考虑心理阈值的突发事件多部门应急决策动态调整方法

针对多部门协同参与应急决策并执行应急方案的情形,提出一种考虑心理阈值的多部门应急决策动态调整方法。首先,将各部门的心理参照点作为识别框架,合成各部门心理参照点的基本概率分配,得到部门协同心理参照点;然后,引入心理阈值区间量化描述决策部门的心理行为,并结合部门协同心理参照点,得到不同情景关于经济损失和人员伤亡的满意度,进而合成情景属性满意度,计算各备选方案的总体满意度,并对方案排序择优;最后,通过案例分析验证本文提出方法的有效性和适用性。     

基于DEMATEL的机械生产人员行为形成关键因子分析

针对机械生产人员安全行为形成受多种因素交互影响的问题,提出了一种基于模糊数学和DEMATEL法耦合的机械生产人员行为形成关键因子量化分析方法。首先,运用行为形成因子分析方法确定机械生产人员作业行为影响因素,构建了包含5个因子大类和24个因子因素的机械生产人员行为形成因子体系,然后运用三角模糊数表征因素间的关联程度,并通过问卷调查获取数据,从而借助DEMATEL法构建机械生产人员行为形成关键因子分析模型。最后,通过一个算例,说明所提出分析模型的运用过程。结果表明,所建立的方法可以定量确定机械生产人员行为形成关键因子。     

Implementing risk management to reduce injuries in the U.S. Fire Service

IntroductionRisk management, a proactive process to identify and mitigate potential injury risks and implement control strategies, was used to reduce the risk of occupational injury in a fire department. The objective of this research was to study the implementation of the risk management process for future replication. A second objective was to document changes in fire personnel's knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to the selected control strategies that were implemented as part of the risk management process.MethodA number of control strategies identified through the risk management process were implemented over a 2-year period beginning in January 2011. Approximately 450 fire personnel completed each of the three cross-sectional surveys that were administered throughout the implementation periods. Fire personnel were asked about their awareness, knowledge, and use of the control strategies.ResultsFire personnel were generally aware of the control strategies that were implemented. Visual reminders (e.g., signage) were noted as effective by fire personnel who noticed them. Barriers to use of specific control strategies such as new procedures on the fireground or new lifting equipment for patient transfer included lack of knowledge of the new protocols, lack of awareness/access to/availability of the new equipment, and limited training on its use. Implementation challenges were noted, which limited self-reported adherence to the control strategies.ConclusionsFire personnel generally recognized the potential for various control strategies to manage risk and improve their health and safety; however, implementation challenges limited the effectiveness of certain control strategies. The study findings support the importance of effective implementation to achieve the desired impacts of control strategies for improving health and safety.Practical applicationsEmployees must be aware of, have knowledge about, and receive training in safety and health interventions in order to adopt desired behaviors.     

Amalgam in Dentistry A Health Hazard for Dental Personnel?

In a cross sectional study done in 1993 among dental personnel in Norrbotten, self-reported prevalence of muscular pain, headache, tremor, insomnia, irritation, impaired memory and depression, as well as information regarding different mercury exposures were collected Mercury exposures were determined as “number of amalgam fillings in teeth,” “years in practice,” “insufficient ventilation at work,” “total number of amalgam removed, produced and polished per day,” and “working in dental clinics.” As controls, physicians and nurses from the same geographical area were selected. The correlation between symptoms and different mercury exposures was calculated using logistic regression. The results suggested a higher prevalence of muscular fatigue and tremor for female dental personnel compared to controls Controls reported a lower prevalence of symptoms with increasing number of amalgam fillings in teeth. There was no correlation between the number of amalgam fillings handled per day and symptoms for dental personnel. Male dental personnel associated muscular fatigue headache, impaired memory, and depression with increased handling of amalgam in the clinic’ whereas the female dental personnel associated the same symptoms with the number of amalgam fillings in teeth. The strongest correlation was found between symptoms and insufficient ventilation at dental clinics for dental personnel.     

考虑多因素涌现的车间作业人员安全能力模型

为了构建多因素涌现作用形成的车间人员安全能力结构模型,提出了一种基于DEMATEL法的人员安全能力建模方法。首先,在现有人员安全能力相关研究的基础上,界定人员安全能力及涌现的概念,并由此分析车间作业人员安全能力的影响因素,建立人员安全能力因素集;然后,借助问卷调查和DEMATEL法确定人员安全能力影响因素的中心度和原因度,从而分析车间作业人员安全能力影响因素的作用关系;最后,通过一个实证分析说明所提出的建模方法,并建立人员安全能力结构模型。研究结果表明,所提出的建模方法可以用于构建涌现条件下的人员安全能力结构模型。     

Measurements and predictions of harmful releases of the gathering station over the mountainous terrain

Having a risk analysis of harmful releases over mountainous terrains through wind tunnel experiment is a frontier problem in China. In this paper, a straight-flow wind tunnel is applied to simulate the atmospheric boundary layer and research the motion of high-sulfur gas released to atmosphere when accidental releases occur in a gathering station over the mountainous terrain. After an analysis of hourly concentration in the field accident for eight wind directions, experimental results reveal that nearby concentration fields are dominated by wind and far-field concentration distribution is dominated by topography, which leads to complete levels of consequence impact for the personnel risk inside and around the gathering station. Based on CFD techniques, a three-dimensional modelling was established in comparison with the wind tunnel experiment, which suggests that CFD prediction had underestimated the near-field gas concentration and the performance could not precisely match actual risks the gathering station causes to the mountainous terrain, which leads to a modified equation for numerical prediction. Instead of proposing a lower personnel risk evaluation obtained through the use of CFD techniques, the wind tunnel experiment offers a new choice for the consequence impact analysis for the petrochemical industry in China.     

单洞双线铁路隧道火灾人员疏散安全性分析

为了分析单洞双线铁路隧道火灾人员疏散安全性，基于单洞双线铁路隧道结构特点，分析不同火灾场景下人员疏散模式，利用火灾动力学模拟软件FDS，建立隧道火灾模型，分别研究火源位于车头和列车中部车厢内时可用安全疏散时间。利用Pathfinder软件，模拟人员折返路线与不同疏散口间距下人员疏散过程，分析必需安全疏散时间及其影响因素。研究结果表明:隧道发生火灾时，人员可用安全疏散时间与火源位置有关，必需安全疏散时间受疏散总人数、疏散口选择、疏散口间距等因素影响很大。在设计隧道疏散系统时，可通过减小疏散口间距和设置明显的疏散设施指示标识，减少人员疏散所用时间。     

Organization–environment adaptation: A macro‐level shift in modeling work distress and morale

We theorized that organization–environment adaptation, the interaction between external demands and personnel resources, predicts distress and morale. We tested this hypothesis in 29 stations within one state police department, and combined three data sources. We measured environmental demands for policing via census data pertaining to the station precinct (e.g., per cent unemployed; per cent in public housing). We assessed resources via personnel numbers within stations. Outcomes were employee's perceptions of staff distress and morale at the station (N = 247), assessed twice, 14 months apart. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we found that environmental demands predicted perceptions of workgroup distress and morale and that the relationships were moderated by personnel resources. For distress, when resources were low, demands were positively associated with distress; when resources were high, demands were negatively associated with distress. For morale, when resources were high, demands were positively associated with morale; there was no relationship when resources were low. Results show that aversive and pleasurable reactions at work may be traced to how resources are employed to manage external demands. Results support a macro‐level shift in modeling distress and morale, incorporating external demands, and strategic management decisions regarding personnel resourcing. Our research suggests that rather than being a result of individual failure to adapt, compromised work ability may result from an organizational failure to adapt to the environmental context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

建筑物火灾时人员疏散时间模型研究

在建筑物火灾中,人员安全疏散与人员的生命安全直接相关.人员能否安全疏散主要取决于疏散到安全区所用时间的长短,人员疏散时间在考虑建筑物结构和人员距离安全区的远近等环境因素的同时,还必须综合考虑处于火灾等紧急情况下人员的自然状况和人员心理及行为特征.本文在组织人员应急疏散演习测量个体疏散时间的基础上,结合影响人员疏散行为和疏散时间的相关因素,采用世界先进统计软件SPSS12 for Windows进行多元线性回归分析,建立人员疏散时间回归模型.该研究技术科学、先进,结果可信.研究结果将充实我国人员疏散心理和行为反应数据库,为建筑防火性能化设计,尤其是设计人员密集建筑提供基础数据和初步的分析.     

An intervention program utilizing small groups: A comparative study

Thirteen small groups were employed in an intervention program to improve housekeeping and safety conducted at a shipyard. Two main tasks were given to the small groups, which were formed specifically for the one-year program. First, the groups had to solve practical problems in housekeeping to eliminate the obstacles of good housekeeping. Then they had to establish new work practices for the maintenance of a good housekeeping level by using the elements of the behavior modification technique. The groups were responsible for all the actions taken in their own department. Comparative material was gathered about the process and the outcome of the program. The program was successful in improving housekeeping and safety at the shipyard. Differences were noted between the departments, however. In the best departments the small groups worked very actively and succeeded in involving the other personnel into the program. With careful design and coordination, the program using small groups can successfully be applied for improving safety performance in industry.     

加拿大油田安全管理的经验与建议

加拿大建立了健全的政府能源管理机构,有完善的油气开发安全法规和标准体系。安全监督部门对石油天然气企业的监督检查表现为：确定重点监督检查企业,确保专业监督检查人员执法质量,加大监督检查处罚力度,促进安全管理水平的提高。油气企业安全管理与操作人员培训由专业培训机构承担,特别重视井控和防硫化氢培训,所有一线作业人员接受ENFORM的培训后,其上岗资格才为企业和安全环保监督部门认可。笔者就加拿大油田的开发安全管理经验,结合国内实际提出建议：应建立完善健全的安全生产数据库管理系统,为企业安全生产管理提供依据,健全事故上报制度;提高企业安全文化水平,营造良好的安全工作环境;加强承包商安全生产管理,共建甲乙双方和谐安全环境。     

基于FDA模型的地铁列车洪淹事故致因分析*

为了从安全信息视角探究地铁列车洪淹事故原因,基于FDA（Forecast-Decision-Action）事故致因模型和真实事故案例,构建由个体（地铁行车人员）、自组织（地铁运营企业）和他组织（应急主管部门）3个事故致因子模型组成的地铁列车洪淹事故FDA致因模型,并针对安全管理重要环节提出事故预防建议。研究结果表明:阻断事故致因主链或子链、保证必要安全信息充分且完备、防范安全欺骗行为,可有效预防地铁列车洪淹事故,通过实证案例分析验证FDA模型可显著提升地铁防洪应急管理水平。     

政府购买第三方安全监管服务模式探讨

针对我国中小型企业安全管理人员水平参差不齐及相关部门监管人员不足、监管力度有限而出现的政府购买第三方安全监管服务模式,作者从其服务模式的背景、内容和运作方式进行分析,结果显示:这种服务模式可以作为政府监管力量的补充,并获得了企业的认可。     

国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才现状研究

依据对我国国有重点煤矿企业抽样调查的结果,着重对国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才的总量、密度、结构、流失等进行了系统的分析,并与美国煤炭行业的人才状况进行了比较分析。笔者在此基础上,给出了国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才现状的基本评价,国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才断层已经出现,安全科技人才总量严重不足,人才的问题已经开始制约煤炭行业的发展,尤其是严重制约着煤炭行业建立安全生产长效机制;对进一步加强和优化国有重点煤矿企业安全科技人才队伍建设提供了可靠的依据,具有重要指导意义。     

Allowing for MSD prevention during facilities planning for a public service: an a posteriori analysis of 10 library design projects.

Research was conducted to identify an ergonomics-based intervention model designed to factor in musculoskeletal disorder (MSD) prevention when library projects are being designed. The first stage of the research involved an a posteriori analysis of 10 recent redesign projects. The purpose of the analysis was to document perceptions about the attention given to MSD prevention measures over the course of a project on the part of 2 categories of employees: librarians responsible for such projects and personnel working in the libraries before and after changes. Subjects were interviewed in focus groups. Outcomes of the analysis can guide our ergonomic assessment of current situations and contribute to a better understanding of the way inclusion or improvement of prevention measures can support the workplace design process.     

急上高原人员疏散速度修正的台阶试验研究*

为解决高原铁路隧道人员安全疏散问题,基于台阶试验对急上高原人员运动能力进行研究,并基于现场测试、理论分析、资料调研等对不同海拔高度处急上高原人员疏散速度基础参数进行研究。结果表明:得出平原世居者在急上高原时的运动能力下降规律,并通过对比不同拟合类型,得出急上高原者在不同海拔下人员疏散速度折减系数公式;基于海拔和坡度对人员运动的影响,得出高海拔铁路隧道人员疏散速度基础参数。研究结果可为高海拔铁路隧道人员疏散理论分析、仿真模拟及性能化设计提供基础数据支持。     

地震震后埋压人员伤情程度分级研究

地震震后救援的重点对象是被埋压的伤员,为了在实施救援之前对伤员受伤程度进行准确判断,进一步弥补目前针对埋压人员伤情判断缺少统一标准的不足。基于现有文献在地震震后人员受伤特点以及分级救援等方面已有成果,对地震埋压的形成、救援、伤亡情况进行统计和分析。通过对埋压伤员损害因素以及对救援的影响因素进行综合分析,对埋压伤员的损伤进行分类,进而确定对地震震后埋压伤员的损伤分级指标及其优先顺序。最后,以其他类似分级标准为参考,对各指标进行分级演绎,制定出综合分级表,为伤员损伤程度的分级标准化提供一定的参考,研究结果有助于震后应急救援资源配置的优化,进而提高整体救援效率。     

基于博弈论的轨道交通建设项目安全投入与监管行为分析

研究在轨道交通施工中如何采取合理安全投入和安全监管等手段加强建设项目管理水平,通过博弈论的相关理论和分析方法,剖析轨道交通建设施工企业自身的安全投入行为与安全监管部门的监管行为之间的关系,并以某企业为例进行具体说明。研究结果表明:轨道交通建设项目的安全监管稳定状态与施工企业的安全投入、事故后企业损失、监管部门执行安全监管的成本、企业违规受到的处罚力度以及监管部门由于失职受到的处罚等因素有关,其中,随着监管部门对安全监管投入的增加以及对施工企业违规处罚力度的加强,监管部门将获得更高的收益,而施工企业按照规定进行安全投入的概率也将进一步加大。研究为监管部门制定相关安全监管策略时提供支持和参考。     

疏散规模对亚区域人群疏散过程影响的模拟研究

为了研究不同疏散规模对疏散动态特征的影响,基于矢量模型构建城市亚区域人员疏散模型,采用个体行为模拟技术和矢量二维连续空 间解析方法对城市亚区域疏散中的个体行为进行模拟。通过设置不同的疏散规模,在Legion平台模拟分析疏散人口数对疏散运动时间、疏散速 率、空间使用率人员密度等疏散动态特征的影响。结果表明,随着疏散人数的增加,总疏散运动时间变长,但其变化率远低于疏散人数变化率 ;最大疏散速率增大,但出现最大疏散速率的时间随之延后;空间使用率增加,沿小区次干路、主干路到小区出口变化明显;拥堵情况增加, 小区主干路、次干路与主干路交叉口及小区出口处拥堵较为严重。     

双出口疏散吸引区域模型建立与模拟分析

为研究建筑体内人员疏散的出口选择行为,提出基于元胞自动机的人员疏散模型。以学校常见的双出口教室为例进行研究,建立双出口疏散吸引区域模型,得出人员密度较低和较高时疏散吸引区域边界的函数表达式,指出人员密度较高时,边界函数基本满足边界到出口距离的平方之比等于出口的宽度之比;通过对出口宽度、人员数量和出口位置等参量进行仿真分析,充分验证了提出的双出口疏散吸引区域模型的合理性;研究结果有助于合理分配疏散人员,充分发挥建筑疏散的潜在能力。