Guidelines for life extension process management in oil and gas facilities

Facilities life extension has caught the attention among the capital-intensive industries, like oil and gas. By extending the life cycle of the industrial assets, a wide range of benefits is obtained, comparing with other life ending management strategies. This article first contextualizes the implementation of the life extension concept in the oil and gas industry, showing global data about life extension. Despite the importance of the ageing process, due to its great economic impact and the risk it poses to the production sector, regulatory entities, even in countries more advanced in that sector or that have already experienced the extension process, developed only superficial material about the topic without defining a structured methodology for the assessment of the possibility of useful life extension. The available references do not allow a comprehensive analysis of that possibility, which highlights the importance the methodology proposed. Thus, this article proposes a guideline for the life extension process management, strengthening a framework containing the main evaluation stages, aiming to facilitate the analysis of issues related to ageing and to support the decision-making process. Lastly, real case studies regarding current life extension processes submitted to the Brazilian regulatory body were evaluated against the proposed framework stages, evidencing their lack of necessary details to support the decision-making. Upon the realization that the real cases identified do not allow for the assessment of the contribution and adequacy of the proposed framework in its entirety, the same was also applied to a hypothetical case. The latter was developed based on facts reported by a major operator in Brazil. The result was the determination that the use of the proposed methodology transformed the assessment of the possibility of life extension into a systematic and transparent process, leading to easier and better-founded decision-making procedures, and improving the management of the asset during its extended life.     

Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

气瓶腐蚀缺陷应力分析及寿命预测*

为研究气瓶全生命周期腐蚀缺陷与剩余寿命的关系,基于ANSYS建立某型号车用压缩天然气钢瓶有限元模型,分析内腐蚀深度0.1~3.0 mm状态下,气瓶Mises应力分布与应力强度变化规律;根据应力分析,应用局部应力应变理论和修正的Manson Coffin公式进行寿命预测。结果表明:随着气瓶腐蚀缺陷的加深,气瓶额定载荷下的应力分布呈现向缺陷区域集中、应力强度增大的趋势,且腐蚀曲线存在明显拐点;使用应力分析与寿命预测相结合的方法,得出含腐蚀缺陷车用气瓶寿命—腐蚀深度关系曲线,可为气瓶安全使用管理提供参考。     

楼房火灾的安全灭火时限分析与施救对策

在楼房建筑物火灾灭火时 ,常由于火燃造成建筑材料强度失效导致整体坍塌 ,给施救工作带来很大的威胁。强调了在灭火过程的始终 ,应不断进行高温状态下建筑材料强度的失效判定 ,评估出安全的灭火时限和调整施救对策 ,有利于从根本上预防楼房坍塌意外事故的发生。定义了火灾高温状态下建筑材料危险应力点上的可靠度 ,提出依据火灾现场因素和数据 ,用数值模拟方法分析建筑材料强度失效随时间的变化过程 ,确定安全的灭火时限。给出了以火灾施救为主线的并适时考虑构件强度分析和安全时限判定交叉平行作业的多阶段施救对策框架 ,建立了楼房火灾施救安全支持系统结构。     

滚石冲击作用下埋地高压输气管道的可靠性分析

地质灾害往往会对高压输气管线造成安全隐患,岩体崩塌引起的滚石冲击是导致埋地输气管道第三方破坏的主要破坏形式之一。通过概率分布求出滚石产生的偶然性载荷对管道的冲击频率,根据可靠性理论,用管线钢自身的强度和撞击产生的工作应力,建立强度应力的安全裕度方程。然后利用LS-DYNA有限元软件,建立滚石冲击管道模型,计算不同条件下埋地输气管道的最大应力Sm,确定Sm的分布规律。最后,根据应力和强度的分布求得管道可靠度指标和失效概率。本研究提供的方法和结论对埋地输气管道的风险评估、管道的设计及施工具有重要的参考价值。     

基于蒙特卡洛方法的油气井管柱可靠性评估*

为提高油气井管柱服役的安全性,采用数据统计与可靠性理论评估油气井管柱可靠性。首先,识别影响管柱外载及其参数的变量,构建油气井管柱安全极限状态方程;然后,采集模型变量数据,确定变量分布与参数,形成油气井管柱可靠性数值模型;最后,通过蒙特卡洛方法计算影响管柱可靠性的关键变量和不同置信度水平下管柱剩余强度分布及安全系数取值。结果表明:目标区域油气井管柱剩余强度符合正态分布,得到不同置信度水平下管柱的可靠度,管柱的安全系数取值范围可满足管柱安全设计要求,所构建的方法可为实际生产中油气井井筒管柱安全评价提供技术支撑。     

基于TF-熵权法的矿井通风系统可靠性可拓评价

为准确评价煤矿通风系统可靠性,提高可靠性评价的客观性与准确性,有效防止因通风系统故障而引起的煤矿安全事故,提出基于三角模糊数(TF)-熵权法的矿井通风系统可靠性可拓评价模型,首先利用德尔菲法从通风动力、通风网络等6个方面,选取29个评价指标确定矿井通风系统可靠性评价指标体系;然后,通过三角模糊数与熵权法相结合的方式确定...     

液化石油气钢瓶长径比研究

分析钢瓶的长度和直径之比(长径比)对容积变形率的影响,在材料相同的条件下,长径比大的气瓶的容积变形率的要求也相应提高。笔者分别从钢瓶的边界效应、冲压工艺、制造经济性3个方面探讨了液化石油气钢瓶的合适长径比,并综合提出了液化石油气钢瓶的长径比的适宜范围为0.8～1.6。     

基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效,针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点,建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型;借助可靠性理论,通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点,将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化;提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中,而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小;若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a,VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时,建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。     

Reliability assessment of ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulations

Ultra-deep oil and gas wells have become a new development trend in onshore oil and gas exploitation. However, Ultra-deep oil and gas wellbore casing is with high failure risk due to the harsh environment. It is essential to evaluate the reliability of wellbore casing. This paper assesses the operational reliability of wellbore casing using data statistics and numerical simulation. Firstly, the theoretical model for reliability analysis of wellbore casing is established, and the variables in the model are determined, including rock mechanics, cement ring, and casing string strength factors. Subsequently, considering the random distribution of model variables, many statistics and analyses are performed to determine the distribution parameters of the model variables. Eventually, Monte Carlo based numerical simulations are carried out to obtain the residual strength distribution and the reliability of wellbore casing. The production casing in the ultra-deep well with a depth of 6.5 km in China as an industrial case is used to illustrate the present study. It is observed that this study can be useful to guide a more accurate assessment of the reliability of ultra-deep wellbore casing.     

低压液化气体钢瓶＂满液＂爆炸压力变化分析

本文对低压液化气体钢瓶“满液”爆炸的特征及内部压力变化了进行了理论分析和举例计算,并就如何安全使用液化气体钢瓶提出了一些合理化建议,希望能对气瓶的安全使用起到一定的警示作用。     

煤油气共生矿井瓦斯含量主控因素分析及工作面瓦斯治理

针对崔家沟煤矿煤油气共生、瓦斯含量分布复杂、瓦斯涌出不均的特点,在分析瓦斯含量影响因素的基础上,采用灰熵关联分析法确定影响瓦斯含量的主控因素,通过顶板岩层含油强度研究2303工作面瓦斯含量分布规律,提出2303工作面瓦斯治理方案并进行应用。结果表明:顶板岩层含油强度与瓦斯含量的灰熵关联度最大为0.993 3,是影响崔家沟煤矿4-2号煤层瓦斯含量的主控因素;根据顶板含油强度可将2303工作面划分为2个瓦斯含量分布单元;采取高位钻孔与顶板走向长钻孔相结合的工作面瓦斯治理方案可有效降低高瓦斯含量分布单元回采时回风流中的瓦斯浓度,能有效确保工作面的安全高效回采。     

高压、超高压油气井装备抗内压强度设计计算分析*

为解决传统计算公式与方法已几乎无法满足目前对高压、超高压油气井装备强度设计的需求,利用理论分析方法,对不同抗内压强度计算公式进行详细分析,引入压力容器行业高压、超高压的计算公式与方法,并对某高温高压井抗内压强度进行分析,提出适用于超高压油气井的油套管抗内压强度计算公式。研究结果表明:不同抗内压强度公式的基本思想与设计准则不同,在使用时应注意限制条件,现有的抗内压强度计算公式不适用于高压、超高压油气井,材料性能不能充分利用且存在一定安全隐患;对超过100 MPa的油气井,可以采用弹塑性理念计算抗内压强度,对于油套管可以减小强度等级同时增加壁厚来满足抗内压强度要求。研究结果对高压、超高压油气井装备抗内压强度设计具有一定参考价值。     

钢管混凝土格构式柱受力性能研究

为研究不同含钢率对钢管混凝土格构式柱受力性能的影响,对4个不同含钢率试件在单向水平荷载和水平循环荷载作用下进行了非线性有限元分析.结果表明:含钢率对钢管混凝土格构式柱的刚度影响比较显著.随着含钢率的增加,钢管混凝土格构式柱无论在弹性阶段还是在非线性强化阶段,其刚度均有所提高,承载能力和极限位移也同时提高.但是当含钢率增大到一定程度,再增加含钢率,钢管混凝土格构式柱的极限承载力和刚度提高的幅度反而会降低.延性性能和耗能性能增加的幅度也同时会降低.为提高结构的安全性和可靠性,实际工程钢管混凝土格构柱的设计过程中,要控制合理的含钢率.     

桥式起重机结构可靠性失效准则与剩余寿命评估准则

针对确定可靠性失效准则和剩余寿命评估准则时,未与起重机结构实际相结合的特点,笔者将机电类特种设备钢结构系统的可靠性分析失效准则与结构剩余寿命评估准则有机的统一起来,以桥式起重机结构系统为研究对象,确定了桥式起重机钢结构系统的具体失效准则,即从静强度、疲劳强度、刚度、整体稳定性、局部稳定性以及最大失效路径长度等多方面进行评价。通过对桥式起重机起重量摄动引起刚度失效比重变化结果对比,验证了结果的正确性。该方法可为起重机可靠性与剩余寿命评估做好前期准备,为机电类特种设备安全评估方法提供一条新理论新思路。     

Study of high-tech process furnace using inherently safer design strategies (II). Deposited film thickness model

In the low-pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) process, there are many factors that could affect the thin film thickness and homogeneity in the thin film deposition process. Besides temperature, the volume flow rate of the reactant gas, the Mole fraction, and pressure are all affecting factors. On the basis of the forecast mode result of the thermal model of wafer temperature distribution in the previously published article, this study used the optimal method to calculate the conversion rate of the surface of each wafer under simulated conditions of various furnace temperatures and Mole fractions, as well as silane flow rates and pressures, and finally calculated the thin film growth rate and homogeneity of the surface of each wafer.This study validated four types of process conditions, and found that the results were very close to the experimental values in the previous studies, when conditions such as temperature, Mole fraction of silane, flow rate and pressure in the process were changed. This study thus concluded that the proposed process film thickness mode could meet the requirement of the process capacity. This study found that adjusting the heating zone temperature to regulate the film thickness growth rate was able to control uniformity of the film thickness. These feasible adjustment measures could be very effective on the industry commercial processes.Furthermore, the film thickness mode established in this study was used to discuss the application level of the inherently safer design strategies. This study mode could be used to adjust the temperature, mole fraction (mf), flow rate (F) and pressure (P) in the process for a single machine. Under the condition of meeting the film thickness process recipes required by the process, the silane flow rate was lowered through the adjustment of the control system. The study took the silane supply system as the basis of the case study. Based on a daily required silane consumption of 64.4 L, the daily required amount was 1.5 cylinders in the case of using 40 L high-pressure cylinders. The total daily required amount would be three 40 L high-pressure cylinders, including one more reserve amount on top of the daily required amount, which could match the inherently safer design philosophy and the principles of intensification, attenuation and limitation of effects.In terms of the factory evaluation, among all of the 12-inch furnace machines in Taiwanese wafer factories, nine out of 47 sets use silane, and the total daily consumption reaches 579.6 L. The total required amount, including the reserve, is 27 cylinders for 40 L high-pressure cylinders. As for the setting of the gas cabinet, the required amount could be reduced, since the gas supply pipeline could be designed in a multiple circuit. The minimum reactant gas input amount could be obtained in combination with the proposed film thickness mode, and the safety could be improved greatly, in accordance with the inherently safer design philosophy and the principles of intensification, attenuation and limitation of effects. In addition to the process capacity, this study also took the elevation of the inherently safer level into consideration, which could be provided to the industry for more comprehensive design consideration.     

加油站新旧输油管线碰头焊接方法探讨

《汽车加油加气站设计与施工规范》(GB50156-2002)中提到加油站输油管道宜采用无缝钢管、连接方式采用焊接是输油管道敷设的基本要求,其优点是焊缝少、比较严密可靠、施工速度快、省材省工、便于防腐、不容易出现渗漏隐患。但加油站在改造输油管线时,新旧管线碰头焊接过程中产生的火花易点燃管线中的油气引发火灾及爆炸。因此,如何在新旧输油管线碰头焊接时安全施工就成为了需要我们探讨的问题。本文结合丹东太平湾加油站输油管线改造的实际情况,简要的阐述了加油站含油气管线碰头焊接的几种方法。     

Uncertainty analysis framework for tubular connection sealability of underground gas storage wells

The seal failure of tubing and casing connections compromises underground gas storage well safety. This work proposes a systematic uncertainty analysis framework for connection sealability assessment. The framework covers reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis and attempts to provide more effective support for the reliability design of connection seals. The reliability analysis introduces an adaptive Kriging with stopping criterion P-Monte Carlo simulation (AKP-MCS) method, which can provide a satisfactory estimate of failure probability with a small number of performance function evaluations. This metamodeling technology can effectively reduce the numerical efforts required for the reliability assessment of connection sealability. In the reliability sensitivity analysis, the refined metamodel obtained from the reliability analysis is coupled into a single-loop Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The classifier attribute of this metamodel can meet the requirement of the single-loop MCS method to classify the signs of sampling points. This attribute enables sample matrices to be evaluated on this metamodel instead of the performance function, making the reliability sensitivity assessment more feasible. The proposed method is first demonstrated with four academic examples with promising results. Next, an illustrative tubular connection case is provided. The proposed scheme gives estimates of the failure probability and reliability sensitivity close to the classical model but requires less computational cost. The results of the analysis can provide useful information for the scheme decision-making and reliability optimization of connection seal design.     

基于云模型的海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估方法

为更好地解决海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估过程中的不确定性问题,提出1种基于区间二型模糊层次分析法的云模型综合评估方法。针对评估体系的局部性,借鉴PPRR应急管理过程理论,对影响船舶溢油应急管理能力的因素进行分级和分类,构建全局评估指标体系;分别运用区间二型模糊层次分析法和逆向云发生器确定各指标权重和云模型参数;通过浮动云和综合云算法获得最终评估结果。结果表明:将5个评估等级和评估结果进行仿真得出评估云的“云滴”图可显示出评估结果的能力等级以及评估结果的可信度和稳定性。计算某海区船舶溢油应急管理能力的评估等级为“较好”,即管辖该海区的海事管理部门能较好地解决海上船舶溢油突发事故,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

注浆减沉机理的新认识和注浆系统可靠度分析

笔者通过对影响注浆减沉技术效果的分析 ,建立了由浆体单元、钻孔单元、围岩体单元和封孔单元组成子系统的注浆减沉系统 ,以及系统对应的可靠度分析模型 ;运用可靠度理论 ,解析并得出了注浆减沉系统可靠度计算公式 ;依据建立的注浆减沉系统模型 ,借助数理统计和随机过程等工具 ,可以做到比较准确地预测注浆减沉的效果 ,优化注浆参数和改善注浆工艺 ,为减少地下工程开挖损害 ,保护环境和施工安全提供了新的途径。