Consistent Ecological Selectivity through Time in Pacific Island Avian Extinctions

Abstract: Understanding the ecological mechanisms that lead to extinction is a central goal of conservation. Can understanding ancient avian extinctions help to predict extinction risk in modern birds? I used classification trees trained on both paleoecological and historical data from islands across the Pacific to determine the ecological traits associated with extinction risk. Intrinsic traits, including endemism, large body size, and certain feeding guilds, were tightly linked with avian extinction over the past 3500 years. Species ecology and phylogeny were better predictors of extinction risk through time than extrinsic or abiotic factors. Although human impacts on birds and their habitats have changed over time, modern endangered birds share many of the same ecological characteristics as victims of previous extinction waves. My use of detailed predictions of extinction risk to identify species potentially in need of conservation attention demonstrates the utility of paleoecological knowledge for modern conservation biology.     

Environmental Synergisms and Extinctions of Tropical Species

Abstract: Environmental synergisms may pose the greatest threat to tropical biodiversity. Using recently updated data sets from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we evaluated the incidence of perceived threats to all known mammal, bird, and amphibian species in tropical forests. Vulnerable, endangered, and extinct species were collectively far more likely to be imperiled by combinations of threats than expected by chance. Among 45 possible pairwise combinations of 10 different threats, 69%, 93%, and 71% were significantly more frequent than expected for threatened mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, even with a stringent Bonferroni‐corrected probability value (p= 0.003). Based on this analysis, we identified five key environmental synergisms in the tropics and speculate on the existence of others. The most important involve interactions between habitat loss or alteration (from agriculture, urban sprawl, infrastructure, or logging) and other anthropogenic disturbances such as hunting, fire, exotic‐species invasions, or pollution. Climatic change and emerging pathogens also can interact with other threats. We assert that environmental synergisms are more likely the norm than the exception for threatened species and ecosystems, can vary markedly in nature among geographic regions and taxa, and may be exceedingly difficult to predict in terms of their ultimate impacts. The perils posed by environmental synergisms highlight the need for a precautionary approach to tropical biodiversity conservation.     

Evolutionary Consequences of Extinctions in Populations of a Hawaiian Honeycreeper

We report on the evolutionary change in bill size of a species of Hawaiian honeycreeper resulting from an apparent dietary shift caused by dramatic declines and extinctions of lobelioids, a historically favored nectar source. Although it now feeds mainly on the flowers of the ohia tree ( Metrosideros polymorpha ), early Hawaiian avifaunal accounts report that the i'iwi ( Vestiaria coccinea ), which has a long decurved bill, fed primarily on the flowers of Hawaiian Lobelioideae, which typically have long decurved corollas. A coevolutionary association of i'iwi bill and flower morphology has often been asserted. We test the hypothesis that the shift in the i'iwi's diet from the long corolla lobelioid flowers to ohia flowers, which lack corollas, resulted in directional selection for shorter bills. We evaluate this hypothesis by comparing the morphological characters of museum specimens from the island of Hawaii collected before 1902 with recent specimens from the Hakalau National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaii. We examine evidence of change in morphological characters using multivariate analysis and a nonparametric cubic spline technique. Results from all analyses are congruent: bill length is shorter in recent specimens.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Fishery Stability, Local Extinctions, and Shifts in Community Structure in Skates

Abstract: Skates are arguably the most vulnerable of exploited marine fishes. Their vulnerability is often assessed by examining fisheries catch trends, but these data are not generally recorded on a species basis except in France. Aggregated skate catch statistics tend to exhibit more stable trends than those of other elasmobranch fisheries. We tested whether such apparent stability in aggregated catch trends could mask population declines of individual species. We examined two time series of species-specific surveys of a relatively stable skate fishery in the northeast Atlantic. These surveys revealed the disappearance of two skate species, long-nose skate (   Dipturus oxyrhinchus ) and white skate (   Rostroraja alba ) and confirmed a previously documented decline of the common skate (   D. batis ). Of the remaining five skate species, the three larger ones have declined, whereas two smaller species have increased in abundance. The increase in abundance and biomass of the smaller species has resulted in the stability of the aggregated catch trends. Because there is significant dietary overlap among species, we suggest the increase in abundance of the smaller species may be due to competitive release as the larger species declined. A consequence of this kind of stability is that declining species cannot be detected without species-specific data, especially in taxa exhibiting competitive interactions. This may explain why previously documented disappearances of two species of skates went unnoticed for so long. The conservation of skates and other elasmobranchs requires species-specific monitoring and special attention to larger species.     

Megafaunal Extinctions: The Conservation Message from 11,000 Years B.P.

Abstract: At the end of the Pleistocene, the Americas, northern Eurasia: and Australia experienced a vast decline in large mammal diversity, while Africa and tropical Asia were hardly affected. The elimination of the megaberbivores (animals weighing >1000 kg, probably by human predation, removed the vegetation impact of these species. The resultant reduction in habitat mosaic diversity and in forage quality probably precipitated the extinctions of lesser large mammalian species. Surviving megaherbivores in the form of elephants and rhinoceroses are currently being exterminated from many African conservation areas. African savanna ecosystems could prove more resistant to species losses than north temperate ecosystems, because geomorphic factors plus low and erratic rainfall enhance spatial heterogeneity and vegetation quality independently of large herbivore impact Nevertheless, the history of the Hluhluwe Game Reserve in South Africa suggests that certain African ecosystems may become susceptible to an inexorable decline in populations of some large herbivores following the extermination of elephants. If elephants and rhinoceroses cannot be conserved active habitat manipulation will be needed to retain a diverse fauna of large mammals in such regions.     

Missing Mammals on Great Basin Mountains: Holocene Extinctions and Inadequate Knowledge

The discontinuous distribution of boreal mammals across Great Basin mountains has provided a significant body of data for the analysis of biogeographic patterns in isolated populations of small mammals. Such use assumes that species unreported from particular ranges do not, in fact, occur there. Data from the Roberts and Diamond mountains (central Nevada) demonstrate that this assumption is incorrect. The new distributional records from these ranges further decrease the slope of the log species—log area relationship for Great Basin boreal mammals, but increase the nestedness of the montane faunas involved. These data underscore the need for more-thorough assessments of the mammalian faunas of Great Basin mountains, but they also suggest that extinction of boreal mammals on these mountains is even more predictable than has appeared in the past.     

Forest Fragmentation and Bird Extinctions: San Antonio Eighty Years Later

We report on the extent of bird extinctions at San Antonio, a fragmented cloud forest site in the western Andes of Colombia, for which surveys dating back to 1911 and 1959 an available. In 1911, 128 forest bird species were present in San Antonio. Twenty-four species had disappeared by 1959, and since then 16 more species have gone locally extinct, for a total of 40 species or 31% of the original avifauna. We analyzed patterns of extinction in relation to geographic distribution and foraging guilds. We found that in this montane assemblage, being at the limits of the altitudinal distribution was the main correlate of extinction; 37% of the extinct species were at the upper limit of their altiudinal distribution. We also found that the most vulnerable guilds were the understory insectivores and the large canopy frugivores. Our study illustrates the extent of bird extinctions that are currently undocumented in the highly fragmented forests of the northern Andes, where the absence of baseline information on the fauna of unaltered forests is a limiting factor for the development of conservation and management plans. We stress the need to establish data bases and long-term monitoring projects for the Andean fauna.     

The Crumbling Infrastructure of Biodiversity: The Avian Example

The successful conservation of biodiversity depends in part upon an accurate assessment of the diversity to be preserved. This assessment is in the domain of systematics, taxonomy, and general comparative biology. Specimens play a central role in this science, and research collections thus represent the touchstone of biodiversity. The massive job of describing and understanding avian diversity is far from complete, yet the specimen basis for much-needed work is not being added to our collections; current holdings are inadequate. The dwindling influx of specimens is due primarily to opposition to collecting, which is fueled by (1) focusing conservation at the level of the individual; (2) unfamiliarity with population biology; (3) misunderstanding of scientific research; (4) typological thinking; and (5) misplaced morality. Specimen-based avian research has a long and scientifically strong history, and the benefits of this research have been extensive. Our research collections must serve as functional biological libraries. The majority of avian populations can easily withstand the relatively tiny levels of collecting required to keep this science vigorous. Insofar as avian conservation necessarily includes the preservation of a myriad of species comprising the ecosystems upon which birds rely, this problem has broad implications for the conservation of biodiversity.     

Heavy Extinctions of Forest Avifauna in Singapore: Lessons for Biodiversity Conservation in Southeast Asia

Abstract: The consequences of rapid rainforest clearance on native avifauna are poorly understood. In Southeast Asia, Singapore, a newly developing country, has had 95% of its native lowland rainforest cleared. Most of the rainforest was lost in the mid- to late-nineteenth century. We compared avifauna checklists from 1923, 1949, and 1998 to determine the extent of extinctions between 1923 and 1998 in Singapore. Of 203 diurnal bird species, 65 were extirpated in Singapore in the past 75 years. Four of these species were nonforest- dependent species, whereas 61 (94%) were forest bird species dependent on the primary or old secondary forest to survive. Twenty-six forest bird species became extinct between 1923 and 1949, whereas 35 forest species disappeared after 1949. We compared the body lengths, feeding guilds, and vertical feeding zones between extinct and extant forest bird species to determine whether extinction patterns were dependent on these characteristics. Larger forest bird species went extinct between 1923 and 1949. Body sizes, however, did not affect the loss of forest bird species between 1949 and 1998. We observed high losses of insectivorous birds; the insectivore-carnivore and insectivore-granivore guilds lost> 80% of the species present in 1923. The highest losses were among birds that fed in the canopy. None of the forest bird species are currently common (>100 individuals/species) within Singapore. Our study shows that more than half the forest avifauna became locally extinct after extensive deforestation. Based on this fact, the countries within Southeast Asia should reconsider their heavy deforestation practices.     

Adaptive Units for Conservation: Population Distinction and Historic Extinctions in the Island Scrub-Jay

Abstract:  The Island Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma insularis ) is found on Santa Cruz Island, California, and is the only insular bird species in the continental United States. We typed seven microsatellite loci and sequenced a portion of the mitochondrial DNA control region of Island Scrub-Jays and their closest mainland relative, the Western Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma californica ), to assess levels of variability and effective population size and to examine the evolutionary relationship between the two species. The estimated female effective population size, N _ef, of the Island Scrub-Jay was 1603 (90% confidence interval: 1481–1738) and was about 7.5% of the size of the mainland species. Island and Western Scrub-Jays have highly divergent control-region sequences, and the value of 3.14 ± 0.09% sequence divergence between the two species suggests a divergence time of approximately 151,000 years ago. Because the four northern Channel Islands were joined as one large island as recently as 11,000 years ago, extinctions must have occurred on the three other northern Channel islands, Santa Rosa, San Miguel, and Anacapa, highlighting the vulnerability of the remaining population. We assessed the evolutionary significance of four island endemics, including the Island Scrub-Jay, based on both genetic and adaptive divergence. Our results show that the Island Scrub-Jay is a distinct species of high conservation value whose history and adaptive potential is not well predicted by study of other island vertebrates.     

Persistence of Different-sized Populations: An Empirical Assessment of Rapid Extinctions in Bighorn Sheep

Abstract: Theory and simulation models suggest that small populations are more susceptible to extinction than large populations, yet assessment of this idea has been hampered by lack of an empirical base. I address the problem by asking how long different-sized populations persist and present demographic and weather data spanning up to 70 years for 122 bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations in southwestern North America Analyses reveal that: (1) 100 percent of the populations with fewer than 50 individuals went extinct within 50 years; (2) populations with greater than 100 individuals persisted for up to 70 years; and (3) the rapid loss of populations was not likely to be caused by food shortages, severe weather, predation, or interspecific competition These data suggest that population size is a marker of persistence trajectories and they indicate that local extinction cannot be overcome because 50 individuals, even in the short term, are not a minimum viable population size for bighorn sheep.