Fire severity and ecosytem responses following crown fires in California shrublands

Chaparral shrublands burn in large high-intensity crown fires. Managers interested in how these wildfires affect ecosystem processes generally rely on surrogate measures of fire intensity known as fire severity metrics. In shrublands burned in the autumn of 2003, a study of 250 sites investigated factors determining fire severity and ecosystem responses. Using structural equation modeling we show that stand age, prefire shrub density, and the shortest interval of the prior fire history had significant direct effects on fire severity, explaining > 50% of the variation in severity. Fire severity per se is of interest to resource managers primarily because it is presumed to be an indicator of important ecosystem processes such as vegetative regeneration, community recovery, and erosion. Fire severity contributed relatively little to explaining patterns of regeneration after fire. Two generalizations can be drawn: fire severity effects are mostly shortlived, i.e., by the second year they are greatly diminished, and fire severity may have opposite effects on different functional types. Species richness exhibited a negative relationship to fire severity in the first year, but fire severity impacts were substantially less in the second postfire year and varied by functional type. Much of this relationship was due to alien plants that are sensitive to high fire severity; at all scales from 1 to 1000 m2, the percentage of alien species in the postfire flora declined with increased fire severity. Other aspects of disturbance history are also important determinants of alien cover and richness as both increased with the number of times the site had burned and decreased with time since last fire. A substantial number of studies have shown that remote-sensing indices are correlated with field measurements of fire severity. Across our sites, absolute differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) was strongly correlated with field measures of fire severity and with fire history at a site but relative dNBR was not. Despite being correlated with fire severity, absolute dNBR showed little or no relationship with important ecosystem responses to wildfire such as shrub resprouting or total vegetative regeneration. These findings point to a critical need for further research on interpreting remote sensing indices as applied to postfire management of these shrublands.     

Fire Management,Managed Relocation,and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate,Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios     

Evidence, exaggeration, and error in historical accounts of chaparral wildfires in California.

For more than half a century, ecologists and historians have been integrating the contemporary study of ecosystems with data gathered from historical sources to evaluate change over broad temporal and spatial scales. This approach is especially useful where ecosystems were altered before formal study as a result of natural resources management, land development, environmental pollution, and climate change. Yet, in many places, historical documents do not provide precise information, and pre-historical evidence is unavailable or has ambiguous interpretation. There are similar challenges in evaluating how the fire regime of chaparral in California has changed as a result of fire suppression management initiated at the beginning of the 20th century. Although the firestorm of October 2003 was the largest officially recorded in California (approximately 300,000 ha), historical accounts of pre-suppression wildfires have been cited as evidence that such a scale of burning was not unprecedented, suggesting the fire regime and patch mosaic in chaparral have not substantially changed. We find that the data do not support pre-suppression megafires, and that the impression of large historical wildfires is a result of imprecision and inaccuracy in the original reports, as well as a parlance that is beset with hyperbole. We underscore themes of importance for critically analyzing historical documents to evaluate ecological change. A putative 100 mile long by 10 mile wide (160 x 16 km) wildfire reported in 1889 was reconstructed to an area of chaparral approximately 40 times smaller by linking local accounts to property tax records, voter registration rolls, claimed insurance, and place names mapped with a geographical information system (GIS) which includes data from historical vegetation surveys. We also show that historical sources cited as evidence of other large chaparral wildfires are either demonstrably inaccurate or provide anecdotal information that is immaterial in the appraisal of pre-suppression fire size. Since historical evidence is inadequate for reconstructing a statistical distribution of pre-suppression fire sizes to compare with post-suppression data, other more propitious methods of evaluating change are discussed.     

Simulation of the Effect of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Fire Regimes on the Population Viability of a Banksia Species

Populations of plants that rely on seeds for recovery from disturbance by fire (obligate seeders) are sensitive to regimes of frequent fire. Obligate seeders are prominent in fire-prone heathlands of southern Australia and South Africa. Population extinction may occur if there are successive fires during a plant's juvenile period. Research on the population biology of obligate seeders has influenced the management of fire in these heath and shrublands, but work on the effects of the spatial variability of fires is lacking. We hypothesize that extinction maybe avoided under an adverse fire frequency if fires are patchy. We present a model that simulates the effects of spatial and temporal variations in fire regimes on the viability of a plant population in a grid landscape. Seedling establishment, maturation, senescence, and seed dispersal determine the presence or absence of plants in each cell. We used values typical of serotinous Banksia species to estimate probability of extinction in relation to fire frequency and size. We examined the sensitivity of predictions to dispersal, senescence, fire frequency, spatial burning pattern and size variance, and the size of the grid. Simulations 200 years in length indicated that extinction probability was lowest when mean fire frequency was intermediate and mean fire size was large. When fire frequency was high, extinction probability was high irrespective of fire size. Senescence was more important than high-frequency fire as a cause of extinction in cells. Interactions between dispersal, fire frequency, and size were complex, indicating that extinction is governed by intercell connectivity. The model indicates that fire patchiness cannot be assumed to ensure avoidance of extinction of populations. Conservation of populations is most likely when fire patchiness is relatively low—when the size of fires is moderate to large and when burned patches are contiguous.     

Human influence on California fire regimes.

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.     

Forest floor depth mediates understory vigor in xeric Pinus palustris ecosystems.

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) woodlands and savannas are among the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world with fire return intervals of 1-10 years. This fire regime has maintained high levels of biodiversity in terms of both species richness and endemism. Land use changes have reduced the area of this ecosystem by >95%, and inadequate fire frequencies threaten many of the remnants today. In the absence of frequent fire, rapid colonization of hardwoods and shrubs occurs, and a broad-leaved midstory develops. This midstory encroachment has been the focus of much research and management concern, largely based on the assumption that the midstory reduces understory plant diversity through direction competition via light interception. The general application of this mechanism of degradation is questionable, however, because midstory density, leaf area, and hardwood species composition vary substantially along a soil moisture gradient from mesic to extremely xeric sites. Reanalysis of recently reported data from xeric longleaf pine communities suggests that the development of the forest floor, a less conspicuous change in forest structure, might cause a decline in plant biodiversity when forests remain unburned. We report here a test of the interactions among fire, litter accumulation, forest floor development, and midstory canopy density on understory plant diversity. Structural equation modeling showed that within xeric sites, forest floor development was the primary factor explaining decreased biodiversity. The only effects of midstory development on biodiversity were those mediated through forest floor development. Boundary line analysis of functional guilds of understory plants showed sensitivity to even minor development of the forest floor in the absence of fire. These results challenge the prevailing management paradigm and suggest that within xeric longleaf pine communities, the primary focus of managed fire regime should be directed toward the restoration of forest floor characteristics rather than the introduction of high-intensity fires used to regulate midstory structure.     

Simulating dynamic and mixed-severity fire regimes: A process-based fire extension for LANDIS-II

Fire regimes result from reciprocal interactions between vegetation and fire that may be further affected by other disturbances, including climate, landform, and terrain. In this paper, we describe fire and fuel extensions for the forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, that allow dynamic interactions among fire, vegetation, climate, and landscape structure, and incorporate realistic fire characteristics (shapes, distributions, and effects) that can vary within and between fire events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the new extensions using two case study examples with very different ecosystem characteristics: a boreal forest system from central Labrador, Canada, and a mixed conifer system from the Sierra Nevada Mountains (California, USA). In Labrador, comparison between the more complex dynamic fire extension and a classic fire simulator based on a simple fire size distribution showed little difference in terms of mean fire rotation and potential severity, but cumulative burn patterns created by the dynamic fire extension were more heterogeneous due to feedback between fuel types and fire behavior. Simulations in the Sierra Nevada indicated that burn patterns were responsive to topographic features, fuel types, and an extreme weather scenario, although the magnitude of responses depended on elevation. In both study areas, simulated fire size and resulting fire rotation intervals were moderately sensitive to parameters controlling the curvilinear response between fire spread and weather, as well as to the assumptions underlying the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. Potential fire severity was more variable within the Sierra Nevada landscape and also was more sensitive to the correlation between weather conditions and fire duration. The fire modeling approach described here should be applicable to questions related to climate change and disturbance interactions, particularly within locations characterized by steep topography, where temporally or spatially dynamic vegetation significantly influences spread rates, where fire severity is variable, and where multiple disturbance types of varying severities are common.     

Scale-dependent interaction of fire and grazing on community heterogeneity in tallgrass prairie

Natural disturbances affect spatial and temporal heterogeneity in plant communities, but effects vary depending on type of disturbance and scale of analysis. In this study, we examined the effects of fire frequency (1-, 4-, and 20-yr intervals) and grazing by bison on spatial and temporal heterogeneity in species composition in tallgrass prairie plant communities. Compositional heterogeneity was estimated at 10-, 50-, and 200-m2 scales. For each measurement scale, we used the average Euclidean Distance (ED) between samples within a year (2000) to measure spatial heterogeneity and between all time steps (1993-2000) for each sample to measure temporal heterogeneity. The main effects of fire and grazing were scale independent. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity were lowest on annually burned sites and highest on infrequently burned (20-yr) sites at all scales. Grazing reduced spatial heterogeneity and increased temporal heterogeneity at all scales. The rate of community change over time decreased as fire frequency increased at all scales, whereas grazing had no effect on rate of community change over time at any spatial scale. The interactive effects of fire and grazing on spatial and temporal heterogeneity differed with scale. At the 10-m2 scale, grazing increased spatial heterogeneity in annually burned grassland but decreased heterogeneity in less frequently burned areas. At the 50-m2 scale, grazing decreased spatial heterogeneity on 4-yr burns but had no effect at other fire frequencies. At the 10-m scale, grazing increased temporal heterogeneity only on 1- and 20-yr burn sites. Our results show that the individual effects of fire and grazing on spatial and temporal heterogeneity in mesic prairie are scale independent, but the interactive effects of these disturbances on community heterogeneity change with scale of measurement. These patterns reflect the homogenizing impact of fire at all spatial scales, and the different frequency, intensity, and scale of patch grazing by bison in frequently burned vs. infrequently burned areas.     

Forest dynamics in Oregon landscapes: evaluation and application of an individual-based model.

The FORCLIM model of forest dynamics was tested against field survey data for its ability to simulate basal area and composition of old forests across broad climatic gradients in western Oregon, USA. The model was also tested for its ability to capture successional trends in ecoregions of the west Cascade Range. It was then applied to simulate present and future (1990-2050) forest landscape dynamics of a watershed in the west Cascades. Various regimes of climate change and harvesting in the watershed were considered in the landscape application. The model was able to capture much of the variation in forest basal area and composition in western Oregon even though temperature and precipitation were the only inputs that were varied among simulated sites. The measured decline in total basal area from tall coastal forests eastward to interior steppe was matched by simulations. Changes in simulated forest dominants also approximated those in the actual data. Simulated abundances of a few minor species did not match actual abundances, however. Subsequent projections of climate change and harvest effects in a west Cascades landscape indicated no change in forest dominance as of 2050. Yet, climate-driven shifts in the distributions of some species were projected. The simulation of both stand-replacing and partial-stand disturbances across western Oregon improved agreement between simulated and actual data. Simulations with fire as an agent of partial disturbance suggested that frequent fires of low severity can alter forest composition and structure as much or more than severe fires at historic frequencies.     

A structural equation model analysis of postfire plant diversity in California shrublands.

This study investigates patterns of plant diversity following wildfires in fire-prone shrublands of California, seeks to understand those patterns in terms of both local and landscape factors, and considers the implications for fire management. Ninety study sites were established following extensive wildfires in 1993, and 1000-m(2) plots were used to sample a variety of parameters. Data on community responses were collected for five years following fire. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to relate plant species richness to plant abundance, fire severity, abiotic conditions, within-plot heterogeneity, stand age, and position in the landscape. Temporal dynamics of average richness response was also modeled. Richness was highest in the first year following fire, indicating postfire enhancement of diversity. A general decline in richness over time was detected, with year-to-year variation attributable to annual variations in precipitation. Peak richness in the landscape was found where (1) plant abundance was moderately high, (2) within-plot heterogeneity was high, (3) soils were moderately low in nitrogen, high in sand content, and with high rock cover, (4) fire severity was low, and (5) stands were young prior to fire. Many of these characteristics were correlated with position in the landscape and associated conditions. We infer from the SEM results that postfire richness in this system is strongly influenced by local conditions and that these conditions are, in turn, predictably related to landscape-level conditions. For example, we observed that older stands of shrubs were characterized by more severe fires, which were associated with a low recovery of plant cover and low richness. These results may have implications for the use of prescribed fire in this system if these findings extrapolate to prescribed burns as we would expect.     

Interacting effects of habitat destruction and changing disturbance rates on biodiversity: Who is going to survive?

Changes in disturbance rates due to climate change may increase or decrease diversity, whereas permanent loss of habitat is generally believed to decrease diversity. It is, however, very likely that the effects of disturbances and habitat destruction interact. Understanding such combined effects is essential to predict the response of communities to global changes and in particular which functional types of species are most endangered. Using an individual-based spatially explicit community model, we investigate (1) whether diversity-disturbance curves alter when spatially uncorrelated or autocorrelated habitat destruction is added, and (2) which functional types of species are able to survive under these altered conditions. Model communities consisted of four functional types of species trading off between colonisation ability and competition strength. We found that habitat destruction may alter both height and shape of diversity-disturbance curves: maximum diversity at intermediate disturbance rates may shift to other disturbance rates or even split into two peaks giving rise to bimodal diversity-disturbance relationships with different sub-communities persisting at low and high disturbance rates. Diversity responded differentially depending on how the colonisation-competition trade-off was represented. Our results suggest that, for trade-offs in seed production rate, generally the best coloniser will better withstand the interacting effects of habitat destruction and changing disturbance rates; however, for trade-offs in mean dispersal distances, functional types characterized by intermediate abilities will perform best. We conclude that predictions of the impacts of changing disturbance rates on biodiversity depend on community structure and cannot be made without knowledge of concurrent permanent habitat destruction.     

Trajectories of change in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in relation to multiple wildfires

Repeated perturbations, both biotic and abiotic, can lead to fundamental changes in the nature of ecosystems, including changes in state. Sagebrush steppe communities provide important habitat for wildlife and grazing for livestock. Fire is an integral part of these systems, but there is concern that increased ignition frequencies and invasive species are fundamentally altering them. Despite these issues, the majority of studies of fire effects in systems dominated by Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis have focused on the effects of single burns. The Arid Lands Ecology Reserve (ALE), in south-central Washington (U.S.A.), was one of the largest contiguous areas of sagebrush steppe habitat in the state until large wildfires burned the majority of it in 2000 and 2007. We analyzed data from permanent vegetation transects established in 1996 and resampled in 2002 and 2009. Our objective was to describe how the fires, and subsequent postfire restoration efforts, affected communities' successional pathways. Plant communities differed in response to repeated fire and restoration; these differences could largely be ascribed to the functional traits of the dominant species. Low-elevation communities, previously dominated by obligate seeders, moved furthest from their initial composition and were dominated by weedy, early-successional species in 2009. Higher-elevation sites with resprouting shrubs, native bunchgrasses, and few invasive species were generally more resilient to the effects of repeated disturbances. Shrub cover has been almost entirely removed from ALE, although there was some recovery where communities were dominated by resprouters. Bromus tectorum dominance was reduced by herbicide application in areas where it was previously abundant, but it increased significantly in untreated areas. Several resprouting species, notably Phlox longifolia and Poa secunda, expanded remarkably following competitive release from shrub canopies and/or abundant B. tectorum. Our results suggest that community dynamics can be understood through a state and transition model with two axes (shrub/grass and native/invasive abundance), although such models also need to account for differences in plant functional traits and disturbance regimes. We use our results to develop a conceptual model that will be validated with further research.     

Consistency of effects of tropical‐forest disturbance on species composition and richness relative to use of indicator taxa

Lawton et al. (1998) found, in a highly cited study, that the species richness of 8 taxa each responds differently to anthropogenic disturbance in Cameroon forests. Recent developments in conservation science suggest that net number of species is an insensitive measure of change and that understanding which species are affected by disturbance is more important. It is also recognized that all disturbance types are not equal in their effect on species and that grouping species according to function rather than taxonomy is more informative of responses of biodiversity to change. In a reanalysis of most of the original Cameroon data set (canopy and ground ants, termites, canopy beetles, nematodes, and butterflies), we focused on changes in species and functional composition rather than richness and used a more inclusive measure of forest disturbance based on 4 component drivers of change: years since disturbance, tree cover, soil compaction, and degree of tree removal. Effects of disturbance on compositional change were largely concordant between taxa. Contrary to Lawton et al.’s findings, species richness for most groups did not decline with disturbance level, providing support for the view that trends in species richness at local scales do not reflect the resilience of ecosystems to disturbance. Disturbance affected species composition more strongly than species richness for butterflies, canopy beetles, and litter ants. For these groups, disturbance caused species replacements rather than just species loss. Only termites showed effects of disturbance on species richness but not composition, indicating species loss without replacement. Although disturbance generally caused changes in composition, the strength of this relationship depended on the disturbance driver. Butterflies, litter ants, and nematodes were correlated with amount of tree cover, canopy beetles were most strongly correlated with time since disturbance, and termites were most strongly correlated with degree of soil disturbance. There were moderately divergent responses to disturbance between functional feeding groups. Disturbance was most strongly correlated with compositional differences of herbivores within beetles and nematodes and humus feeders within termites. Our results suggest that consideration of the impact of different forms of disturbance on species and functional composition, rather than on net numbers of species, is important when assessing the impacts of disturbance on biodiversity.     

Compositional stability and diversity of vascular plant communities following logging disturbance in Appalachian forests

Human-caused changes in disturbance regimes and introductions of nonnative species have the potential to result in widespread, directional changes in forest community structure. The degree that plant community composition persists or changes following disturbances depends on the balance between local extirpation and colonization by new species, including nonnatives. In this study, we examined species losses and gains, and entry of native vs. exotic species to determine how oak forests in the Appalachian Mountains might shift in species composition following a gradient of pulse disturbances (timber harvesting). We asked (1) how compositional stability of the plant community (resistance and resilience) was influenced by disturbance intensity, (2) whether community responses were driven by extirpation or colonization of species, and (3) how disturbance intensity influenced total and functional group diversity, including the nonnative proportion of the flora through time. We collected data at three spatial scales and three times, including just before, one year post-disturbance, and 10 years post-disturbance. Resistance was estimated using community distance measures between pre- and one year post-disturbance, and resilience using community distance between pre- and 10-year post-disturbance conditions. The number of colonizing and extirpated species between sampling times was analyzed for all species combined and for six functional groups. Resistance and resilience decreased with increasing timber-harvesting disturbance; compositional stability was lower in the most disturbed plots, which was driven by colonization, but not extirpation, of species. Colonization of species also led to increases in diversity after disturbance that was typically maintained after 10 years following disturbance. Most of the community-level responses were driven by post-disturbance colonization of native forbs and graminoids. The nonnative proportion of plant species tended to increase following disturbance, especially at large spatial scales in the most disturbed treatments, but tended to decrease through time following disturbance due to canopy development. The results of this study are consistent with the theory that resources released by disturbance have strong influences on species colonization and community composition. The effects of management activities tested in this study, which span a gradient of timber-harvesting disturbance, shift species composition largely via an increase in species colonization and diversity.     

Valuation of climate-change effects on Mediterranean shrublands.

In general, the socioeconomic analysis of natural systems does not enter into the realms of natural science. This paper, however, estimates the human-welfare effects of possible physicochemical and biological impacts of climate change on Mediterranean shrublands over the coming 50 years. The contingent choice method was applied to elicit the trade-offs in perceived values for three climate-sensitive attributes of shrubland (plant cover, fire risk, and soil erosion) and for the costs of programs designed to mitigate changes. Soil erosion was found to be the attribute of shrubland that most concerned the population, followed by fire risk and then plant cover. An increase of 1% in the shrubland area affected by erosion was estimated to cost each person on average 2.9 euros per year in terms of lost welfare, a figure that is equivalent in terms of perceptions of social welfare to an increase of 0.24% in the shrub area burned annually and a decrease of 3.19% in the area of plant cover. These trade-off values may help ecologists, policy makers, and land managers to take social preferences into account.     

Disturbance, Diversity, and Invasion: Implications for Conservation

Disturbance is an important component of many ecosystems, and variations in disturbance regime can affect ecosystem and community structure and functioning. The "intermediate disturbance hypothesis" suggests that species diversity should be highest at moderate levels of disturbance. However, disturbance is also known to increase the invasibility of communities. Disturbance therefore poses an important problem for conservation management, Here, we review the effects of disturbances such as fire grazing, soil disturbance and nutrient addition on plant species diversity and invasion with particular emphasis on grassland vegetation. Individual components of the disturbance regime can have marked effects on species diversity, but it is often modifications of the existing regime that have the largest influence. Similarly, disturbance can enhance invasion of natural communities, but frequently it is the interaction between different disturbances that has the largest effect. The natural disturbance regime is now unlikely to persist within conservation areas since fragmentation and human intervention have usually modified physical and biotic conditions. Active management decisions must now be made on what disturbance regime is required and this requires decisions on what species are to be encouraged or discouraged.     

Simulating the potential for ecological restoration of dryland forests in Mexico under different disturbance regimes

Examining the potential for ecological restoration is important in areas where anthropogenic disturbance has degraded forest landscapes. However, the conditions under which restoration of degraded tropical dry forests (TDF) might be achieved in practice have not been determined in detail. In this study, we used LANDIS-II, a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, to assess the potential for passive restoration of TDF through natural regeneration. The model was applied to two Mexican landscapes under six different disturbance regimes, focusing on the impact of fire and cattle grazing on forest cover, structure and composition. Model results identified two main findings. First, tropical dry forests are more resilient to anthropogenic disturbance than expected. Results suggested that under both a scenario of small, infrequent fires and a scenario of large, frequent fires, forest area can increase relatively rapidly. However, forest structure and composition differed markedly between these scenarios. After 400 years, the landscape becomes increasingly occupied by relatively shade-tolerant species under small, infrequent fires, but only species with both relatively high shade tolerance and high fire tolerance can thrive under conditions with large, frequent fires. Second, we demonstrated that different forms of disturbance can interact in unexpected ways. Our projections revealed that when grazing acts in combination with fire, forest cover, structure and composition vary dramatically depending on the frequency and extent of the fires. Results indicated that grazing and fire have a synergistic effect causing a reduction in forest cover greater than the sum of their individual effects. This suggests that passive landscape-scale restoration of TDF is achievable in both Mexican study areas only if grazing is reduced, and fires are carefully managed to reduce their frequency and intensity.     

Effects of physical disturbance on nematode communities in sand and mud: a microcosm experiment

A microcosm experiment was carried out to evaluate the effects of continuous and spasmodic physical disturbance of differing frequency on the structure of nematode communities of intertidal sand and mud. There was a marked, characteristic change in abundance and diversity for both sediment types. In the sand microcosms, the majority of univariate measures of community structure, including species diversity, were lowest in the sediments subjected to a high frequency of disturbance. For the mud microcosms, most univariate measures reached their highest values in the treatments with an intermediate frequency of disturbance and were lower in treatments subjected to both higher and lower frequencies. Multivariate ordinations for both nematode assemblages showed a clear separation of undisturbed controls and disturbed treatments, but only for the muddy sediment was there a graded change in community composition with increasing frequency of disturbance. These results confirmed our a priori expectation that nematode assemblages from mobile sandy sediments would be more resilient to physical disturbance than those from sheltered muds, and these observations are considered in the context of Connell's intermediate disturbance hypothesis. Received: 7 May 1997 / Accepted: 10 October 1997     

Integrating functional connectivity and fire management for better conservation outcomes

Globally, the mean abundance of terrestrial animals has fallen by 50% since 1970, and populations face ongoing threats associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, climate change, and disturbance. Climate change can influence the quality of remaining habitat directly and indirectly by precipitating increases in the extent, frequency, and severity of natural disturbances, such as fire. Species face the combined threats of habitat clearance, changing climates, and altered disturbance regimes, each of which may interact and have cascading impacts on animal populations. Typically, conservation agencies are limited in their capacity to mitigate rates of habitat clearance, habitat fragmentation, or climate change, yet fire management is increasingly used worldwide to reduce wildfire risk and achieve conservation outcomes. A popular approach to ecological fire management involves the creation of fire mosaics to promote animal diversity. However, this strategy has 2 fundamental limitations: the effect of fire on animal movement within or among habitat patches is not considered and the implications of the current fire regime for long-term population persistence are overlooked. Spatial and temporal patterns in fire history can influence animal movement, which is essential to the survival of individual animals, maintenance of genetic diversity, and persistence of populations, species, and ecosystems. We argue that there is rich potential for fire managers to manipulate animal movement patterns; enhance functional connectivity, gene flow, and genetic diversity; and increase the capacity of populations to persist under shifting environmental conditions. Recent methodological advances, such as spatiotemporal connectivity modeling, spatially explicit individual-based simulation, and fire-regime modeling can be integrated to achieve better outcomes for biodiversity in human-modified, fire-prone landscapes. Article impact statement: Land managers may conserve populations by using fire to sustain or enhance functional connectivity.