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1.
Potential health risks and cleanup costs are primary factors for measuring the effectiveness of a remediation project concerning a site contaminated with residual radioactive materials. Demanding cleanup of a contaminated site to its original condition, while eliminating any health risks after cleanup, can require prohibitive costs. However, by setting practical remediation objectives and by performing realistic but conservative risk assessments, health risks can be acceptable and cleanup costs can be reasonable. This article uses the South-Middle and Southeast Vaults Decontamination and Demolition Project at Argonne National Laboratory to demonstrate how negligible health risks can result after cleanup with minimal cleanup costs. Substantial cost savings of approximately $2 million was realized by implementing in-place decontamination and demolition (D&D) on the basis of acceptable risk, instead of requiring cleanup of the site to its original condition. By using the RESRAD computer program as a modeling tool, we show the maximum projected radiation dose (0.1 mrem per year) and the potential lifetime cancer risk (on the order of 106) to an individual from exposure to the residual radioactivities are negligibly small. In addition to aiding in the selection of a preferred remediation alternative, results of the RESRAD modeling were also used to guide the implementation of the selected alternative to reduce exposures from the dominant pathway and to ensure that exposures from all pathways would be as low as reasonably achievable.  相似文献   

2.
Fugitive pollutant emissions from municipal solid waste landfills have the potential to cause annoyance and health impacts in the surrounding residential areas. The overall objective of this research was to perform an assessment of fugitive pollutant emissions and a dispersion analysis downwind of a specific landfill site. The study was performed at the closed Ano Liosia landfill site which is located in the greater Athens area. The human exposure from priority to health-risk pollutants emitted from landfill, such as vinyl chloride and benzene, was estimated by the landfill gas emission LandGEM 2.01 software combined with the atmospheric long-term dispersion model ISC3-LT. The emission and meteorological conditions under which the models were applied referred to the worst-case scenario. This scenario was used for the evaluation of the maximum human exposure assessed beyond the Ano Liosia landfill towards the residential areas. The above scenario provides the minimum downwind distance of the health-risk zone which is calculated to be equal to 1.5 km from the landfill. Within this distance the assessed air pollutant concentration for several air pollutants was significantly above the World Health Organization reference lifetime exposure health criteria. Finally, the applied methodology was used in the Ano Liosia landfill, where atmospheric concentrations of pollutants measured in the field were compared with model predictions.  相似文献   

3.
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been used to assess the environmental impacts associated with an activity or product life cycle. It has also been applied to assess the environmental performance related to waste management activities. This study analyses the packaging waste management system of a local public authority in Portugal. The operations of selective and refuse collection, sorting, recycling, landfilling and incineration of packaging waste were considered. The packaging waste management system in operation in 2010, which we called “Baseline” scenario, was compared with two hypothetical scenarios where all the packaging waste that was selectively collected in 2010 would undergo the refuse collection system and would be sent directly to incineration (called “Incineration” scenario) or to landfill (“Landfill” scenario). Overall, the results show that the “Baseline” scenario is more environmentally sound than the hypothetical scenarios.  相似文献   

4.
The aim of this research activity is to investigate the environmental impact of different thermal treatments of waste electric and electronic equipment (WEEE), applying a life cycle assessment methodology. Two scenarios were assessed, which both allow the recovery of bromine: (A) the co-combustion of WEEE and green waste in a municipal solid waste combustion plant, and (B) the staged-gasification of WEEE and combustion of produced syngas in gas turbines. Mass and energy balances on the two scenarios were set and the analysis of the life cycle inventory and the life cycle impact assessment were conducted. Two impact assessment methods (Ecoindicator 99 and Impact 2002+) were slightly modified and then used with both scenarios. The results showed that scenario B (staged-gasification) had a potentially smaller environmental impact than scenario A (co-combustion). In particular, the thermal treatment of staged-gasification was more energy efficient than co-combustion, and therefore scenario B performed better than scenario A, mainly in the impact categories of "fossil fuels" and "climate change". Moreover, the results showed that scenario B allows a higher recovery of bromine than scenario A; however, Br recovery leads to environmental benefits for both the scenarios. Finally the study demonstrates that WEEE thermal treatment for energy and matter recovery is an eco-efficient way to dispose of this kind of waste.  相似文献   

5.
The contribution of existing municipal solid waste management to emission of greenhouse gases and the alternative scenarios to reduce emissions were analyzed for Data Ganj Bukhsh Town (DGBT) in Lahore, Pakistan using the life cycle assessment methodology. DGBT has a population of 1,624,169 people living in 232,024 dwellings. Total waste generated is 500,000 tons per year with an average per capita rate of 0.84kg per day. Alternative scenarios were developed and evaluated according to the environmental, economic, and social atmosphere of the study area. Solid waste management options considered include the collection and transportation of waste, collection of recyclables with single and mixed material bank container systems (SMBCS, MMBCS), material recovery facilities (MRF), composting, biogasification and landfilling. A life cycle inventory (LCI) of the six scenarios along with the baseline scenario was completed; this helped to quantify the CO2 equivalents, emitted and avoided, for energy consumption, production, fuel consumption, and methane (CH4) emissions. LCI results showed that the contribution of the baseline scenario to the global warming potential as CO2 equivalents was a maximum of 838,116 tons. The sixth scenario had a maximum reduction of GHG emissions in terms of CO2 equivalents of -33,773 tons, but the most workable scenario for the current situation in the study area is scenario 5. It saves 25% in CO2 equivalents compared to the baseline scenario.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, an interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-chance-constrained mixed-integer linear programming (ISIFCIP) approach is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing interval-parameter semi-infinite programming (ISIP) and fuzzy-chance-constrained programming (FCCP) by incorporating uncertainties expressed as dual uncertainties of functional intervals and multiple uncertainties of distributions with fuzzy-interval admissible probability of violating constraint within a general optimization framework. The binary-variable solutions represent the decisions of waste-management-facility expansion, and the continuous ones are related to decisions of waste-flow allocation. The interval solutions can help decision-makers to obtain multiple decision alternatives, as well as provide bases for further analyses of tradeoffs between waste-management cost and system-failure risk.In the application to the City of Regina, Canada, two scenarios are considered. In Scenario 1, the City’s waste-management practices would be based on the existing policy over the next 25 years. The total diversion rate for the residential waste would be approximately 14%. Scenario 2 is associated with a policy for waste minimization and diversion, where 35% diversion of residential waste should be achieved within 15 years, and 50% diversion over 25 years. In this scenario, not only landfill would be expanded, but also CF and MRF would be expanded. Through the scenario analyses, useful decision support for the City’s solid-waste managers and decision-makers has been generated.Three special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it is useful for tackling multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, functional intervals, probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations; secondly, it has capability in addressing the temporal variations of the functional intervals; thirdly, it can facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period and multi-option context.  相似文献   

7.
A probabilistic approach is presented for estimating the release of contaminants by leaching, when wastes are being considered for disposal in a class of landfills but the specific landfill disposal site is uncertain. A simple percolation and equilibrium-based release model is used in conjunction with laboratory testing results and observations of field leachate characteristics for municipal solid waste landfills, hazardous waste landfills and industrial co-disposal landfills. The approach is applied for assessing the efficacy of potential treatment processes for mercury contaminated soils. For each landfill scenario, historical values of leachate pH and annual leachate generation quantities were used to derive the probability distribution functions of the field pH and LS ratio that may be expected to contact the disposed material over an estimated time period of 100 years. For each potential treatment process, laboratory testing was used to establish the treated material's leaching characteristics as a function of pH LS ratio. This approach allowed determination of distribution frequencies and limit values for release estimates instead of single point estimates. The probability of the mass of a constituent of interest released exceeding a hypothetical threshold was examined for each treatment process and landfill system. Results of the probabilistic analysis allowed for integration of a range of data and provided a good basis for assessing the efficacy of the examined treatment processes over the three assumed disposal scenarios.  相似文献   

8.
This study evaluates the environmental performance and discounted costs of the incineration and landfilling of municipal solid waste that is ready for the final disposal while accounting for existing waste diversion initiatives, using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Parameters such as changing waste generation quantities, diversion rates and waste composition were also considered. Two scenarios were assessed in this study on how to treat the waste that remains after diversion. The first scenario is the status quo, where the entire residual waste was landfilled whereas in the second scenario approximately 50% of the residual waste was incinerated while the remainder is landfilled. Electricity was produced in each scenario. Data from the City of Toronto was used to undertake this study. Results showed that the waste diversion initiatives were more effective in reducing the organic portion of the waste, in turn, reducing the net electricity production of the landfill while increasing the net electricity production of the incinerator. Therefore, the scenario that incorporated incineration performed better environmentally and contributed overall to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions because of the displacement of power plant emissions; however, at a noticeably higher cost. Although landfilling proves to be the better financial option, it is for the shorter term. The landfill option would require the need of a replacement landfill much sooner. The financial and environmental effects of this expenditure have yet to be considered.  相似文献   

9.
Incineration ashes may be treated either as a waste to be dumped in landfill, or as a resource that is suitable for re-use. In order to choose the best management scenario, knowledge is needed on the potential environmental impact that may be expected, including not only local, but also regional and global impact. In this study, A life cycle assessment (LCA) based approach was outlined for environmental assessment of incinerator residue utilisation, in which leaching of trace elements as well as other emissions to air and water and the use of resources were regarded as constituting the potential environmental impact from the system studied. Case studies were performed for two selected ash types, bottom ash from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) and wood fly ash. The MSWI bottom ash was assumed to be suitable for road construction or as drainage material in landfill, whereas the wood fly ash was assumed to be suitable for road construction or as a nutrient resource to be recycled on forest land after biofuel harvesting. Different types of potential environmental impact predominated in the activities of the system and the use of natural resources and the trace element leaching were identified as being relatively important for the scenarios compared. The scenarios differed in use of resources and energy, whereas there is a potential for trace element leaching regardless of how the material is managed. Utilising MSWI bottom ash in road construction and recycling of wood ash on forest land saved more natural resources and energy than when these materials were managed according to the other scenarios investigated, including dumping in landfill.  相似文献   

10.
Natural aggregates (NA) are crushed and processed in crushing plants after the extraction stage in quarries. In the present study, the aggregates are divided into three scenarios, depending on the production methods. The first scenario considers the production of NA, the second scenario deals with the production of recycled aggregates (RA) with respect to construction and demolition waste, and the third scenario, which is a hybrid scenario, handles the combination of NA and RA by assuming a 50% mixing percentage. In this research, we assess the environmental impacts on the production of aggregates via each scenario, using life cycle assessment; in addition, energy consumption and CO2 emissions are considered as the environmental variables. We conclude that Iran’s current policy with an annual energy consumption of 1.48 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) can have a footprint of 2.88 million tons of CO2 eq emissions per year (the first scenario). Achieving 30 and 36% reduction in annual energy consumption and CO2 emissions, respectively, by the third scenario compared to the first scenario indicates the destructive effect of the first scenario from the environmental outlook.  相似文献   

11.

The first draft scenario toward net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 for the material cycles and waste management sector was presented by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan in August 2021. The details of the future GHG emission estimation used to create the draft scenario are described in this document. For multiple scenarios where more aggressive measures, such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), were included in addition to business-as-usual and the current policy continuity scenario, future GHG emissions were estimated as the sum of the products of activities and emission factors indicating changes in measures between scenarios. The estimation outcomes demonstrated that future GHG emissions from the solid waste management sector could be anticipated to be zero or even negative when material conversion to biomass, primarily for plastics, recycling to raw materials, and installation of CCUS at incineration facilities are assumed. Extensions of prior plans are not enough to reach the goal of net zero emissions, according to the measures necessary and the volume and pace of their implementation suggested in this study. Stakeholders should collaborate with great ambition.

  相似文献   

12.
Recycling of paper and glass from household waste is an integrated part of waste management in Denmark, however, increased recycling is a legislative target. The questions are: how much more can the recycling rate be increased through improvements of collection schemes when organisational and technical limitations are respected, and what will the environmental and economic consequences be? This was investigated in a case study of a municipal waste management system. Five scenarios with alternative collection systems for recyclables (paper, glass, metal and plastic packaging) were assessed by means of a life cycle assessment and an assessment of the municipality’s costs. Kerbside collection would provide the highest recycling rate, 31% compared to 25% in the baseline scenario, but bring schemes with drop-off containers would also be a reasonable solution. Collection of recyclables at recycling centres was not recommendable because the recycling rate would decrease to 20%. In general, the results showed that enhancing recycling and avoiding incineration was recommendable because the environmental performance was improved in several impact categories. The municipal costs for collection and treatment of waste were reduced with increasing recycling, mainly because the high cost for incineration was avoided. However, solutions for mitigation of air pollution caused by increased collection and transport should be sought.  相似文献   

13.
Life cycle assessment for sewage sludge treatment was carried out by estimating the environmental and economic impacts of the six alternative scenarios most often used in Japan: dewatering, composting, drying, incineration, incinerated ash melting and dewatered sludge melting, each with or without digestion. Three end-of-life treatments were also studied: landfilling, agricultural application and building material application. The results demonstrate that sewage sludge digestion can reduce the environmental load and cost through reduced dry matter volume. The global warming potential (GWP) generated from incineration and melting processes can be significantly reduced through the reuse of waste heat for electricity and/or heat generation. Equipment production in scenarios except dewatering has an important effect on GWP, whereas the contribution of construction is negligible. In addition, the results show that the dewatering scenario has the highest impact on land use and cost, the drying scenario has the highest impact on GWP and acidification, and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the highest impact on human toxicity due to re-emissions of heavy metals from incinerated ash in the melting unit process. On the contrary, the dewatering, composting and incineration scenarios generate the lowest impact on human toxicity, land use and acidification, respectively, and the incinerated ash melting scenario has the lowest impact on GWP and cost. Heavy metals released from atmospheric effluents generated the highest human toxicity impact, with the effect of dioxin emissions being significantly lower. This study proved that the dewatered sludge melting scenario is an environmentally optimal and economically affordable method.  相似文献   

14.
Characterisation of the leaching behaviour of waste-containing materials is a crucial step in the environmental assessment for reuse scenarios. In our research we applied the multi-step European methodology ENV 12-920 to the leaching assessment of road materials containing metallurgical slag. A Zn slag from an imperial smelting furnace (ISF) and a Pb slag from a lead blast furnace (LBF) are investigated. The two slags contain up to 11.2 wt% of lead and 3.5 wt% of zinc and were introduced as a partial substitute for sand in two road materials, namely sand-cement and sand-bitumen. At the laboratory scale, a leaching assessment was performed first through batch equilibrium leaching tests. Second, the release rate of the contaminants was evaluated using saturated leaching tests on monolithic material. Third, laboratory tests were conducted on monolithic samples under intermittent wetting conditions. Pilot-scale tests were conducted for field testing of intermittent wetting conditions. The results show that the release of Pb and Zn from the materials in a saturated scenario was controlled by the pH of the leachates. For the intermittent wetting conditions, an additional factor, blocking of the pores by precipitation during the drying phase is proposed. Pilot-scale leaching behaviour only partially matched with the laboratory-scale test results: new mass transfer mechanisms and adapted laboratory leaching tests are discussed.  相似文献   

15.
Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology was used to determine the optimum municipal solid waste (MSW) management strategy for Eskisehir city. Eskisehir is one of the developing cities of Turkey where a total of approximately 750tons/day of waste is generated. An effective MSW management system is needed in this city since the generated MSW is dumped in an unregulated dumping site that has no liner, no biogas capture, etc. Therefore, five different scenarios were developed as alternatives to the current waste management system. Collection and transportation of waste, a material recovery facility (MRF), recycling, composting, incineration and landfilling processes were considered in these scenarios. SimaPro7 libraries were used to obtain background data for the life cycle inventory. One ton of municipal solid waste of Eskisehir was selected as the functional unit. The alternative scenarios were compared through the CML 2000 method and these comparisons were carried out from the abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, acidification, eutrophication and photochemical ozone depletion points of view. According to the comparisons and sensitivity analysis, composting scenario, S3, is the more environmentally preferable alternative. In this study waste management alternatives were investigated only on an environmental point of view. For that reason, it might be supported with other decision-making tools that consider the economic and social effects of solid waste management.  相似文献   

16.
Vapor intrusion characterization efforts are challenging due to complexities associated with indoor background sources, preferential subsurface migration pathways, indoor and shallow subsurface concentration dynamics, and representativeness limitations associated with manual monitoring and characterization methods. For sites experiencing trichloroethylene (TCE) vapor intrusion, the potential for acute risks poses additional challenges, as the need for rapid response to acute toxicity threshold exceedances is critical in order to minimize health risks and associated liabilities. Currently accepted discrete time‐integrated vapor intrusion monitoring methods that employ passive diffusion–adsorption and canister samplers often do not result in sufficient temporal or spatial sampling resolution in dynamic settings, have a propensity to yield false negative and false positive results, and are not able to prevent receptors from acute exposure risks, as sample processing times exceed exposure durations of concern. Multiple lines of evidence have been advocated for in an attempt to reduce some of these uncertainties. However, implementation of multiple lines of evidence do not afford rapid response capabilities and typically rely on discrete time‐integrated sample collection methods prone to nonrepresentative results due to concentration dynamics. Recent technology innovations have resulted in the deployment of continuous monitoring platforms composed of multiplexed laboratory grade analytical components integrated with quality control features, telemetry, geographical information systems, and interpolation algorithms for automatically generating geospatial time stamped renderings and time‐weighted averages through a cloud‐based data management platform. Automated alerts and responses can be engaged within 1 minute of a threshold exceedance detection. Superior temporal and spatial resolution also results in optimized remediation design and mitigation system performance confirmation. While continuous monitoring has been acknowledged by the regulatory community as a viable option for providing superior results when addressing spatial and temporal dynamics, until very recently, these approaches have been considered impractical due to cost constraints and instrumentation limitations. Recent instrumentation advancements via automation and multiplexing allow for rapid and continuous assessment and response from multiple locations using a single instrument. These advancements have reduced costs to the point where they are now competitive with discrete time‐integrated methods. In order to gain more regulatory and industry support for these viable options, there is an immediate need to perform a realistic cost comparison between currently approved discrete time‐integrated methods and newly fielded continuous monitoring platforms. Regulatory support for continuous monitoring platforms will result in more effectively protecting the public, provide property owners with information sufficient to more accurately address potential liabilities, reduce unnecessary remediation costs for situations where risks are minimal, lead to more effective and surgical remediation strategies, and allow practitioners to most effectively evaluate remediation system performance. To address this need, a series of common monitoring scenarios and associated assumptions were derived and cost comparisons performed. Scenarios included variables such as number of monitoring locations, duration, costs to meet quality control requirements, and number of analyses performed within a given monitoring campaign. Results from this effort suggest that for relatively larger sites where five or more locations will be monitored (e.g., large buildings, multistructure industrial complexes, educational facilities, or shallow groundwater plumes with significant spatial footprints under residential neighborhoods), procurement of continuous monitoring services is often less expensive than implementation of discrete time‐integrated monitoring services. For instance, for a 1‐week monitoring campaign, costs‐per‐analysis for continuous monitoring ranges from approximately 1 to 3 percent of discrete time‐integrated method costs for the scenarios investigated. Over this same one‐week duration, for discrete time‐integrated options, the number of sample analyses equals the number of data collection points (which ranged from 5 to 30 for this effort). In contrast, the number of analyses per week for the continuous monitoring option equals 672, or four analyses per hour. This investigation also suggests that continuous automated monitoring can be cost‐effective for multiple one‐week campaigns on a quarterly or semi‐annual basis in lieu of discrete time‐integrated monitoring options. In addition to cost benefits, automated responses are embedded within the continuous monitoring service and, therefore, provide acute TCE risk‐preventative capabilities that are not possible using discrete time‐integrated passive sampling methods, as the discrete time‐integrated services include analytical efforts that require more time than the exposure duration of concern. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   

17.
LCA for household waste management when planning a new urban settlement   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
When planning for a new urban settlement, industrial ecology tools like scenario building and life cycle assessment can be used to assess the environmental quality of different infrastructure solutions. In Trondheim, a new greenfield settlement with carbon-neutral ambitions is being planned and five different scenarios for the waste management system of the new settlement have been compared. The results show small differences among the scenarios, however, some benefits from increased source separation of paper and metal could be found. The settlement should connect to the existing waste management system of the city, and not resort to decentralised waste treatment or recovery methods. However, as this is an urban development project with ambitious goals for lifestyle changes, effort should be put into research and initiatives for proactive waste prevention and reuse issues.  相似文献   

18.
Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are emitted in trace amounts from municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerators. The exposure to PCDD/Fs experienced by an individual is dominated by the food chain pathway, which accounts for over 98% of the total uptake. Defining a target daily intake (the World Health Organization TDI of 10 pg I-TEQ kg.bw−1day−1) exposure assessment algorithms were then applied to arrive at the corresponding PCDD/F levels in air, soil, plants, food products, etc., which would allow the target intake to be met while retaining the balance of intake between the various exposure pathways. These concentrations were converted to an ambient air concentration of PCDD/Fs and ultimately, by defining criteria for acceptability, to a guide value for PCDD/F concentration in emissions from the MSW incinerator. This strategy was applied to PCDD/F emissions from MSW incinerators of various sizes against two illustrative criteria for acceptability: an “insignificant” release and a threshold above which the release may require further assessment for environmental effects and for control. Using the criteria developed in this paper, the current PCDD/F emission limit of 0.1 ng I-TEQ m−3results in an emission that is classed as “insignificant” for all plant sizes. However, higher emission concentrations can also be accommodated below the threshold for further assessment and control.  相似文献   

19.
Characterization of the leaching behavior of wastes is a crucial step in the environmental assessment for reuse or disposal scenarios. The release of inorganic contaminants from waste materials is typically evaluated by tank leaching of continuously water-saturated material. However, materials, in many field or management scenarios, experience cyclic wetting and drying under varied environmental conditions (i.e. variable relative humidity, atmospheric CO2 or CO2 from biologic activities). During periods of storage in an unsaturated environment, many processes may occur that can influence the release potential and release rate of inorganic constituents. The research presented here was carried out to examine how the phenomena of carbonation during drying influence the release of inorganic contaminants from Portland cement-based materials during cyclic wetting and storage. Batch equilibrium leaching tests were used to determine constituent solubility as a function of pH. Dynamic leaching tests on monolithic material were carried out to determine the rate of constituent release as a function of leaching time and intermittent storage conditions. This paper presents the results observed for three typical waste constituents, arsenic, cadmium and lead.  相似文献   

20.
This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed.  相似文献   

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