representation of basin characteristics while maximizing computational efficiency. The model employs the “grouped response unit” methodology, which follows the natural drainage pattern of the area. First order streams are delineated and their surface characteristics are tested so that areas with statistically similar characteristics can be combined into larger computational zones for modeling purposes. Hydrologic response units (HRU) are identified within the modeling units and a simple three‐layer water balance model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is executed for each HRU. The runoff values are then convoluted using a triangular unit hydrograph and routed by Muskingum‐Cunge method. The methodology is shown to produce accurate results relative to other studies, when compared to observations. The model is used to evaluate the potential error in hydrologic assessments when using GCM predictions as climatic input in a rainfall‐runoff dominated environment. In such areas, the results from this study, although limited in temporal and spatial scope, appear to imply that use of GCM climate predictions in short term quantitative analyses studies in rainfall‐runoff dominated environments should proceed with caution.     

Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin,Nevada1

Carroll, Rosemary W.H., Greg Pohll, David McGraw, Chris Garner, Anna Knust, Doug Boyle, Tim Minor, Scott Bassett, and Karl Pohlmann, 2010. Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin, Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):554-573. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00434.x Abstract: An integrated surface water and groundwater model of Mason Valley, Nevada is constructed to replicate the movement of water throughout the different components of the demand side of water resources in the Walker River system. The Mason Valley groundwater surface water model (MVGSM) couples the river/drain network with agricultural demand areas and the groundwater system using MODFLOW, MODFLOW’s streamflow routing package, as well as a surface water linking algorithm developed for the project. The MVGSM is capable of simulating complex feedback mechanisms between the groundwater and surface water system that is not dependent on linearity among the related variables. The spatial scale captures important hydrologic components while the monthly stress periods allow for seasonal evaluation. A simulation spanning an 11-year record shows the methodology is robust under diverse climatic conditions. The basin-wide modeling approach predicts a river system generally gaining during the summer irrigation period but losing during winter months and extended periods of drought. River losses to the groundwater system approach 25% of the river’s annual budget. Reducing diversions to hydrologic response units will increase river flows exiting the model domain, but also has the potential to increase losses from the river to groundwater storage.     

Drought Resilience of the California Central Valley Surface‐Ground‐Water‐Conveyance System1

Abstract: A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts ranging between 25 and 50%, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70%. Stream‐to‐aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30‐year model‐simulated future. However, the overall response to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground‐water insurance to sustain California during extended dry periods.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR FOREST LAND MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A growing concern for environmental quality paralleled with increasing demands on our forest resources has prompted the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to evaluate simulation modeling as a technique for analyzing management decisions in terms of their environmental effects. The evaluation focused on a system of integrated models developed at the University of Washington which simulate processes and activities within the forest ecosystem. A major part of the system is a hydrologic model which predicts changes in discharge, stream temperature, and concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved oxygen based on information generated by other models representing intensive management practices. The evaluation consisted of applying the system to a 72,000 acre tract of forest land, validating the models with two years of discharge and water quality data from a 93,000 acre watershed, and determining the pertinence of hydrologic modeling for management purposes. Results show several potential uses of hydrologic modeling for forest management planning, especially for analyzing the effects of timber harvesting strategies on water quality.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

WATER ALLOCATION POLICY MODELING FOR THE DONG NAI RIVER BASIN: AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE1

Abstract: Recent water sector reforms and increased scarcity and vulnerability of water resources, combined with declining public funding available for large scale infrastructure investment in the sector, have led to a greater awareness by the Government of Vietnam for the need to analyze water resource allocation and use in an integrated fashion, at the basin scale, and from a perspective of economic efficiency. In this study we focus on the development, application, and selected policy analyses using an integrated economic hydrologic river basin model for the Dong Nai River Basin in southern Vietnam. The model framework depicts the sectoral structure and location of water users (agriculture, industry, hydropower, domestic, and the environment) and the institutions for water allocation in the basin. Water benefit functions are developed for the major water uses subject to physical limitations and to constraints of system control and policy. Based on this modeling framework, we will analyze policies that can affect water allocation and use at the basin level, including both basin-specific and general macroeconomic policies.     

COMPUTER PROGRAMMING FOR MAXIMUM MODELING INFORMATION TRANSFER1

Abstract: The diffuculty in understanding the listings of many available hydrologic models programmed in FORTRAN is a serious limitation to their verification and use. By expending more effort in creating clearly written computer programs, more information can be transferred to those interested in modeling hydrologic process. The use of simulation languages to produce more understandable program listings and increase the flow of informationg is recommended. An example is presented in which surface water runoff from storms on small rural watershedds is modeled.     

河流水质模型中确定水文参数的经验方法探讨

河流水质模型中,要涉及一些重要的水文参数。本文探索了用经验方法推求水文参数的问题。文中论证了公式的合理性,提出了能表达河流断面形状特性的指标(β),建议了根据不同情况确定公式中参数的原则,还分析了公式的适用条件。研究成果对提高水质模型的适用性和精度都具有重要意义。     

ASSESSMENT OF REMOTE SENSING INPUT TO HYDROLOGIC MODELS1

Remotely sensed variables such as land cover type and snow-cover extent can currently be used directly and effectively in a few specific hydrologic models. Regression models can also be developed using physiographic and snow-cover data to permit estimation of discharge characteristics over extended periods such as a season or year. Most models, however, are not of an appropriate design to readily accept as input the various types of remote sensing parameters that can be obtained now or in the future. Because this new technology has the potential for producing hydrologic data that has significant information content on an areal basis, both inexpensively and repetitively, effort should be devoted now to either modifying existing models or developing new models that can use these data. Minor modifications would at least allow the remote sensing data to be used in an ancillary way to update the model state variables, whereas major structural modifications or new models would permit direct input of the data through remote sensing compatible algorithms. Although current remote sensing inputs to hydrologic models employ only visible and near infrared data, model modification or development should accommodate microwave and thermal infrared data that will be more widely available in the future.     

A Hydrologic/Water Quality Model Applicati11

Abstract: This paper presents a procedure for standard application of hydrologic/water quality models. To date, most hydrologic/water quality modeling projects and studies have not utilized formal protocols, but rather have employed ad hoc approaches. The procedure proposed is an adaptation and extension of steps identified from relevant literature including guidance provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This protocol provides guidance for establishing written plans prior to conducting modeling efforts. Eleven issues that should be addressed in model application plans were identified and discussed in the context of hydrologic/water quality studies. A graded approach for selection of the level of documentation for each item was suggested. The creation and use of environmental modeling plans is increasingly important as the results of modeling projects are used in decision‐making processes that have significant implications. Standard modeling application protocols similar to the proposed procedure herein provide modelers with a roadmap to be followed, reduces modelers’ bias, enhances the reproducibility of model application studies, and eventually improves acceptance of modeling outcomes.     

ECOSYSTEM MODELING OF A FORESTED RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: A present concern in decision making processes for forest land use is the environmental effects of land use activities on water, air, and the land itself. Criteria for evaluating the magnitude and detriment of environmental impacts are not definite since it is often difficult to isolate a particular activity as the cause of a particular impact. Instead, interactions between various forest practices must be considered along with their integrated impacts. In order to provide an effective decision tool, the College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, is modeling the forest ecosystem of the Snohomish River Basin located in the Cascade Mountains of western Washington. The project consists of a general system model comprised of subsystem models dealing with product conversion processes, forest production processes, recreation supply processes, wildlife and fisheries supply processes, and the interactions of these processes with water and the atmosphere. The system model is interfaced with a computerized multiple player management game which enables land managers, manufacturing managers, and regulation agency personnel to make management decisions and respond to indications of lack of environmental control. Responses of the hydrologic system to various management decisions are simulated by the water subsystem model. The responses being considered include surface flow quantity and water quality. The model emphasizes the monitoring of non-point as well as point source impacts rather than predicting short-term hydrographs. The significance of impacts vary with land use patterns and the goals of the game player. Therefore, the model has flexible resolution and is able to predict hydrologic conditions for both large and small scale. The water subsystem model responds to management decisions by interpreting the effects of management options selected by game players for 40-acre cells within the Basin. The model then determines which streams are immediately affected, defines the watersheds contributing to these streams, and extracts from a resource data bank the information needed to define model parameters. Using these parameters and precipitation inputs, mean flow discharge on a montly and annual basis is calculated for the impactcd sub watersheds as well as 21 major watersheds of the Basin. Water quality responses predicted for these watersheds include suspended sediment concentration, temperature increases due to stream exposure, dissolved oxygen concentrations, the effects of fertilization on nitrogen content, biocide and herbicide effects, and residues from product conversion processes.     

LAKE CHAMPLAIN BASIN NONPOINT SOURCE PHOSPHORUS ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Existing land use data were used to estimate nonpoint source phosphorus loads to Lake Champlain (Vermont/New York/Quebec) in a loading function model that combined P concentration coefficients with regional hydrologic data. The estimates were verified against monitored loading data, then used to assess the relative magnitudes of contributions from major land uses and regions of the Lake Champlain Basin. The Basin is comprised of 62 percent forest, 28 percent agricultural land, 3 percent urban land, and 7 percent water. The best-fit model estimated an annual total P load of 457 mt/year, which did not differ significantly from the 458 metric tons/year measured for an average hydrologic year, and accurately predicted loads from major tributaries. Agriculture contributes 66 percent of the annual nonpoint source P load to Lake Champlain; urban and forest land contribute 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Because agricultural land contributes most nonpoint source P to Lake Champlain, load reduction effort must deal with agricultural sources. However, because the urban 3 percent of the basin contributes 18 percent of the estimated load, high load reduction efficiencies might be achieved by addressing urban sources. This assessment clearly demonstrated the relationship between land use and P loads in the Lake Champlain Basin, a prerequisite for policy-makers to endorse a P management strategy requiring changes in land use and management.     

MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING COPPER RUNOFF IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed for managing copper runoff in urban watersheds that incorporates water quality characterization, watershed land use areas, hydrologic data, a statistical simulator, a biotic ligand binding model to characterize acute toxicity, and a statistical method for setting a watershed specific copper loading. The modeling framework is driven by export coefficients derived from water quality parameters and hydrologic inputs measured in an urban watershed's storm water system. This framework was applied to a watershed containing a copper roof built in 1992. A series of simulations was run to predict the change in receiving stream water chemistry caused by roof aging and to determine the maximum copper loading (at the 99 percent confidence level) a watershed could accept without causing acute toxicity in the receiving stream. Forecasting the amount of copper flux responsible for exceeding the assimilation capacity of a watershed can be directly related to maximum copper loadings responsible for causing toxicity in the receiving streams. The framework developed in this study can be used to evaluate copper utilization in urban watersheds.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING WITH REMOTELY SENSED DATABASES1

ABSTRACT: An integrated remotely sensed database was used as the basis for a hydrologic and sediment transport modeling effort for an agricultural area of western Puerto Rico. Classified spectral images of airborne radiance data provided ground cover information and were used in conjunction with topographic and soils data to guide model construction and provide input to the water balance and sediment yield simulations. Runoff and sediment discharge from hydrologically homogeneous regions were routed through the drainage network and combined at the basin outlet. The model was used to simulate four years of observed sediment discharge from the basin. Relative contributions to the total sediment yield of forested and agricultural areas were determined and compared.     

ESTIMATING WATER BUDGET IN A REGIONAL AQUIFER USING HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Integrated water resources management is important, especially in watersheds where substantial interactions exist between the ground and surface water sources. This management warrants the need for reliable estimates of both an overall basin water budget and hydrologic fluctuations between ground water and surface water sources. The objectives of this study were to estimate the total water budget and to simulate the effects of the management of water in the Big Lost River Basin in Idaho. The study used the FIPR Hydrological Model (FHM), a hydrological model developed by the University of South Florida for the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR). The FHM is an integrated model that simulates the full water budget of the surface and ground water systems. It has two public domain components: Hydrological Simulation Program ‐ FORTRAN (HSPF) and Modular Three‐Dimensional Finite‐Difference Ground Water Flow Model (MODFLOW). This study quantified the hydrologic fluxes between ground water and surface water and determined a comprehensive and accurate water budget for the Big Lost River. The study showed an annual amount of 10.44 m3/sec leaves the basin and never to return to the system. The study is useful in developing and calculating the annual water budget in the Big Lost River, and this process should be applicable to estimating water budgets in other basins.     

LAW,HYDROLOGY, AND SURFACE-WATER SUPPLY IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Law and hydrology are inextricably woven together in the pattern of water resource development in the west. The former attempts to allocate a limited and valuable resource as the latter tries to define the limits of the resource. In the past an inadequate data base has made hydrologic estimates difficult and political factors have pushed the law into possibly conflicting commitments in the Colorado River Basin. Through the use of tree-ring research, hydrologists have produced a more definitive data base and placed water allocations such as the Colorado River Compact of 1922 in a clearer long-term perspective. This data base leads to the conclusion that the surface-water supply is about 13.5 million acre-feet per year. This hydrologic limit must be apportioned within an existing legal framework - the “Law of the River.” As development approaches the resource limit in the Upper Colorado River Basin, lawyers and hydrologists must act in concert toward the equitable solution of allocation and reallocation problems.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

SIMULATION OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES IN WATER QUALITY WITHIN A HYDROLOGIC UNIT1

Water quality must be considered in the development and planning aspects of water resource management. To accomplish this, the decision-maker needs to have at his disposal a systematized procedure for simulating water quality changes in both time and space. The simulation model should be capable of representing changes in several parameters of water quality as they are influenced by natural and human factors impinging on the hydrologic system. The objective of this work is two-fold. The first goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of developing and utilizing a water quality simulation model in conjunction with a hydrologic simulation model. The model represents water quality changes in both time and space in response to changing atmospheric and hydrologic conditions and time-varying waste discharges at various points in the system. This model has been developed from and verified with actual field data from a prototype system selected for this purpose. The second aim is to set forth procedural guidelines to assist in the development of water quality simulation models as tools for use in the quality-quantity management of a hydrologic unit.     

INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk-based estimation of project-dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short-term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.     

TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF UPPER GILA RWER DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: Effective planning for use of water resources requires accurate information on hydrologic variability induced by climatic fluctuations. Tree-ring analysis is one method of extending our knowledge of hydrologic variability beyond the relatively short period covered by gaged streamflow records. In this paper, a network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies is used to reconstruct annual river discharge in the upper Gila River drainage in southeastern Arizona and southwestern Arizona since A.D. 1663. The need for data on hydrologic variability for this semi-arid basin is accentuated because water supply is inadequate to meet current demand. A reconstruction based on multiple linear regression (R²=0.66) indicates that 20th century is unusual for clustering of high-discharge years (early 1900s), severity of multiyear drought (1950s), and amplification of low-frequency discharge variations. Periods of low discharge recur at irregular intervals averaging about 20 years. Comparison with other tree-ring reconstructions shows that these low-flow periods are synchronous from the Gila Basin to the southern part of the Upper Colorado River Basin.