LIMITS ON THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAME OF REFERENCE IN WATER RESOURCE DECISION-MAKING1

Study of water resource decision-making in Massachusetts demonstrates the existence of many institutional constraints such as the established fee system for consulting engineers, the funding of certain agencies, the institutionalization of equity concerns, overrepresentation of interests, and incompatibility of agency goals. These institutional constraints are attributable in part to certain broadly-based value-orientations such as the American pragmatic tradition. However, various lines of evidence indicate that these constraints are less important than other factors in the etiology of decisional outcomes. The outcomes of the decision processes were found to be at variance with the decisions studied, a fact leading to the conclusion that choice of decisions for study should be given more attention. The authors conclude that institutional constraints are important if one is interested in studying how decisions are made, but that what actually happens in the long run cannot be easily ascertained by studying either institutions or the decision-making process. They suggest the need for more research utilizing the incremental theories of Carl Lindblom and the side-effect theories of Albert O. Hirschman.     

THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A CASE FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE PLANNING AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT1

This paper describes the successful application of a multiobjective planning framework, incorporating substantial public involvement, to a major water resources decision involving intense confilcts. The study was initiated to help resolve more than a decade of controversy over a project proposed to control flooding and provide regulatory storage in the Phoenix, Arizona, area. The public was actively involved in the development of study goals and the specification of acceptable tradeoffs between multiple objectives. A wide range of structural and nonstructural alternatives was formulated and evaluated in relation to these objectives, and broad-based support was developed for a new plan. Reasons for the successful outcome are discussed, as well as implications for water resources planning under the new Federal Principles and Guidelines.     

COST SHARING IN TRANSITION: THE CASE OF PLAN 6, CENTRAL ARIZONA PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: In the past, development of Federal water resource projects depended heavily or exclusively on Federal financing of construction costs. However, pressures on the Federal budget, environmental issues, and the notion that there are economic efficiency gains when beneficiaries of Federal water resource projects increase their cost share are causing changes. The case of the Central Arizona Project Plan 6 is a noteworthy example of the transition to more non-Federal participation in water resource development. This is because the non-Federal financing is to be provided for a project already under construction. The negotiation and terms of the Plan 6 financing agreement between the Department of the Interior and multiple interests in Arizona are used as an example of how Federal water project cost sharing is in a state of transition. The negotiation process is described, a financial analysis is provided, and the terms of the agreement and policy issues that were deliberated in the Executive Branch of the Federal Government are discussed.     

THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATE PLANS USING CONCORDANCE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-DIMENSION SCALING1

ABSTRACT The Central Arizona Water Control Study (CAWCS) was initiated by the Bureau of Reclamation in 1978. The study attempted to identify and evaluate alternate water management schemes for Central Arizona. By 1981 a set of seven plans had been developed and for each an assessment on a number of economic, environmental, and social factors had been undertaken. This paper offers a formal procedure, using concordance analysis and multi-dimension scaling, to compare alternate plans using multiple factors in order to produce a classification of the attractiveness of the alternatives. Empirical data for the CAWCS are used to clarify the procedure. The results of the formal analysis are compared to those produced by the CAWCS. A critique of the formal procedure is offered, and it is suggested that it may have utility to assist in the collection of data as well as in the search for a best plan. The procedure allows a number of different types of sensitivity tests to be conducted.     

SYSTEMS ENGINEERING AND WATER RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN NEVADA1

ABSTRACT The Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada has provided ample opportunity for mission oriented water resources research, and, to some extent, application of those research results. Past studies of the ground-water systems have resulted in the construction of a direct electrical analog, two digital simulation models, a Hele-Shaw fluid analog, a linear programming model, and two dynamic programming models. The work accomplished has dealt with the problems of groundwater management, waste water reclamation and artificial recharge, and conjunctive use water management. The current study is attempting to integrate previous results and new work into a detailed and realistic conjunctive use water resource management model to achieve system efficiency under more than one criteria. The research team is interdisciplinary in nature and encompasses the physical and social sciences.     

OF DOGS AND TAILS: WATER POLICY AND SOCIAL POLICY IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: The general relationship between water policy and social policy in the Western United States is examined by utilizing the example of the Arizona Groundwater Management Act. Too often, this is a relationship which goes largely unexamined, at least in any explicit way. In areas of perceived or real water scarcity, it is often the case that the setting of water policy severely constrains the social policy. Too many fundamental social policy issues are left to unstated assumptions through such a procedure. But, this paper asks, should not the social policy lead, and the water policy follow? In other words, in this relationship, which is the dog, and which is the tail?     

INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS FOR THE COLORADO RIVER1

ABSTRACT: In many interstate river basins, the institutional arrangements for the governance and management of the shared water resource are not adequately designed to effectively address the many political, legal, social, and economic issues that arise when the demands on the resource exceed the available supplies. Even under normal hydrologic conditions, this problem is frequently seen in the Colorado River Basin. During severe sustained drought, it is likely that the deficiencies of the existing arrangements would present a formidable barrier to an effective drought response, interfering with efforts to quickly and efficiently conserve and reallocate available supplies to support a variety of critical needs. In the United States, several types of regional arrangements are seen for the administration of interstate water resources. These arrangements include compact commissions, interstate councils, basin interagency committees, interagency-interstate commissions, federal-interstate compact commissions, federal regional agencies, and the single federal administrator. Of these options, the federal-interstate compact commission is the most appropriate arrangement for correcting the current deficiencies of the Colorado River institution, under all hydrologic conditions.     

FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

A SYSTEMS RESOURCES APPROACH TO CITIZEN PARTICIPATION: THE CASE OF THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT: The thesis of this paper is that the citizen participation process provides necessary, but not sufficient conditions to affect substantive change in federal water resource management agencies' planning and decisionmaking. That is, in its present form, the citizen participation process has been observed to occur outside of the normal decision arenas of federal resource management agencies. The paper reviews concepts of citizen participation and defines some theoretical problems inherent with them. Then, a strategy for the structuring of a citizen participation process is proposed. This strategy is based upon the notion that citizen support for federally sponsored programs are essential if such projects are to be implemented. Therefore, an approach which integrates citizen valves with those held by other institutions and the agency is suggested. In conclusion, the relevancy of actively developing and including citizen input to the water resource planning process is illustrated by a discussion of three cases of the Corps of Engineers and Urban Studies planning process, in different metropolitan regions.     

LAKE LEVEL CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT - A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The frequent high water levels in Chisago Chain of Lakes, located in east-central Minnesota, have caused extensive flood damages. Recent floods raised the concern of the local property owners and they pressured the Chisago County Board of Managers to initiate a study of alternative lake control levels. A study was carried out to identify potential flood control alternatives, screen out the most promising feasible alternatives, and recommend the most cost-effective flood control measure. Several flood control alternatives were considered - eight of them were analyzed and evaluated in detail. A statistical method was used to estimate the expected annual flood damages under existing and future conditions. The effect of all proposed control measures on the annual flood damage reductions (benefits) were determined. Detailed benefit/cost analyses were carried out to evaluate the economic feasibility of alternatives. The effect of potential flood control measures on the environment was also studied. The economic analysis of the most cost-effective alternative did not strongly support artificial lake level control, therefore the decision-making authorities were even more firm in their position to maintain the present condition and chose the Null Alternative as the most suitable alternative.     

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Historically, the main objective of water resources development has been economic efficiency, and the technique for its evaluation has been benefit-cost analysis. Gradually other objectives have emerged, and these in order of their emergence are regional income redistribution, environmental quality and social well-being. These multi-objectives have given rise to multifarious problems, and have made the planning process much more complex than ever before. The different objectives are not mutually exclusive, and, hence, contributions to one can only be made at the expense of others. Trade-off studies between different objectives are difficult to make. It is suggested that one way to overcome this difficulty could be to design a system to perform optimally in terms of one objective, subject to a specified level of performance of the other, which in effect becomes a constraint. The paper also discusses the pros and cons of the desirability of public participation in our decision-making processes, and the necessity of developing social sciences models to aid water planning and management.     

ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD PLAIN MAPPING1

ABSTRACT: Components contributing to uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe of a mapped flood plain are identified and examined to determine their relative importance. First-order uncertainty analysis is used to provide a procedure for quantifying the magnitude of uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe. Application of the procedure indicated that one standard deviation of uncertainty in flood plain inundation width was about one third of the mean computed inundation width for several flood population-flood geometry combinations. Suggested mapping criteria, which directly incorporate uncertainty estimates, are given. While these criteria are more suitable for use in developing areas than in flood plains that have had extensive development, the analysis procedure can be used to accommodate property owners who challenge the validity of estimated flood fringe boundaries. Use of uncertainty analysis in flood plain mapping should enhance the credibility of the final plan.     

FLOODPLAIN ANALYSIS,SIMPLIFIED VS. COMPLEX METHODS: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The accurate and reliable determination of floodplains, floodway boundaries, and flood water elevations are integral requirements of Flood Insurance Studies. These studies are intended to be used for determining the flood insurance rates. Therefore, the accuracy of the water surface profiles are important. To ensure the high degree of accuracy, the HUD Flood Insurance Administration has developed standards which must be met in the analysis of water surface profiles. A somewhat less accurate study is required for the preparation of Flood Emergency Plans. As part of the flood insurance studies of eight locations in the State of North Dakota, various flood hazard and floodplain information reports were reviewed. The hydrologic and hydraulic analyses, especially the computation of the 100-year water surface profiles, were completed using both simplified and complex hydraulic computation methods. Significant differences were found (1 to 3 feet) between the profiles computed by the SCS simplified method and those computed by HEC-2 computer program. However, the floodplain boundaries determined by both methods were found to be similar. Approximate methods are recommended for rapid determination of the floodplain, floodway boundaries, and inundation area mapping, while sophisticated computer programs (HEC-2) are recommended to be used for developing areas where the 100-year flood elevation has a significant impact on the cost of land development.     

WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT: THE CASE FOR RIVER BASIN AUTHORITIES1

ABSTRACT: There is a lamentable absence of comprehensive planning in the current cursade to improve water quality. A serious shortcoming is the lack of evaluation of the effects of waste water treatment upon environmental quality. At some point in time the public may ask what they have obtained for their money. The nature of pollution in a river basin demands a coordinated attack against it. Engineering and economic criteria suggest that a properly empowered river basin authority would be the logical organization to plan and operate a water quality management system. Several forms of such authorities have operated effectively and efficiently for many years in the United States and other industrialized countries. Examples of successful river basin authorities and their advantages and methods of operation are discussed.     

PLANNERS AS A PUBLIC IN WATER RESOURCES PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAMS1

This paper suggests a number of benefits in identifying urban and regional planners as a public in public participation programs of water resources planning studies. A perspective on public participation is presented. Recent trends and developing concepts are identified: emphasis on the need to coordinate urban and regional planning activities with water resources planning, increasing system complexity, the goals and objectives orientation of planning, planning for multi-objectives, the evaluation of a broader range of alternatives, and the consideration of water alternatives as only one set of measures to further society's aspirations. One way to assist in capitalizing on these trends is to seek out participation of those in other planning efforts who are involved in planning but on a different level. Because of their intimate knowledge of an areas history, growth and development, political climate, local perceptions of needs and desires, and major problems and issues they are able to contribute a great deal of insight in making the water resources planning effort more responsive at the local level. The paper describes one of the first major efforts at working-level public-planner contact which was carried out as part of the Susquehanna River Basin Study. A regional survey team comprised of an engineer and an economist from a federal agency and a state water resources planner met informally with planners, city managers, and local planning commissions to discuss issues related to water resources and the growth and development of local areas. This effort while only part of the overall public participation program yielded a number of benefits and if expanded and refined would be a very useful experience in other studies.     

INTEGRATING SOCIAL ANALYSIS INTO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: SOME EMERGING TRENDS IN THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT: While federal water resources laws and regulations require social analysis, no one workable formula exists for integrating it into water resources planning. Two primary problems in integrating social analysis into planning are examined; making trade-offs between policy acceptability and theoretical competence, and managing social analysis in planning. For illustration, the article builds on emerging trends within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. It concludes by observing that creative application of social theory to policy problems along with innovative data gathering techniques are the primary routes to managing these problems.     

THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A simple, black-box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER PLANNING: A CRITIQUE OF THEORY,DOCTRINE, AND PRACTICE1

ABSTRACT. Water development planning has virtually since its beginnings over one hundred fifty years ago utilized a variety of devices for involving segments of the public. But a new insistence for increased public participation, particularly at the Federal level, has stimulated re-examination of objectives and methods for relating water planning to citizen interests and preferences. Involved is partly a recommitment to democratic symbols, partly a recognition that segments of society have been overlooked, and partly a reaction to the pressures of confrontation and demonstration. The rhetoric and polemics of participation have often implied a kind of “town-meeting” process of decision, difficult at best in a nation of 200 million. In water planning more emphasis has been placed on listening to citizens, which has meant providing opportunities for influentials to express their views and preferences. A more adequate approach would seem to require identification of all who are significantly affected by plans and proposals (even though they may not perceive then-interest). But gaining greater participation does not make the planning job easier. It may increase tension and conflict; it may require difficult choices; and it can alter existing power relationships and generate changes with considerable consequences for the agency and its programs.     

INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFERS IN RIPARIAN STATES: A CASE STUDY OF GEORGIA1

ABSTRACT: Under the riparian doctrine of eastern states, transfers of water to nonriparian lands and, thus, to different river basins, are only possible if the natural flow theory has been modified to allow for reasonable use. Even this adaptation is too nebulous to provide water managers and water users with certainty regarding water transfers. To provide a more precise mechanism for allocating water, 14 eastern states have adopted some form of administrative permitting process. Of these, five states statutorily allow for interbasin transfers of water. Thus far, no states have successfully issued permits for interbasin water transfers but Georgia and South Carolina are positioned to do so. Whether the permitting process will deter court action may rest on the ability of affected parties to negotiate an equitable agreement.