Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.     

Nexus on climate change: agriculture and possible solution to cope future climate change stresses

The changing climate scenarios harshen the biotic stresses including boosting up the population of insect/pest and disease, uplifting weed growth, declining soil beneficial microbes, threaten pollinator, and boosting up abiotic stresses including harsh drought/waterlogging, extremisms in temperature, salinity/alkalinity, abrupt rainfall pattern)) and ulitamtely  affect the plant in multiple ways. This nexus review paper will cover four significant points viz (1) the possible impacts of climate change; as the world already facing the problem of food security, in such crucial period, climatic change severely affects all four dimensions of food security (from production to consumption) and will lead to malnutrition/malnourishment faced by low-income peoples. (2) How some major crops (wheat, cotton, rice, maize, and sugarcane) are affected by stress and their consequent loss. (3) How to develop a strategic work to limit crucial factors, like their significant role in climate-smart breeding, developing resilience to stresses, and idiotypic breeding. Additionally, there is an essence of improving food security, as much of our food is wasted before consumption for instance post-harvest losses. (4) Role of biotechnology and genetic engineering in adaptive introgression of the gene or developing plant transgenic against pests. As millions of dollars are invested in innovation and research to cope with future climate change stresses on a plant, hence community base adaptation of innovation is also considered an important factor in crop improvements. Because of such crucial predictions about the future impacts of climate change on agriculture, we must adopt measures to evolve crop.

     

Managing flood risks in the Mekong Delta: How to address emerging challenges under climate change and socioeconomic developments

Climate change and accelerating socioeconomic developments increasingly challenge flood-risk management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta—a typical large, economically dynamic and highly vulnerable delta. This study identifies and addresses the emerging challenges for flood-risk management. Furthermore, we identify and analyse response solutions, focusing on meaningful configurations of the individual solutions and how they can be tailored to specific challenges using expert surveys, content analysis techniques and statistical inferences. Our findings show that the challenges for flood-risk management are diverse, but critical challenges predominantly arise from the current governance and institutional settings. The top-three challenges include weak collaboration, conflicting management objectives and low responsiveness to new issues. We identified 114 reported solutions and developed six flood management strategies that are tailored to specific challenges. We conclude that the current technology-centric flood management approach is insufficient given the rapid socioecological changes. This approach therefore should be adapted towards a more balanced management configuration where technical and infrastructural measures are combined with institutional and governance resolutions. Insights from this study contribute to the emerging repertoire of contemporary flood management solutions, especially through their configurations and tailoring to specific challenges.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The global inequalities and climate change

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Quantifying flexibility in combating climate change: modelling the implications of flexibility mechanisms in the climate change negotiations

With the 'International Trading of Emission Allowances' (ITEA) model, we have analysed the flexibility mechanisms provided for in the Kyoto Protocol. Three main mechanisms of flexibility are analysed differentiation of initial commitments, multiple sources, and locational flexibility (trading). A differentiation of commitments could help the evolution of commitments, especially with a trading regime, which could create some income. Multiple sources give a large pool of cheaper abatement options from the non-CO₂ gases, and costs are reduced substantially. Finally, a trading regime would make available even more cheap abatement options, mainly in the economies in transition (EITs). This regime would provide income support for the EITs, helping them to speed up their transition. The combined mechanisms reduce dramatically the costs for the compliance with the protocol for the whole of Annex I; they fall to zero in some cases. Two other main findings deal with the EU and the EITs. Internal trading would ease the debate on the internal distribution of commitments within the EU under the bubble provision, reducing costs significantly. The allocations in the protocol for the EITs probably create a huge excess - 'hot air' - which could seriously harm the agreement if it is not dealt with. Excluding the hot air will increase costs for the quota importers, and it will also slightly reduce income for the relevant EITs, but this is offset by a rising price, which also benefits other EITs.     

Improving dialogue among researchers,local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North

Ambio - The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic...     

Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies

Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a ‘feminization of vulnerability’ and reinforce a ‘victimization’ discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.     

Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs

OBJECTIVES: This work assesses the contribution to climate change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated greenhouse gases. METHODS: A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated. RESULTS: The substances covered by this study have contributed emissions of 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 equivalents per year in 1996. In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents, this corresponds to 3 +/- 2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone. For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3% (870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2 eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$ 50 per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively.     

The domino effect in climate change

This paper provides a concise summary of the natural and the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and the major causes for climate change. This summary may be particularly accessible for readers who are not familiar with natural sciences. Building on these explanations, we develop a simplifying atmospheric model that demonstrates a widely unknown aspect of global warming: the greenhouse effect enhances its own causes and, as a repercussion, induces a further global warming. This effect, referred to as domino effect, is based on the additional production of heat in the atmosphere, happening substantively while heat passes our atmosphere on its way to outer space. On the basis of our considerations, in principle, technological efficiency improvements appear to be an attractive measure for mitigating global warming.     

Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.     

Piggery: from environmental pollution to a climate change solution

Pig farms are a vital component of rural economies in Australia. However, disposal of effluent leads to many environmental problems. This case study of the Berrybank Farm piggery waste management system in Victoria estimates greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits from three different activities. Analysis reveals that the capturing and combusting of methane from piggery effluent could save between 4859 and 5840 tCO2e yr(-1) of GHG emissions. Similarly, using methane for replacing fuels for electricity generation could save another 800 tCO2e yr(-1)of GHGs. Likewise, by utilizing the biogas wastes to replace inorganic fertilizers there could be a further saving of 1193 to 1375 tCO2e yr(-1) of GHG, depending on the type of fertilizers the waste replaces. Therefore, a well-managed piggery farm with 15,000 pigs could save 6,852 to 8,015 tCO2e yr(-1), which equates to the carbon sequestrated from 6,800 to 8,000 spotted gum trees (age=35 year) in their above plus below-ground biomass. Implementation of similar project in suitable areas in Australia could have significant environmental and financial benefits.     

The law, agency and global climate change

Consideration of policy for addressing global climate change must start with a recognition of the conflicting interests of the industrialised and the developing nations. Effective resource management regimes require a structure of incentives that will induce nations with disparate interests to cooperate and to resist temptations to defect from international agreements. Agency theory offers insights as to how such resource management regimes might be sustained. Industrialised nations must be prepared to offer inducements to agrarian nations to encourage the maintenance of tropical biomass. Moreover, technical assistance to encourage the development of technologies that are efficient in the use of carbon fuels is also essential.     

Piggery: From environmental pollution to a climate change solution

Pig farms are a vital component of rural economies in Australia. However, disposal of effluent leads to many environmental problems. This case study of the Berrybank Farm piggery waste management system in Victoria estimates greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits from three different activities. Analysis reveals that the capturing and combusting of methane from piggery effluent could save between 4859 and 5840 tCO₂e yr^{? 1} of GHG emissions. Similarly, using methane for replacing fuels for electricity generation could save another 800 tCO₂e yr^{? 1}of GHGs. Likewise, by utilizing the biogas wastes to replace inorganic fertilizers there could be a further saving of 1193 to 1375 tCO₂e yr^{? 1} of GHG, depending on the type of fertilizers the waste replaces. Therefore, a well-managed piggery farm with 15,000 pigs could save 6,852 to 8,015 tCO₂e yr^{? 1}, which equates to the carbon sequestrated from 6,800 to 8,000 spotted gum trees (age = 35 year) in their above plus below-ground biomass. Implementation of similar project in suitable areas in Australia could have significant environmental and financial benefits.     

Effects of climate change on surface-water photochemistry: a review

Information concerning the link between surface-water photochemistry and climate is presently very scarce as only a few studies have been dedicated to the subject. On the basis of the limited knowledge that is currently available, the present inferences can be made as follows: (1) Warming can cause enhanced leaching of ionic solutes from the catchments to surface waters, including cations and more biologically labile anions such as sulphate. Preferential sulphate biodegradation followed by removal as organic sulphides in sediment could increase alkalinity, favouring the generation of the carbonate radical, CO₃ ^·?. However, this phenomenon would be easily offset by fluctuations of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is strongly anticorrelated with CO₃ ^·?. Therefore, obtaining insight into DOC evolution is a key issue in understanding the link between photochemistry and climate. (2) Climate change could exacerbate water scarcity in the dry season in some regions. Fluctuations in the water column could deeply alter photochemistry that is usually favoured in shallower waters. However, the way water is lost would strongly affect the prevailing photoinduced processes. Water outflow without important changes in solute concentration would mostly favour reactions induced by the hydroxyl and carbonate radicals (·OH and CO₃ ^·?). In contrast, evaporative concentration would enhance reactions mediated by singlet oxygen (¹O₂) and by the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (³CDOM*). (3) In a warmer climate, the summer stratification period of lakes would last longer, thereby enhancing photochemical reactions in the epilimnion but at the same time keeping the hypolimnion water in the dark for longer periods.     

Social and ecological responses to climate change: towards an integrative understanding

A literature review and a survey of professionals whose work deals with climate change indicate that more is known and considered certain by the natural science community concerning responses of natural systems to climate change. There is less of a consensus among social scientists that social systems are directly responding to climate change. The emphasis in the literature on policy and mitigation is corroborated by the survey results, which revealed only social variables that are tightly linked to climate or natural systems. Identifying variables of both natural and social systems that respond to climate change is imperative for a better understanding of the implications of climate change.     

Forest responses to tropospheric ozone and global climate change: an analysis

In this paper an analysis is provided on: what we know, what we need to know, and what we need to do, to further our understanding of the relationships between tropospheric ozone (O(3)), global climate change and forest responses. The relationships between global geographic distributions of forest ecosystems and potential geographic regions of high photochemical smog by the year 2025 AD are described. While the emphasis is on the effects of tropospheric O(3) on forest ecosystems, discussion is presented to understand such effects in the context of global climate change. One particular strong point of this paper is the audit of published surface O(3) data by photochemical smog region that reveals important forest/woodland geographic regions where little or no O(3) data exist even though the potential threat to forests in those regions appears to be large. The concepts and considerations relevant to the examination of ecosystem responses as a whole, rather than simply tree stands alone are reviewed. A brief argument is provided to stimulate the modification of the concept of simple cause and effect relationships in viewing total ecosystems. Our knowledge of O(3) exposure and its effects on the energy, nutrient and hydrological flow within the ecosystem are described. Modeling strategies for such systems are reviewed. A discussion of responses of forests to potential multiple climatic changes is provided. An important concept in this paper is that changes in water exchange processes throughout the hydrological cycle can be used as early warning indicators of forest responses to O(3). Another strength of this paper is the integration of information on structural and functional processes of ecosystems and their responses to O(3). An admitted weakness of this analysis is that the information on integrated ecosystem responses is based overwhelmingly on the San Bernardino Forest ecosystem research program of the 1970s because of a lack of similar studies. In the final analysis, it is recommended that systems ecology be applied in examining the joint effects of O(3), carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B radiation on forest ecosystems.