COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD MAGNITUDES ON SMALL STREAMS IN GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type HI analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant. Comparison of regression-estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years (1966 to 1985) and 10 years (1976 to 1985) of record at different sites of annual peak record indicate that the regression-estimates are not significantly different from the observed data. Comparison of rainfall-runoff-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 10 years and 20 years of annual peak record indicated that the model-simulated estimates are significantly and not significantly different, respectively. The biasedness probably is due to a “loss of variance” in the averaging procedures used within the model and the short length of record as indicated in the 10 and 20 years of record. The comparison of map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff indicate that the simulated estimates are not significantly different. Comparison of “improved” map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff data indicate that the simulated estimates are different. The average adjustment factor suggested by Lichty and Liscum to calculate the “improved” map-model overestimates in Georgia by an average of 20 percent for three recurrence intervals analyzed.     

ANALYSIS AND EXTRACTION OF LOW FLOW RECESSION CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: It is important to extract and assess low flow recession characteristics for water resources planning in the upper reaches of streams. However, it is very difficult to express synthetically the low flow recession characteristics for a stream flow. In this paper, first a new method of constructing the master recession curve based on the exponential expression is proposed and applied with the restriction that there are no regulation or diversion structures in the upper reaches above the measurement station. Daily precipitation and stream flow were used for the analysis. Second, analysis for a recession constant was conducted and the relationship between the recession constant and low flow and/or geology was qualitatively examined. In conclusion, the application of the proposed method indicated that it is objective and useful for constructing the master recession curve. It became apparent that the recession constant of a master recession curve may be defined as the total index of low flow characteristics. In addition, it was found that baseflow value increases in the order of Paleozoic, Mesozoic, Tertiary, and Quaternary.     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS OF ESTIMATING MEAN WATERSHED SLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Ten topographic analysis methods were employed to estimate watershed mean slopes for 13 small forested watersheds (32 to 131 mi²) in East Texas. Of the ten methods employed, the mean slope curve is the most accurate but also the most tedious and laborious one. The method can be simplified by measuring only the lengths of five contours and the areas between these contours within the watershed with little loss of its accuracy. Watershed slopes estimated by the contour length method, the grid contour method, the systematic slope sampling method, and the simplified contour length method are satisfactory for general purposes and relatively simple. The watershed circumference-stream length method, the length-width axis method, the Justin method, and the regression plane method are not suitable for estimating watershed slopes in East Texas without modification.     

EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASE FLOW OF SELECTED SOUTH-SHORE STREAMS,LONG ISLAND,NEW YORK1

ABSTRACT: Hydrograph analysis of six streams on the south shore of Long Island indicates that eastward urbanization during the last three decades has significantly reduced base flow to streams. Before urbanization, roughly 95 percent of total annual stream flow on Long Island was base flow. In urbanized southwestern Nassau County, storm water sewerage, increased impervious surface area, and sanitary sewerage have reduced base flow to 20 percent of total stream flow. In an adjacent urbanized but unsewered area in southeastern Nassau County, base flow has decreased to 84 percent of total annual stream flow. In contrast, base flow in two streams in rural areas has remained virtually constant, averaging roughly 95 percent of total annual flow throughout the 1955-70 study period. Double-mass curve analysis of base flow as a percentage of total annual stream flow indicates that (1) changes in stream flow characteristics began in the early 1960's in the sewered area and in the late 1960's in the later urbanized, unsewered area, and (2) a new equilibrium has been established between the streams in the sewered area and the new hydrologic characteristics of their urbanized drainage basins.     

INSTANTANEOUS PEAK FLOW ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR NEWFOUNDLAND STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: A procedure of estimating instantaneous flood flows for various return periods on the Island of Newfoundland is presented. The procedure is based on annual maximum instantaneous flows rather than annual maximum daily-mean flows, as the latter requires the conversion of estimated daily-mean flows into instantaneous flows. Regression equations were developed for each of three homogeneous regions for the desired return periods. The flood flow estimation capability of the presented procedure is demonstrated to be better than any other currently available procedure on the Island.     

REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING INSTREAM FLOW REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: Present guidelines for selecting a method to determine instream flow requirements and evaluating the validity of the results from a particular method are insufficient. This paper contributes to the efforts of researchers to develop a guide and critique for instream flow methods. A review of instreani flow methods and recommendations for their application is supplemented by a summary of a comparison of four independent analyses. The four analyses: the Physical Habitat Simulation System approach of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Montana Method by Tennant, and two methods by Orsborn (Maximum Spawning Area Flow and Maximum Spawning Area) represent resource intensive and simplistic data collection and analysis methods. Each analysis was used to independently determine flows to support spawning by chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in Willow Creek, Alaska. Results of these analyses indicate that each method can be used independently or collectively to generate instream flow recommendations, if calibrated to the site or area studied. Once adjusted to the species and basin of interest, methods similar to the Montana and two Orsborn methods should be used to determine flow recommendations for areas where competition for water is minimal. The Instream Flow Incremental Methodology or similar methods should be applied when competition for water is keen or when detailed evaluations of the responses of species/life phases to flow variations are required.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENT ON FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO NEW JERSEY STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Parts of the Raritan River basin in central New Jersey have undergone increasing development over the last several decades. The increasing population relies on the region's ground water and surface water sources for its residential, commercial, and industrial water supply. Urbanization, regionalized wastewater-treatment facilities, stream channel alterations, and interbasin transfers of water can all affect water availability. This pilot study was conducted to determine whether significant trends exist in the base-flow and overland-runoff characteristics of streams in two subbasins with different percentages of urban/built-up land (Anderson et at., 1976). Changes in flow characteristics that could indicate future reductions in safe water yield of the Raritan River basin were examined. Flow and flow variability of the steams draining these two subbasins have increased over time. Many of the flow measures studied experienced pronounced trend shifts about 1960. The cause of these changes cannot be readily determined from the data, nor is it clear whether the increased flow variability lies outside the natural range of flow variability of the streams draining the subbasins.     

A COMPARISON OF METHODS FOR CALCULATION OF RADAR-RAINFALL HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: We compared two interpolation schemes for calculation of hourly accumulation of radar-rainfall. The schemes are: (1) the Advection Method, and (2) the Space-Time Kriging Method. The performance of the methods is investigated using numerical simulation experiments. Space-time evolution of rainfall fields is generated from a stochastic model. The generated fields are sampled following typical radar scanning strategies, and the investigated schemes are applied to obtain accumulated rainfall patterns. The statistical results and a visual analysis of the graphical images suggest that it is advisable to use an interpolation scheme for radar observations even when storm velocity is not high. The Space-Time Kriging Method provides the best results for low wind velocity. The Advection Method has the smallest standard deviation and mean absolute error, and preserves well the true rainfall pattern for high wind velocity.     

A COMPARISON OF TRANSFORMATION METHODS FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The SMEMAX transformation, its modified versions and power transformation were applied to 55 long-term records of annual maximum flood flows tested previously for independence, homogeneity and completeness. Even though SMEMAX transformation reduced the coefficient of skewness to near zero for flood data, their distribution was not a true normal distribution. In almost all cases, the coefficient of kurtosis was quite different from 3.0 of the normal distribution. Empirical criteria showed that SMEMAX transformation performed well only for 40 (70 percent) of the 55 stations tested. Its performance level dropped, especially for stations which had both the coefficient of skewness and kurtosis greater than 3.0 and 10.0, respectively. Power transformation was generally better in transforming the flood data to a normal distribution. It performed well for 50 (90 percent) of the 55 stations tested. The coefficient of skewness in case of the data transformed by power transformation was much closer to the zero value than in the case of SMEMAX transformed series. The SMEMAX transformation and its two modified versions yielded identical results when flood frequency analysis was performed. Computationally, all three methods were equally simple and easy to apply for flood frequency analysis. In some cases, the coefficient of kurtosis for the transformed distributions obtained both by SMEMAX and power transformations deviated farther from that for the normal distribution than for the parent distribution.     

A DESIGN FOR LOW FLOW CONTROLS1

The determination of the total flow of an alluvial stream by rating a gaging station with a current meter may not be sufficiently accurate for a water yield study. If a large part of the total water yield consists of low flow, a means for accurate measurement must be employed. A technique for the design of a low flow control is described in this paper. Eight low flow controls have been designed on streams of the Southern Plains Watershed Research Center, Chickasha, Oklahoma. Field calibration measurements from these installations have been used to verify the design technique.     

A COMPARISON OF TWO METHODS FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two major objectives in operating the multireservoir system of the Upper Colorado River basin are maximization of hydroelectric power production and maximization of the reliability of annual water supply. These two objectives conflict. Optimal operation of the reservoir system to achieve both is unattainable. This paper seeks the best compromise solution for an aggregated reservoir as a surrogate of the multireservoir system by using two methods: the constraint method and the method of combined stochastic and deterministic modeling. Both methods are used to derive the stationary optimal operating policy for the aggregated reservoir by using stochastic dynamic programming but with different objective functions and minimum monthly release constraints. The resulting operating policies are then used in simulated operation of the reservoir with historical inflow records to evaluate their relative effectiveness. The results show that the policy obtained from the combination method would yield more hydropower production and higher reliability of annual water supply than that from the constraint-method policy.     

MORPHOLOGIC RESPONSE OF SUBALPINE STREAMS TO TRANSBASIN FLOW DIVERSION1

ABSTRACT: Flow has been diverted from Rocky Mountain streams for many years with little documentation of the impacts on physical form and biological function of the losing stream system. This study addresses whether differences in form can be detected in subalpine step-pool, plane bed, or pool-riffle channels and linked to changes in flow regime from diversion. Total annual discharge was reduced between 20 and 60 percent and average annual peak flow was reduced up to 45 percent in the subalpine systems assessed; channels were diverted between 20 and 100 years. Expected impacts include reduced conveyance and changes in vegetation growth patterns because formerly active surfaces are colonized by riparian species, effectuating shrinking channel capacity. In this study, reduced channel width is used as an indicator of morphologic response. Observed reductions in width, ranging from 35 to 50 percent at some sites, resulted not only from vegetation invasion of stable surfaces but also from the development of an inset beside former cut banks. This observation, however, was restricted to wider pool-riffle channels with gravel bars. Outside of these areas, morphologic changes were either subtle or absent. The absence of widespread response is attributed primarily to periodic “flooding” of the diverted channel. During wetter-than-average years when excess water is available, minimal flow is diverted and the hydrograph resembles a free-flowing regime. The release of high flow to the natural channel potentially offsets changes in form incurred during “dry” periods. The stable nature and structure of subalpine channels also contributes to the absence of reduced capacity.     

AMMONIA IN TEXAS STREAMS DURING LOW FLOW FROM MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER1

ABSTRACT: An investigation of treated municipal wastewaters discharged into Texas streams was conducted to determine the probable effect of concentrations of ammonia in receiving waters, based on existing data on ammonia levels which are lethal to various species of fish. Recorded data for most Texas cities were analyzed. Based on existing toxicity criteria for ammonia of 1/10 TL_m= 0.31 mg/1 NH₃-N, employing known discharge flow rates, and 7-day, 5-year or 7-day, 10-year low flows in Texas streams, appreciable numbers of sites were found to pose a threat to various species of fish. Using the bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) as a median tolerance limit species, data from 65 cities which met the aforecited requirements, were analyzed. Those included a total of 92 wastewater effluents. Sixty-nine percent of those cities and 70% of their effluents exceeded the 0.31 mg/1 NH₃-N limit in the stream below the discharge point. Thirty-seven percent of the cities equaled or exceeded the 96-hour TL_m concentration limit of 3.1 mg/1 ammonia. Based on the 10 mg/1 NO₃-N standard for intake water for potable supplies, 32% of the effluents resulted in a stream concentration which exceeded 10 mg/1, assuming a straight conversion of NH₃-N to NO₃-N.     

A COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS FOR MEASURING RECENT RATES OF SEDIMENT ACCUMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The determination of sediment accumulation rates is important in understanding how these materials are affecting lakes and reservoirs ecosystems. In this study three methods were used to estimate sediment accumulation rates in the impounded backwater lakes behind Lock and Dam Nos. 8 and 9 on the upper Mississippi River. The three methods were: 1) a “spud” survey, 2) a survey of bottom contours, and 3) the use of fallout cesium-137. The field use of these three methods of determining sediment accumulation and the potential errors and merits involved in each method are discussed. The results from the field study in backwater areas along the upper Mississippi River showed the survey of bottom contour method gave the lowest rate of sediment deposition and the ¹³⁷Cs method gave the highest rates. Sediment accumulation rates from 0 to 7.8 cm per year were measured in the study area. All three methods are useful and have unique characteristics for determining rates and patterns of sediment accumulation. Thus the choice of a method to be used in a sediment survey is dependent on the type of information needed and the time available.     

COMPARISON OF TWO AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR MONTHLY STREAM FLOW GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two autoregressive models for monthly stream flow generation are compared based on the reproduction of the historical record in terms of several important statistics such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness coefficient, correlation coefficient, and the reservoir storage components. In the comparison, both theoretical considerations and practical applications are employed to evaluate the performance of each model.     

PLANNING LEVEL ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF RESERVOIRS FOR WATER SUPPLY AND FLOW AUGMENTATION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE1

: In general, the choice among reservoirs for water supply or flow augmentation is a multiobjective problem. Choices are based in part on the yield available from water supply reservoirs or, in the case of flow augmentation reservoirs, on the increase in low flows at downstream locations. Detailed estimates of these effects may be too costly for basin planning purposes. Thus this paper presents methods for rapid estimation of those quantities for New Hampshire. For water supply reservoirs, a composite empirical relation between Y95 (the draft available 95 percent of the time) and storage ratio, S*, is developed from previous studies in the region. For flow augmentation reservoirs, empirical relations between S* and degree of regulation, R*, are applied to each upstream regulating reservoir. Values of regulation arc then summed and divided by the mean flow at the downstream reach of interest. This parameter, (ΓR)*, is then related to increase in flow available 95 percent of the time by an empirical relation.     

COMPARISON OF REGRESSION AND TIME-SERIES METHODS FOR SYNTHESIZING MISSING STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: Regression and time-series techniques have been used to synthesize and predict the stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage from information at the upstream Pohono Bridge gage on the Merced River near Yosemite National Park. Using the available data from two time periods (calendar year 1979 and water year 1986), we evaluated the two techniques in their ability to model the variation in the observed flows and in their ability to predict stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage for the 1979 time period with data from the 1986 time period. Both techniques produced reasonably good estimates and forecasts of the flow at the downstream gage. However, the regression model was found to have a significant amount of autocorrelation in the residuals, which the time-series model was able to eliminate. The time-series technique presented can be of great assistance in arriving at reasonable estimates of flow in data sets that have large missing portions of data.     

EVALUATION OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING STREAM WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A TRANSIENT MODEL FROM STOCHASTIC DATA1

ABSTRACT: In this study the estimation of parameters in water quality models represented by linear first order partial differential equations is investigated. Two sets of simulated input-output data, one with input noise and the other with output measurement error, were used. The parameters were estimated by a gradient technique (Bard's method) and a pattern search technique. The results indicate that the output measurement error significantly affects the values of parameter estimates as compared to the noise added to the input. Bard's method consistently gave results with a smaller sum of square value.     

A COMPARISON OF SOME DYNAMIC,LINEAR AND POLICY ITERATION METHODS FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

Within the past few years, a number of papers have been published in which stochastic mathematical programming models, incorporating first order Markov chains, have been used to derive alternative sequential operating policies for a multiple purpose reservoir. This paper attempts to review and compare three such mathematical modeling and solution techniques, namely dynamic programming, policy iteration, and linear programming. It is assumed that the flows into the reservoir are serially correlated stochastic quantities. The design parameters are assumed fixed, i.e., the reservoir capacity and the storage and release targets, if any, are predetermined. The models are discrete since the continuous variables of time, volume, and flow are approximated by discrete units. The problem is to derive an optimal operating policy. Such a policy defines the reservoir release as a function of the current storage volume and inflow. The form of the solution and some of the advantages, limitations and computational efficiencies of each of the models and their algorithms are compared using a simplified numerical example.     

COMPARING SOME METHODS OF ESTIMATING MEAN AREAL RAINFALL1

ABSTRACT: A comparison of 13 different methods of estimating mean areal rainfall was made on two areas in New Mexico, U.S.A., and one area in Great Britain. Daily, monthly and yearly rainfall data were utilized. All methods, in general, yielded comparable estimates, especially for yearly values. This suggested that a simpler method would be preferable for estimating mean areal rainfall in these areas.