Estimating paternity with spatial behaviour and DNA fingerprinting in the striped plateau lizard, Sceloporus virgatus (Phrynosomatidae)

The association between spatial proximity and paternity was studied in a population of the striped plateau lizard, Sceloporus virgatus. The relationship between estimated mating success and male phenotypic traits was examined for a sample of 55 males. DNA samples were obtained from 13 female-offspring families. The males with the closest spatial proximity to each female were tested as possible sires within each family. Fingerprinting with two multilocus hypervariable minisatellite probes revealed a strong correspondence between male-female spatial proximity and actual paternity. Paternity could be assigned for 72 of the 100 hatchlings. Most hatchlings with identifiable sires were attributed to a male with the highest category of spatial proximity to the mother. However, there was a low to moderate level of multiple paternity within clutches, and for some clutches probable sires could not be identified even though the most likely behavioural candidates were tested. Thus, nonterritorial males or other males lacking strong social and spatial relationships with females may achieve some degree of reproductive success. Analysis of mating success revealed that male success increased with body size, up to a point beyond which larger size conferred no advantage. Received: 7 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 16 June 1997     

Maternal investment in Antarctic fur seals: evidence for equality in the sexes?

Studies of the otariids (fur seals and sea lions), a highly sexually dimorphic group, have provided conflicting evidence of differential maternal expenditure in male and female offspring and, thus, suggestions that they conform to predictions of investment theory are equivocal. Since the mid-1970s, a diversity of research on Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) including studies of their reproductive ecology, lactation energetics, and foraging behaviour have been conducted at Bird Island, South Georgia that have resulted in one of the more complete and diverse data sets for any species of otariid. These long-term data were reviewed to determine whether there was any evidence to support that differential maternal expenditure occurred in Antarctic fur seals. Most of the data examined were collected during five consecutive austral summers from 1988 through 1992 and included years in which local food resources were abundant and scarce. We were unable to detect differences in the sex ratios of pups at birth or sex-biased differences in growth rates estimated from serial data, the number of foraging trips made, the duration of attendance ashore, diving behaviour, suckling behaviour, or milk consumption in any year and in the duration of foraging trips or age at weaning in 2 of 3 years. In addition, we found no evidence of greater reproductive costs between mothers with sons or daughters relative to their reproductive performance the following year. In contrast, sex-biased differences were only found in the duration of foraging trips in 1990, the age at weaning in 1988, and consistently in growth rates estimated from cross-sectional data. We suggest that differential maternal expenditure does not occur in Antarctic fur seals because male pups probably do not gain greater benefit from additional maternal expenditure than female pups. After weaning, males experience a period of rapid juvenile growth over 3–4 years during which time body mass nearly trebles. This growth will almost certainly be dependent upon available food resources then rather than on any maternal expenditure received over the first 4 months of life and, thus, the assumptions of the Trivers and Willard hypothesis are probably invalid for Antarctic fur seals. Received: 10 July 1996 / Accepted after revision: 3 March 1997     

Adjustment of parental effort in the puffin; the roles of adult body condition and chick size

 We examined the adjustment of parental effort of puffins by switching 20-day-old chicks randomly between parents of known body condition. Among unmanipulated birds mass gain (5–20 days) and mass of 20-day-old chicks was positively correlated with the body condition of parents at day 6. During the first 5 days after chick switching 28% (n = 55) of the parents deserted their foster chick. Parents which deserted their foster chick originally had a chick of their own that was smaller than that of those which did not desert their foster chick. Whether parents deserted their foster chick was also negatively related to the size of the foster chick. The mass of the foster chick was more important than the size of the parents' own chick in determining the desertion rate of chicks. The mass gain of the foster chick during the first 5 days after switching was positively related to the body condition of foster parents and also positively related to the mass of the foster parents' own chick, but negatively related to the size of the foster chick. The results suggest that puffins adjust their parental effort according to both their own body condition and the size of the chick. The latter may indicate the chick's prospect of survival and recruitment to the population. Received: 20 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 27 October 1996     

Parentage and sex allocation in the facultatively polygynous ant Myrmicatahoensis

Most social groups have the potential for reproductive conflict among group members. Within insect societies, reproduction can be divided among multiple fertile individuals, leading to potential conflicts between these individuals over the parentage of sexual offspring. Colonies of the facultatively polygynous ant Myrmicatahoensis contain from one to several mated queens. In this species, female sexuals were produced almost exclusively by one queen. The parentage of male sexuals was more complex. In accordance with predictions based on worker sex-allocation preferences, male-producing colonies tended to have low levels of genetic relatedness (i.e., high queen numbers). Correspondingly, males were often reared from the eggs of two or more queens in the nest. Further, over half of the males produced appeared to be the progeny of fertile workers, not of queens. Overall investment ratios were substantially more male biased than those predicted by genetic relatedness, suggesting hidden costs associated with the production of female sexuals. These costs are likely to include local resource competition among females, most notably when these individuals are adopted by their maternal nest. Received: 3 March 1998 / Accepted after revision: 20 June 1998     

Queen control of egg fertilization in the honey bee

The study investigated the precision with which honey bee queens can control the fertilization of the eggs they lay. Because males and workers are reared in different-sized cells, the honey bee is one of the few Hymenoptera in which it is possible for the experimenter to know which type of egg a queen “intends” to lay. Eggs were collected from both worker and drone (male) cells from four honey bee colonies. Ploidy of the embryo was determined using polymorphic DNA microsatellites. All 169 eggs taken from worker cells were heterozygous at at least one microsatellite locus showing that the egg was fertilized. All 129 eggs taken from drone cells gave a single band at the B124 locus, strongly suggesting haploidy. These data show that honey bee queens have great, and quite possibly complete, ability to control the fertilization of the eggs they lay. Data from the literature suggest that in two species of parasitoid Hymenoptera (Copidosoma floridanum, Colpoclypeus florus) females have great, but not complete, ability to control fertilization. Received: 23 December 1997 / Accepted after revision: 17 May 1998     

Food access, brood size and filial cannibalism in the fantail darter, Etheostoma flabellare

We compared the occurrence of filial cannibalism in fed and starved male fantail darters (Etheostoma flabellare). All males in the experiment consumed eggs, and 56% ate all of their eggs. A male's initial body condition did not explain the number of eggs that he ate. Neither did non-fed males eat more eggs than fed males. Fed males were able to maintain better body condition during the experiment, but the change in body condition also depended on the number of eggs eaten. Thus, males who ate more eggs were able to maintain better body condition.The most important determinant of whether or not a male ate all of his eggs was his initial egg number. Males with small egg masses ate all of their eggs whereas males with large egg masses were only partial cannibals. There was, however, no difference in the total number of eggs eaten by total and partial cannibals. We conclude that eggs are only partially eaten for energetic reasons. We also suggest that small egg masses are completely consumed because the costs of caring for a small egg mass may exceed the expected reproductive benefits of a small egg mass. Received: 26 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 2 November 1996     

Ranging of songs with the song type on use of different cues in Carolina wrens: effects of familiarity

Male territorial song birds are usually spaced far apart and most often hear conspecific song after it has been degraded by propagation through the environment. Their ability to use the degradation of songs to assess the distance of a singing rival without approaching (called ranging) presumably increases the efficiency of defending a territory. In order to assess degradation in a song the receiver needs to compare the characteristics of the received song to its characteristics at the source or at different distances. Earlier experiments on ranging in species with song repertoires have suggested that prior familiarity with the particular song type is necessary for ranging. Here I show that male Carolina wrens (Thryothorus ludovicianus) can use either temporal or spectral characteristics for ranging song types which they were unlikely to have heard previously. Playbacks consisting of only one song prevented subjects' close-range experience with the loudspeaker, and flights beyond the loudspeaker provided direct evidence for over-assessment of distance when songs were degraded. Because ranging of songs was not affected by the degree of familiarity with the song type, this experiment provides no evidence that song repertoires hinder ranging in Carolina wrens, as suggested by Morton's ranging hypothesis. Instead, at least approximate ranging of songs is evidently possible by assessment of degradation in general features of a species' songs. Received: 9 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 15 February 1997     

A same-sex stepparent shortens a prebreeder's duration on the natal territory: tests of two hypotheses in Florida scrub-jays

Prebreeders of the Florida scrub-jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens) are less likely to be found on their natal territories with a same-sex stepparent than with parents or an opposite-sex stepparent. We tested two models that had been proposed to account for this sexual asymmetry. The dominance hypothesis states that stepparents perceive same-sex prebreeders as competitors, primarily for a mate, so behave aggressively toward them. The pair-formation hypothesis states that prebreeders remain home to pair eventually with the opposite-sex stepparent. Predictions from these two models were tested by analyses from a quarter-century of records on a study population at Archbold Biological Station and by new behavioral field observations at the Station. Results clearly rejected the latter and strongly supported the former hypothesis. No prediction from the pair-formation hypothesis was confirmed: no pairing by a prebreeder of either sex has ever occurred with a stepparent; remaining home was equally frequent in age-one males with stepmothers and genetic mothers, and in females with stepfathers and genetic fathers; and the same results were found in age-two prebreeders. By contrast, the data strongly supported the dominance hypothesis. Field data showed higher aggression rates by stepfathers to male prebreeders and stepmothers to female prebreeders than by parents to their same-sex genetic offspring. Fewer age-one males remained home with a stepfather than with the genetic father, and the same was found for age-one females with a stepmother and genetic mother; at age two, the effect occurred only in female prebreeders. The two hypotheses make different predictions about prebreeders with two stepparents versus with both parents, thus providing a critical test. The dominance hypothesis correctly predicted decreased duration at home by age-one males and females; data for age-two females were in the direction of predicted difference but not significant; and, as in other tests, no effect was found for age-two males. We propose that age-two male prebreeders remain home despite elevated aggression from stepfathers because these prebreeders retain the possibility of budding from or inheriting the natal territory. Received: 16 July 1997 / Accepted after revision: 26 June 1998     

Parentage and paternal care: consequences of intersexual selection in Savannah sparrows?

Empirical relationships between parentage and male parental care are commonly interpreted in the context of life-history models that consider increased offspring survivorship as the only benefit of paternal effort. However, indirect benefits associated with male care can also influence a male's response to cuckoldry: if females allocate paternity according to their prior experience with male parental care, it may pay for males to provision extra-pair young in early broods. Here, I assess the relationship between first-brood parentage and paternal care in a population of Savannah sparrows (Passerculussandwichensis) where a male's fertilization success in the second brood appears to be influenced by his prior parental performance. Based on the multi-locus DNA fingerprinting of 17 first broods, male feeding effort was influenced by parentage (percent of brood resulting from within-pair fertilizations) but not by brood size, male mating status (monogamous versus polygynous), timing of breeding (hatching date), structural size (wing length) or condition (mass). Males provided more care to broods that contained few within-pair young. This result supports the idea that males provision young to increase their future mating success, but alternative hypotheses involving male quality and timing of breeding cannot be excluded. Received: 13 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 February 1997     

Disease resistance: a benefit of sociality in the dampwood termite Zootermopsis angusticollis (Isoptera: Termopsidae)

The benefit of sociality in relation to disease susceptibility was studied in the dampwood termite Zootermopsis angusticollis. Although contact with high concentrations of fungal conidia is lethal, the survivorship of nymphs exposed to spore suspensions ranging from 6 × 10⁶ to 2 × 10⁸ spores/ml of the fungus Metarhizium anisopliae increased with group size. The survivorship (measured as LT₅₀) of isolated individuals ranged from 3.0 to 4.8 days, but infected nymphs living in groups of 10 and 25 individuals survived significantly longer (5.6–8.3 and 5.6–9.1 days, respectively). In most cases, there were no significant differences in the survival distributions of the 10- and 25-termite groups. When nymphs were infected with concentrations of 7 × 10¹–7 × 10⁴ spores/ml and allowed to interact with healthy nestmates, fungal infections were not contracted by the unexposed termites. Moreover, infected termites benefitted from social contact with unexposed nestmates: their survival rates were significantly higher than those of infected termites living with similarly infected nestmates. Allogrooming, which increased in frequency during and after exposure to conidia, appeared to remove potentially infectious spores from the cuticle, thus increasing termite survivorship. These results suggest that allogrooming plays a crucial role in the control of disease and its death hazard in termites. The infection-reducing advantage of group living may have been significant in the evolution of social behavior in the Isoptera. Received: 18 March 1998 / Accepted after revision: 31 May 1998     

Relatedness, polyandry and extra-group paternity in the cooperatively-breeding white-browed scrubwren (Sericornis frontalis )

We used DNA fingerprinting to examine the genetic parentage and mating system of the cooperatively breeding white-browed scrubwren, Sericornis frontalis, in Canberra, Australia. Our analyses revealed a remarkable variety of mating tactics and social organization. Scrubwrens bred in pairs or multi-male groups that consisted of a female and two or more males. Females were always unrelated to the pair male or alpha (dominant) male. Among multi-male groups we found three different mating tactics. Firstly, when alpha and beta (subordinate) males were unrelated, they usually shared paternity in the brood. This resulted in both males gaining reproductive benefits directly. Secondly, when beta males were not related to the female but were related to the alpha males, beta males sired offspring in some broods. In this situation, beta males gained reproductive benefits both directly and potentially indirectly (through the related alpha male). Thirdly, when beta males were related to the female or both the female and alpha male, they remained on their natal territory and did not sire any offspring. Thus beta males gained only indirect reproductive benefits. Overall, when group members were related closely, the dominant male monopolized reproductive success, whereas when the members were not related closely the two males shared paternity equally. This positive association between monopolization of reproduction and relatedness is predicted by models of reproductive skew, but has not been reported previously within a single population of birds. Other cooperatively breeding birds with both closely related and unrelated helpers may show a similar variety of mating tactics. Finally, we found that extra-group paternity was more common in pairs (24% of young) than in multi-male groups (6%), and we discuss three possible reasons for this difference. Received: 21 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 14 December 1996     

Trade-off between fitness components in males of the polygynous butterfly Callophrys xami (Lycaenidae): the effect of multiple mating on longevity

The differential costs of mating paid by males and females influence the nature and strength of sexual selection. In butterflies, males invest a relatively large amount of time and resources in each mating, but male survival costs of mating have not been demonstrated. I present the results of experiments designed to measure the effect of different aspects of mating on male longevity in the polygynous butterfly Callophrys xami. In experiment 1, I compared the longevity of pairs of males that produced similar amounts of spermatophore, but that mated at different rates, a different numbers of times, and that produced spermatophores at different rates, and found that the longevity of ”low-mating-rate” males was not different from that of ”high-mating-rate” males. In experiment 2, the longevity of virgin males was not significantly different from that of multiply mated males. In experiment 3, I used resource-limited males resulting from experimental food limitation of last-instar larvae; resource-limited virgin males lived significantly more days than resource-limited multiply mated males. Since ecological costs of mating (e.g., disease transmission, predation risk) were excluded in the experiment, diminished male longevity was a product of physiological costs of sexual interactions. These results suggest that the cost of ejaculate production is an important cause of longevity reduction when there are resource limitations; however, the role of other possible physiological costs of mating in longevity reduction is still unknown. Received: 21 March 2000 / Accepted: 26 August 2000     

Damage-inducibility of primary and secondary metabolites in the wild parsnip (Pastinaca sativa)

Summary. Induction of secondary metabolites to herbivore damage is a widespread phenomenon among plants and serves to enhance resistance by reducing suitability or increasing toxicity of foliage. Post-damage responses of primary metabolites are less well known; reductions in primary metabolites may increase resistance by decreasing palatability or nutritional suitability for herbivores or by potentiating toxicity of secondary metabolites. In this study, we examined response to simulated herbivory in Pastinaca sativa, the wild parsnip, in both primary and secondary metabolites. We found that induction of secondary metabolites in response to damage is largely restricted to a single class of compounds, the furanocoumarins. These prooxidant compounds are known to be toxic to a wide variety of insect herbivores. The only primary metabolite that responded to damage was total soluble protein, which increased significantly 24 h after damage. After 24 h, the correlation between total furanocoumarins and total sugars was significant and negative (r = − 0.697). This correlation likely reflects an independent response of sugar to damage, rather than a diversion of resources into furanocoumarin production, inasmuch as this correlation at 3 h, after furanocoumarin induction had taken place, was not significant. In other secondary metabolite pathways, damage produced a significant decline in farnesene and a C-16 unsaturated fatty acid, 7,10,13-hexadecatrienoic acid, each of which may potentiate the furanocoumarin defense response. Farnesene may enhance photooxidative activation of the furanocoumarins and 7,10,13-hexadecatrienoic acid may serve as a precursor to jasmonic acid, a key hormone in regulating induction responses. With few key exceptions, quantities of both primary and secondary metabolites in wild parsnip foliage are unaffected by damage. Those that are affected may well play a role in resistance of parsnips to herbivores. Received 1 July 1998; accepted 28 September 1998.     

Dominance and the dynamics of phenotype-limited distribution in common cranes

We studied the behavior of 13 radiotagged cranes dispersing from a communal roost over days when they changed their main daily foraging area between consecutive days during two winter seasons. Individuals went to a new foraging zone when on the previous day their morning food intake had fallen below their mean morning food intake measured over the whole winter. Food intake on the day before a change in foraging area was positively correlated with dominance rank. Dominant cranes changed to new zones with higher numbers of birds and food density, while subordinate cranes went to new zones with lower numbers of birds. As a result, all birds increased their food intake over that of the previous day. Dominant cranes remained more faithful to their most preferred foraging zone, where they spent 69% of the mornings, while subordinate birds were more mobile, switching among zones frequently. Dominant birds left the roost later than subordinate birds on the days they changed to a new zone, which could be used to track the main departing flows. The results suggest that the dynamics that led to a truncated phenotype-limited distribution were determined by social dominance and food abundance, with dominant cranes shifting to a new zone to maintain their high intake levels and subordinates changing more frequently whenever their daily intake did not reach the minimum metabolic requirements. Received: 16 December 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 February 1997     

Control of reproduction in social insect colonies: individual and collective relatedness preferences in the paper wasp, Polistes annularis

Social insect colonies often have one or a few queens. How these queens maintain their reproductive monopoly, when other colony members could gain by sharing in the reproduction, is not generally known. DNA microsatellite genotyping is used to determine reproductive interests of various classes of colony members in the paper wasp, Polistes annularis. The relatedness estimates show that the best outcome for most individuals is to be the reproductive egg-layer. For workers, this depends on the sex of offspring: they should prefer to lay their own male eggs, but are indifferent if the queen lays the female eggs. The next-best choice is usually to support the current queen. As a rule, subordinates and workers should prefer the current queen to reproduce over other candidates (though subordinates have no strong preference for the queen over other subordinates, and workers may prefer other workers as a source of male eggs). This result supports the theory that reproductive monopoly stems from the collective preferences of non-reproductives, who suppress each other in favor of the queen. However, we reject the general hypothesis of collective worker control in this species because its predictions about who should succeed after the death of the present queen are not upheld. The first successor is a subordinate foundress even though workers should generally prefer a worker successor. If all foundresses have died, an older worker succeeds as queen, in spite of a collective worker preference for a young worker. The results support the previous suggestion that age serves as a conventional cue serving to reduce conflict over queen succession. Received: 3 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 22 September 1996     

Non-adaptive adoptions of nestlings in the colonial lesser kestrel: proximate causes and fitness consequences

We examined the causes, costs and benefits of adoption in the altricial lesser kestrel Falco naumanni. Specifically, we tested the intergenerational conflict hypothesis, proposed to explain adoption in some birds. Adoptions involved 76% of the nests and 51% of the nestlings at a mean age of 25 days (12 days before fledging). Nest-switching nestlings were not in poorer body condition, more parasitized or younger than their siblings, and body condition and prey delivery rates of their parents did not differ from those of other parents. In the foster nest, adopted nestlings did not benefit from higher feeding rates or a prolongation of the nestling period. They did not have fewer nest-mates or achieve higher rank within the new brood. Thus, adopted nestlings did not improve their body condition and survival. Adult lesser kestrels seemed unable to finely discriminate beween their own and alien chicks. Foster parents bore the cost of an increase of prey delivery rates, although it did not affect their survival or subsequent reproductive performance. Therefore, our results do not support the intergenerational conflict hypothesis, and suggest that adoption in this species is non-adaptive. Traditionally, the lesser kestrel bred in cliffs where movement among nest-sites was restricted. Nowadays, about half of the colonies are in tiled roofs which facilitate nest-switching by nestlings. The high rate of adoptions may thus be explained as reproductive errors associated with the recent occupation of a new breeding habitat. Received: 3 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 19 January 1997     

The relative roles of predation and sperm competition on the duration of the post-copulatory association between the sexes in the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus

In many species, post-copulatory mate guarding prevents other males from mating with the guarded female. In crabs, males stay with their mates to protect the female from predators because, in some species, mating occurs when she is soft and vulnerable after molting. I tested the relative roles of sperm competition and predation on the duration of the post-copulatory association in the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus. Unpaired females suffered greater predation mortality than paired females and males stayed with the female longer in the presence of predators than in their absence, suggesting that the post-copulatory association protects females during their vulnerable period. However, the association may also occur in blue crabs because of sperm competition since spermathecal contents of females in the field indicate that 12.4% mated twice. Females experimentally mated with two males contained both males ejaculates and each ejaculate had access to the unfertilized eggs, suggesting that the size of a male's ejaculate influences his fertilization rate in a multiply-mated female. Males stayed longest in response to a high risk of sperm competition. Longer post-copulatory associations allowed the first male's ejaculate to harden into a type of sperm plug, which limited the size of a second inseminator's ejaculate in a non-virgin female as compared with a virgin. Males passed larger ejaculates in the presence of rivals and when previous ejaculates were in the female spermathecae, another response to sperm competition. Larger ejaculates may need longer post-copulatory associations before a more effective sperm plug forms. Large males stayed with the female longer, which is consistent with their ability to pass larger ejaculates than small males and suggests that there may be costs to minimizing the duration of the post-copulatory association. In the field, associations last long enough to protect the female during her vulnerable phase and may ensure that the guarding male fertilizes the most eggs in the female, even if she remates. Thus, the post-copulatory association protects female blue crabs from additional inseminators as well as from predators. Received: 23 January 1996 / Accepted after revision: 9 November 1996     

Variation in the temporal and spatial use of signals and its implications for multimodal communication

The use of signals across multiple sensory modalities in communication is common in animals and plants. Determining the information that each signal component conveys has provided unique insights into why multimodal signals evolve. However, how these complex signals are assessed by receivers will also influence their evolution, a hypothesis that has received less attention. Here, we explore multimodal signal assessment in a closely related complex of island flycatchers that have diverged in visual and acoustic signals. Using field experiments that manipulated song and plumage colour, we tested if song, a possible long-range signal, is assessed before plumage colour in conspecific recognition. We find that divergent song and colour are assessed in sequence, and this pattern of sequential assessment is likely mediated by habitat structure and the extent of differences in signal characteristics. A broad survey of the literature suggests that many organisms from a wide range of taxa sequentially assess multimodal signals, with long-range signals attracting conspecifics for further assessment of close-range signals. Our results highlight the need to consider how signals are assessed when understanding multimodal signal evolution. Finally, given the results of our field experiments indicating sequential assessment of divergent song and colour in the recognition of conspecifics, we discuss the consequences of multimodal signal divergence for the origin of species, as changes in signals across different sensory modalities may influence the evolution of premating reproductive isolation.     

Low queen mating frequency in the seed-harvester ant Pogonomyrmex (Ephebomyrmex) pima: implications for the evolution of polyandry

The evolution of polyandry is a central problem in the study of insect mating systems, and both material and genetic benefits have been proposed to offset the presumed costs of multiple mating. Although most eusocial Hymenoptera queens mate with just one or occasionally two males, high levels of polyandry are exhibited by several taxa, including seed-harvester ants of the genus Pogonomyrmex. Previous studies of queen mating frequency in Pogonomyrmex have focused on monogynous (one queen per colony) species in the subgenus Pogonomyrmex. We performed a genetic mother–offspring analysis of mating frequency in Pogonomyrmex (Ephebomyrmex) pima, a queen-dimorphic species with dealate and intermorph queens that differ in colony structure (intermorph colonies contain multiple queens). Our results demonstrate that both dealate and intermorph queens of P. (E.) pima are typically single maters, unlike their congeners analyzed thus far. Polyandry appears to be a derived trait in Pogonomyrmex, but comparative tests between P. (E.) pima queen morphs and across the genus provide no evidence that it evolved as an adaptation to increase genetic diversity within colonies or to obtain more sperm, respectively.     

Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases. • Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases. • A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well. • US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources. • Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns. Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.