A VSA-Based Strategy for Placing Conservation Buffers in Agricultural Watersheds

Conservation buffers have the potential to reduce agricultural nonpoint source pollution and improve terrestrial wildlife habitat, landscape biodiversity, flood control, recreation, and aesthetics. Conservation buffers, streamside areas and riparian wetlands are being used or have been proposed to control agricultural nonpoint source pollution. This paper proposes an innovative strategy for placing conservation buffers based on the variable source area (VSA) hydrology. VSAs are small, variable but predictable portion of a watershed that regularly contributes to runoff generation. The VSA-based strategy involves the following three steps: first, identifying VSAs in landscapes based on natural characteristics such as hydrology, land use/cover, topography and soils; second, targeting areas within VSAs for conservation buffers; third, refining the size and location of conservation buffers based on other factors such as weather, environmental objectives, available funding and other best management practices. Building conservation buffers in VSAs allows agricultural runoff to more uniformly enter buffers and stay there longer, which increases the buffers capacity to remove sediments and nutrients. A field-scale example is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the within-VSA conservation buffer scenario relative to a typical edge-of-field buffer scenario. The results enhance the understanding of hydrological processes and interactions between agricultural lands and conservation buffers in agricultural landscapes, and provide practical guidance for land resource managers and conservationists who use conservation buffers to improve water quality and amenity values of agricultural landscape.     

GIS‐Based Predictive Models of Hillslope Runoff Generation Processes1

Abstract: Successful nonpoint source pollution control using best management practice placement is a complex process that requires in‐depth knowledge of the locations of runoff source areas in a watershed. Currently, very few simulation tools are capable of identifying critical runoff source areas on hillslopes and those available are not directly applicable under all runoff conditions. In this paper, a comparison of two geographic information system (GIS)‐based approaches: a topographic index model and a likelihood indicator model is presented, in predicting likely locations of saturation excess and infiltration excess runoff source areas in a hillslope of the Savoy Experimental Watershed located in northwest Arkansas. Based on intensive data collected from a two‐year field study, the spatial distributions of hydrologic variables were processed using GIS software to develop the models. The likelihood indicator model was used to produce probability surfaces that indicated the likelihood of location of both saturation and infiltration excess runoff mechanisms on the hillslope. Overall accuracies of the likelihood indicator model predictions varied between 81 and 87% for the infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff locations respectively. On the basis of accuracy of prediction, the likelihood indicator models were found to be superior (accuracy 81‐87%) to the predications made by the topographic index model (accuracy 69.5%). By combining statistics with GIS, runoff source areas on a hillslope can be identified by incorporating easily determined hydrologic measurements (such as bulk density, porosity, slope, depth to bed rock, depth to water table) and could serve as a watershed management tool for identifying critical runoff source areas in locations where the topographic index or other similar methods do not provide reliable results.     

Identifying hydrologically sensitive areas: bridging the gap between science and application

Researchers have noted that current water quality protection strategies, like nutrient management plans, lack a sound hydrological underpinning for pollutant transport processes. This is especially true for areas like the northeastern U.S. where copious research has shown that variable source area hydrology largely governs runoff generation. The goal of this study was to develop a scientifically justified method to identify the locations that generate overland flow. Furthermore, this methodology must be computationally simple enough that it can be utilized or incorporated into nutrient management plans and other established water quality tools. We specifically tested the reliability of the 'distance from a stream,'D(s), and the 'topographic index,'lambda, to predict areas with a high propensity for generating overland flow, i.e. hydrologically sensitive areas (HSA). HSAs were defined by their probability of generating runoff, P(sat), based on 30 year simulations using a physically based hydrological model. Using GIS, each location's P(sat) was correlated with D(s) and lambda. We used three Delaware Co., NY watersheds in the New York City watershed system with areas varying in size from 1.6 to 37 km2 and with forested and agricultural land uses. The topographic index gave stronger, more regionally consistent correlations with P(sat) than did D(s). Equations correlating lambda and P(sat) for each month are presented and can be used to estimate hydrological sensitivity in the region surrounding our study watersheds, i.e. in Delaware Co. This work is currently being incorporated into an Internet Mapping System to facilitate user-friendly, on-line identification of HSAs.     

Classification and spatial mapping of riparian habitat with applications toward management of streams impacted by nonpoint source pollution

Management of riparian habitats has been recognized for its importance in reducing instream effects of agricultural nonpoint source pollution. By serving as a buffer, well structured riparian habitats can reduce nonpoint source impacts by filtering surface runoff from field to stream. A system has been developed where key characteristics of riparian habitat, vegetation type, height, width, riparian and shoreline bank slope, and land use are classified as discrete categorical units. This classification system recognizes seven riparian vegetation types, which are determined by dominant plant type. Riparian and shoreline bank slope, in addition to riparian width and height, each consist of five categories. Classification by discrete units allows for ready digitizing of information for production of spatial maps using a geographic information system (GIS). The classification system was tested for field efficiency on Tom Beall Creek watershed, an agriculturally impacted third-order stream in the Clearwater River drainage, Nez Perce County, Idaho, USA. The classification system was simple to use during field applications and provided a good inventory of riparian habitat. After successful field tests, spatial maps were produced for each component using the Professional Map Analysis Package (pMAP), a GIS program. With pMAP, a map describing general riparian habitat condition was produced by combining the maps of components of riparian habitat, and the condition map was integrated with a map of soil erosion potential in order to determine areas along the stream that are susceptible to nonpoint source pollution inputs. Integration of spatial maps of riparian classification and watershed characteristics has great potential as a tool for aiding in making management decisions for mitigating off-site impacts of agricultural nonpoint source pollution.     

RUNOFF VOLUME ESTIMATION USING GIS TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall runoff of six watersheds was modeled via the Soil Conservation Service runoff curve number model in two ways: conventionally (manually) and via a geographic information system (GIS). Input data (elevation, soils, and landcover) were digital for the latter method. In contrast to previous studies, the GIS was ised for all phases of the modeling process, including watershed delineation and routing of runoff. A comparison between the two methods was consistent with results reported by others and indicates that the use of a GIS is an acceptable alternative to the conventional method for watersheds lacking relatively flat terrain. Given this limitation, the GIS method may prove advantageous over manual methods when study areas are large or numerous, runoff is modeled repetitively, alternative landcover scenarios are explored, or a digital database already exists for the study area.     

Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model

Land-use change, dominated by an increase in urban/impervious areas, has a significant impact on water resources. This includes impacts on nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, which is the leading cause of degraded water quality in the United States. Traditional hydrologic models focus on estimating peak discharges and NPS pollution from high-magnitude, episodic storms and successfully address short-term, local-scale surface water management issues. However, runoff from small, low-frequency storms dominates long-term hydrologic impacts, and existing hydrologic models are usually of limited use in assessing the long-term impacts of land-use change. A long-term hydrologic impact assessment (L-THIA) model has been developed using the curve number (CN) method. Long-term climatic records are used in combination with soils and land-use information to calculate average annual runoff and NPS pollution at a watershed scale. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS) for convenient generation and management of model input and output data, and advanced visualization of model results. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model was applied to the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. Historical land-use scenarios for 1973, 1984, and 1991 were analyzed to track land-use change in the watershed and to assess impacts on annual average runoff and NPS pollution from the watershed and its five subbasins. For the entire watershed between 1973 and 1991, an 18% increase in urban or impervious areas resulted in an estimated 80% increase in annual average runoff volume and estimated increases of more than 50% in annual average loads for lead, copper, and zinc. Estimated nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) loads decreased by 15% mainly because of loss of agricultural areas. The L-THIA/NPS GIS model is a powerful tool for identifying environmentally sensitive areas in terms of NPS pollution potential and for evaluating alternative land use scenarios for NPS pollution management.     

Development of a SWAT Patch for Better Estimation of Sediment Yield in Steep Sloping Watersheds1

Abstract: The watershed scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model divides watersheds into smaller subwatersheds for simulation of rainfall‐runoff and sediment loading at the field level and routing through stream networks. Typically, the SWAT model first needs to be calibrated and validated for accurate estimation through adjustment of sensitive input parameters (i.e., Curve Number values, USLE P, slope and slope‐length, and so on). However, in some instances, SWAT‐simulated results are greatly affected by the watershed delineation and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) cell size. In this study, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was developed for steep sloping watersheds, and its performance was evaluated for various threshold values and DEM cell size scenarios when delineating subwatersheds using the SWAT model. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was developed using the ArcView GIS Avenue program and Spatial Analyst libraries. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II improves upon the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch I because it reflects the topographic factor in calculating the field slope‐length of Hydrologic Response Units in the SWAT model. The simulated sediment value for 321 subwatersheds (watershed delineation threshold value of 25 ha) is greater than that for 43 subwatersheds (watershed delineation threshold value of 200 ha) by 201% without applying the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II. However, when the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was applied, the difference in simulated sediment yield decreases for the same scenario (i.e., difference in simulated sediment with 321 subwatersheds and 43 subwatersheds) was 12%. The simulated sediment value for DEM cell size of 50 m is greater than that for DEM cell size of 10 m by 19.8% without the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II. However, the difference becomes smaller (3.4% difference) between 50 and 10 m with the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II for the DEM scenarios. As shown in this study, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II can reduce differences in simulated sediment values for various watershed delineation and DEM cell size scenarios. Without the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II, variations in the SWAT‐simulated results using various watershed delineation and DEM cell size scenarios could be greater than those from input parameter calibration. Thus, the results obtained in this study show that the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II should be used when simulating hydrology and sediment yield for steep sloping watersheds (especially if average slope of the subwatershed is >25%) for more accurate simulation of hydrology and sediment using the SWAT model. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II is available at http://www.EnvSys.co.kr/~swat for free download.     

Visualizing riparian ecotone fragmentation in urbanizing watersheds: A case study of upper Hickory Creek,north‐Central Texas

Many pollution sources and heavy runoff often plague urbanizing watersheds. Riparian ecotones can filter pollutants and attenuate runoff; however, changing land cover tends to diminish this buffering capacity. Visualizing riparian ecotone fragmentation at the watershed scale can help prioritize management efforts. A geographic information systems approach was developed to illustrate land cover and soil properties affecting buffering potential along riparian corridors. An application to the Hickory Creek watershed in north‐central Texas shows significant riparian ecotone fragmentation, suggesting high‐priority areas for preservation and restoration.     

A Geospatial Methodology to Identify Locations of Concentrated Runoff from Agricultural Fields

A geospatial methodology has been developed that utilizes high resolution lidar‐derived DEMs to help track runoff from agricultural fields and identify areas of potential concentrated flow through vegetated riparian areas in the Coastal Plain of Virginia. Points of concentrated flow are identified across 74 agricultural fields within the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. On average, 70% of the surface area of the agricultural fields analyzed drains through less than 20 m of the field margin, and on average 81% of the field surface area drains through 1% or less of the field margin. Within the riparian buffer, locations that were predicted by the geospatial model to have high levels of concentrated flow were found to exhibit evidence of channelization. Results indicate that flow concentration and channelized flow through vegetated riparian areas may be common along the margin of agricultural fields, resulting in vegetated riparian areas that are less effective at sediment trapping than assumed. Additional results suggest that the regulations governing the location and width of vegetated riparian may not be sufficient to achieve goals for reducing sediment and nutrient runoff from nonpoint agricultural sources. Combined with the increasing availability of lidar‐derived DEMs, the geospatial model presented has the potential to advance management practices aimed at reducing nonpoint source pollution leaving agricultural fields.     

Farmers' Motivations for Adopting Conservation Practices along Riparian Zones in a Mid-western Agricultural Watershed

In the agricultural Mid-west, riparian corridors are vital for protecting biodiversity and water quality. The cumulative management decisions of hundreds of private landowners have a tremendous impact on this riparian zone. This study of 268 farmers in a typical Mid-western watershed in Michigan looked at farmer's motivations for adopting conservation practices, their current management practices along their rivers and drains as well as their future management plans. The results of the study showed that farmers are intrinsically motivated to practise conservation by such factors as their attachment to their land, rather than by motivations such as receiving economic compensation. Farmers are also likely to engage in conservation practices that make their farm appear well-managed. Furthermore, those farmers with strong intrinsic motivations were likely to adopt conservation practices that protect streams, such as maintaining a woody vegetative buffer or practicing no-till farming. This study shows that protecting riparian resources in agricultural watersheds requires strategies for conservation that respect farmers' attachment to their land and their desire to practise good stewardship.     

Prioritizing Agricultural Lands for Conservation Buffer Placement Using Multiple Criteria1

Qiu, Zeyuan, 2010. Prioritizing Agricultural Lands for Conservation Buffer Placement Using Multiple Criteria. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00466.x Abstract: Although conservation buffers are multifunctional, the current conservation buffer planning strategies tend to use a single criterion, most frequently a hydrological or soil condition indicator, to guide conservation buffer placement. This study presents a watershed planning approach that prioritizes agricultural lands for conservation buffers based on multiple selection criteria and applies the approach to Raritan Basin in central New Jersey. The multiple selection criteria include soil erodibility, hydrological sensitivity, wildlife habitat, and impervious surface rate. These criteria capture the conservation buffers’ benefits in reducing soil erosion, controlling runoff generation, enhancing wildlife habitat, and mitigating stormwater impacts, respectively. An expert panel was used to identify and define the section criteria, review the measured values of those criteria, and develop the classification scales that assign the class score to each criterion. The prioritization is based on the summation of the criteria class scores. About one-third of agricultural lands are prioritized for conservation buffers in Raritan Basin. The total program cost of converting those prioritized agricultural lands to conservation buffers in Raritan Basin is estimated to be between $54.8 and 102.9 million depending on the composition of installed conservation buffer practices.     

Landscape Planning for Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Reduction I: A Geographical Allocation Framework

Agricultural nonpoint source pollution remains a persistent environmental problem, despite the large amount of money that has been spent on its abatement. At local scales, agricultural best management practices (BMPs) have been shown to be effective at reducing nutrient and sediment inputs to surface waters. However, these effects have rarely been found to act in concert to produce measurable, broad-scale improvements in water quality. We investigated potential causes for this failure through an effort to develop recommendations for the use of riparian buffers in addressing nonpoint source pollution in Wisconsin. We used frequency distributions of phosphorus pollution at two spatial scales (watershed and field), along with typical stream phosphorus (P) concentration variability, to simulate benefit/cost curves for four approaches to geographically allocating conservation effort. The approaches differ in two ways: (1) whether effort is aggregated within certain watersheds or distributed without regard to watershed boundaries (dispersed), and (2) whether effort is targeted toward the most highly P-polluting fields or is distributed randomly with regard to field-scale P pollution levels. In realistic implementation scenarios, the aggregated and targeted approach most efficiently improves water quality. For example, with effort on only 10% of a model landscape, 26% of the total P load is retained and 25% of watersheds significantly improve. Our results indicate that agricultural conservation can be more efficient if it accounts for the uneven spatial distribution of potential pollution sources and the cumulative aspects of environmental benefits.     

Evaluating agricultural best management practices in tile-drained subwatersheds of the Mackinaw River, Illinois

Best management practices (BMPs) are widely promoted in agricultural watersheds as a means of improving water quality and ameliorating altered hydrology. We used a paired watershed approach to evaluate whether focused outreach could increase BMP implementation rates and whether BMPs could induce watershed-scale (4000 ha) changes in nutrients, suspended sediment concentrations, or hydrology in an agricultural watershed in central Illinois. Land use was >90% row crop agriculture with extensive subsurface tile drainage. Outreach successfully increased BMP implementation rates for grassed waterways, stream buffers, and strip-tillage within the treatment watershed, which are designed to reduce surface runoff and soil erosion. No significant changes in nitrate-nitrogen (NO-N), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved reactive phosphorus, total suspended sediment (TSS), or hydrology were observed after implementation of these BMPs over 7 yr of monitoring. Annual NO-N export (39-299 Mg) in the two watersheds was equally exported during baseflow and stormflow. Mean annual TP export was similar between the watersheds (3.8 Mg) and was greater for TSS in the treatment (1626 ± 497 Mg) than in the reference (940 ± 327 Mg) watershed. Export of TP and TSS was primarily due to stormflow (>85%). Results suggest that the BMPs established during this study were not adequate to override nutrient export from subsurface drainage tiles. Conservation planning in tile-drained agricultural watersheds will require a combination of surface-water BMPs and conservation practices that intercept and retain subsurface agricultural runoff. Our study emphasizes the need to measure conservation outcomes and not just implementation rates of conservation practices.     

Riparian buffers and potentially unstable ground

The spatial coincidence between riparian buffers of various widths and extents and potentially unstable ground was quantified using a physically based model for shallow landslide initiation and GIS for two watersheds on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA. The proportion of the potentially unstable ground in each watershed within riparian buffers is a function of both buffer width and the extent of the stream channel network being buffered. While current buffers required by Washington State cover less than 5% of the potentially unstable ground, buffering all stream channels in these watersheds with 100-m buffers covered 75%–90% of the potentially unstable areas. Our analyses further show that: (1) riparian buffers are not efficient mechanisms for protecting potentially unstable ground, and (2) identifying potentially unstable ground using a physically based model should prove more effective for designing methods to reduce shallow landsliding hazards than relying on extensive buffer zones along stream channels.     

Agricultural practices influence flow regimes of headwater streams in western Iowa

Agricultural tillage influences runoff and infiltration, but consequent effects on watershed hydrology are poorly documented. This study evaluated 25 yr (1971-1995) hydrologic records from four first-order watersheds in Iowa's loess hills. Two watersheds were under conventional tillage and two were under conservation (ridge) tillage, one of which was terraced. All four watersheds grew corn (Zea mays L.) every year. Flow-frequency statistics and autoregressive modeling were used to determine how conservation treatments influenced stream hydrology. The autoregressive modeling characterized variations in discharge, baseflow, and runoff at multi-year, annual, and shorter time scales. The ridge-tilled watershed (nonterraced) had 47% less runoff and 36% more baseflow than the conventional watershed of similar landform and slope. Recovery of baseflow after drought was quicker in the conservation watersheds, as evidenced by 365-d moving average plots, and 67% greater baseflow during the driest 2 yr. The two conventional watersheds were similar, except the steeper watershed discharged more runoff and baseflow during short (<30 d), wet periods. Significant multi-year and annual cycles occurred in all variables. Under ridge-till, seasonal (annual-cycle) variations in baseflow had greater amplitude, showing the seasonality of subsurface contaminant movement could increase under conservation practices. However, deviations from the modeled cycles of baseflow were also more persistent under conservation practices, indicating baseflow was more stable. Indeed, flow-frequency curves showed wet-weather discharge decreased and dry-weather discharge increased under conservation practices. Although mean discharge increased in the conservation watersheds, variance and skewness of daily values were smaller. Ridge tillage with or without terraces increased stream discharge but reduced its variability.     

Improving lake riparian source area management using surface and subsurface runoff indices

Sensitivity indices, which rank factors pertinent to surface and subsurface runoff pathways, were used to identify phosphorus source areas in riparian zones of 15 northern Minnesota lakes. Watershed models were first developed using a geographic information system (GIS). Empirical models were then developed correlating water quality with land use, lake morphometry, and riparian sensitivity. Base models of forested, cultivated, pasture/open, wetland and residential land use within 100, 200, 400, and 2000 m of the study lakes were regressed on total phosphorus and chlorophyll-a. Area-weighted groundwater and surface runoff sensitivity indices were then incorporated into each model and tested for significance. Within the 200-m buffer, the total phosphorus base model was improved by including the groundwater index alone. The chlorophyll-a base model at 200 m was improved by including: (1) the groundwater index alone, and (2) both the groundwater and surface runoff sensitivity indices. Results suggest that surface and subsurface runoff analysis of potential source areas can improve decision making for lake riparian management.     

Soil and water conservation method adoption in a highly erosive watershed: the case of Southwest Oklahoma's Fort Cobb watershed

A major source of pollution in agricultural landscapes is surface runoff and non-point source pollution generated from agricultural production practices. In-stream, stream bank and riparian conservation/management practices can be implemented to reduce sediment loading solely or in conjunction with upland practices. Survey results from producers in the Fort Cobb Reservoir watershed, a highly erosive watershed in southwest Oklahoma with a history of state and federal conservation programs, provide information required for improving understanding of operators’ likelihood of adoption. Two models of soil and water conservation were estimated, a logit model of likelihood of enrollment and a Poisson model of the total number of practices adopted. Results reinforced previous findings that attitudes, gender and education influence conservation program enrollment. Farming experience, gender and attitudes towards conservation increased the total number of practices adopted.     

WATERSHED SCALE INVENTORY OF EXISTING RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI USING GIS1

An observational study was conducted at the watershed scale using land cover (vegetation) data to assess the absence or presence of riparian buffers in three northeastern Missouri watersheds. Forests and grasslands lying within a 61 m (200 ft) parallel band directly adjacent to streams were considered “buffers” for improving or protecting water quality and were characterized according to their length, width, and vegetation type. Results indicated that riparian buffers were abundant throughout the watersheds but were typically narrow along first‐order and second‐order streams; in many cases they may not have been wide enough to provide adequate stream protection. At least 90 percent of all streams had buffer vegetation immediately adjacent to the streambanks, but as few as 31 percent of first‐order streams had buffers extending to 61 m from the stream on at least one side. On‐site evaluations are needed to determine the condition of these forests and grasslands and their ability to process nonpoint source pollutants. The results will be useful for providing natural resource managers with knowledge of current watershed conditions as well as in identifying specific locations for future conservation efforts within each watershed.     

Comparison of Indexes for Prioritizing Placement of Water Quality Buffers in Agricultural Watersheds1

Dosskey, Michael G. and Zeyuan Qiu, 2011. Comparison of Indexes for Prioritizing Placement of Water Quality Buffers in Agricultural Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):662‐671. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00532.x Abstract: Five physically based, spatially distributed, empirical indexes were compared for the degree to which they identified the same or different locations in watersheds where vegetative buffers would function better for reducing agricultural nonpoint source pollution. All five indexes were calculated on a 10 m × 10 m digital elevation grid on agricultural land in the 144‐km² Neshanic River watershed in New Jersey. The indexes included the topography‐based Wetness Index (WI) and Topographic Index (TI) and three soil survey‐based indexes (sediment trapping efficiency [STE], water trapping efficiency [WTE], and groundwater interaction [GI]). Results showed that each index associated higher pollution risk and mitigation potential to a different part of the landscape. The WI and TI identified swales and riparian areas where runoff converges, whereas STE and WTE identified upland sites. The STE and WTE lack the fine scale of slope resolution and the accounting for convergent runoff patterns that can be important for properly locating buffers in some watersheds. The GI index indicates the existence of a shallow water table but the correspondence with WI‐ and TI‐identified sites was only modest. For watersheds where pollutant loading is generated by both saturation‐excess (emphasized by TI and WI) and infiltration‐excess processes (emphasized by STE and WTE), the indexes could be complementary. However, techniques would be needed for properly apportioning priority among sites identified by each index.     

SUSCEPTIBILITY OF INDIANA WATERSHEDS TO HERBICIDE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: An index of watershed susceptibility to surface water contamination by herbicides could be used to improve source water assessments for public drinking water supplies, prioritize watershed restoration projects, and direct funding and educational efforts to areas where the greatest environmental benefit can be realized. The goal of this study is to use streamflow and herbicide concentration data to develop and evaluate a method for estimating comparative watershed susceptibility to herbicide loss. United States Geological Survey (USGS) concentration data for five relatively water soluble herbicides (alachlor, atrazine, cyanazine, metolachlor, and simazine) were analyzed for 16 Indiana watersheds. Correlation was assessed between observed herbicide losses and: (1) a herbicide runoff index using GIS‐based land use, soil type, SCS runoff curve number, tillage practice, herbicide use estimates, and combinations of these factors; and (2) predicted herbicide losses from a non‐point source pollution model (NAPRA‐Web, an Internet‐based interface for GLEAMS). The highest adjusted R²value was found between herbicide concentration and the runoff curve number alone, ranging from 0.25 to 0.56. Predictions from the simulation model showed a poorer correlation with observed herbicide loss. This indicates potential for using the runoff curve number as a simple herbicide contamination susceptibility index.