Development projects for small rural communities in the Brazilian Amazon region as potential strategies and practices of climate change adaptation

Climate scenarios for the Amazon region (Brazil) indicate an increase in temperature and a precipitation decrease, affecting society and economic activities, particularly small-scale rural communities. The research aims to identify, describe and evaluate factors present in sustainable development projects for small rural communities (Type- A Demonstration Projects - PDA and Alternatives to Deforestation and Burnt Projects - PADEQ), already implemented, for recognizing its potential use as strategies for adaptation to climate change for small rural communities in the Amazon region. The researches, concerning fifteen projects in Rondonia, Para and Mato Grosso States, were developed through document analysis, technical visits, and interviews with stakeholders of three projects about the community perception, vulnerability and adaptation capacity. The analysis of documents regarding the potential success of the projects highlights their short history, important in the local context, prospects for continuity, and community participation in decision making. Few activities developed in projects could be associated with climate change adaptation practices. Two strategies and practices are the most important: the social organization and the process of awareness and training of the community, and the diversification of the types and forms of agricultural production. The interviews indicate that adaptation is implemented in projects, but without considering the pressures of climate variability and change. While these projects were not planned in the context of climate change, the greatest role of the projects relates to the strengthening of the already existing adaptation capacity, creating good conditions for incorporation of new strategies and adaptation measures, now clearly associated to the objective to reduce the vulnerability to climate change and variability impacts.     

Indicators for assessing Indonesia’s Javan rhino National Park vulnerability to climate change

Climate change is already affecting ecosystems in protected forest areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted its impacts will accelerate rapidly over the coming decades. The components of vulnerability have been defined as exposure, sensitivity and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability, however, is not an easy concept for policy makers, local communities and other affected stakeholders to understand. This paper illustrates the use of participatory processes in understanding climate change adaptation and defines indicators for assessing the vulnerability of the Javan rhino's national park habitat in Indonesia. The processes generated local vulnerability indicators, organised hierarchically as principles, criteria and indicators (PCIs). While vulnerability principles and criteria were pre-determined and globally defined, the indicators were designed to address the local context. We found the PCIs to be practical tools for communicating vulnerability and for multi-stakeholder dialogues on vulnerability to climate change.     

The Social Costs of Climate Change: The IPCC Second Assessment Report and Beyond

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 × CO₂). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review

Climate change, land degradation and drought affect millions of people living in drylands worldwide. With its food security depending almost entirely on irrigated agriculture, Central Asia is one of the arid regions highly vulnerable to water scarcity. Previous research of land and water use in the region has focused on improving water-use efficiency, soil management and identifying technical, institutional and agricultural innovations. However, vulnerability to climate change has rarely been considered, in spite of the imminent risks due to a higher-than-average warming perspective and the predicted melting of glaciers, which will greatly affect the availability of irrigation water. Using the Khorezm region in the irrigated lowlands of northwest Uzbekistan as an example, we identify the local patterns of vulnerability to climate variability and extremes. We look at on-going environmental degradation, water-use inefficiency, and barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and based on an extensive review of research evidence from the region, we present concrete examples of initiatives for building resilience and improving climate risk management. These include improving water use efficiency and changing the cropping patterns that have a high potential to decrease the exposure and sensitivity of rural communities to climate risks. In addition, changes in land use such as the afforestation of degraded croplands, and introducing resource-smart cultivation practices such as conservation agriculture, may strengthen the capacity of farmers and institutions to respond to climate challenges. As these can be out-scaled to similar environments, i.e. the irrigated cotton and wheat growing lowland regions in Central Asia and the Caucasus, these findings may be relevant for regions beyond the immediate geographic area from which it draws its examples.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for research capable of prioritising adaptation responses has evolved rapidly with an increasing awareness of climate change and its potential impacts on rural communities. Research into the climate-related vulnerability of Australian rural communities is only just beginning to emerge. Current research is dominated by hazard/impact modelling, drawing on a heritage of managing the risks posed by seasonal climate variability. There is a natural tendency to use the same risk management approach to understand the emergent nature of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore the consequences for policy advice of imperfectly examining vulnerability through the lens of an impact/hazard modelling approach to risk management. In a second paper in this series, we show how hazard/impact modelling can be complemented with more holistic measures of adaptive capacity to provide quantitative insights into the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change.     

Linking corporate climate adaptation strategies with resilience thinking

Within modern society, business organizations have a co-evolutionary relationship with society and ecosystems. Business organizations face highly diverse risks which they have to recognize, reflect on and handle. Climate change and its impacts clarify the need for managing overall system risk. Research has shown that climate vulnerability of business organizations in the German food industry is characterized by impacts that, in particular, affect business organizations indirectly. Indirect climate change caused impacts are complex, uncertain and characterized by a high degree of unpredictability. They focus on the derived social, ecological, economic and cultural consequences of the direct physical impacts from a worldwide perspective. This paper shows that introducing resilience thinking helps to identify strategic risks and opportunities coping with climate change caused impacts in sense of corporate climate adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it is shown from a strategic management perspective that mitigation is a profound element of long term adaptation strategies.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.     

Climate change and mining in Canada

Climate is an important component of the operating environment for the Canadian mining sector. However, in recent years mines across Canada have been affected by significant climatic hazards, several which are regarded to be symptomatic of climate change. For the mining sector, climate change is a pressing environmental threat and a significant business risk. The extent to which the mining sector is able to mitigate its own impact and adapt to climate change will affect its long-term success and prosperity, and have profound economic consequences for host communities. This paper draws upon case studies conducted with mining operations in Canada involving in-depth interviews with mining professionals and analysis of secondary sources to characterize the vulnerability of the Canadian mining industry to climate change. Five key findings are discussed: i) mines in the case studies are affected by climate events that are indicative of climate change, with examples of negative impacts over the past decade; ii) most mine infrastructure has been designed assuming that the climate is not changing; iii) most industry stakeholders interviewed view climate change as a minor concern; iv) limited adaption planning for future climate change is underway; v) significant vulnerabilities exist in the post-operational phase of mines. This paper argues for greater collaboration among mining companies, regulators, scientists and other industry stakeholders to develop practical adaptation strategies that can be integrated into existing and new mine operations, including in the post-operational phase.     

Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA

Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.     

Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change: The case of smallholder farmers in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor.     

Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) pose risks to coastal communities around the world, but societal understanding of the distributional and equity implications of SLR impacts and adaptation actions remains limited. Here, we apply a new analytic tool to identify geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of SLR, and to determine if and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportionate costs of adaptation. We use the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to identify socially vulnerable coastal communities, and combine this with output from a SLR coastal property model that evaluates threats of inundation and the economic efficiency of adaptation approaches to respond to those threats. Results show that under the mid-SLR scenario (66.9 cm by 2100), approximately 1,630,000 people are potentially affected by SLR. Of these, 332,000 (～20%) are among the most socially vulnerable. The analysis also finds that areas of higher social vulnerability are much more likely to be abandoned than protected in response to SLR. This finding is particularly true in the Gulf region of the United States, where over 99% of the most socially vulnerable people live in areas unlikely to be protected from inundation, in stark contrast to the least socially vulnerable group, where only 8% live in areas unlikely to be protected. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the equity and environmental justice implications of SLR in climate change policy analysis and coastal adaptation planning.     

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability perception and adaptation options around the East African region. Indicators of climate change and variability most appropriate for the region were derived from focused discussions involving key informants in various sectors of the economy drawn from three East African countries. Using these indicators, a structured questionnaire was developed from which surveys and interviews were done on selected sample of target population of farming communities in the Mt. Kenya region. The key highlights of the questionnaire were vulnerability and adaptation. Data obtained from respondents was standardized and subjected to multivariate and ANOVA analysis. Based on principle component analysis (PCA), two main vulnerability categories were identified namely the social and the bio-physical vulnerability indicators. Analysis of variance using Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant statistical variation (P ≤ 0.05) in the perceived vulnerability across the spatial distribution of the 198 respondents. Three insights were distinguished and were discernible by agro-ecological zones. Different vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity profiles were generated demonstrating the need for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation efforts at local level. There was a high correlation between the bio-physical and social factor/livelihood variables that were assessed.     

Institutional adaptive capacity and climate change response in the Congo Basin forests of Cameroon

Climate change presents additional challenges to a diverse country like Cameroon that shares the Congo Basin rainforest. Not only is the population vulnerable to the direct effects of climate change, forest-dependent communities are also vulnerable to changing environmental policy that may affect their access to forest resources. Using a qualitative approach to data collection through semi-structured interviews and content analysis of relevant documents, the perception of decision-makers within, and the response of the institutions of the state, the private sector and civil society to the complex challenges of climate change in the Congo Basin forest of Cameroon were analysed. Results indicate that while decision-makers’ awareness of climate change is high, a concrete institutional response is at a very early stage. Cameroon has low adaptive capacity that is further constrained by weak linkages among government institutions nationally and between different levels of government and with communities. Civil society institutions play a role in enhancing government capacity to respond, particularly in relation to new international policies on climate change and forests. Adaptive capacity would be further enhanced by facilitating institutional linkages and coordinating multilevel responses across all boundaries of government, private sector and civil society. A collaborative capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in Cameroon.     

Climate change adaptation trends in small island developing states

Small island developing states (SIDS) are among the countries in the world that are most vulnerable to climate change and required to adapt to its impacts. Yet, there is little information in the academic literature about how SIDS are adapting to climate change, across multiple countries and geographic regions. This paper helps to fill this gap. Using a sample of 16 countries across the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and South China Sea, Caribbean and Pacific regions, this study has two main aims, to identify (1) national-level adaptation trends across climate, climate-induced and non-climate-induced vulnerabilities, sectors and actors, as reported in National Communications (NCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and (2) typologies of national-level adaptation actions in SIDS. It identifies, codes and assesses 977 adaptation actions. These actions were reported as addressing 47 climate and climate-induced vulnerabilities and 50 non-climate-induced vulnerabilities and were undertaken in 37 sectors by 34 actors. The paper proposes five typologies of adaptation actions for SIDS, based on actions reported by SIDS. It specifically explores the implications of its findings for global adaptation strategies. As this work establishes a baseline of adaptation action in SIDS, it can assist national governments to gauge their adaptation progress, identify gaps in their adaptation effort and, thereafter, develop appropriate strategies for filling the gaps. It can also assist donors, whether bilateral or multilateral, to make more ‘climate-smart’ investment decisions by being able to identify the adaptation needs that are not being met in SIDS.     

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

We reviewed existing and planned adaptation activities of federal, tribal, state, and local governments and the private sector in the United States (U.S.) to understand what types of adaptation activities are underway across different sectors and scales throughout the country. Primary sources of review included material officially submitted for consideration in the upcoming 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment and supplemental peer-reviewed and grey literature. Although substantial adaptation planning is occurring in various sectors, levels of government, and the private sector, few measures have been implemented and even fewer have been evaluated. Most adaptation actions to date appear to be incremental changes, not the transformational changes that may be needed in certain cases to adapt to significant changes in climate. While there appear to be no one-size-fits-all adaptations, there are similarities in approaches across scales and sectors, including mainstreaming climate considerations into existing policies and plans, and pursuing no- and low-regrets strategies. Despite the positive momentum in recent years, barriers to implementation still impede action in all sectors and across scales. The most significant barriers include lack of funding, policy and institutional constraints, and difficulty in anticipating climate change given the current state of information on change. However, the practice of adaptation can advance through learning by doing, stakeholder engagements (including “listening sessions”), and sharing of best practices. Efforts to advance adaptation across the U.S. and globally will necessitate the reduction or elimination of barriers, the enhancement of information and best practice sharing mechanisms, and the creation of comprehensive adaptation evaluation metrics.     

Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.     

A framework for adapting urban forests to climate change

Planting urban trees and expanding urban forest canopy cover are often considered key strategies for reducing climate change impacts in urban areas. However, urban trees and forests can also be vulnerable to climate change through shifts in tree habitat suitability, changes in pests and diseases, and changes in extreme weather events. We developed a three-step framework for urban forest vulnerability assessment and adaptation that scales from regional assessment to local on-the-ground action. We piloted this framework in the Chicago region in 10 locations representing an urban-exurban gradient across a range of socioeconomic capacities. The majority of trees across a seven-county region had low to moderate vulnerability, but many of the least vulnerable species were nonnative invasive species. Urban forests in the 10 pilot locations ranged in vulnerability largely due to differences in economic and organizational adaptive capacity. Adaptation actions selected in these locations tended to focus on increased biodiversity and restoration of natural disturbance regimes. However, adaptation actions in more developed sites also included incorporating new species or cultivars. Lessons learned from the pilot area can be used to inform future efforts in other urban areas.     

Monetizing the impacts of climate change on the Greek mining sector

Nowadays, it is widely acknowledged that climate change will affect mining industry and may pose significant risks to the economic viability of mining enterprises. So far, the vast majority of recent research efforts on this subject have focused, not surprisingly, on mining activities operating in northern areas. Nevertheless, climate change is an issue that should be of concern for all mining industry, worldwide. For this reason, this paper addresses the impacts of climate change on mining industry in the Mediterranean Region, and specifically Greece, and attempts, for the first time, to estimate the cost of climate change-related risks to the sector by means of a ??top-down?? approach. Towards this direction, climate projections based on the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario (which refers to a fast global economic growth, global population that peaks mid-century and then decreases, and a rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies and a balanced energy source mix) for the time period 2021?C2050 are compared to climate data for the time period 1991?C2000, in order to quantify the impacts in physical terms. Then, both secondary and primary data sources are used to monetize the cost of climate change impacts to mining enterprises. Although there exist certain limitations in the research due to data unavailability, the study reveals the importance of the problem and provides useful findings. More specifically, the estimates indicate that Greece??s mining industry could face economic losses from climate change as high as US$0.8 billion. The cost of adaptation measures is about US$312 million, while that of mitigation measures that will burden the sector through the increased electricity prices is about US$478 million.     

Vulnerability of agro-ecological zones in India under the earth system climate model scenarios

India being a developing economy dependent on climate-sensitive sector like agriculture is highly vulnerable to impacts of global climate change. Vulnerability to climate change, however, differs spatially within the country owing to regional differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study uses the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) climate projections to assess the dynamics in vulnerability across four climate change exposure scenarios developed using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis was carried out at subnational (district) level; the results were interpreted and reported for their corresponding agro-ecological zones. Vulnerability of each district was quantified using indicators capturing climatic variability, ecological and demographic sensitivity, and socio-economic capacity. Our analysis further assigns probabilities to vulnerability classes of all the 579 districts falling under different agro-ecological zones. The results of the vulnerability profile show that Western plains, Northern plains, and central highlands of the arid and semi-arid agro-ecological zones are the most vulnerable regions in the current scenario (1950–2000). In the future scenario (2050), it extends along districts falling within Deccan plateau and Central (Malwa) highlands, lying in the arid and semi-arid zones, along with regions vulnerable in the current scenario, recording the highest vulnerability score across all exposure scenarios. These regions exhibit highest degree of variation in climatic parameters, ecological fragility, socio-economic marginality, and limited accessibility to resources, generating conditions of high vulnerability. The study emphasizes on the priority to take up adaptive management actions in the identified vulnerable districts to not only reduce risks of climate change, but also enhance their inherent capacity to withstand any future changes in climate. It provides a systematic approach to explicitly identify vulnerable regions, where regional planners and policy makers can build on existing adaptation decision-making by utilizing an interdisciplinary approach in the context of global change scenario.     

A Report on the Inter-regional Conference on Adaptation to Climate Change

The IPCC Third Assessment highlighted theneed for adaptation to climate change.Keeping in view the importance ofadaptation to climate change, particularlyin developing countries, DevelopmentAlternatives organised an Inter-regionalConference on Adaptation to Climate Change,during October 18-20, 2002, just before CoP8 at New Delhi. About 120 participants frommore than 20 countries, both developed anddeveloping, participated in the conference.The conference discussed vulnerability ofnatural and human systems and communitypractices to adapt to climate change. Theconference deliberated on training andcapacity building of communities forincreasing their resilience to adapt toadverse impacts of climate change. Theparticipants also came out with a set ofrecommendations for wider dissemination tovarious stakeholders during the COP 8 beingheld at New Delhi (from 23 October to 1November). The recommendations from theconference were used in the COP 8negotiations as well as the DelhiMinisterial Declaration. The ConferenceReport will provide a guideline for thedeveloping countries for initiating work onadaptation.