Potential biases in site and species selection for ecological monitoring

A number of the contributions to this workshop (particularly in the session on biodiversity and population monitoring) have stressed the importance of choosing appropriate species and locations for ecological monitoring. This is of pragmatic necessity: it is impossible to monitor all species at all locations. The purpose of this note is to caution against some possible pitfalls in the selection of species and sites. These pitfalls are a result of the statistical concept of regression.     

The importance of site selection in monitoring the macroinvertebrate communities of the Yarra River,Victoria

The condition of the macroinvertebrate fauna of the Yarra River deteriorates progressively downstream from the virtually pristine headwater areas, through cleared rural areas in the mid-Yarra, to urban areas in the lower sections of the Yarra. It was found during a four year study, that the physico-chemical parameters affecting the fauna varied substantially in relation to the different physical characteristics of each site. In general, it is suggested that nutrients and the riparian vegetation had greatest impact on the riffle communities, and turbidities had greatest impact on the pool communities. The physical characteristics of each site also influenced the type and degree of response in the fauna to fluctuations in flow. Full consideration should therefore be given to the type of stream habitat sampled when attempting to determine which water quality parameters have significant long-term effects on the condition of the fauna.     

Coupling GIS and mulitvariate approaches to reference site selection for wadeable stream monitoring

Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to identify potential reference sites for wadeable stream monitoring, and multivariate analyses were applied to test whether invertebrate communities reflected a priori spatial and stream type classifications. We identified potential reference sites in segments with unmodified vegetation cover adjacent to the stream and in >85% of the upstream catchment. We then used various landcover, amenity and environmental impact databases to eliminate sites that had potential anthropogenic influences upstream and that fell into a range of access classes. Each site identified by this process was coded by four dominant stream classes and seven zones, and 119 candidate sites were randomly selected for follow-up assessment. This process yielded 16 sites conforming to reference site criteria using a conditional-probabilistic design, and these were augmented by an additional 14 existing or special interest reference sites. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) analysis of percent abundance invertebrate data indicated significant differences in community composition among some of the zones and stream classes identified a priori providing qualified support for this framework in reference site selection. NMS analysis of a range standardised condition and diversity metrics derived from the invertebrate data indicated a core set of 26 closely related sites, and four outliers that were considered atypical of reference site conditions and subsequently dropped from the network. Use of GIS linked to stream typology, available spatial databases and aerial photography greatly enhanced the objectivity and efficiency of reference site selection. The multi-metric ordination approach reduced variability among stream types and bias associated with non-random site selection, and provided an effective way to identify representative reference sites.     

Representational success: A new paradigm for achieving species protection by reserve site selection

Models for designing habitat reserve networks have focused on minimizing the number of sites necessary to cover each species one or more times. A solution to this problem is usually one from among a large number of alternative optimal configurations of sites. This paper develops an iterative method for building reserve networks that produces an optimal solution to the species set covering problem (SSCP) and also maximizes the number of species covered two or more times, three or more times, and so on, conditional on the solution to the previous iteration. We refer to this as representational success. Thus, a pareto optimal species set covering is achieved that is preferable to an arbitrary optimal solution to the SSCP.     

Evaluation of a Gaussian-modified dispersion model for atmospheric release from the Marcoule nuclear site

This paper presents a mathematical model of local pollutant dispersion designed to compute the concentration field above and around the Marcoule nuclear site. The model is based on integrating the classical turbulent diffusion equation, corrected (prior to integration) by experimental wind tunnel data obtained for a scaled-down model of the site. The computed results are compared with full-scale experimental observations at Marcoule in the case of neutral atmosphere. A comparison with the standard Gaussian model is also made. Finally, a critical analysis of the model is presented. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Land suitability assessment for wind power plant site selection using ANP-DEMATEL in a GIS environment: case study of Ardabil province,Iran

Wind energy is a renewable energy resource that has increased in usage in most countries. Site selection for the establishment of large wind turbines, called wind farms, like any other engineering project, requires basic information and careful planning. This study assessed the possibility of establishing wind farms in Ardabil province in northwestern Iran by using a combination of analytic network process (ANP) and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methods in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. DEMATEL was used to determine the criteria relationships. The weights of the criteria were determined using ANP and the overlaying process was done on GIS. Using 13 information layers in three main criteria including environmental, technical and economical, the land suitability map was produced and reclassified into 5 equally scored divisions from least suitable to most suitable areas. The results showed that about 6.68 % of the area of Ardabil province is most suitable for establishment of wind turbines. Sensitivity analysis shows that significant portions of these most suitable zones coincide with suitable divisions of the input layers. The efficiency and accuracy of the hybrid model (ANP-DEMATEL) was evaluated and the results were compared to the ANP model. The sensitivity analysis, map classification, and factor weights for the two methods showed satisfactory results for the ANP-DEMATEL model in wind power plant site selection.     

A new model for climate system analysis: Outline of the model and application to palaeoclimate simulations

We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.     

Assessment of phenol infiltration resilience in soil media by HYDRUS-1D transport model for a waste discharge site

The movement of contaminants through soil imparts a variety of geo-environmental problem inclusive of lithospheric pollution. Near-surface aquifers are often vulnerable to contamination from surface source if overlying soil possesses poor resilience or contaminant attenuation capacity. The prediction of contaminant transport through soil is urged to protect groundwater from sources of pollutants. Using field simulation through column experiments and mathematical modeling like HYDRUS-1D, assessment of soil resilience and movement of contaminants through the subsurface to reach aquifers can be predicted. An outfall site of effluents of a coke oven plant comprising of alarming concentration of phenol (4–12.2 mg/L) have been considered for studying groundwater condition and quality, in situ soil characterization, and effluent characterization. Hydrogeological feature suggests the presence of near-surface aquifers at the effluent discharge site. Analysis of groundwater of nearby locality reveals the phenol concentration (0.11–0.75 mg/L) exceeded the prescribed limit of WHO specification (0.002 mg/L). The in situ soil, used in column experiment, possess higher saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _S ?=?5.25?×?10^?4 cm/s). The soil containing 47 % silt, 11 % clay, and 1.54 % organic carbon content was found to be a poor absorber of phenol (24 mg/kg). The linear phenol adsorption isotherm model showed the best fit (R ²?=?0.977, RMSE?=?1.057) to the test results. Column experiments revealed that the phenol removal percent and the length of the mass transfer zone increased with increasing bed heights. The overall phenol adsorption efficiency was found to be 42–49 %. Breakthrough curves (BTCs) predicted by HYDRUS-1D model appears to be close fitting with the BTCs derived from the column experiments. The phenol BTC predicted by the HYDRUS-1D model for 1.2 m depth subsurface soil, i.e., up to the depth of groundwater in the study area, showed that the exhaustion point was reached within 12 days of elapsed time. This clearly demonstrated poor attenuation capacity of the soil to retard migration of phenol to the groundwater from the surface outfall site. Suitable liner, based on these data, may be designed to inhibit subsurface transport of phenol and thereby to protect precious groundwater from contamination.     

Joint application of an empirical and mechanistic model for regional lake acidification

The empirical direct distribution model for lake acidification is calibrated for use in an integrated assessment model which predicts the regional impact of an acid deposition control strategy. The calibration is based on the mechanistic Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC). The models are applied jointly to a set of 33 statistically-selected lakes in the Adirondack region of New York. Calibration of the direct distribution model is based on a step-function application of acid deposition to MAGIC. Comparative evaluations of the resulting model predictions are made using historic deposition estimates and two alternative future deposition scenarios. The predictions of the direct distribution model match well the shapes and patterns of change of the regional distributions of ANC and pH predicted by MAGIC, the short- and medium-term dynamics of these changes, and the effect of including organic acids. However, small, long-term decreases in the fraction of incoming acid deposition neutralized by lakes and their watersheds predicted by MAGIC are not reproduced.     

Determination of pollution trends in an abandoned mining site by application of a multivariate statistical analysis to heavy metals fractionation using SM&T-SES

The mobility, availability and persistence of Heavy Metals (HMs), As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn, in contaminated soils of a former abandoned mining area were evaluated by means of a sequential extraction scheme (SES) and applying a multivariate statistical analysis to the obtained data. Chemical partitioning of HMs in each sample was determined in four fractions (acid-soluble, reducible, oxidable and residual) following the Standard Measurements and Testing (SM&T) SES, formerly BCR-SES. Statistical evaluation of results by pattern recognition techniques allowed identification of groups of samples with similar characteristics and observations of correlations between variables, determining the pollution trends and distribution of HMs within the studied area. Typical metal-fraction association and metal availability characteristics of heavy metals have been depicted. The obtained results indicate an urgent need to attenuate the hazard in that area posed by high concentrations of toxic metals, which exceed the limits specified by different European legislations on soil reclamation.     

Establishment of a structural equation model for ground-level ozone: a case study at an urban roadside site

This study established a cause–effect relationship between ground-level ozone and latent variables employing partial least-squares analysis at an urban roadside site in four distinct seasons. Two multivariate analytic methods, factor analysis, and cluster analysis were adopted to cite and identify suitable latent variables from 14 observed variables (i.e., meteorological factors, wind and primary air pollutants) in 2008–2010. Analytical results showed that the first six components explained 80.3 % of the variance, and eigenvalues of the first four components were greater than 1. The effectiveness of this model was empirically confirmed with three indicators. Except for surface pressure, factor loadings of observed variables were 0.303–0.910 and reached statistical significance at the 5 % level. Composite reliabilities for latent variables were 0.672–0.812 and average variances were 0.404–0.547, except for latent variable “primary” in spring; thus, discriminant validity and convergent validity were marginally accepted. The developed model is suitable for the assessment of urban roadside surface ozone, considering interactions among meteorological factors, wind factors, and primary air pollutants in each season.     

Limitations of the CLEA model when assessing human health risks from dioxins and furans in soil at an allotments site in Rochdale, NW England

Many allotments in the UK today are situated on urban brownfield areas which creates a potential human health risk from soil borne contamination. This paper looks specifically at the risks to allotment users at a site in Rochdale, UK, from polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzo-furans (PCDD and PCDF). A contaminated land investigation was undertaken involving the collection and analysis of 24 soil samples from the top 0.0-0.3 m of the soil profile. Homogenised egg samples were also collected and analysed from plots where poultry were kept. The concentration of PCDD and PCDF in soil at the site varied from 0.69 to 13.62 μg kg(-1); two plots out of a total of eight exceeded the soil guideline value (SGV) of 8 μg kg(-1), however all plots fell below the site specific assessment criteria (SSAC) of 15.9 μg kg(-1). Human health risks were assessed using the Environment Agency's contaminated land exposure assessment (CLEA) model. The assessment using CLEA alone did not provide enough evidence to indicate significant possibility of significant harm (SPOSH) across the entire allotment site. However, when the likely exposure from the soil was combined with potential exposure from consumption of site laid eggs, the results indicated that the potential risks could constitute SPOSH. This paper gives evidence to support the bioconcentration of PCDD and PCDF in eggs and highlights the importance of considering pollutant linkages outside the generic CLEA model.     

Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model

Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake’s hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R ², MAE, RMSE, E _f). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56 % of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research.     

浅谈企业环保指标考核管理

运用全面质量管理的基本原理和方法，将企业环境保护总的奋斗目标转化为若干具有可操作性的考核指标，通过ＰＤＣＡ循环，实施环保指标考核管理，对环保指标考核管理的基本模式，实施条件，实施方法，考核结果的分析处理等问题进行了阐述，并用实例说明了该管理方式的可行性。     

Examination of reactive phosphate fluxes in an eutrophicated coastal area

Reactive phosphate (RP) fluxes over sediment in an eutrophic bay were obtained under different conditions. The results were assessed together with water column, sediment solid, and liquid-phase parameters. The RP fluxes ranged from 0 to 1,300 μgatP × m^-2d^-1 day depending on the sediment site and other variables. At stations with relatively high net RP fluxes, the clay fraction was >3% and disproportionate with salinity, which explained why the RP effluxes decreased by inhibition of the organic coating on particulate matter with increased SO₄ ⁻² ions and good competition of RP anions with SO₄ ⁻². The RP flux in Fe/RP ratios >2 in surface water decreased to approach a minimum asymptotically, which was thus defined with a hyperbolic curve to determine the maximum rate of the RP flux (J_RP). The [RP_porewater]_initial/[RP_ambient] _initial ratios were suggested to govern the net RP flux regionally, so the critical value where the RP flux turns positive could indicate eutrophication with Chl-a values <500 μg/g. So, this study investigated the phosphate fluxes between sediment and water column and determined the factors influencing the RP fluxes in the inner bay of Izmir.     

Connectivity in priority area selection for conservation

The spatial relations of sites within networks of priority areas for conservation is critical to the long-term maintenance of key genetic, population and ecosystem processes. However, these relations have received relatively little attention in the development of mathematical methods for objectively identifying such networks. Here we present a novel heuristic for incorporating connectivity explicitly as part of the model constraints, provide an integer linear programming formulation for the same problem, describe an integer cutting procedure which defines a sequence of non-decreasing lower bounds on the optimal solution and report the results of some computational experiments using these algorithms.     

Regulation of pesticide discharge into surface and groundwater under uncertainty: A model for environmental risk‐profitability tradeoffs and policy selection

The presence of contaminants in environmental media as well as the desire to maintain a high level of economic activity has led to an important and difficult decision‐making problem for both public policy decision makers and the general public. In one sense, all of the interested parties are likely to be concerned about the potential health risks posed by the presence of contaminants in environmental media and the need to design/implement policies for their mitigation and/or removal. At the same time, however, there also appear to be concerns about the cost of these policies. These costs could be measured in terms of the potential losses in economic activity that are likely to occur when a policy is adopted. The policy can be selected from a range of alternatives, with the choice being driven in part by the stakeholders represented in the policy decision problem. In this case, two general goals might be considered: minimizing environmental risk and minimizing the economic impact of the policy considered. These two objectives are likely to be viewed as conflicting goals, and the nature of the tradeoffs between them must be taken into account in the policy selection process. This paper presents the development of a zero–one weighted goal programming model that can be used to select a preferred policy that minimizes surface and groundwater contamination as well as the economic costs of environmental policy selection. A safety rule model is developed first and then extended to the zero–one weighted goal programming formulation. The stochastic aspects of these structures are emphasized throughout. The paper also addresses a number of issues related to implementation of the model.     

A new assessment method for urbanization environmental impact: urban environment entropy model and its application

The thermodynamic law is one of the most widely used scientific principles. The comparability between the environmental impact of urbanization and the thermodynamic entropy was systematically analyzed. Consequently, the concept "Urban Environment Entropy" was brought forward and the "Urban Environment Entropy" model was established for urbanization environmental impact assessment in this study. The model was then utilized in a case study for the assessment of river water quality in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. The results indicated that the assessing results of the model are consistent to that of the equalized synthetic pollution index method. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Urban Environment Entropy model has high reliability and can be applied widely in urbanization environmental assessment research using many different environmental parameters.     

析因试验设计在环境污染物联合毒性研究中的应用

结合当前化学污染物联合毒性评价方法及析因试验应用现状,从试验设汁方法及统计学角度,论证析因试验在研究环境化学污染物联合毒性,特别是在2种化合物联合毒性研究中应用的优势及其可行性。     

Examination of honeys and flowers as soil element indicators

Detection of soil element deficiencies is time consuming, requiring a major commitment for field work and analysis. Bees concentrate some elements in their honey which could allow soil element concentrations to be predicted without having to take large numbers of soil samples. We measured 14 element concentrations in soil, sunflower, acacia flower and honey samples from two different regions of Hungary. Across sites, the elements with significant correlation coefficients between honey and soil concentrations, in descending order of probability, were Cu > Ba >Sr = Ni > Zn > Mn = Pb >As. Bioconcentration from soil to honey was similar for areas with acacia and sunflower flowers. In the macroelements, it was the greatest for K, S and P and least for Mg and Na, and in the microelements, greatest for B, then Zn, then Cu, then As, Mo and Sr and least for Fe, Ba, Mn and Pb. It is concluded that in acacia and sunflower-growing regions, honey can give an accurate estimate of soil element concentrations for Cu and Ba and provides relevant information for Sr, Ni, Zn, Mn, Pb and As.