LNG储罐火灾和爆炸事故树分析

对引起液化天然气储罐发生火灾、爆炸的因素进行系统分析,建立以LNG储罐火灾、爆炸为顶事件的事故树,并进行事故树分析,得到影响顶事件的各阶最小割集。利用二次计算的方法,更加精确地计算底事件的结构重要度系数,确定了影响储罐事故的主要因素,为提高LNG储罐的安全性和运行可靠性,提出相应的改进措施。     

事故树分析法在煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故安全评价中的应用

通过对煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故进行事故树分析,找出导致煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的28个基本事件。在此基础上,采用布尔代数法,得出了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生的最小割集154个、最小径集4个。通过对最小割集（最小径集）的求解,确定了各基本事件的结构重要度,从而明确事故发生的危险（安全）程度,掌握了导致瓦斯爆炸事故发生的各基本原因事件的组合关系及其重要程度;提出了防治瓦斯爆炸事故发生的措施。     

LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故后果模拟方法研究

系统分析了LPG的火灾爆炸危险性,总结了LPG储罐泄漏后可能发生的事故类型,比较了LPG储罐池火、沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸和蒸气云爆炸事故后果模拟方法,提出了预防LPG储罐区火灾爆炸事故的技术措施.     

对偶成功树分析法在涂料生产企业火灾控制中的应用

本文简要介绍了事故树分析法和对偶成功树分析法的基本原理,利用对偶成功树分析法以某涂料生产企业车间可燃液体蒸气火灾爆炸事故为例,将建立的涂料生产企业车间可燃液体蒸气火灾爆炸事故树转化为对偶成功树,求得对偶成功树的最小径集,通过对最小径集中各基本事件结构重要度的比较,确定了结构重要度最高的基本事件。结合该企业的生产实际提出了确保车间可燃液体蒸气火灾爆炸事故不发生的火灾控制措施。     

LPG罐区火灾爆炸事故危险性分析

针对重大危险源LPC罐区的火灾爆炸事故频发,首先采用数学泄漏模型分析油罐泄漏,然后应用池火、火球、喷射火火灾和UVCE及BLEVE爆炸事故的数学伤害模型分别分析几种重要的火灾和爆炸事故后果,并针对定量的事故后果分析对安全距离作出预测.     

液氨储罐火灾爆炸危害的事故树法评价

建立了液氨储罐火灾爆炸事故树,分析了导致火灾爆炸的各种因素及其逻辑关系,并对事故树基本事件结构重要度进行了分析.从改善库区通风、加强设备安全监察检查、防止点火源、提高操作人员素质的角度提出了预防火灾爆炸事故的措施.     

事故树分析方法在驾校训练风险管理中的应用

运用事故树分析驾校学员训练事故的原因,考虑多种因素对事故发生概率的影响,得出驾校学员训练事故的发生概率,并对基本事件进行了重要度分析。     

液氧储罐爆炸事故树分析

采用安全系数工程的方法,对液氧储罐爆炸进行丁事故树分析,通过求事故树最小割集,进行结构重要度分析,从而对液氧储罐爆炸的事故原因进行分析、预测,并提出了相应的预防控制措施。     

事故树在油库静电火灾爆炸分析中的应用

主要分析了引起油库静电火灾爆炸的各种原因和环节,并建立了油库静电火灾爆炸事故树。通过对事故树的定性分析,提出了预防油库静电火灾爆炸事故的对策,给出了具体的防静电措施。     

事故树定性分析法在实际运用中存在的问题

事故树分析法是一种应用广泛的系统安全分析方法,特别是其定性分析法在安全评价、事故调查分析中得到普遍运用。但是这种方法在实际运用中存在一些常见的问题,不易引起人们的重视。该文根据目前事故树分析法在实际运用中存在的一些突出问题,从定性分析,即最小割集和最小径集求取、结构重要度排序、事故树结果分析三个方面进行了探究,这些问题的存在说明了只有深刻的理解系统分析方法的内在涵义才能在实践中得到正确运用。文中在提出问题的同时给出了正确的运用步骤,力求使这种方法的运用更加规范、正确。     

聚乙烯醇罐区火灾爆炸事故树分析

通过现场的调研与事故树分析相结合的手段对某厂聚乙烯醇车间聚合罐区火灾爆炸事故的危险因素进行了识别与分析.以该罐区可能发生的火灾爆炸事故作为顶上事件,对可能引发顶上事件的21个基本事件及一个条件事件构建事故树,利用最小割集、最小径集及结构重要性计算手段进行事故风险程度分析,从而确定醋酸乙烯暴聚是聚合罐区的首要危险源,而促发醋酸乙烯暴聚的物料长时间停留、气相氧含量过高、温度控制失效、阻聚剂含量不足等四个基本事件是导致聚合罐区火灾爆炸事故的最危险因素.本文对以上聚合罐区发生火灾爆炸事故的风险因素进行详细定性分析,并在此基础上有针对性的提出了相应的安全预防控制措施.同时,该聚合罐区的事故树分析结论也可以为同类别化工单位罐区的日常运行、设计改造、维护保养等工作提供理论依据.     

Fuzzy fault tree analysis for fire and explosion of crude oil tanks

Crude oil tank fire and explosion (COTFE) is the most frequent type of accident in petroleum refineries, oil terminals or storage which often results in human fatality, environment pollution and economic loss. In this paper, with fault tree qualitative analysis technique, various potential causes of the COTFE are identified and a COTFE fault tree is constructed. Conventional fault tree quantitative analysis calculates the occurrence probability of the COTFE using exact probability data of the basic events. However, it is often very difficult to obtain corresponding precise data and information in advance due to insufficient data, changing environment or new components. Fuzzy set theory has been proven to be effective on such uncertain problems. Hence, this article investigates a hybrid approach of fuzzy set theory and fault tree analysis to quantify the COTFE fault tree in fuzzy environment and evaluate the COTFE occurrence probability. Further, importance analysis for the COTFE fault tree, including the Fussell–Vesely importance measure of basic events and the cut sets importance measure, is performed to help identifying the weak links of the crude oil tank system that will provide the most cost-effective mitigation. Also, a case study and analysis is provided to testify the proposed method.     

煤炭自然发火事故树分析及预防

为了有效地控制煤炭自然发火,减少矿井火灾的发生,依据系统工程的原理,结合煤炭自燃的条件建立了煤炭自然发火事故树,求解得出了事故树最小径集,利用最小径集得出了各基本事件的结构重要度,从而定性分别对砌碹巷道煤炭自然发火事故、采空区(报废采区)遗煤自然发火事故、采空区(生产采区)遗煤自然发火事故、报废巷道与停工停风独头巷道煤炭自然发火事故进行了分析,得出了引起煤炭自然发火的主要原因,并针对其提出了防治煤炭自然发火的预防措施。     

“三软”煤层煤与瓦斯突出事故树分析

掌握煤与瓦斯突出危险性和主要影响因素对突出防治至关重要。运用安全系统工程重要的系统分析方法——事故树分析法对"三软"煤层煤与瓦斯突出危险性进行系统分析,构建了"三软"煤层条件下煤与瓦斯突出的事故树,进行了定性分析和定量计算。结果表明,煤与瓦斯突出发生的概率为0.216 5,导致突出的可能途径有24种,预防突出的可能方案有5种,并计算出了各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度和临界重要度,确定了"三软"煤层中影响煤与瓦斯突出各因素的重要程度。     

Safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank using fault tree analysis and risk matrix analysis

The work presented in this paper used a quantitative analysis of relevant risks through the development of fault tree analysis and risk analysis methods to aid real time risk prediction and safety evaluation of leak in a storage tank. Criticality of risk elements and their attributes can be used with real time data to predict potential failures likely to occur. As an example, a risk matrix was used to rank risk of events that could lead to a leak in a storage tank and to make decisions on risks to be allowed based on past statistical data. An intelligent system that recognizes increasing level(s) and draws awareness to the possibility of additional increase before unsafe levels are attained was used to analyse and make critical decisions. After a visual depiction of relationships between hazards and controls had been actualized, dynamic risk modelling was used to quantify the effect controls can potentially have on hazards by applying historical and real-time data into a probabilistic model. The output of a dynamic risk model is near real-time quantitative predictions of risk likelihood. Results from the risk matrix analysis method mixed with RTD and FTA were analyzed, evaluated, and compared.     

LPG储罐的失效原因分析

简要介绍了LPG储罐的各种失效形式及其特征,分析了导致储罐失效的主要原因,用事故树分析方法进行整理归纳,并针对各种失效形式分别提出防治措施.     

基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的钻井井塌事故的定量分析

井塌事故在钻井过程极其常见,由于钻井液、井身结构等设计不合理,以及钻井过程的误操作均会造成井塌的发生,其后果主要是造成卡钻、卡套管等事故,严重时造成井眼毁坏。为了对井塌事故进行危险性分析,采用贝叶斯网络与故障树相结合的方法,避免传统故障树方法的局限性。首先对井塌事故的所有危险因素进行辨识建立故障树,然后将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络,建立条件概率表,运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力对井塌事故进行危险性分析。对井塌事故各基本事件概率分布的计算分析结果表明,考虑事件的多态性,综合利用故障树分析法和贝叶斯网络法能有效提高井塌事故分析的有效性,推算出井塌事故概率分布更为准确。     

故障树法和改进PSO-PNN网络的电梯故障诊断模型

针对电梯故障问题,提出一种将故障树分析法、改进的粒子群优化算法和概率神经网络相结合的方法用于电梯的故障诊断。以电梯的安全回路系统为例,用故障树法对回路进行分析,获得训练样本与故障类型;使用粒子群算法对概率神经网络的平滑因子进行优化,在优化过程中,针对粒子群算法存在易陷入局部最优的缺陷,提出对惯性权重的改进策略;采用相对误差对诊断效果做出评估,并与传统的概率神经网络和基本粒子群算法优化的概率神经网络在各种故障类型输出和最大相对误差等方面进行比较,结果表明:该模型能够有效诊断电梯故障。     

Modelling of heating furnace fire scenarios using fault tree analysis,a bayesian network,and a thermal transfer method for system reliability analysis

Energy production for oil companies requires high-performance equipment. However, after a certain period of use, this equipment could be damaged, causing numerous problems and defects, impeding production, and leading to incidents that may cause material and human losses. Therefore, it is necessary to master the performance parameters of each equipment, which are key indicators of its functionality and can indicate the possibility of reusing it after inspection and diagnosis. However, it is worth noting that the studied system is a vertical cylindrical furnace in Algeria's refinery. This paper describes a new hybrid approach, a methodology that evaluates system reliability by combining two studies. The first is based on the surety of the system's functioning through an analysis with a fault tree to identify the risks, followed by a quantitative analysis using a Bayesian method. The second study follows the thermal calculation of the equipment's performance parameters, namely: the thermal efficiency (η), heat transfer coefficient (h), and heat absorbed quantity (Q), using heat balance equations to quantify the heat absorbed quantity and identify the fluid flow regime inside the tube. The calculation considers three cases: The design case, the failure case, and the after renovation case. The originality of this work appears when the collected findings from the second study are fed into the first study's Bayesian Network (BN) to analyse the system's reliability using the calculated parameters. Then, BN is used to calculate the Probabilistic Importance Factors (PIFs) in order to identify the most impactful system components. Finally, a prediction analysis was conducted. The latter reveals that one of the furnace's major faults is the fumes accumulation inside the combustion chamber. Corrosion, overheating, coke formation inside the tubes, dumper deformation, and burner tip clogging all contribute to this fault.