长江经济带生态—经济—社会系统协调发展时空分异及驱动机制

推动生态—经济—社会(EES)系统协调发展是长江经济带发展战略的核心需求,通过构建EES系统协调评价指标体系,运用协调发展、ESDA和面板数据模型,测度分析了2000～2016年长江经济带地级以上行政单元EES系统协调发展的时空分异特征及驱动机制。结果表明:(1)EES系统协调发展呈上升趋势且区域差异逐渐缩小,但整体发展水平较低,中度失调型占据发展类型主体,空间上形成"东北高、西南低"的发展格局,高协调区位于长三角及中西部省会等核心城市;(2)EES系统协调发展呈"等级化"特征,协调度由高到低呈"金字塔"型分布,呈"集群化"特征,城市群内城市协调度整体较高;协调度区域差异特征显著,下游优于中上游,沿江城市优于非沿江城市;(3)EES系统协调发展呈现较强的正向空间自相关,热点区域H-H型集中,冷点区域L-L型较多,局域关联与冷热点空间格局总体表现出沿海优于内陆、下游优于中上游的分异特征;(4)EES系统协调发展时空格局是EES子系统发展、自然区位、战略与政策、空间邻近效应等因素综合驱动形成的结果。     

喀斯特生态脆弱区农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展研究——以贵州省为例

探究喀斯特地区农业生态经济系统的耦合协调关系与演变趋势,对科学评价该地区生态治理效益与实现农业生态经济协调发展具有重要意义。以典型喀斯特生态脆弱区贵州省为例,基于农业生态环境与农业经济发展数据,构建农业生态系统与农业经济系统的评价指标体系,采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型与耦合度模型定量分析了二者的综合评价指数、耦合协调状态与耦合度演变趋势。结果表明：2000～2019年,贵州省农业生态系统综合评价指数呈现先降后升的变化趋势,农业经济系统综合评价指数则保持稳步上升态势,二者之间由“经济滞后型”逐步演变为“生态滞后型”。农业生态经济系统耦合协调度指数整体呈上升趋势,从0.268 0增长至0.660 6,耦合协调状态由中度失调水平演变为初级协调水平。耦合度呈现由大到小的变化趋势,系统经历了从耗损发展向协调发展的转变,说明贵州省农业生态经济系统显现出趋向协调的发展态势。研究表明,贵州省应继续践行生态优先、绿色发展理念,优化生态环境与经济发展的关系,实现农业生态经济系统的高水平协调发展。     

京津冀生态文明与城市化协调发展的时序与空间演变

构建反映生态文明与城市化发展内涵的两系统评价指标体系,以均方差决策法、耦合协调度模型、探索性空间数据分析(ESDA),借助Arc GIS软件从时间和空间两个维度定量分析京津冀13市2007—2016年生态文明与城市化的耦合协调关系及变化趋势。结果表明:①生态文明与城市化系统耦合协调度逐年提升,从2007年13市均处于拮抗发展阶段,到2016年实现较低水平协调,多数城市生态文明建设滞后于城市化进程。②生态文明与城市化耦合协调发展水平存在显著的全局正向空间自相关性,局部空间自相关性存在显著的空间集聚特征,处于高-高集聚区与低-低集聚区的城市最多,北京、廊坊和保定三地的局部空间自相关性最为显著,此三地对周围临近城市的辐射能力更强。基于分析结论,提出实现京津冀13市生态文明与城市化高质量耦合协调发展的策略:①将生态文明建设融入城市化进程,强力推进京津冀"弱势区域"生态文明建设与城市化"同频共振",推动京津两地优势资源向河北溢出和辐射。②强化三地的区域协作,促进共同发展,充分利用高水平集聚区的示范效应,带动和提升低水平集聚区协调发展,加强三地环境治理的联防联控,构建共建共治发展平台。③根据耦合协调度"中间高、南北低"的空间分布差异,三地政府还需根据自身特色,因地制宜研判和明确发展策略。     

长江经济带市域生态文明建设现状及发展潜力初探

生态文明建设是长江经济带下一阶段的工作重点之一。从生态文明和发展潜力的内涵出发,构建了耦合协调度模型和发展潜力模型,并对长江经济带生态文明建设情况进行分析。研究发现:(1)长江经济带东中西部生态文明特征差异明显,东部为经济、社会系统优势区,中部为相对协调区,西部为自然系统相对优势区;(2)当前长江经济带生态文明格局主要受经济因素的影响;(3)协调发展地区整体上表现出最佳的生态文明发展潜力,协调发展应成为长江经济带生态文明建设的重要途径。     

基于耦合协调度模型的河西走廊生态环境质量时空格局演化

以“丝绸之路”经济带上的河西走廊地区为研究对象,采用耦合分析法,构建环境承载力与生态弹性限度的耦合协调模型,在分析2001—2016年河西走廊生态环境承载力和生态弹性限度的基础上,探析河西走廊生态环境承载力与弹性限度的耦合协调度,评价生态环境承载力和生态弹性限度耦合协调阶段及区域生态环境质量水平,从区域和城市两个空间尺度分析生态环境耦合协调类型,为探索河西走廊生态环境可持续发展道路提供科学依据。结果表明:①2001—2016年,河西走廊生态环境承载力和生态弹性限度均呈现东南高、西北低的空间格局和缓慢波动上升趋势。②河西走廊生态环境耦合协调度呈现“东南高西北低,优劣破碎穿插”的空间格局特征,耦合协调度在0~0.5之间,生态系统处于低水平和拮抗耦合阶段,生态环境质量处于濒临失调阶段。③河西走廊生态环境承载力与生态弹性限度耦合协调度存在明显区域差异。河西走廊生态环境耦合协调度共分9个等级3个层次3个耦合协调阶段:高水平-磨合阶段区(良好协调、中度协调和初级协调区);中等水平-拮抗耦合阶段区(勉强协调、濒临失调和轻度失调区)和低水平区-低水平耦合阶段区(极度失调、严重失调和中度失调区)。④根据2001—2016年生态环境耦合协调状况将河西走廊五市分为4种耦合协调类型:高耦合协调增长型(张掖市、金昌市)、高耦合协调减少型(武威市)、中耦合协调增长型(嘉峪关市)和低耦合协调增长型(酒泉市)。各地区应因地制宜地制定发展战略,提高生态环境质量,推进生态环境持续协调发展。     

长三角城市群生态文明建设与城市化耦合协调发展研究

以长三角城市群26个城市为研究对象,通过构建生态文明建设与城市化的评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法、耦合协调模型,分析了2008～2015年26市生态文明建设与城市化耦合协调度及演变过程。结果表明:(1)长三角城市群生态文明建设与城市化水平均呈现上升趋势,且上海、杭州、南京等城市化水平高的城市生态文明建设水平也相对较高;(2)耦合协调发展水平整体较低但呈现波动上升趋势,2015年耦合协调度整体上处于轻度失调状态;(3)耦合协调度空间差异明显,协调度高值地区由2008年的"三点式"(杭州、南京和上海)分布转变为2015年的"Z字型"(南京—上海—杭州—舟山)分布;26市可划分为高高型、高低型、低高型、低低型4种类型,应分别采取不同的对策措施。     

长江经济带科技创新与生态效率的协同演化及影响因素

长江经济带发展战略的深入实施离不开科技创新与绿色发展的协调发展和共同进步。基于城市群视域,采用熵权法、超效率SBM模型、耦合协调度模型以及Tobit模型等方法,从多维度视角探讨2010～2019年长江经济带三大城市群85个城市科技创新与生态效率的耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征,并对二者耦合协调度的主要影响因素进行分析。结果表明：(1)长江经济带整体科技创新水平呈平稳上升趋势,生态效率水平呈降-升-降-升的“W”型变动趋势。科技创新与生态效率耦合协调度呈先升后降的倒“U”型波动上升趋势,且三大城市群空间差异性明显,呈现长三角城市群>长江中游城市群>成渝城市群的空间分布格局;(2)整体耦合协调发展水平存在显著的空间自相关特征,且多数城市表现为低低集聚,其中长三角城市群呈显著的“东高西低”型空间集聚特征,长江中游城市群与成渝城市群空间集聚特征不显著;(3)经济发展水平、劳动力集聚、对外开放程度以及产业结构对整体耦合协调水平有显著正向影响。基于以上结论,提出加大长江经济带生态环境保护力度、重视区域发展异质性、引进培育创新人才以及积极开展对外开放交流等政策建议。     

耦合风险概率与生态损失的襄十随神区域生态风险评价研究

开展区域生态风险评价,是平衡生态环境和社会经济发展之间矛盾的必要措施。以“襄十随神”区域为研究对象,通过构建“风险=概率×损失度”评价模型对近20年来的生态风险时空演变特征进行了系统诊断。结果表明：(1)充分考虑研究区外部多源胁迫与内部系统损失,构建的14个因子的评价指标体系能够有效表征生态风险来源和生态系统损失;(2)研究区20年来生态风险概率增长8.65%,以Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级为主,生态风险概率较低但呈上升趋势;(3)研究区以低级生态系统损失区为主,20年来生态系统损失增长6.66%,尤其是中部及东部地区Ⅳ、Ⅴ级生态系统损失占比持续上升,分布面积逐渐增大;(4)耦合风险概率与生态损失的综合生态风险结果显示,研究区以低生态风险为主,20年来综合生态风险下降了1.90%,等级变化上呈现“以不变区为主,核心城区外围升高、边缘山区降低”的空间格局,等级变化面积达10 006.36 km²,风险等级升高区不断扩张。研究结果对完善综合生态风险评价体系、防控区域生态风险等具有理论和实践价值。     

巢湖流域土地景观格局变化及生态风险驱动力研究

健康的流域生态系统是区域经济社会可持续发展的重要基础。探讨流域土地景观格局变化及生态风险驱动机制有助于生态系统状况诊断与风险来源认识,为有效制定生态风险管控措施提供决策依据。应用空间信息技术平台及计量分析方法,探讨了基于县域行政单元的快速城市化阶段巢湖流域土地景观格局变化及生态风险驱动力。研究表明:(1)2000~2013年,巢湖流域土地景观类型变化表现出农地、林地、水体景观面积下降,建设用地景观面积显著增加的趋势;流域景观水平上多样性和均匀度呈下降、优势度呈上升趋势,景观空间异质性下降;(2)近15 a来,巢湖流域9个行政单元内生态风险均呈上升趋势,生态风险整体恶化,需加强对流域生态风险上升的管控;(3)生态风险驱动力分析表明,快速城市化阶段巢湖流域生态风险的主要驱动因子为第二产业值、城市化率、人口密度和固定资产投资,而人均GDP的增加在一定程度上会降低生态风险水平。     

基于耗散结构理论的城市生态水平评价研究——以武汉市为例

城市是一个经济-社会-自然复合系统,城市生态环境是城市经济社会持续发展的支持系统。基于耗散结构理论和信息熵原理,通过计算生态经济熵、生态功能熵和城市生态系统总熵变,分析城市生态系统的演化发展规律;利用综合发展度和协调发展度两个指数,建立城市生态水平评价的定量模型。以武汉市1988~2004年城市生态系统发展为例,评价结果表明：（1）武汉城市生态系统的生态经济熵、生态功能熵和城市生态系统总熵变均呈现出下降趋势,城市健康、有序水平不断提高;（2）武汉城市生态系统在经历了1988~1991年停滞发展期后,从1992年开始,生态综合发展水平逐年提升,协调发展水平在不断增加,近10年来都保持在基本协调发展水平。     

Characteristics of parasitic infection in the least cisco, Coregonus sardinella valenciennes, 1848, in the Ural tributaries of the lower Ob

Data on the parasite fauna of the least cisco, Coregonus sardinella Valenciennes, 1848 in Ural tributaries of the Ob downstream of the city of Salekhard have been obtained for the first time. The formation patterns of the parasite fauna in this species and the rate (prevalence and intensity) of infection by Ichthyocotylurus erraticus (Odening, 1969), a parasite specific to coregonids, have been revealed. Infection of the least cisco with six parasite species (out of the 12 species found) occurs as the fish feed on zooplankton and benthic organisms. The dominant parasites are trematode larvae of the genera Ichthyocotylurus and, in some years, Diplostomum; this composition of dominants is evidence that the least cisco fattens up mainly in shallow areas. All sexually mature fish of this species were found to be infected by I. erraticus, but the average intensity of infection was rather low: the abundance index of the parasite did not exceed 40 ind. per fish. Analysis of the distribution of I. erraticus metacercariae in the least cisco shows that the relationship in the host-parasite system is stable and the parasite has no pathogenic effect on individuals of older age classes.     

Evaluation of the concentration of HCH, DDT, HCB, PCB and PAH in the sediments along the lower stretch of Hugli estuary, West Bengal, northeast India

Detailed analyses of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers (HCHs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloro ethane (DDT) and its metabolites (DDTs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and congeners of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in surface sediments from the coastal estuarine environment of West Bengal, northeast India allowed the evaluation of the contamination status, distribution and possible pollution sources. HCH, DDT, HCB, PCB and PAH were identified compounds in all the samples, whereas the concentrations of chlorinated pesticides (trans-eptachlorepoxide, dieldrin, endrin, metaoxychlor and mirex) were below the detection limits and were not of great concern. The pesticides did demonstrate markedly different distributions reflecting different agricultural and domestic usage in the region. The range of concentrations of HCH, HCB, DDT and PCBs in the sediments were 0.11-0.40, <0.05-0.98, 0.18-1.93 and 0.18-2.33 ng/g dry wt, respectively. Overall elevated levels of HCB, DDT and PCB were recorded at Babughat, a very closely located site of the metropolitan megacity Calcutta. Fluoranthene (flu) and pyrene (py), the dominant 4-ring PAHs, also showed an abrupt elevated concentrations at Babughat with values of 214 and 144 ng/g dry wt, respectively. Among the isomers and metabolites of HCH, DDT and PCB, alpha-HCH, pp'-DDT and PCB (101), PCB (118), PCB(153) and PCB (138) were found to be dominant. High ratios of metabolites of DDT to SigmaDDTs reveal recent use of DDT in this coastal environment. Fluoranthene, pyrene, 1,2-benzo(a)anthracene and chrysene formed the dominant congeners out of 19 identified PAHs. The sources of contamination are closely related to human activities such as domestic and industrial discharge, automobile exhausts, street runoff, slum sewage, agricultural chemicals and soil erosion due to deforestation as well as atmospheric transport. This study is compared to other coastal and estuarine environments in India and abroad. The baseline data can be used for regular ecological monitoring, considering the industrial and agricultural growth around this important estuarine ecosystem.     

Composition, sources, and potential toxicological significance of PAHs in the surface sediments of the Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China

Twenty-five surface sediment samples were collected from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China, in 2003. The concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), identified as priority pollutants by the USEPA, were determined by gas chromatography equipped with a mass spectrometry detector (GC-MS). Total concentrations of the PAHs ranged from 1207 to 4754 ng/g dry weight. Sediment samples with the highest PAH concentrations were from the northern site of the bay, which is in proximity to the incoming PAH source; the PAH levels in the southern part were relatively low. The observed PAH levels were higher than those in river sediments in China but were lower than those found in sediments of urban areas and harbors. According to the observed molecular indices, PAHs originated largely from the high-temperature pyrolytic process, whereas the petrogenic process was more commonly responsible for PAH contamination in harbors. A good correlation existed between the benzo[a]pyrene level and the total PAH concentration (r=0.97), making benzo[a]pyrene a potential molecular marker for PAH pollution. According to the numerical effect-based sediment quality guideline (SQGs) of the United States, the levels of PAHs at most studied sites in Meiliang Bay, except some sites in the northern part of the bay, should not exert adverse biological effects. In the northern part of the bay, the PAH levels at sites 21 and 22 exceed the effects range low (ERL) and could thus cause acute biological impairments, in comparison with the sediment quality guidelines. The total PAH levels were expressed as the B[a]P toxicity equivalents (TEQs(carc)) and compared to the contaminated sediments from Guba Pechenga, Barents Sea, Russia.     

Radioactivity in fungi in Slovenia,Yugoslavia, following the Chernobyl accident

Caesium (¹³⁷Cs and ¹³⁴Cs) concentrations in higher fungi (Basidiomycetes) from Slovenia, north-west Yugoslavia, are reported following the Chernobyl accident. Special attention was paid to the Cortinariaceae, already known as Cs accumulators. The highest levels were found in Cortinarius armillatus, C. traganus (both inedible species) and Rozites caperata. The median concentration of ^137,134Cs in R. caperata from over 40 sampling sites was about 22 kBq/kg dry weight. High levels were also found in Xerocomus badius and Laccaria amethystina.From the ¹³⁷Cs/¹³⁴Cs ratios, which reflect the depth of the mycelium and the excess ¹³⁷Cs from historic pre-Chernobyl fallout, it may be surmised that radiocaesium levels in certain species will probably increase further next year and subsequently as Cs migrates down the soil profile.In addition, ^110mAg was found at concentrations up to 500 Bq/kg dry weight in certain species known to be Ag accumulators, particularly Agaricaceae and Lycoperdaceae.     

Thoron levels in the dwellings of Hyderabad city, Andhra Pradesh, India

Thoron and its progeny concentration levels were measured in the urban Hyderabad area using solid state nuclear track detector (SSNTD) based dosimeters. Measurements were carried out on quarterly cycles making four measurements at each location in a calendar year. More than 100 dwellings of different construction types were chosen for the study across Hyderabad city. The thoron concentration levels were found to vary between 8 and 330 Bq m(-3). The geometric mean value of thoron concentration was found to be 37.3 Bq m(-3) (GSD = 2.3) with an average of 55 +/- 57 Bq m(-3). Results were analysed for different category of houses with respect to their construction type. It was found that the dwellings with mud flooring had higher thoron levels.     

A study of radium bioaccumulation in freshwater mussels, Velesunio angasi, in the Magela Creek catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

Freshwater mussels, Velesunio angasi, along Magela Creek in Australia’s Northern Territory were examined to study radionuclide activities in mussel flesh and to investigate whether the Ranger Uranium mine is contributing to the radium loads in mussels downstream of the mine. Radium loads in mussels of the same age were highest in Bowerbird Billabong, located 20 km upstream of the mine site. Variations in the ratio of [Ra]:[Ca] in filtered water at the sampling sites accounted for the variations found in mussel radium loads with natural increases in calcium (Ca) in surface waters in a downstream gradient along the Magela Creek catchment gradually reducing radium uptake in mussels. At Mudginberri Billabong, 12 km downstream of the mine, concentration factors for radium have not significantly changed over the past 25 years since the mine commenced operations and this, coupled with a gradual decrease of the ²²⁸Ra/²²⁶Ra activity ratios observed along the catchment, indicates that the ²²⁶Ra accumulated in mussels is of natural rather than mine origin. The ²²⁸Th/²²⁸Ra ratio has been used to model radium uptake and a radium biological half-life in mussels of approximately 13 years has been determined. The long biological half-life and the low Ca concentrations in the water account for the high radium concentration factor of 30,000-60,000 measured in mussels from the Magela Creek catchment.     

Estimation of doses received in a dry-contaminated residential area in the Bryansk region, Russia, since the Chernobyl accident

In nuclear preparedness, an essential requirement is the ability to adequately predict the likely consequences of a major accident situation. In this context it is very important to evaluate which contributions to dose are important, and which are not likely to have significance. As an example of this type of evaluation, a case study has been conducted to estimate the doses received over the first 17 years after the Chernobyl accident in a dry-contaminated residential area in the Bryansk region in Russia. Methodologies for estimation of doses received through nine different pathways, including contamination of streets, roofs, exterior walls, and landscape, are established, and best estimates are given for each of the dose contributions. Generally, contaminated soil areas were estimated to have given the highest dose contribution, but a number of other contributions to dose, e.g., from contaminated roofs and inhalation of contaminants during the passage of the contaminated plume, were of the same order of magnitude.     

Factors controlling metal distributions in the surface sediments of the Erdek Bay, Sea of Marmara, Turkey

A geochemical study of the Erdek Bay sediments in the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, was carried out to investigate the heavy metal distributions and sources. The bay has an average depth of 34 m and a two-layer water column stratification, with a pycnocline at 20 m. The distribution of "total" metal (Fe, Mn, Pb, Cu, Ni, Cr, Zn and Hg) concentrations, together with sequential selective extraction analyses, shows that the relatively high metal concentrations are mainly due to land-based natural inputs from the erosion products of mineralized zones and mafic-ultramafic rocks delivered to the bay by two rivers from the south. However, some Pb, Zn and Cu occur in the Fe-Mn-oxyhydroxide and organic fractions, suggesting, in part, some anthropogenic inputs in addition to the predominantly natural inputs. The vertical distribution of metal/A1 ratios in a gravity core in the bay shows no significant change with depth, except for an early diagenetic enrichment at 0.7-1.6 m below sea floor (mbsf) above a 4750-3500-year-old sapropelic layer. This distribution is a further indication of the insignificant antropogenic metal pollution in the bay.