A simple numerical model for predicting organic matter decomposition in a fed-batch composting operation

Using dog food as a model of the organic waste that comprises composting raw material, the degradation pattern of organic materials was examined by continuously measuring the quantity of CO2 evolved during the composting process in both batch and fed-batch operations. A simple numerical model was made on the basis of three suppositions for describing the organic matter decomposition in the batch operation. First, a certain quantity of carbon in the dog food was assumed to be recalcitrant to degradation in the composting reactor within the retention time allowed. Second, it was assumed that the decomposition rate of carbon is proportional to the quantity of easily degradable carbon, that is, the carbon recalcitrant to degradation was subtracted from the total carbon remaining in the dog food. Third, a certain lag time is assumed to occur before the start of active decomposition of organic matter in the dog food; this lag corresponds to the time required for microorganisms to proliferate and become active. It was then ascertained that the decomposition pattern for the organic matter in the dog food during the fed-batch operation could be predicted by the numerical model with the parameters obtained from the batch operation. This numerical model was modified so that the change in dry weight of composting materials could be obtained. The modified model was found suitable for describing the organic matter decomposition pattern in an actual fed-batch composting operation of the garbage obtained from a restaurant, approximately 10 kg d(-1) loading for 60 d.     

Planning methodology for predicting spatial patterns of risk potential from industrial land uses

The nature of environmental risk is often determined by the location patterns of industrial firms in a locale. We develop a methodology for analyzing the capacity of toxics-generating industries to leave toxic residuals on the landscape, in the context of long-term master planning. To understand an area's risk profile, we first characterize the location pattern of risk-generating firms and develop ways to represent the risk potentials of these shapes. To this end, we develop a geometric approach for characterizing the spatial patterns of these clusters of dirty industries, using new measures for analyzing spatial densities and compactness. We then introduce context (i.e. actual zoning patterns, transportation corridors) and explain how this relates to the spatial patterns found. We illustrate this analytical method with application to Orange County, California, USA and point out how it affords a deeper understanding of the connections between industry and environmental risk. We end the article with a discussion of how these analytical methods might be used for land use planning.     

Field evaluation of a model for predicting nitrogen losses from drained lands

The N simulation model, DRAINMOD-N II, was field-tested using a 6-yr data set from an artificially drained agricultural site located in eastern North Carolina. The test site is on a nearly flat sandy loam soil which is very poorly drained under natural conditions. Four experimental plots, planted to a corn (Zea mays)-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-soybean (Glycine max.) rotation and managed using conventional and controlled drainage, were used in model testing. Water table depth, subsurface drainage, and N concentration in drain flow were measured and meteorological data were recorded continuously. DRAINMOD-N II was calibrated using the data from one plot; data sets from the other three plots were used for model validation. Simulation results showed an excellent agreement between observed and predicted nitrate-nitrogen (NO(3)-N) losses in drainage water over the 6-yr period and a reasonable agreement on an annual basis. The agreement on a monthly basis was not as good. The Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (EF) for monthly predictions was 0.48 for the calibration plot and 0.19, 0.01, and -0.02 for the validation plots. The value of the EF for yearly predictions was 0.92 for the calibration plot and 0.73, 0.62, and -0.10 for the validation plots. Errors in predicting cumulative NO(3)-N losses over the 6-yr period were remarkably small; -1.3% for the calibration plot, -8.1%, -2.8%, and 4.0% for the validation plots. Results of this study showed the potential of DRAINMOD-N II for predicting N losses from drained agricultural lands. Further research is needed to test the model for different management practices and soil and climatological conditions.     

The effects of military tank traffic on prairie: A management model

The effect of various frequencies and seasons of military tank traffic on native mixed-grass prairie was examined in a randomized and replicated field experiment. Vegetation (in 10×10 m plots) was subjected to tank traffic at the following rates: (a) one pass per day of training from May until August; (b) one pass per day in May and June; (c) one pass per day in July and August; (d) one pass every three weeks from May until August; (e) zero (control). Species composition and the amount of bare ground were found to vary significantly with traffic frequency. Plant species alien to North America invaded plots subjected to spring driving. Regression analysis showed spring driving to produce more bare ground than summer driving. The regression models suggested that much higher intensities of training could be conducted without damage if spring driving were avoided. Regression models were also used to estimate the frequency of traffic associated with a significant change in species composition, where species composition was expressed as the ratio ofBouteloua gracilis toStipa spartea, an indicator of disturbance-induced change in prairie vegetation. This relationship predicted the capacity of the vegetation of a training area of any given width to support tank traffic without changing species composition. The predictive ability of the model was tested by comparing predicted traffic capacities with the amount of traffic actually applied to two training areas in 1986. Where traffic capacity was exceeded, the model successfully predicted a significantly higher frequency of bare ground and ratio ofBouteloua gracilis toStipa spartea.     

A systems approach for the development of a sustainable community--the application of the sensitivity model (SM)

Corresponding to the concept of 'Think globally, act locally and plan regionally' of sustainable development, this paper discusses the approach of planning a sustainable community in terms of systems thinking. We apply a systems tool, the sensitivity model (SM), to build a model of the development of the community of Ping-Ding, located adjacent to the Yang-Ming-Shan National Park, Taiwan. The major issue in the development of Ping-Ding is the conflict between environmental conservation and the development of a local tourism industry. With the involvement of local residents, planners, and interest groups, a system model of 26 variables was defined to identify characteristics of Ping-Ding through pattern recognition. Two scenarios concerning the sustainable development of Ping-Ding are simulated with interlinked feedbacks from variables. The results of the analysis indicate that the development of Ping-Ding would be better served by the planning of agriculture and the tourism industry. The advantages and shortfalls of applying SM in the current planning environment of Taiwan are also discussed to conclude this paper.     

A conceptual model for assessing ecological risk to water quality function of bottomland hardwood forests

Ecological risk assessment provides a methodology for evaluating the threats to ecosystem function associated with environmental perturbations or stressors. This report documents the development of a conceptual model for assessing the ecological risk to the water quality function (WQF) of bottomland hardwood riparian ecosystems (BHRE) in the Tifton-Vidalia upland (TVU) ecoregion of Georgia. Previus research has demonstrated that mature BHRE are essential to maintaining water quality in this portion of the coastal plain. The WQF of these ecosystems is considered an assessment endpoit—an ecosystem function or set of functions that society chooses to value as evidenced by laws, regulations, or common usage. Stressors operate on ecosystems at risk through an exposure scenario to produce ecological effects that are linked to loss of the desired function or assessment end point. The WQF of BHRE is at risk because of the ecological and environmental quality effects of a suite of chemical, physical, and biological stressors. The stressors are related to nonpoint source pollution from adjacent land uses, especially agriculture; the conversion of BHRE to other land uses; and the encroachment of domestic animals into BHRE. Potential chemical, physical, and biological stressors to BHRE are identified, and the methodology for evaluating appropriate exposure scenarios is discussed. Field-scale and watershed-scale measurement end points of most use in assessing the effects of stressors on the WQF are identified and discussed. The product of this study is a conceptual model of how risks to the WQF of BHRE are produced and how the risk and associated uncertainties can be quantified.     

A model for linking the effects of parathion in soil to its degradation and bioavailability kinetics

Parathion is an insecticide of a group of highly toxic organophosphorus compounds. To investigate the dissipation and toxicological impact of parathion [O,O-diethyl O-(4-nitrophenyl) phosphorothioate] and its highly toxic metabolite, paraoxon, soil laboratory experiments were conducted in columns during a 19-d experiment under variably saturated conditions. Water and pesticide transport, sorption, and biodegradation of parathion were measured in three soil pools (soluble phase, weakly and strongly sorbed phases) using C-labeled pesticide. The effects of parathion and its metabolite on the mobility of soil nematodes were observed and then modeled with an effective variable, which combined pesticide concentration and time of application. Results showed that parathion was highly sorbed and slowly degraded to a mixture of metabolites. The parent compound and its metabolites remained located in the top 0.06-m soil layer. A kinetic model describing the sorption, biodegradation, and allocation into different soil pools of parathion and its metabolites was coupled with heat and water transport equations to predict the fate of parathion in soil. Simulated results were in agreement with experimental data, showing that the products remained in the upper soil layers even in the case of long-term (11-mo) simulation. The strongly sorbed fraction may be regarded as a pesticide reservoir that regularly provides pesticide to the weakly sorbed phase, and then, liquid phase, respectively. From both modeling and observations, no major toxicological damage of parathion and paraoxon to soil nematodes was found, although some effects on nematodes were possible, but at the soil surface only (0.01- and 0.02-m depth).     

A simple method for predicting the consequences of land management in urban habitats

Land management in urban areas is characterized by the diversity of its goals and its physical expression in the landscape, as well as by the frequency and often rapidity of change. Deliberate or accidental landscape alterations lead to changes in habitat, some of which may be viewed as environmentally beneficial, others as detrimental. Evaluating what is there and how changes may fit into the landscape context is therefore essential if informed land-management decisions are to be made. The method presented here uses a simple ecological evaluation technique, employing a restricted number of evaluation criteria, to gather a spatially complete data set. A geographical information system (GIS) is then used to combine the resulting scores into a habitat value index (HVI). Using examples from Wolverhampton in the United Kingdom, existing real-world data are then applied to land-management scenarios to predict probable landscape ecological consequences of habitat alteration. The method provides an ecologically relevant, spatially complete evaluation of a large, diverse area in a short period of time. This means that contextual effects of land-management decisions can be quickly visualized and remedial or mitigating measures incorporated at an early stage without the requirement for complex modeling and prior to the detailed ecological survey. The strengths of the method lie in providing a detailed information baseline that evaluates all habitats, not just the traditional “quality” habitats, in a manner that is accessible to all potential users—from interested individuals to professional planners.     

Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.     

A regional environmental information system for analyzing and predicting the impacts of nonferrous mining on an agricultural environment

Mineral exploitation is a necessary component of China's economic development goals. Such exploitation brings with it the potential for serious environmental degradation. Careful environmental impact assessments of mining projects are required in order to implement China's environmental protection law and identify measures for protecting surrounding agricultural environments. This article describes an environmental information system that has been developed for the purpose of assisting with the environmental impact assessment of nonferrous mining operations with a particular focus on agricultural impacts. An application of the environmental information system to the Yongping copper mine, located in Jiangxi Province, is discussed. The role of the environmental information system is analyzing and predicting soil contamination from heavy metals and other types of impacts from this mining operation is described. The environmental information system is designed for implementation on an IBM PC/XT microcomputer. The experience gained from the Yongping copper mine application and the growing popularity of microcomputers in China indicate a significant potential for the effective use of a microcomputer-based environmental information system in other parts of China.     

Estimating the effects of urban residential development on water quality using microdata

In this study, we examine the impact on water quality of urbanization using disaggregate data from Wake County, North Carolina. We use a unique panel data set tracing the conversion of individual residentially zoned land parcels to relate the density of residential development and the change in residential land use to three measures of water quality. Using a spatial econometrics model, we relate spatially and temporally referenced monitoring station readings to our measures of residential land use while controlling for other factors affecting water quality. We find that both the density of residential land use and the rate of land conversion have a negative impact on water quality. The impacts of these non-point sources are found to be larger in magnitude than those from urban point sources.     

A paradigm for ecological risk assessment

The 1983 National Academy of Sciences paradigm for conducting human health risk assessment is considered with respect to ecological risk assessment. This four-step paradigm fails to capture key intrinsic differences between the two types of analysis, specifically: identity of risk targets and receptors; identity of the appropriate level of ecological organization at which the risk is expressed; variability of endpoint with respect to risk receptor; and the existence ofrisk cascades through ecological feedback loops. We propose an alternative paradigm that includes a preliminary step,receptor identification, in which chemical partitioning is combined with a conceptual model of the ecosystem to identify appropriate risk targets. In addition, we propose formal inclusion ofendpoint identification and explicit consideration of risk cascades in arelationship assessment in which interactive feedback loops are considered in an iterative process. The proposed paradigm preserves the steps of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment (renamedresponse assessment) and risk characterization, although specific modifications are recommended.     

Measuring sustainable development using a multi-criteria model: A case study

This paper shows how Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can help in a complex process such as the assessment of the level of sustainability of a certain area. The paper presents the results of a study in which a model for measuring sustainability was implemented to better aid public policy decisions regarding sustainability. In order to assess sustainability in specific areas, a methodological approach based on multi-criteria analysis has been developed. The aim is to rank areas in order to understand the specific technical and/or financial support that they need to develop sustainable growth.The case study presented is an assessment of the level of sustainability in different areas of an Italian Region using the MCDA approach. Our results show that MCDA is a proper approach for sustainability assessment. The results are easy to understand and the evaluation path is clear and transparent. This is what decision makers need for having support to their decisions. The multi-criteria model for evaluation has been developed respecting the sustainable development economic theory, so that final results can have a clear meaning in terms of sustainability.     

Informing the development of decision support tools for risk management: the case of electrical and magnetic fields

This paper describes tools developed through a community consultative process to help decision makers manage electrical and magnetic fields (EMF) health risk. The process involved in‐depth interviews with experts (N=12) and focus group discussions with seven different stakeholder groups. The results reveal commonly held intense public concerns about the long‐term health effects of EMF. These concerns were further reinforced by the lack of public trust in both government and industry with regards to EMF risk management. Overall, the participants wanted tools that can be used to manage EMF information, scientific uncertainty about EMF and the complex environment in which EMF issues are embedded. The findings contributed to a mapping out of response formats to address public concerns related to risk, hazard, trust, accountability and fairness across a range of stakeholder groups. These tools and their roles in the management of complex and variable risks, involving new circumstances (e.g. privatization) and information (e.g. new scientific studies) are presented. The importance of recognizing and working with uncertainty through adaptive management strategies, using qualitative approaches, is also discussed.     

WHIPPET: A novel tool for prioritizing invasive plant populations for regional eradication

Large geographic areas can have numerous incipient invasive plant populations that necessitate eradication. However, resources are often deficient to address every infestation. Within the United States, weed lists (either state-level or smaller unit) generally guide the prioritization of eradication of each listed species uniformly across the focus region. This strategy has several limitations that can compromise overall effectiveness, which include spending limited resources on 1) low impact populations, 2) difficult to access populations, or 3) missing high impact populations of low priority species. Therefore, we developed a novel science-based, transparent, analytical ranking tool to prioritize weed populations, instead of species, for eradication and tested it on a group of noxious weeds in California. For outreach purposes, we named the tool WHIPPET (Weed Heuristics: Invasive Population Prioritization for Eradication Tool). Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process that included expert opinion, we developed three major criteria, four sub-criteria, and four sub-sub-criteria, taking into account both species and population characteristics. Subject matter experts weighted and scored these criteria to assess the relative impact, potential spread, and feasibility of eradication (major criteria) for 100 total populations of 19 species. Species-wide population scores indicated that conspecific populations do not necessarily group together in the final ranked output. Thus, priority lists based solely on species-level characteristics are less effective compared to a blended prioritization based on both species attributes and individual population and site parameters. WHIPPET should facilitate a more efficacious decision-making process allocating limited resources to target invasive plant infestations with the greatest predicted impacts to the region under consideration.     

A land suitability model for the evaluation of land-use change

A land suitability model was developed to provide the planner with a quantitative tool for assessing the environmental limitations on proposed land-use changes in the area surrounding Lake Monroe in southern Indiana. The model incorporates a weighting procedure that allows the environmental evaluation of a decision to convert the present land use to another category. The data base for the model was assembled by a multidisciplinary team. A case study is included, which illustrates the advantages and limitations of the land suitability model as it is applied to the evaluation of a site for the Alumni Family Camp.     

A simplified model for the steady-state biofilm-activated sludge reactor

A simplified mathematical model is proposed to describe the steady-state completely mixed biofilm-activated sludge reactor (hybrid reactor). The model is derived based on Monod kinetic expressions and the Fickian diffusion law in biofilm. In addition, it considers all the essential concepts that describe the two types of growth (suspended and attached) and the competition between them for limiting substrate. Also the present study has been extended to investigate simple and accurate mathematical expressions for describing the substrate diffusion in biofilm (J). The expression for substrate flux has an explicit solution, which may be useful in the proposed model and many other applications. The application of the model for the hybrid system has been explained for a given set of data and verified by comparison with another solution. Also the model was applied to experimental results for a trace level of suspended biomass concentration (X). It was found that the biofilm flux (J) is the key factor in the model prediction, hence the accuracy of the model output is influenced by the accuracy of J. Compared with other solutions for such systems the model is simple, easy to use, and provides an accurate tool for describing such systems based on fundamental principles.     

A model recycling program for Alabama

Solid waste disposal is becoming a difficult problem for many states. Since 1960, the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) has been increasing at a rate of 1% per year. More than 75% of the waste is comprised of recyclable materials. Several states have mandated recycling to decrease the volume of waste intended for disposal. Those mandated programs are very popular, but depend on many political, social, and economic factors for success. While Alabama has the manufacturing infrastructure to support a mandated recycling program, no recycling legislation has been promulgated. At this time recycling is only being done on a voluntary basis. A mandatory program with the proper support, education and funding could allow Alabama to recycle much of the 5.2 million tons of waste that are generated within its borders each year.     

Simulating a thermal water quality trading market for education and model development

Thermal water quality trading is an emerging policy tool that allows thermal polluters to comply with effluent restrictions by paying landowners to plant shade trees. A simulation game was created to help participants understand the structure, dynamics, benefits, and drawbacks of thermal water quality trading markets. Simulation participants negotiate to make trades, and their decisions are entered into a system dynamics model that simulates tree growth and water temperature. A debriefing session allows the participants to discuss outcomes and strategies. The exercise has been performed twice and has proven to be a useful teaching tool. These simulations provided valuable insight into decision-making strategies in thermal water quality trading markets, suggesting decision rules that the researchers used for subsequent model development.