Modelling and mapping long-term risks due to reactive nitrogen effects: an overview of LRTAP convention activities

Long-range transboundary air pollution has caused severe environmental effects in Europe. European air pollution abatement policy, in the framework of the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP Convention) and the European Union Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme, has used critical loads and their exceedances by atmospheric deposition to design emission abatement targets and strategies. The LRTAP Convention International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping Critical Loads and Levels and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends (ICP M&M) generates European critical loads datasets to enable this work. Developing dynamic nitrogen flux models and using them for a prognosis and assessment of nitrogen effects remains a challenge. Further research is needed on links between nitrogen deposition effects, climate change, and biodiversity.     

Modeling Pareto efficient PM10 control policies in Northern Italy to reduce health effects

High PM10 concentrations can cause human health problems, both related to short-term and long-term exposure to particles. In this work the impact of efficient PM10 control problems in Northern Italy is assessed by means of a two-stage methodology. In the first stage a multi-objective optimization approach is applied. The multi-objective problem defines two control objectives (the emission reduction costs and the air quality index) to be minimized varying the decision variables (precursor emission reductions). The solution of the multi-objective problem is the Pareto efficient PM10 control policies. In the second stage, the ExternE methodology is applied to estimate health impacts and external costs for the efficient emission reduction scenarios computed in the first stage. The methodology has been applied over Lombardia region, one of the most polluted areas in Europe.     

European abatement of surface ozone in a global perspective

EU's programme Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) is presently revising the policy on air quality which will lead to the adoption of a thematic strategy on air pollution under the Sixth Environmental Action Programme by mid-2005. For the abatement of surface ozone it is becoming evident that processes outside European control will be crucial for meeting long-term aims and air quality guidelines in Europe in the future. Measurements and modelling results indicate that there is a strong link between climate change and surface ozone. A warmer and dryer European climate is very likely to lead to increased ozone concentrations. Furthermore, increased anthropogenic emissions in developing economies in Asia are likely to raise the hemispheric background level of ozone. A significant increase in the background concentration of ozone has been observed at several sites in Northern Europe although the underlying causes are not settled. The photochemical formation of tropospheric ozone from increased concentrations of methane and CO may also lead to a higher ozone level on a global scale. Gradually, these effects may outweigh the effect of the reduced European ozone precursor emissions. This calls for a global or hemispheric perspective in the revision of the European air quality policy for ozone.     

Air quality management in Portugal: example of needs and available tools

The Framework Directive (FWD) and the proposed Daughter Directives are the newest legislative instruments concerning a new political strategy and air quality management approach for Europe. Additionally, the member countries of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe have included the concepts of critical load and level for planning air pollution abatement strategies and as a base of international agreements concerning limitation of the emissions of air pollutants. These concepts imply an accurate knowledge about pollutants deposition fluxes. The paper describes the main needs and the tools available to define a strategy of air quality management in Portugal. Two study cases are presented: (1) extensive monitoring plan to assess the impact of an urban incinerator plant; and (2) contribution to a methodology to estimate critical levels for a coastal region in Portugal. These different approaches allowed illustrating the complexity of the implementation of an air pollution management strategy.     

Designing Optimal Strategies to Attain the New U.S. Particulate Matter Standards: Some Initial Concepts

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes that a fundamental principle for designing optimal strategies to attain new U.S. particulate matter (PM) standards be minimization of community and susceptible group exposure to, and inhaled dosage of, ambient PM. Properly done, such minimization maximizes human health risk reduction. To illustrate implementation of such a principle, an initial prototype model, PM Exposure (PMEX), is described that calculates PM exposure and inhaled dosage as figures-of-merit for control strategy optimization. The model accounts for age-occupation and susceptible group activity patterns, indoor-outdoor concentration differences, and geographical location. Modeling results are presented for a hypothetical example, apportioning inhaled dosage among different classes of sources, under alternative assumptions about the relative potency of different PM species categories. The results, while preliminary, demonstrate that conclusions about source class contribution based on inhaled dosage can be appreciably different than those based on ambient air measurements or emission inventories.     

Interpretation of air pollution mortality: number of deaths or years of life lost?

This paper examines the relation between the results of epidemiologic studies of air pollution mortality and impact indicators that can be informative for environmental policy decisions. Using models that are simple and transparent, yet contain the essential features, it is shown that (1) number of deaths is not meaningful for air pollution, whereas loss of life expectancy (LLE) is an appropriate impact indicator; (2) the usual short-term (time series) studies yield a change in daily number of deaths attributable to acute effects of pollution, without any information on the associated LLE (although some information on this has recently become available by extending the observation window of time series); and (3) long-term studies yield a change in age-specific mortality, which makes it possible to calculate the total population averaged LLE (acute and chronic effects) but not the total number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution. The latter is unobservable because one cannot distinguish whether few individuals suffer a large or many suffer a small LLE. The paper calculates the LLE from exposure to PM10, as implied by the long-term mortality studies of adults and infants; population LLE for infants turns out to be an order of magnitude smaller than for adults. The LLE implied by short-term studies is a small fraction of the total loss implied by long-term studies, even if one assumes a very high loss per death. Applied to environmental policy, taking a permanent 50-70% reduction of PM10 as a reasonable goal, one finds a corresponding increase of average life expectancy in urban areas of the European Union (EU) and the United States of approximately four months.     

Characterization of particulate matter for three sites in Kuwait

Many studies have shown strong associations between particulate matter (PM) levels and a variety of health outcomes, leading to changes in air quality standards in many regions, especially the United States and Europe. Kuwait, a desert country located on the Persian Gulf, has a large petroleum industry with associated industrial and urban land uses. It was marked by environmental destruction from the 1990 Iraqi invasion and subsequent oil fires. A detailed particle characterization study was conducted over 12 months in 2004-2005 at three sites simultaneously with an additional 6 months at one of the sites. Two sites were in urban areas (central and southern) and one in a remote desert location (northern). This paper reports the concentrations of particles less than 10 microm in diameter (PM10) and fine PM (PM2.5), as well as fine particle nitrate, sulfate, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and elements measured at the three sites. Mean annual concentrations for PM10 ranged from 66 to 93 microg/m3 across the three sites, exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM10 of 20 microg/m3. The arithmetic mean PM2.5 concentrations varied from 38 and 37 microg/m3 at the central and southern sites, respectively, to 31 microg/m3 at the northern site. All sites had mean PM2.5 concentrations more than double the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM2.5. Coarse particles comprised 50-60% of PM10. The high levels of PM10 and large fraction of coarse particles comprising PM10 are partially explained by the resuspension of dust and soil from the desert crust. However, EC, OC, and most of the elements were significantly higher at the urbanized sites, compared with the more remote northern site, indicating significant pollutant contributions from local mobile and stationary sources. The particulate levels in this study are high enough to generate substantial health impacts and present opportunities for improving public health by reducing airborne PM.     

First assessment of the PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> and PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> particulate level in the ambient air of belgrade city

INTENTION, GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: As the strong negative health effect of exposure to the inhalable particulate matter PM10 in the urban environment has been confirmed, the study of the mass concentrations, physico-chemical characteristics, sources, as well as spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric aerosol particles becomes very important. OBJECTIVE: This work is a pilot study to assess the concentration level of ambient suspended particulate matter, with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 microm, in the Belgrade central urban area. Average daily concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 have been measured at three representative points in the city between June 2002 and December 2002. The influence of meteorological parameters on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations was analyzed, and possible pollution sources were identified. METHODS: Suspended particles were collected on Pure Teflon filters by using a Mini-Vol low-volume air sampler (Airmetrics Co., Inc.; 5 l min(-1) flow rate). Particle mass was determined gravimetrically after 48 h of conditioning in a desiccator, in a Class 100 clean room at the temperature T = 20 degrees C and at about 50% constant relative humidity (RH). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Analysis of the PM10 data indicated a marked difference between season without heating--(summer; mean value 56 microg m(-3)) and heating season--(winter; mean value 96 microg m3); 62% of samples exceeded the level of 50 microg m(-3). The impact of meteorological factors on PM concentrations was not immediately apparent, but there was a significant negative correlation with the wind speed. CONCLUSIONS: The PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentrations in the Belgrade urban area had high average values (77 microg m(-3) and 61 microg m(-3)) in comparison with other European cities. The main sources of particulate matter were traffic emission, road dust resuspension, and individual heating emissions. When the air masses are coming from the SW direction, the contribution from the Obrenovac power plants is evident. During days of exceptionally severe pollution, in both summer and winter periods, high production of secondary aerosols occurred, as can be seen from an increase in PM2.5 in respect to PM10 mass concentration. RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK: The results obtained gave us the first impression of the concentration level of particulate matter, with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 microm, in the Belgrade ambient air. Due to measured high PM mass concentrations, it is obvious that it would be very difficult to meet the EU standards (EEC 1999) by 2010. It is necessary to continue with PM10 and PM2.5 sampling; and after comprehensive analysis which includes the results of chemical and physical characterization of particles, we will be able to recommend effective control measures in order to improve air quality in Belgrade.     

A reanalysis of fine particulate matter air pollution versus life expectancy in the United States

A reduction in population exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) has been associated with improvements in life expectancy. This article presents a reanalysis of this relationship and comments on the results from a study on the reduction of ambient air PM_2.5 concentrations versus life expectancy in metropolitan areas of the United States. The results of the reanalysis show that the statistical significance of the correlation is lost after removing one of the metropolitan areas from the regression analysis, suggesting that the results may not be suitable for a meaningful and reliable inference.

Implications: The observed loss of statistical significance in the correlation between the reduction of ambient air PM_2.5 concentrations and life expectancy in metropolitan areas of the United States, after removing one of the metropolitan areas from the regression analysis, may raise concern for the policymakers in decisions regarding further reductions in permitted levels of air pollution emissions.     

A review of the impact of fireworks on particulate matter in ambient air

To determine the impact of fireworks (FW) and firecrackers (FC) on particulate matter (PM) in ambient air, we reviewed evidence related to ambient PM during FW/FC periods; specifically, PM concentration, size, morphology, chemical components, including water-soluble ions and trace metals, and associated human health risks caused by exposure to FW/FC PM were reviewed. A large body of research suggests that outdoor ambient PM levels increase significantly during FW/FC displays. Furthermore, FW/FC PM remains suspended in the air, contributing to high PM concentrations for a long period. Increased PM from burning FW and FC mainly comprises fine and ultrafine spherical particles. Elevated levels of various trace metals, ions, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and organics in PM are present during FW/FC periods.Implications: Unique physical and chemical properties of ambient PM during short-term FW/FC burning can lead to a substantial increase in adverse health effects compared with during non-FW/FC periods. Further epidemiological and toxicological research into the potential health effects resulting from exposure to various pollutants from FW/FC is vital. Geographical distributions of PM concentrations during FW displays highlight the importance of implementing PM controls at the regional level and formulating stricter protective environmental legislation, particularly in Asian (e.g., India, China, or Taiwan) where festivals are not the only periods celebrated with FW/FC.     

Influence of particulate matter on the air quality situation in a mediterranean island

The objective of this study was to describe the ambient levels of particulate matter (PM) and its influence to air quality situation on the dry Mediterranean island of Cyprus. From October 2002 to August 2003 PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 samples were collected at 31 different sampling sites in Cyprus. In addition, continuous measurements of PM₁₀ were carried out from 2003 to 2007 at a traffic and a rural site. It can be recognised that at all traffic and at some residential and urban background sites, the actual EU limit values have been exceeded. Special events e.g. long-range transport of Sahara dust storms were recorded over urban as well as rural areas in the order of 6–8 events per year, with a major frequency in summer and spring periods. The comparison of the PM₁₀ concentrations in Cyprus cities with values of other European cities demonstrates the PM₁₀ problem in Cyprus, especially in the dry summer season, when no rain is cleaning the air and the dry surfaces. This underlines the necessity of PM abatement strategies.     

Assessment of population exposure to particulate matter pollution in Chongqing, China

To determine the population exposure to PM(10) in Chongqing, China, we developed an indirect model by combining information on the time activity patterns of various demographic subgroups with estimates of the PM(10) concentrations in different microenvironments (MEs). The spatial and temporal variations of the exposure to PM(10) were illustrated in a geographical information system (GIS). The population weighted exposure (PWE) for the entire population was 229, 155 and 211 microg/m(3), respectively, in winter, summer and as the annual average. Indoor PM(10) level at home was the largest contributor to the PWE, especially for the rural areas where high pollution levels were found due to solid fuels burning. Elder people had higher PM(10) exposure than adults and youth, due to more time spent in indoor MEs. The highest health risk due to particulate was found in the city zone and northeast regions, suggesting that pollution abatement should be prioritized in these areas.     

Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect

Efforts to understand and mitigate thehealth effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollutionhave a rich and interesting history. This review focuseson six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There hasbeen substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidiity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonaryhealth. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.     

Validity of ambient levels of fine particles as surrogate for personal exposure to outdoor air pollution--results of the European EXPOLIS-EAS Study (Swiss Center Basel)

To evaluate the validity of fixed-site fine particle levels as exposure surrogates in air pollution epidemiology, we considered four indicator groups: (1) PM2.5 total mass concentrations, (2) sulfur and potassium for regional air pollution, (3) lead and bromine for traffic-related particles, and (4) calcium for crustal particles. Using data from the European EXPOLIS (Air Pollution Exposure Distribution within Adult Urban Populations in Europe) study, we assessed the associations between 48-hr personal exposures and home outdoor levels of the indicators. Furthermore, within-city variability of fine particle levels was evaluated. Personal exposures to PM2.5 mass were not correlated to corresponding home outdoor levels (n = 44, rSpearman (Sp) = 0.07). In the group reporting neither relevant indoor sources nor relevant activities, personal exposures and home outdoor levels of sulfur were highly correlated (n = 40, rSp = 0.85). In contrast, the associations were weaker for traffic (Pb: n = 44, rSp = 0.53; Br: n = 44, rSp = 0.21) and crustal (Ca: n = 44, rSp = 0.12) indicators. This contrast is consistent with spatially homogeneous regional pollution and higher spatial variability of traffic and crustal indicators observed in Basel, Switzerland. We conclude that for regional air pollution, fixed-site fine particle levels are valid exposure surrogates. For source-specific exposures, however, fixed-site data are probably not the optimal measure. Still, in air pollution epidemiology, ambient PM2.5 levels may be more appropriate exposure estimates than total personal PM2.5 exposure, since the latter reflects a mixture of indoor and outdoor sources.     

Health Effects of Fine Particulate Air Pollution: Lines that Connect

Abstract

Efforts to understand and mitigate the health effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution have a rich and interesting history. This review focuses on six substantial lines of research that have been pursued since 1997 that have helped elucidate our understanding about the effects of PM on human health. There has been substantial progress in the evaluation of PM health effects at different time-scales of exposure and in the exploration of the shape of the concentration-response function. There has also been emerging evidence of PM-related cardiovascular health effects and growing knowledge regarding interconnected general pathophysiological pathways that link PM exposure with cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Despite important gaps in scientific knowledge and continued reasons for some skepticism, a comprehensive evaluation of the research findings provides persuasive evidence that exposure to fine particulate air pollution has adverse effects on cardiopulmonary health. Although much of this research has been motivated by environmental public health policy, these results have important scientific, medical, and public health implications that are broader than debates over legally mandated air quality standards.     

Regional air pollution at a turning point

The control of transboundary air pollution in Europe has been successful. Emissions of many key pollutants are decreasing and there are signs of improvements in damaged ecosystems. The strategies under development within the CAFE programme under the European Commission and the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), aim to take regional air pollution control a large step further, in particular with respect to small particles. In this paper we highlight the new strategies but look primarily at socioeconomic trends and climate change feedbacks that may have a significant influence on the outcome of the strategies and which so far have not been considered. In particular, we point out the influence on air quality of increased summer temperatures in Europe and of increasing emissions including international shipping, outside of Europe. Taken together the further emissions reductions in Europe and the increasing background pollution, slowly cause a greying of the Northern Hemisphere troposphere rather than the traditional picture of dominant emissions in Europe and North America ('black') with much lower emission intensities elsewhere ('white'). A hemispheric approach to further combat air pollution will become necessary in Europe and elsewhere.     

Distant source contributions to PM10 profile evaluated by SOM based cluster analysis of air mass trajectory sets

This paper evaluates the effects of long-range transport patterns of air masses to the regional PM profile in a megacity, Istanbul, Turkey. Five-day hourly backward trajectories were obtained by the HYSPLIT model for selected episodic events in 2008. Self Organizing Maps (SOM), a very powerful classification tool, was used to cluster these trajectories. In total, eight cluster groups were obtained. All of the clusters were evaluated with respect to inhalable particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations observed in Istanbul for the arrival times of the trajectories. Istanbul is generally under the effect of trajectories in three clusters (1, 2 and 4) (52% of all pre-selected episodic events), which have higher mean concentration values than the mean value of all the samples. These clusters typically make significant PM contributions to Istanbul's air quality. PM loadings of the trajectories in these clusters were attributed to massive anthropogenic activity over all of Europe and southwestern air flow most likely carrying PM₁₀ atmospheric particles originating from the Saharan Desert and other global dust generation regions located in the northern part of Africa.     

Managing emissions from highly industrialized areas: Regulatory compliance under uncertainty

The use of regulatory and compliance-based modeling for air quality impact assessment is invariably relied upon to predict future air quality under various management scenarios particularly where air quality monitoring data are limited. This paper examines the dispersion from a multi-stack cement manufacturing complex with associated quarries and transport activities for regulatory compliance under uncertain emission and meteorological conditions. The concentrations of CO, NO_x, SO₂ and PM at sensitive receptor locations were used as indicators in comparison to World Health Organization (WHO) interim guidelines. Exceedance exposure areas were delineated under bounded uncertainties in input emission factors and meteorological parameters. Planning and management initiatives were tested to control/minimize potential exposure. Compared to the case of low emissions and actual meteorological conditions, the consideration of worst emissions coupled to worst meteorological conditions enlarged the boundaries of the exceedance exposure areas considerably. The implementation of best available technologies and enforcement of emission standards improved air quality in the region significantly and lowered the exposure at many population centers to below health standards. Uncertainty in the output of atmospheric dispersion models continues to play a significant role to be considered at the point where science is translated into political decision making.     

Comparison of ambient PM risk with risks estimated from PM components of smoking and occupational exposures

Air pollution studies are based on individual-level health response data and group-level exposure data. Therefore, exposure misclassification occurs, and the results may be biased to an unknown magnitude and direction. Testing the validity of such associations requires a study design using individual-level data for both exposure and response. One can test the plausibility of group-level PM risk estimates by comparing them to individual-level estimates of risk from constituents of ambient air. The twofold purpose of this review is to consider the internal consistency of risks estimated from the three major PM cohort studies and to determine individual-level mortality risks associated with ambient concentrations of tobacco smoke and occupational exposures and compare them with risks associated with ambient PM. The paper demonstrates the risks are not consistent within and between the PM cohort studies. Higher ambient concentration risks (ACRs) from the ambient PM cohort studies are not coherent with ACRs derived from individual-level smoking and occupational risks for total, cardiopulmonary, and lung cancer mortality. Individual-level studies suggest increased risk of mortality cannot be measured with reliability at concentrations found in ambient air.     

An empirical relationship between PM(2.5) and aerosol optical depth in Delhi Metropolitan

Atmospheric remote sensing offers a unique opportunity to compute indirect estimates of air quality, which are critically important for the management and surveillance of air quality in megacities of developing countries, particularly in India and China, which have experienced elevated concentration of air pollution but lack adequate spatial-temporal coverage of air pollution monitoring. This article examines the relationship between aerosol optical depth (AOD) estimated from satellite data at 5 km spatial resolution and the mass of fine particles ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) monitored on the ground in Delhi Metropolitan where a series of environmental laws have been instituted in recent years.PM(2.5) monitored at 113 sites were collocated by time and space with the AOD computed using the data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS onboard the Terra satellite). MODIS data were acquired from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). Our analysis shows a significant positive association between AOD and PM(2.5). After controlling for weather conditions, a 1% change in AOD explains 0.52±0.202% and 0.39±0.15% change in PM(2.5) monitored within ±45 and 150 min intervals of AOD data. This relationship will be used to estimate air quality surface for previous years, which will allow us to examine the time-space dynamics of air pollution in Delhi following recent air quality regulations, and to assess exposure to air pollution before and after the regulations and its impact on health.