Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

上海市水灾风险分析

利用1949-1990年上海市郊水灾历史灾情资料,分析其时空分布特征显示,自1949年以来,水灾受灾指数和相应粮食减产率呈阶段性下降,尤其自1977年水利控制片贯彻实施后,二者呈大幅度下降。各区县中,综合考虑水灾频次和受灾面积两个因素,得出南汇灾情最为严峻。最终,针对历史灾情资料缺乏、小样本数据使用传统统计模型进行风险分析精度不高的特点,基于信息扩散原理,利用正态信息扩散技术将单一的样本观测值变为一模糊集的模糊数学方法,对各区县受灾指数进行了风险分析,结果显示:南汇、浦东在受灾指数较低时,超越概率较高,即风险较高;崇明、金山在任一受灾指数下,风险都显示最高,受灾指数达0.8的超越概率为0.03345和0.01243,分别达到30年一遇和100年一遇。     

论江西洪涝灾害

在调查研究的基础上 ,依据大量历史资料 ,对建国 50 a年来江西洪涝灾害发生的类型、面积及其造成的严重损失进行了分析 ,并提出了防御洪涝灾害的对策和措施 ,对减轻江西洪涝灾害 ,实现全省农业跨世纪的持续发展具有指导意义     

洪涝对水稻的危害及其抗灾减灾的栽培措施

就洪涝灾害对水稻生长发育和产量的危害,及其影响水稻洪涝灾害的因素进行了综述,并讨论了水稻抗灾减灾的栽培措施,包括合理安排栽培季节种植耐涝品种、水稻耐涝栽培和灾后补救等。     

土地利用变化对城市洪涝灾害的影响

选择经历了快速城市化过程的深圳地区一典型小流域——布吉河流域，使用分布式水文模型就土地利用变化对城市化流域暴雨洪水汇流过程的影响进行了模拟。模拟结果表明，土地利用结构与格局的变化，使得暴雨洪水的最大洪峰流量和洪量加大，汇流时间变短。与1998年相比，2000年在前期土壤较干的情况下，频率为1％，2％和5％的3种设计暴雨洪水的最大洪峰流量，其增大幅度分别为20．2％，23．0％和28．9％。同时，土地利用状况对暴雨洪水的影响还与土壤前期湿润程度和暴雨强度有关：随着前期土壤由较干向较湿润变化和暴雨强度的增大，土地利用状况向城市化方向的发展对暴雨洪水的影响趋于减弱。深圳1980年以来洪涝灾害加剧的统计结果证实了这一模拟结果。     

Nutritional response to the 1998 Bangladesh flood disaster: Sphere minimum standards in disaster response

In this study we use a cross-sectional survey to evaluate the nutritional response to the 1998 Bangladesh Flood Disaster by 15 relief agencies using standards developed by the Sphere Project. The Sphere Project is a recent attempt by agencies around the world to establish universal minimum standards for the purpose of ensuring quality and accountability in disaster response. The main outcomes measured were resources allocated to disaster relief types of relief activities and percentage of agencies meeting selected Sphere food aid and nutrition indicators. Although the process of nutritional response was measured, specific nutritional and health outcomes were not assessed. This review found that self-reported disaster and nutritional resources varied widely between implementing agencies, ranging from US $58,947 to $15,908,712. The percentage of resources these agencies allocated to food aid and nutritional response also varied, ranging from approximately 6 to 99 per cent of total resources. Agencies met between 8 and 83 per cent of the specific Sphere indicators which were assessed Areas in which performance was poor included preliminary nutritional analysis; beneficiary participation and feedback; disaster preparedness during non-emergency times; monitoring of local markets and impact assessment. Agencies were generally successful in areas of core humanitarian response, such as targeting the vulnerable (83 per cent) and monitoring and evaluating the process of disaster response (75 per cent). The results here identify both strengths and gaps in the quality of humanitarian response in developing nations such as Bangladesh. However, they also raise the question of implementing a rights-based approach to disaster response in nations without a commitment to meeting positive human rights in non-disaster times.     

建立洪水灾情等级模型的实用方案

为检验已订的洪水灾情等级标准的合理性,提出了一种新的洪水灾情模型－逻辑斯谛曲线（ＬＯＧ）模型,它的灾级是连续的实数值。根据ＬＯＧ模型参数值可以分析各灾情指标值对灾级的影响程度,从而检验原订灾级标准的合理性;并给出了基于实码遗传算法的ＬＯＧ建模的实施方案。实例研究说明了这套方案是实用和通用的,在其它灾情等级评估中也具有广泛的应用价值。     

鄱阳湖洪灾特征与圩区还湖减灾运用方式研究

根据水文资料,分析了鄱阳湖入湖五大河流来水与长江水情对鄱阳湖洪灾的影响和鄱阳湖洪水位的频率特征,探讨了湖区中小圩区"高水还湖滞洪,低水种植养殖"的减灾运行方式对湖区防洪减灾可以起到的作用。     

上海降雨特征及其对城市水情灾害的影响

利用上海降雨资料,分析了上海汛期降雨的变化和最大年日雨量极值的累积分布规律,近期降雨空间分布、暴雨频度和强降雨特征,及气候因子对水情灾害的影响。结果显示,汛期雨量大小对水情灾害影响较为复杂,大暴雨或强降雨是造成水情灾害的重要原因。初步探讨和提出了气候因子的灾害危险评估方法,并对上海各区(县)近期的暴雨灾害影响进行了危险评估;暴雨对上海地区水情灾害影响差异明显,崇明、市中心区和浦东新区暴雨灾害危险较大,南部地区的青浦、金山、奉贤和松江区危险较小。     

"03.8"渭河下游特大洪涝灾害的"三情"分析

应用渭河流域各气象站及下游重灾区华县水文站的资料,对2003年渭河下游特大洪灾的雨情、水情及灾情进行了分析.阐述了大气环流背景,从降水的时间分布、大降水的落区和分类,总结了特大洪灾的降水特点;从洪水的水位、流量、过程线及与历史洪灾过程的对比分析,得出"03.8"洪水具有"峰次多、水位高、历时长、总量大"之特征;通过洪水前后卫星遥感监测图像的对比分析,清楚地看出渭河主河道明显加宽了3～8倍,造成直接经济损失高达40多亿元;经过以上分析,还揭示了本次洪灾形成的主要原因,从而提出了有关治理渭河、减少洪灾的发展对策.     

基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价

在湖北省1：25万数字地形图的基础上,利用ARC／INFO地理信息系统平台强大的空间分析和叠加功能,对湖北省洪水灾害危险性进行了初步评价,首先对构洪水灾害危险性的4个因子－－降水,地形,河网（包括河流、湖泊,水库）以及历史上洪灾发生的频次等进行了分析和数字化,得出了各因子对洪水灾害影响程度的栅格图层,其次,对这些图层进行空间叠加,得到了湖北省洪涝灾害危险性评价图,结果显示,湖北省东部及中部地区的洪水危险性普遍高于其他地区,特别是枝江以下的长江沿线以及钟祥以下的汉江中下游一线两岸地区,危险性最高,这与这些地区丰富的降水,低平的地势是密切相关的;而鄂西南和鄂东南部虽然降水也比较丰富,但由于该区地势高,因此洪水危险性相对于中部来说总体上要低一些,鄂西北地区尤其是神农架地区降水量少,地势最高,因而危险性最低。这个结果与河北省的实际情况是符合的。     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

中国铁路水害环境致灾因子分析

以１９８０—１９９８年近２０年间的共３１８２次水害数据为基础进行统计分析，对中国铁路水害的自然环境致灾因子作了分类，验证了其与太阳黑子之间的相关性．同时，对降水致灾的发生频数与断道时间之间的关系进行了探讨，指出地形、地质对铁路水害的影响具有区域性特征。     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.     

基于免疫遗传算法的洪灾神经网络评估模型

灾情评估的结果既是制定防洪减灾决策的基本依据，也是评价防洪工作成效的重要指标。提出了一种基于免疫遗传算法优化的神经网络模型（IGA—NN）并用于洪水灾情的评估，给出了IGA—NN的设计方法和优化步骤。同时还将ICA—NN与标准遗传算法优化的神经网络模型进行了比较，显示了IGA—NN的优越性。最后通过实例，验证了IGA—NN的实用性。     

近30年来湖北洪涝灾害时序特征及预测分析——基于分形与混沌理论的研究

借助分形与混沌理论,对1978-2004年湖北省洪涝灾害成灾面积时间序列进行了分析,重构了其嵌入相空间序列,计算了其关联维数和饱和嵌入维数,确定了模拟相应动力系统所需的基本变量数目;同时,通过计算Kolmogorov熵,得出了对该洪涝灾害时间序列进行预测预报的时间尺度.最后,基于R/S分形分析,对湖北省未来洪涝灾害成灾面积的发展趋势作了预测,对该省洪涝灾害成灾面积可能呈现增大趋势的原因进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策.研究表明,该方法是一种有效的研究洪涝灾害时间序列分形特征的方法,能够客观、合理地反映洪涝灾害系统的分形特征,能为建立洪涝灾害成灾面积时间序列预报模型提供基础信息.     

Community cohesion after a natural disaster: insights from a Carlisle flood

This project analysed changes in community cohesion following a natural disaster. Data were collected from a flood‐affected community using a questionnaire survey. Analyses revealed that community cohesion was not predicted by the length of residence, or any other demographic characteristic of residents, but rather by a sense of community, community cognition and the degree of community participation. Cohesion alteration was not uniform, but varied along levels of hazard severity (degree of flood invasion). Cohesion increased in line with hazard severity at the initial flood stage, as residents recognised the importance of community unity and came together to cope with their losses. When the severity increased, residents transferred their focus to individual interests, which resulted in decreased cohesion. This project distinguishes itself in examining community cohesion in the wake of a natural disaster in the real world. Implications regarding community reconstruction and suggestions for hazard researchers are discussed accordingly.     

西藏公路水毁灾害

位于我国西南边陲、青藏高原西南部的西藏,由于特殊的地质地貌条件和气候影响,公路水毁灾害十分严重。本文就西藏公路水毁灾害的基本特点、类型、主要因素和发展趋势进行了剖析。     

3S技术在财产保险防洪救灾中的应用

分析了保险业防灾减损的研究现状,阐述了3S的技术特点及其应用领域。和如何将3S技术应用于财产保险防洪救灾领域,建立财产保险防洪救灾决策支持系统。介绍了系统的整体构架及其功能特点,该系统可与保险公司业务系统紧密结合,显示直观。同时包括保险分析、灾害分析和专题图显示等多项功能。实现了多源数据的无缝集成。因而能从理论方法和关键技术上指导保险公司的防灾减损工作。切实提高保险公司的经济效益。以深圳市为示范区,该系统在应用中取得了良好效果。