A goal oriented indicator framework to support integrated assessment of new policies for agri-environmental systems

The goal oriented framework (GOF) for indicators has been developed as part of a comprehensive research project developing computerised tools for integrated assessment of the effects of new policies or technologies on agricultural systems (SEAMLESS-IF). The ambition has therefore been to create an indicator framework where the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainable development can be related to each other in a consistent way. Integrated assessment tools rely on such frameworks to capture and visualise trade-offs (antagonisms or synergies) among indicators between and within the three dimensions of sustainable development. The specific aims of this paper are to (i) present the GOF (ii) present how the GOF can be used to select indicators within the integrated assessment framework SEAMLESS-IF and (iii) discuss the advantages and limitations with the proposed approach. We show that the GOF has several advantages. Its major rewards are its relative simplicity and the possibility to link indicators to policy goals of each dimension of sustainability and thereby facilitate the comparison of the impacts of the new policy on the different dimensions. Another important feature of the GOF is its multi-scale perspective, which will enable the comparison of effects of a new policy between scales. Yet, as typical for all indicator frameworks, the GOF has also biases either instigated by the issues the included models cover or by the stakeholders’ selection of indicators. However, due to the way the GOF and its indicators are technically implemented in SEAMLESS-IF, it can easily be extended and include new indicators to increase and update its policy relevance.     

Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental policies on the sustainability of agricultural systems. A particular challenge in this context is the consistent translation of a wide range of policy questions into scenarios that a modelling framework can assess. The present work defines a methodology for scenario-development in integrated policy assessment with specific emphasis on SEAMLESS-IF. After a general overview on scenario concepts for integrated policy assessment the adopted scenario concept and its development procedure is presented. They allow building integrated scenarios capturing the range of drivers of the assessed agricultural system in a consistent way across temporal and spatial scales. Then focus is on the particular procedures to translate the policy assessment questions into scenario parameters and to implement these parameters into SEAMLESS-IF. Two examples targeted at European and regional level combining integrated assessments of policy changes and technological innovations are considered to illustrate the SEAMLESS scenario concept. We conclude that the proposed methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios effectively supports integrated assessment in SEAMLESS-IF or even in other modelling frameworks.     

Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy

In recent years, evaluating the robustness of environmental models results has become essential in order to effectively support decision makers to define suitable emission control strategies. This evaluation is performed in literature through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Therefore, the application of such methodologies to air quality Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is extremely challenging. In fact, in this case uncertainty and sensitivity analyses should be assessed not only for each single component of the system, but also for the overall IAM. In the paper, an attempt is made to extend and systematize the information available on uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, at first considering environmental models in general, and then focusing on air quality IAMs. The study aims to offer a tentative framework addressed to modelers and decision makers in the implementation of IAM and evaluation of its results. The framework has been tested on Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The results show how the uncertainty on Drivers of emissions propagates on the whole modelling chain characterizing an integrated assessment study.     

A decision framework for Integrated Assessment Modelling of air quality at regional and local scale

Decision making in the field of air quality and greenhouses gases reductions can nowadays be supported by a clear overall framework and by computer tools that integrate the most relevant aspects of the problem. This approach is particularly important at local scale since new general rules on emission abatement at European level can only marginally modify the most critical hotspots and may be very costly. This paper adapts the general Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses (DPSIR) scheme proposed by the European Environment Agency to the specific case of local air quality policies and shows how the most recent scientific developments in impact evaluation and social acceptance can be integrated. The proposed decision framework represents a general methodology to design Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) systems aimed at the implementation of effective Air Quality Plans (AQP). An extensive survey across European countries shows the current degree of adoption of these approaches.     

Applying integrated assessment methodologies to air quality plans: Two European cases

Air pollution Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) can be used for determining how emissions should be reduced to improve air quality and to protect human health in a cost-efficient way. The application of IAM is also useful to spread information to the general public and to explain the effectiveness of proposed Air Quality Plans. In this paper, the application of the RIAT+ system to determine suitable abatement measures to improve the air quality at a regional/local level is presented for two European cases: the Brussels Capital Region (Belgium) and the Porto Urban Area (Portugal). Both regions are affected with PM10 or NO₂ concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the European Union legislation. To properly assess air quality abatement measures a surrogate model was used, allowing the implementation of an efficient optimization procedure. This model is derived in both cases through a set of simulations performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. In addition, internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and external costs (due to population exposure to air pollutant concentrations) of policy options were considered. The application of this integrated assessment modelling system in scenario (Brussels case) and optimization (Porto) modes contributes to identifying some advantages and limitations of these two approaches and also provides some guidance when urban air quality has to be assessed.     

The challenge of knowledge exchange in national policy impact assessment – A case of Finnish climate policy

Impact assessment (IA) is one of the most widely applied instruments for generating policy-relevant knowledge. However, the step-wise process, logic of linear knowledge transfer and influence of IA has frequently been criticised. Current IA procedures do not adequately address complex and unpredictable policy processes, such as the preparation of climate policies. Drawing on a framework of science–policy interface problems, we analyse knowledge exchange in a national climate policy IA case and discuss the reasons for the problems. We demonstrate various problems in knowledge use and production as well as in the balance between the demand for and supply of knowledge, such as ignoring the knowledge involved in the policy process, the monopoly held by certain knowledge providers and models, insufficient scoping and framing of the IA, poor interaction with knowledge providers and users, and inadequate planning and coordination of the process. We highlight the need for adding context-sensitive and tailored knowledge exchange practices to IA processes to enhance the use of existing knowledge in climate policy.     

居住区水环境质量综合评价实例

通过实例分析居住区水环境质量综合评价指标的选取和隶属函数构成，介绍模糊综合评价计算机程序设计方法，并用Ｃ程序完成本例水环境质量的综合评价，为改善该区住区环境质量提出了参考意见。     

Method for assessing impacts on life support functions (LSF) related to the use of ‘fertile land’ in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

Degradation of soil quality is a major concern due to the scarcity of fertile land, and needs to be properly addressed in the environmental assessment of agro-forestry systems. This paper addresses the main issues arising in assessing the impacts of fertile land use on “Life Support Functions” in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). These issues include the assessment of occupation and transformation impacts, the references against which such impacts should be measured, and the concept of natural relaxation versus backup technology for recovery from the impacts. The alternative (or reference) situation is defined using the concept of consequential LCA, which facilitates clarification of the allocation issues arising due to successive land uses. This paper presents soil organic matter (SOM) as a robust indicator for soil quality; even though it does not fully consider all aspects of soil functioning, SOM has been often recognised as the best stand-alone indicator for soil quality. Impacts on biodiversity are not included in this indicator and should be assessed in parallel. Alternative data sources for practical implementation of the method are suggested in a hierarchical way, including locally specific data sets describing changes in SOM; mechanistic models for the prediction of SOM evolution; and general data sources for simplified analyses. Thanks to its flexibility in data collection the method is applicable to any agricultural or forestry LCA to fill an important gap in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) of land use.     

An occupational chemical priority list for future life cycle assessments

A chemical priority list is presented to screen and identify relevant chemicals, for which more detailed and industrial-sector specific quantitative exposure, risk and life-cycle assessments should be completed. A list of 38 solvents were ranked according to the framework of the LCA toxicity model, USEtox, and according to the framework proposed by the UNEP/SETAC working group on Indoor Exposure Assessment in LCA. An additional method, based on a risk assessment (RA) framework, was used to examine the robustness of the priority rank. Under both schemes dichloromethane, ethanol, formaldehyde, hexane and toluene all rank in the top ten positions. These chemicals are currently relevant with regard to health effects on a population level. Some of these chemicals are known as hazardous, while others, such as ethanol, have a low toxicity but were prioritized because of their extensive use and high exposure levels. This study attempts to combine the knowledge and methods of the LCA and occupational hygiene communities in assessing health impacts. It provides a consistent and transparent method for rapid comparative assessments of different chemicals and identifies the chemicals and workplaces that will require more thorough investigations.     

Impact assessment in the European Commission – a system with multiple objectives

Impact assessment (IA) is an instrument that is gradually making inroads into European Union policy making. Great ambitions are tied to the introduction of a compulsory system of IA as a way to achieve better regulation but also as a tool to improve legitimacy of government and increase unity in European politics. In order to raise the quality of the assessments, which has been questioned, there is a call for application of more evidence-based methods. As a result, there might be a window of opportunity for greater use of scientific support in impact assessment work.However, the EC's IA system has several overlapping and partly contradictory objectives – to produce estimates about possible future impacts is only one of them. The IA system should be understood as a political instrument shaped by its multiple objectives and the political context of permanent negotiations in which it is situated.The arguments put forward emanate from a close reading of EC documents concerning IA procedures and the ambitions they display paired with assessment practices as revealed in interviews with officials in the main EU institutions, trying to perform IAs and to cope with the political balancing act they are embedded in.     

SAFE—A hierarchical framework for assessing the sustainability of agricultural systems

Sustainable development and the definition of indicators to assess progress towards sustainability have become a high priority in scientific research and on policy agendas. In this paper, we propose a consistent and comprehensive framework of principles, criteria and indicators (PC&I) for sustainability assessment of agricultural systems, referred to as the Sustainability Assessment of Farming and the Environment (SAFE) framework. In addition we formulate consistent and objective approaches for indicator identification and selection. The framework is designed for three spatial levels: the parcel level, the farm level and a higher spatial level that can be the landscape, the region or the state. The SAFE framework is hierarchical as it is composed of principles, criteria, indicators and reference values in a structured way. Principles are related to the multiple functions of the agro-ecosystem, which go clearly beyond the production function alone. The multifunctional character of the agro-ecosystem encompasses the three pillars of sustainability: the environmental, economic and social pillars. Indicators and reference values are the end-products of the framework. They are the operational tools that are used for evaluating the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. The proposed analytical framework is not intended to find a common solution for sustainability in agriculture as a whole, but to serve as an assessment tool for the identification, the development and the evaluation of agricultural production systems, techniques and policies.     

Policy integration for adaptive water governance: Learning from Scotland's experience

This paper contributes to on-going attempts at bringing together two influential ideas in water governance: Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and adaptive governance. In particular, a tension remains between the call in IWRM for the use of formal institutions, such as river basin organisations, to secure public policy integration, and the assumptions in adaptive governance in favour of informal collaboration between essentially independent policy actors. To clarify this relationship, this article draws on theoretical research on public policy integration, and uses these insights in an empirical setting to identify mechanisms that can facilitate effective policy integration for adaptive water governance. The research is based on recent attempts in Scotland to implement IWRM ideas to improve flood management. Several governance mechanisms were adopted to facilitate the integration of flood, water and rural land use policies. Six Scottish policy regimes are analysed using documentary sources and interviews. Results challenge the idea that collaboration should primarily be built on either river basin organisations or informal mechanisms. We identify a mix of informal and statutory-based mechanisms which may secure political and technocratic commitment to policy integration.     

The globalization of the carbon market: Welfare and competitiveness effects of linking emissions trading schemes

In the light of the prevailing goal to keep global temperature increase below 2° and recent challenges to reach a global climate agreement in the near term, linking emissions trading schemes has emerged as a prominent complementing policy option. To this end, we explicitly assess (1) the macroeconomic welfare impacts and (2) the trade-based competitiveness effects of linking the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme in the year 2020. A stylized partial market analysis suggests that, independently of regional cost characteristics, the integration of emissions trading schemes (ETS) yields economic welfare gains for all participating regions. A computable general equilibrium analysis confirms these findings at the macroeconomic level: The economic efficiency losses from emissions regulation are diminished for both EU Member States and non-EU regions by linking ETS. However, the quantitative analysis suggests opposite trade-based incentives for linking up: while EU Member States improve their terms of trade by integrating with emerging ETS, non-EU linking candidates face competitiveness losses by linking. We conclude that, for non-EU regions, the attractiveness of linking ETS is a matter of priorities for economic welfare or international competitiveness. If these priorities are hierarchized in favor of welfare, the globalization of the carbon market could become a promising policy option complementing the efforts to reach a global climate agreement in 2015.     

气候变化对农业影响评价方法研究进展

近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,气候变化的影响评价研究越来越受到各国科学家和政府的重视,特别是对农业的影响评估研究更为重要.文章主要对观测和模拟在气候变化对农业的影响评价研究中的应用进展进行了介绍,并对该领域未来的研究方向进行了展望,认为加强研究极端天气气候事件的影响;发展农业影响评价集成模式;进一步利用区域气候模式嵌套农业影响评价模式对区域气候变化的影响进行评价,并对其影响的不确定性进行评估.     

Life cycle assessment of sunflower and rapeseed as energy crops under Chilean conditions

An option for the agriculture and energy sectors in Chile is the cultivation of energy crops, but environmental studies are first needed in the framework of a sustainable national energy policy.In this study, we used a cradle-to-farm gate Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to compare environmental impacts and energy and water demand of rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) in Chile, as potential oleaginous crops for first-generation biodiesel production. National agricultural data are used for the LCA inventory and process data of international databases are adapted to local conditions. The effect of field N₂O emissions and land use change is evaluated. The results indicate that, compared to sunflower, rapeseed production has a better environmental performance in 9 out of the 11 impact categories evaluated, and lower water consumption. The energy demand of rapeseed is 4.9 GJ/t seed, 30% less than that of sunflower. Mineral fertilizers cause the highest environmental impact in both crops. The analysis of the life cycle of fertilizers indicates that extraction of raw materials and its production are key stages. Attempts to reduce the environmental impact and energy requirement of both crops should be mainly associated with the evaluation of other types of fertilization. In addition, particularly for sunflower, low impact herbicides should be evaluated, seed yield improved and cultivation practices optimized. If the crops are produced on degraded grasslands, the greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced.     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.     

Linking analyses and environmental Kuznets curves for aggregated material flows in the EU

The relationship between economy and environmental impacts has been an essential topic in the discussion on environmental problems for a long time. From the 1990s, this relationship has gained a position in environmental policy as well. De-coupling the use of natural resources from economic growth has been set as one of the policy goals in the sixth Environmental Action Programme by the European Commission. In the scientific discussion, the concept of environmental Kuznets curve deals closely with the de-coupling or de-linking phenomenon. Aggregated material flows, on the other hand, have often been considered as a macro-level proxy of environmental degradation. Different methods or approaches have been designed for “sustainability” or “carrying capacity” evaluation as well. The objective of this article is (i) to discuss the possibilities and limitations of using environmental and economic indicators in the sustainability analysis at the macro level, (ii) to present a theoretical framework for the linking analysis including a classification of the degrees of de-linking/re-linking environmental impacts from/to economic growth, and (iii) to give an empirical example by using indicators of direct material flows as a proxy of environmental degradation and by applying the framework into the European Union and its 15 member countries. The results show that the trend in the European Union is a weak de-linking of material flows from economic growth during the years 1980–2000. In other words, material intensity of the economy has generally decreased due to increased efficiency, but the absolute amount of material use has increased, although at a lower rate of increase than economic growth. On the other hand, there is a quite large variation between different EU member countries. However, absolute decrease in the use of materials cannot be found as a continuous trend between the years 1980 and 2000 in any of the studied EU member countries.     

A dynamic conceptualization of power for sustainability research

This paper takes up the challenge of providing a conceptual power framework to be used in the context of sustainability research. First, challenges of sustainability research are discussed by focusing specifically on recent insights from Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA), and on that basis some requirements for concepts to be used in sustainability research are postulated. It is argued that two of the most important aspects of sustainability assessment research are the long-term dynamics of change and an interdisciplinary paradigm. Second, a dynamic power framework is presented that was developed in the context of research on socio-technical sustainability transitions, including the basics of this power framework as well as some empirical illustrations. Third, it is discussed how the presented power framework deals with time, change and long-term dynamics, and how this contributes to the state-of-the-art. Fourth, it is indicated how the power framework integrates interdisciplinary and ‘interparadigmaticatic’ research requirements, and how this contributes to the state-of-the art. In conclusion, the arguments are summarized and some challenges for future research are distilled.     

How the DPSIR framework can be used for structuring problems and facilitating empirical research in coastal systems

As pressures on coastal zones mount, there is a growing need for frameworks that can be used to conceptualize complex sustainability challenges and help organize research that increases understand about interacting ecological and societal processes, predicts change, and supports the management, persistence, and resilience of coastal systems. The Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework is one such approach that has been adopted in some coastal zones around the world. Although the application of the DPSIR framework has considerable potential to bridge the gap between scientific disciplines and link science to coastal policy and management, current applications of DPSIR in coastal environments have been limited and new innovations in the application of the DPSIR model are needed. We conducted a structured review of literature on the DPSIR framework as applied to the function, process and components of complex coastal systems. Our specific focus was on how the DPSIR framework has been used as a tool to organize sophisticated empirical scientific research, support transdisciplinary knowledge at a level appropriate for building understanding about coastal systems, and how adopting a DPSIR approach can help stakeholders to articulate and structure challenges in coastal systems and use the framework to support policy and management outcomes. The review revealed that DPSIR models of coastal systems have been largely used to support and develop conceptual understanding of coastal social–ecological systems and to identify drivers and pressures in the coastal realm. A limited number of studies have used DPSIR as a starting point for semi-quantitative or quantitative analyses, although our review highlights the continued need for, and potential of, transformative quantitative analyses and transdisciplinary applications of the DPSIR framework. The DPSIR models we reviewed were predominantly single sector, encompassing ecological or biophysical factors or focusing primarily on socio-cultural dimensions rather than full integration of both types of information. Only in eight of 24 shortlisted articles did researchers actively engage decision-makers or citizens in their research: given the potential opportunity for using DPSIR as a tool to successfully engage policy-makers and stakeholders, it appears that the DPSIR framework has been under-utilized in this regard.     

WTO and Integrated Product Policy (IPP): trade law implications for the use of product policy instruments to reduce the risk of exposure and harm from hazardous substances in the life cycle of personal computers

This paper analyses the implications of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) trade rules for the use of product policy instruments in a potential Integrated Product Policy (IPP) approach to reducing the life cycle impacts of products. To demonstrate these implications, an example of the policy instruments for reducing the risk of exposure and harm from hazardous substances in the life cycle of personal computers (PCs) is used. The product policy instruments examined include regulatory instruments, economic instruments, compulsory information instruments, voluntary information instruments and voluntary agreements. It is found that the WTO rules do limit the ability of governments to use trade-restrictive, mandatory measures to address both the risks associated with uncertainty and limited knowledge and the upstream life cycle phases of raw material extraction and production processes of imported products. Governments have more leeway in the use of economic and voluntary instruments.