Sample size requirements for multiple regression interval estimation

Sample size planning is one of the most important issues in the design of a study. Simple and accurate sample size formulas for a desired confidence interval width have been developed for many statistical procedures, but a simple and accurate sample size formula for the squared multiple correlation has been a notable exception. Several rule‐of‐thumb sample size recommendations for a multiple regression analysis have been proposed over the years but none are satisfactory. Other approaches have focused on the construction of elaborate tables of sample size requirements, but these tables are both unwieldy and inadequate. We present a simple, accurate, and general method of approximating the sample size requirement for obtaining a squared multiple correlation confidence interval with desired precision. We also present a simple method for approximating the sample size needed to estimate unstandardized regression coefficients with desired precision. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A methodology for calculating sample size to assess localized corrosion of process components

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the required sample size to assess, with a specified precision, the localized corrosion of process components. The proposed methodology uses the extreme value and bootstrap methods. The results of estimated sample size ensure that the predicted maximum localized corrosion with the extreme value method is within an acceptable margin of error at a specified confidence level. Using the results of the proposed methodology, an equation is introduced to calculate sample size as a function of the acceptable margin of error, the population size, the standard deviation of corrosion data and the required confidence level. The probability of exceedance of critical limit of localized corrosion is also estimated. The methodology is explained through a case study of localized corrosion in process piping.     

Polish adaptation of three self-report measures of job stressors: the Interpersonal Conflict at Work Scale,the Quantitative Workload Inventory and the Organizational Constraints Scale

Aim. The objective of the present study was to test the psychometric properties, reliability and validity of three job stressor measures, namely, the Interpersonal Conflict at Work Scale, the Organizational Constraints Scale and the Quantitative Workload Inventory. Method. The study was conducted on two samples (N?=?382 and 3368) representing a wide range of occupations. The estimation of internal consistency with Cronbach's α and the test–retest method as well as both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were the main statistical methods. Results. The internal consistency of the scales proved satisfactory, ranging from 0.80 to 0.90 for Cronbach's α test and from 0.72 to 0.86 for the test–retest method. The one-dimensional structure of the three measurements was confirmed. The three scales have acceptable fit to the data. The one-factor structures and other psychometric properties of the Polish version of the scales seem to be similar to those found in the US version of the scales. It was also proved that the three job stressors are positively related to all the job strain measures. Conclusions. The Polish versions of the three analysed scales can be used to measure the job stressors in Polish conditions.     

Validation of a questionnaire about the perception of occupational biohazard in Spanish companies

Objectives. The aim of this work was to develop, validate and test a new questionnaire to assess the biological risk in workers with intentional or unintentional exposure to biological agents. Methods. A questionnaire including 34 questions was developed to study the perception of workers against occupational biohazard. Content Validity Index (CVI) and Content Validity Ratio (CVR) were calculated for the analysis of content validity. A pilot study was carried out with 60 workers from 17 companies performing analysis of Cronbach's α to assess the internal consistency or reliability. Results. A total of 518 workers from 51 Spanish companies in which there is exposure to biological agents participated in the study yielding a response rate of 90%. The final questionnaire obtained a Cronbach's α > 0.759 with a stable test–retest result. The questionnaire validation demonstrates that it could be used to evaluate the biological risks and help the prevention of occupational accidents and diseases. Discussion. This study has validated the need to evaluate worker's perception against occupational risks, as well as the application of prevention methods and protective equipment. It is a first step towards developing an occupational biohazards assessment method including all the requirements set by the European Health and Safety Strategy 2013–2020.     

Smeed's law and expected road fatality reduction: An assessment of the Italian case

IntroductionSmeed's law defines the functional relationship existing between the fatality rate and the motorization rate. While focusing on the Italian case and based on the Smeed's law, the study assesses the possibility for Italy of reaching the target of halving the number of road fatalities by 2020, in light of the evolving socio-economic situation.MethodA Smeed's model has been calibrated based on the recorded Italian data. The evolution of the two indicators, fatality and motorization rates, has been estimated using the predictions of the main parameters (population, fleet size and fatalities). Those trends have been compared with the natural decreasing trend derived from the Smeed's law.ResultsNine scenarios have been developed showing the relationship between the fatality rate and the motorization rate. In case of a limited increase (logistic regression) of the vehicle fleet and according to the estimated evolution of the population, the path defined by motorization and fatality rate is very steep, diverging from the estimated confidence interval of the Smeed's model. In these scenarios the motorization rate is almost constant during the decade.ConclusionsIn the actual economic context, a limited development of the vehicle fleet is more plausible. In these conditions the target achievement of halving the number of fatalities in Italy may occur only in case of a structural break (i.e., the introduction of highly effective road safety policies).Practical applicationThe proposed tools can be used both to evaluate retrospectively the effectiveness of road safety improvements and to assess if a relevant effort is needed to reach the established road safety targets.     

Bayesian sample size determination for inspection of general corrosion of process components

A Bayesian approach-based method is proposed for calculating the minimum size of a sample to assess, with a specified precision, the integrity of process components suffering from general corrosion. The proposed method ensures that the error in the posterior estimate of the mean does not exceed a pre-defined acceptable margin of error at a specified confidence level. An analytical formula to estimate the sample size is introduced. The sample size obtained using the proposed method is smaller than a sample size obtained using the classical method with same confidence level. This reduces sampling inspection cost without affecting the precision of the estimate.     

Prediction of the confidence interval for stability analysis of chain pillars in coal mines

The conventional deterministic approach based (DAB) methods are simple and widely used to determine an adequate chain pillar size in coal mines where geological settings, coal characterizations and mining methods have been explored. It is evident that such deterministic methods have some intrinsic limitations in handling uncertainties in material properties, non-regular geometries and different mining operations. In the deterministic stability analysis of a chain pillar, the safety factors as well as all input parameters are deterministic. Although, these parameters generally exhibit uncertainty and should lead to a probabilistic expression for the safety factor. The probabilistic analysis provides a confidence interval to express the reliability of chain pillars stability.In this paper, safety factor is defined as a probabilistic function and the failure probability of designed chain pillar of Tabas coal mine is then evaluated using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and the Advanced Second Moment (ASM) methods. The results of the probabilistic stability analysis show that the confidence interval for designed pillars with both mentioned methods applied are similar and their values vary from 84% to 88%. The results of such analyses can be used as a basis for decision-making about the size of chain pillars and reduce the risk of pillars stability as well as the uncertainties. However, a trade-off between cost is essential for making the final decision.     

主成分分析法和德尔菲结合法的影响驾驶行为指标构建

为了构建影响驾驶行为的指标,统计了影响驾驶行为的41项因素。针对这些因素,制作了调查问卷,并对各个行业的120名驾驶员发放问卷。对收回的有效问卷结果进行统计,并采用主成分分析法和模糊德尔菲与灰色德尔菲法结合两种方法对问卷结果进行分析。主成分分析与德尔菲结合法都能有效地将驾驶员观点定量化,进而得到对驾驶员行为相对影响较大的指标。比较两种方法的分析结果,运用交叉法得到了19个主要影响驾驶行为的指标。     

Reliability-based optimisation of a mine production system using genetic algorithms

In this research, a safety management system is planned for a mine operation. The objective is to develop a mine production design that will achieve the desired reliability and variance of reliability estimation of system while performing all sub-system functions at a minimum cost. The problem was formulated in an underground mine system containing five sub-systems with varying reliability estimates, estimation variances and feasibilities and solved by genetic algorithms (GA).     

Pedestrian road crossing behavior (PEROB): Development and psychometric evaluation

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a theory-based questionnaire to measure road crossing attitudes and potentially risky pedestrian behavior.

Methods: A cross-sectional validation study was carried out on a total sample of 380 young adults aged 18 to 25 years who live in Tehran, Iran. Data were collected from January 27 to May 20, 2015, using a self-administered structured pool of 76 items that was developed from research on the theory of planned behavior. A panel of subject-matter experts evaluated the items for content validity index and content validity ratio, and the questionnaire was pretested. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was performed to test construct validity. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) analyses were done to assess internal consistency and stability of the scale.

Results: From the initial 76 items, 38 items were found to be appropriate for assessing the pedestrian road crossing behavior (PEROB) of young adults in Tehran. A 9-factor solution revealed an exploratory factor analysis that jointly accounted for 63.8% of the variance observed. Additional analyses also indicated acceptable results for the internal consistency with Cronbach's alpha value ranging from 0.67 to 0.88 and ICC values ranging from 0.64 to 0.96.

Conclusions: This psychometric evaluation of a self-administered instrument resulted in a reliable and valid instrument to assess young adult pedestrians' self-reported road crossing attitudes and behaviors in Tehran. Further development of the instrument is needed to assess its applicability to other road users, particularly older pedestrians.     

矿井通风系统模糊可靠性研究

定义模糊可靠度为一个服从正态分布的模糊数，并以模糊数作为通风系统的各风路可靠度，进而提出了矿井通风系统的模糊可靠度计算方法。同时在置信水平上，确定矿井通风系统的普通可靠度置信区间。若＝１，则模糊可靠度计算转化为可靠度计算。     

千秋煤矿2号煤层冲击倾向性判别指标研究

在对现行冲击倾向性指标分析的基础上,综合考虑煤样变形破坏过程中冲击能量效应和时间效应,提出有效冲击能量速度指数这一新的冲击倾向性判定指标。建立了煤样的单轴压缩峰值前塑性变形消耗能量的计算模型,得出了有效冲击能量速度指数的计算方法和判定准则。通过试验、分析和计算,论证了单轴抗压强度和有效冲击能量速度指数作为煤层冲击倾向性判定指标的可行性和可靠性。研究结果表明:以冲击能量指数、弹性能量指数、动态破坏时间、单轴抗压强度和有效冲击能量速度指数五个指标作为千秋煤矿2号煤层冲击倾向性判别指标,可以增强判定结果的可靠性和准确性。     

基于广义极值分布的流化床压力波动风险预警

为预警气泡运动所引起的流化床粉煤气化压力波动风险,提出预测压力波动极值以及压力波动重现水平的方法;首先采用自相关分析法将压力波动母样本数据合理分段,再用区间极值法统计子样本的压力波动极值数据,以广义极值(GEV)分布方法建立GEV分布模型和Gumbel分布模型,并经过模型诊断选择最优模型;然后通过子样本与母样本的参数关...     

Minimum-loss design of x-bar charts for correlated data

When the x-bar chart is used to monitor a production process, three parameters should be determined: the sample size, the sampling interval between successive samples, and the control limits for the chart. In 1956, Duncan presented a cost model to determine the three parameters, which is called the economic design of x-bar charts. In 1995, Alexander et al. combined Duncan’s cost model with the Taguchi’s quality loss function to present a loss model for determining the three parameters. When designing an x-bar chart, one usually assumes that the measurements within a sample are independent; however, this assumption may not be true for some processes. In this paper, we develop the minimum-loss design of x-bar charts for correlated measurements within a sample by incorporating the Taguchi’s quality loss function. An example of orange juice production process is presented to illustrate the solution procedure. From the results of sensitivity analysis, we find that as the measurements in the sample are positively correlated, highly correlated data result in a smaller sample size and a frequent sampling interval; however, as the measurements in the sample are negatively correlated, highly correlated data yield a smaller sample size and a narrower control limits.     

The relationship between patient safety climate and occupational safety climate in healthcare – A multi-level investigation

IntroductionPatient safety climate/culture is attracting increasing research interest, but there is little research on its relation with organizational climates regarding other target domains.The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between patient safety climate and occupational safety climate in healthcare.MethodThe climates were assessed using two questionnaires: Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture and Nordic Occupational Safety Climate Questionnaire. The final sample consisted of 1154 nurses, 886 assistant nurses, and 324 physicians, organized in 150 work units, within hospitals (117 units), primary healthcare (5 units) and elderly care (28 units) in western Sweden, which represented 56% of the original sample contacted.ResultsWithin each type of safety climate, two global dimensions were confirmed in a higher order factor analysis; one with an external focus relative the own unit, and one with an internal focus. Two methods were used to estimate the covariation between the global climate dimensions, in order to minimize the influence of bias from common method variance. First multilevel analysis was used for partitioning variances and covariances in a within unit part (individual level) and a between unit part (unit level). Second, a split sample technique was used to calculate unit level correlations based on aggregated observations from different respondents. Both methods showed associations similar in strength between the patient safety climate and the occupational safety climate domains.ConclusionsThe results indicated that patient safety climate and occupational safety climate are strongly positively related at the unit level, and that the same organizational processes may be important for the development of both types of organizational climate.Practical applicationsSafety improvement interventions should not be separated in different organizational processes, but be planned so that both patient safety and staff safety are considered concomitantly.     

An extension of the fuzzy improved risk graph and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process for determination of chemical complex safety integrity levels

The risk graph (RG) is widely used to evaluate the safety integrity level (SIL) of safety instrument systems (SIS). However, subjective opinion-based conventional RGs cannot provide successful results for the problems of risk parameters, such as shortages or lack of data; hence, the output of a conventional approach lacks sufficient reliability. We introduced the fuzzy improved risk graph (FIRG), an extension of fuzzy set theory, to deal with possible ambiguities during SIL study and increase the reliability of conventional RGs. In the present study, the levels of consequences defined as linguistic terms were converted into qualitative intervals; therefore, by correlating the proposed approach with experts’ opinions and attributing weight factors, a desired SIL value was obtained. The output of this new approach can be compared directly with quantitative risk assessment techniques to improve the safety performance of industrial systems.     

陕北煤炭开采地区河道生态基流的计算与盈亏分析

陕北地区水资源非常短缺,特别是煤炭开采地区。以窟野河流域为例,首先采用基流比例法、Tenent法和最小月平均流量法分别计算了温家川站的生态基流;其次通过对比分析各种计算结果得出基流推荐值,分析了生态基流的盈缺状况,并探讨了造成生态基流缺失的主要因素。结果表明,窟野河温家川站的年生态基流推荐值为3.50 m~3/s,年内丰水期、平水期、枯水期的推荐值分别为6.00 m~3/s、3.50 m~3/s、2.50 m~3/s。1999年之前生态基流还有很大的盈余,但近些年流量明显减少,4、5、6月平均流量都不能满足生态基流,其中煤炭开采是主要因素之一。     

公路桥梁施工总体安全风险评估方法研究

为有效控制公路桥梁施工安全风险,提出一种可量化的公路桥梁施工安全风险评估方法。先构建我国公路桥梁施工总体安全风险评估指标体系,并基于蒙特卡洛抽样技术,运用k-s法对该评估指标体系总体分布进行有效检验。在此基础上,在给定的置信区间下对总体安全风险等级阈值进行界定划分,并通过实例进行验证。研究结果表明:该评估方法具有方便、实用、可靠性强的特点。     

Validation of the positive health behaviours scale: a nationwide survey of nurses in Poland

Purpose. The aim was to adjust the positive health behaviours scale (PHBS) to make it suitable for use by nurses, and to validate the new version of the tool. Methods. A previously formulated PHBS was modified. The scale comprises 29 statements describing certain positive health behaviours in four subscales: nutrition, physical activity, relaxation and behaviours related to mental health, and preventive behaviours. The scale was enriched with items on avoiding risky behaviours and a question regarding respondents’ own assessment of their care for health. Analyses were conducted of reliability, construct validity, criterion validity and dimensionality of subscales. The questionnaire was completed by 1017 nurses. Results. Cronbach's α reached 0.844 for the entire scale and 0.623–0.761 for specific subscales. Empirical data did not confirm theoretical assumptions regarding the existence of a four-element structure of the PHBS. The scale's diagnostic criteria were validated on the basis of positive results of correlation and trend analysis. Only one of the subscales proved homogeneous and could be considered unidimensional. Conclusions. The results confirmed the high internal consistency of the scale and its subscales. The factor structure of the PHBS was equivocal. The PHBS could be used in workplace-based health promotion programmes designed for nurses.     

劈裂拉伸条件下大红山铜矿矿岩变形特性的试验研究

对大红山铜矿的3种岩石的试样进行了劈裂拉伸(巴西法)试验和单轴压缩试验,研究了岩石的变形特性。劈裂试验中在试样中部相互垂直的方向上粘贴了电阻应变计测量试样的变形。结果表明,在劈裂试验条件下,两种岩石均出现垂直于加载轴线方向所获得的拉伸弹模小于平行于加载轴线方向所获得的压缩弹模的现象。与单轴压缩下试样出现破裂、扩容的破坏特征相比,劈裂拉伸下试样的变形特征为接近峰值时变形曲线斜率会逐渐降低,达到峰值应力后则很快出现数值很大的拉伸变形,直至试样破坏。劈裂拉伸循环加卸载试验发现,大多数试样的拉伸卸载变形大于加载变形,致使残余变形的数值为负值,称之为反向残余变形。此现象与连续介质变形行为的预期不符,至今未见类似报道。反向残余变形是否具有普遍性及其影响,应该开展更多研究。