Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: an assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast,India through remote sensing and GIS

The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to be about 18 to 59 cm by the 2100 (IPCC 2007), which necessitates identification and protection of vulnerable sections of coasts. Assessment of vulnerability level of Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example is demonstrated in this study using five physical variables, namely coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean spring tide range, and significant wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was prepared by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the five variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into low-, moderate-, high-, and very high risk categories. About 43% of the 1,030-km-long AP coast is under very high-risk, followed by another 35% under high-risk if the sea level rises by ~0.6 m displacing more than 1.29 million people living within 2.0 m elevation in 282 villages in the region.     

Predicting the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Caribbean Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat

Abstract:  The projected rise in sea level is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal zones in the Caribbean, which are already under pressure from a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes. One of the major effects will be a loss of beach habitat, which provides nesting sites for endangered sea turtles. To assess the potential impacts of sea-level rise on sea turtle nesting habitat, we used beach profile measurements of turtle nesting beaches on Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles, to develop elevation models of individual beaches in a geographic information system. These models were then used to quantify areas of beach vulnerable to three different scenarios of a rise in sea level. Physical characteristics of the beaches were also recorded and related to beach vulnerability, flooding, and nesting frequency. Beaches varied in physical characteristics and therefore in their vulnerability to flooding. Up to 32% of the total current beach area could be lost with a 0.5-m rise in sea level, with lower, narrower beaches being the most vulnerable. Vulnerability varied with land use adjacent to the beach. These predictions about loss of nesting habitat have important implications for turtle populations in the region.     

Assessing vulnerability to sea-level rise using a coastal sensitivity index: a case study from southeast Australia

Many of the world’s coasts appear vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. This paper assesses the application of a coastal sensitivity index (CSI) to the Illawarra coast, a relatively well-studied shoreline in southeast Australia. Nine variables, namely (a) rock type, (b) coastal slope (c) geomorphology (d) barrier type (e) shoreline exposure (f) shoreline change (g) relative sea-level rise (h) mean wave height and (j) mean tide range, were adopted in calculation of the CSI (the square root of the product of the ranked variables divided by the number of variables). Two new variables, shoreline exposure and barrier type, were trialled in this analysis and the extent to which these increased the discriminatory power of the index was assessed. Four iterations of the CSI were undertaken using different combinations of ranked variables for each of 105 cells in a grid template, and the index values derived were displayed based on quartiles, indicating sections of coast with very high, high, moderate and low sensitivity. Increasing the number of variables increased the discriminatory power of the index, but the broad pattern and the rank order were very similar for each of the iterations. Rocky and cliffed sections of coast are least sensitive whereas sandy beaches backed by low plains or dunes record the highest sensitivity. It is difficult to determine shoreline change on this coast, because individual storms result in substantial erosion of beaches, but there are prolonged subsequent periods of accretion and foredune rebuilding. Consequently this variable is not a good indicator of shoreline sensitivity and the index is unlikely to provide a clear basis for forecasting future recession of beaches. The results of this study provide a framework for coastal managers and planners to prioritize efforts to enhance the resilience or consider adaptation measures in the coastal zone within a study region. Sensitivity of the coast if considered in conjunction with other social factors may be an input into broader assessments of the overall vulnerability of coasts and their communities.     

Geomorphology as an indicator of the biophysical vulnerability of estuaries to coastal and flood hazards in a changing climate

Climate change is increasing the need to characterise the vulnerability of coastal landscapes to coastal and flood hazards that result in erosion and inundation. Indices, such as the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI), have emerged as useful tools with which coastal managers can prioritise areas for further detailed assessment of vulnerability, risk, resilience and adaptation options. Approaches, such as the use of an index, efficiently characterise the vulnerability of linear, one-dimensional coastal features such as coastlines; however, they do not capture variability in coastal processes affecting more complex, non-linear features, such as estuaries, or interactive effects of coastal processes between linear (e.g. coastlines) and non-linear (e.g. estuaries) landforms. We present an approach that uses geomorphology to indicate biophysical vulnerability of estuaries to coastal and flood hazards. The approach is applied to the South Coast of NSW; a wave-dominated coastline of approximately 400 km length that contains more than 100 estuaries. We demonstrate the simplicity of the approach and its utility in identifying areas requiring higher resolution assessments. Although this approach does not include socio-economic factors, we demonstrate the capacity to incorporate socio-economic components of vulnerability using regional land use mapping. We infer that the most vulnerable estuaries are characterised by large catchment areas, broad estuarine valleys, mature stages of infill, or entrances oriented towards the prevailing wave direction. The area below 15 m elevation was identified as a robust indicator of the total area of vulnerability within a catchment. This approach can be applied to one-dimensional and more complex two-dimensional landscapes, such as estuaries; integrates varying sea-level rise projections; and incorporates a wider range of hazards that operate in the coastal zone.     

GIS-based risk assessment for the Nile Delta coastal zone under different sea level rise scenarios case study: Kafr EL Sheikh Governorate, Egypt

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR.     

Awareness of sea-level response under climate change on the coast of Ghana

In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not based merely on the need for coastal protection due to physical coastal erosion. There is also the need to determine the level of awareness of sea-level rise and responses in coastal communities to improve adaptation planning. This study assesses the impact of future erosion on the coastal land cover of Ghana. This assessment estimates approximately 2.66 km², 2.77 km², and 3.24 km² of coastal settlements, 2.10 km², 2.20 km² and 2.58 km² of lagoons, 1.39 km², 1.46 km² and 1.71 km² of wetlands to be at risk of inundation by the year 2050 based on coastal erosion estimates for the 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study also assesses the level of awareness of respondents to SLR on the coast of Ghana and explores the availability and level of integration of scientific knowledge of SLR into coastal adaptation strategies in Ghana. Assessment of the awareness of SLR responses to the changing climate in Ghana is made through semi-structured interviews at national, municipal/district and coastal community scales. Although settlements may be inundated based on the coastal erosion estimates, coastal dwellers interviewed cherish their proximity to the sea and are determined to maintain their occupancy close to the sea as spatial location influences their source of livelihood (fishing). Respondents lack knowledge/understanding of SLR, as the majority of household interviewees attributed the rise or fall in sea level to God. Respondents from Ngiresia alleged that the ongoing coastal sea defence project in their community has led to increased malaria cases.     

The smartline approach to coastal vulnerability and social risk assessment applied to a segment of the east coast of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

A growing awareness of increasing trends in coastal erosion and flooding due to climate change is triggering a demand for the rapid assessment of the potential responses of the coastlines around the world, principally in locations where human occupation is especially endangered. Investigations of present and future physical vulnerability and associated social risk have, therefore, become crucial for coastal management. In order to provide a quick and simple methodology for the identification of vulnerable coastal segments, Sharples (2006) has proposed a mapping methodology, called the smartline approach, which consists of representing, by means of simple lines, a geomorphic classification of the hinterland, backshore and beaches. The aim of this paper is to apply the smartline approach to coastal vulnerability assessment with inclusion of social data. The results show that this methodology is appropriate for the indication of coastal segments with varying degrees of vulnerability to erosion and flooding and for the appraisal of the resulting social risk.     

Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management

This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach.     

Changing morphology of Ghana’s Accra coast

Coastal features in Ghana's Accra coast reflect both past and present processes that have been undergoing changes. These changes are influenced by a range of morphogenic factors such as geology and climatic conditions. These regimes have shaped the coastal geomorphic features through weathering processes that decompose and disintegrate the coastal rock. Sea level rise due to climate change is expected to increase coastal erosion and thus result in rapid changes in shoreline positions. Historic rate of sea level rise in Accra coast is about 2 mm/yr (Ibe & Quelennec, 1989) which is predicted to reach approximately 6 mm/yr in the next century since it conforms to the global change (Armah et al., 2005). This will result in flooding of vulnerable areas and enable waves to break closer inland. The effectiveness of the erosion process is aided considerably by the type of geology. Accra coastal zone has three types of rock in three identified geomorphic regions. They include unconsolidated and poorly consolidated rock along the western region, the Accraian series occupying the central region and the Dahomeyan series in the eastern region. The geology has thus influenced the extent to which the coastal features have changed and the type of cliff that is formed as a result of erosion within the regions. Generally, soft rock coastal features decay more rapidly than those of hard rock and tend to act as sediment sources. Human activities such as dam construction over the Densu River, engineering interventions to check the spread of erosion and sand mining has created sediment deficit which has exacerbated coastal erosion in Accra. Anthropogenic factors are estimated to account for 70-90% of coastal erosion problems in Accra.     

GIS assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change and coastal adaption planning in Vietnam

Vietnam’s coastal zone provides a diverse range of natural resources and favourable conditions for social and economic development. However, its coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable, due to several natural coastal hazards, over-exploitation and other human activities. In spite of diverse interventions, Vietnam’s coastal zone continues to experience significant damage from floods, erosion and typhoons. These hazards are being intensified by climate change and associated rising sea levels. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of Vietnam’s coast to climate change and discusses possible adaptation policies and plan to reduce the impacts. GIS analysis was used for the assessment of coastal vulnerability. Related literature was reviewed to develop detailed understanding of coastal adaptation to climate change. Adaptation policies and plans were appraised to identify potential coastal adaptation policies and plans that could be adapted by Vietnam. It was identified that vulnerability of the coastal zone of Vietnam could not be attributed only to climatic factors, but also to the physical condition of the coastline. Much of Vietnam’s coastline, particularly, areas around the Red River delta and the Mekong River have elevations below 1 m. These coastlines are largely developed and serve as economic centres of the country, which makes the coast more vulnerable to climate change and the rising sea level. The paper concluded that a non-structural approach (coastal buffer zones, building houses on stilts, storm warning systems, growing of flood-resistant crops and elevated storm shelters with medicine and food storage) could be used by Vietnam to adapt her low-lying coastline around the two deltas to climate change as this strategy enables vulnerable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat. However, for these policies to be successful, it should be planned, implemented well in advance, monitored and evaluated over time.     

The impact of sea-level rise along the Polish Baltic coast

A DTM (Digital Terrain Model) map and the analytical powers of GIS (Geographical Information System) were used in deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of inundation of a coastal area. These methods were applied to evaluate the effects of a rise in sea-level on the coastal zone of the Puck Lagoon (Poland) over a period of 100 years. The analysis evaluated the following aspects: the threat to man-made objects such as buildings and roads; changes in the impact of the sea on the coastal environment manifested as the frequency of flooding of grasslands and marshland in the coastal depression, and the formation of a dune embankment. The analysis covered a ca. 5 km stretch of low-lying coastline, in which there are two rapidly growing villages and a nature reserve. The study showed that a sealevel rise of 40 cm would increase the frequency of flooding in the area and would probably cause the dune ridge vegetation to deteriorate.     

The potential impacts of sea level rise along the coastal zone of Kanyakumari District in Tamilnadu,India

Climate change associated with sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major environmental concerns of today. This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone of Kanyakumari District in Tamilnadu, India. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combined with overlay techniques in GIS are used in determining the inundation zones along the coastal region. The analysis evaluated the impact on coastal fishing villages, landuse, tourist spots and sensitive areas under threat. The vulnerability of the coastal areas in Kanyakumari to inundation was quantified, based on the projected sea level rise scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m. Our findings reveal that approximately 13 km² of the land area of Kanyakumari would be permanently inundated due to SLR. This would result in loss of land, alteration of the coastal zone and affects coastal ecosystem. From the study, the mitigation measures (engineering measures) and Coastal Zone Management practices that can be taken to protect human life and property from sea level rise are suggested.     

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.     

Erosion risk levels at the NW Portuguese coast: the Douro mouth—Cape Mondego stretch

The entire northwestern coast of Portugal is undergoing severe erosion and there are several areas at high risk of erosion. Commonly considered as a problem—because it jeopardizes human development along the coast—erosion is indeed a natural process of sediment redistribution. This paper presents a brief analysis of erosion driving forces and the subsequent state of vulnerability that coastal segments between the mouth of the River Douro and Cape Mondego are facing. The paper also discusses erosion risk levels, low or high, and the subsequent questions whether there are populations, economical assets or natural habitats at risk and/or areas prone to coastal flooding. Main challenges and future trends along the study area are identified in the light of understanding the underlying causes of conflicts and what realistically can be achieved given the morphodynamics and hydrodynamic processes, human development established along this coastal segment and the existing policies.     

Possible impact of sea-level rise on some habitat types at the Baltic coast of Denmark

According to estimates from the Danish Meteorological Institute global warming until 2080 may cause a relative sea-level rise in Danish waters of 33–46 cm. In the present paper the possible impact of a sea-level rise of this magnitude on coastal habitat types is discussed for three case studies, based on previous investigations of vegetation, topography and soil of localities at the Baltic coast of Denmark. The case studies include the following types of localities and habitats: (1) an off-shore barrier complex: sandy beach, sand dune, geolittoral, brackish, low-tidal meadow, reed bed; (2) a protected bay: geolittoral, brackish meadow, coastal grassland; (3) a dune area: mobile and fixed dune communities, and adjoining sea wall: coastal grassland. In the geolittoral meadow and coastal grassland habitats the sea-level rise is expected to cause a horizontal displacement of vegetation zones and a reduction in area, depending on accretion rate (sedimentation, peat formation), local topography and inland land-use. In the beach and sand dune habitats the sea-level rise is expected to cause a change in groundwater level, influencing slack vegetation, and a change in the erosion/accretion pattern, resulting in landward rebuilding of the mobile dune as well as in a more or less diffuse inland sand drift, causing destabilization of fixed dune vegetation.     

意大利东北部滨海湿地演变及其影响因素监测分析

意大利东北部海岸分布着独特的滨海湿地景观,在地中海区域具有极其重要的生态价值.该研究主要利用遥感影像监测1984—2016年滨海湿地演变,覆盖该区域所有的国际重要湿地保护区,并在此基础上定量分析滨海湿地演变的影响因素,深化对滨海湿地演变规律的认识,为今后制定与实施滨海湿地保护政策提供科学依据.研究结果显示,(1)滨海湿...     

Assessment of shoreline changes over the Northern Tamil Nadu Coast,South India using WebGIS techniques

Coastal zone is often vulnerable to natural hazards such as cyclones, storm surges, tsunamis, erosion, accretion, and coastal flooding; and man-made hazards like ports, jetties, seawalls, breakwaters, and groins. These disasters are frequently affecting the shorelines, beaches, and headlands that lead to loss of human life, properties, and natural ecosystems. To prevent further loss in the coastal zone and to conserve the existing natural resources, it is important to map and monitor vulnerable shorelines at frequent time intervals. The current study, conducted over the Northern TN (Tamil Nadu) coast of India, is highly dynamic due to its nature of coast and shoreline changes. The temporal remote sensing data and Survey of India (SOI) topographic maps over the period of 40 years (i.e., 1976–2016) were used to capture shorelines and then the erosion and accretion from the shorelines were assessed by performing the overlay analysis. These geospatial datasets of shorelines were incorporated into WebGIS platform, which was developed and demonstrated using open source software. This latest WebGIS technology allows users to store a large volume of geospatial datasets in the server and access through internet with a web browser that lead to manipulation, visualization, interaction, and dissemination. The results revealed that there were 61 layers, which include district-wise shorelines, erosion, and accretion for Tiruvallur, Chennai, and Kanchipuram. These geospatial datasets in WebGIS showed that the dynamism on the morphological structure of the shorelines, over the Northern TN lost 1,925 ha and gained 1,578 ha due to erosion and accretion, respectively. It is reported that in this study spatial reduction in the coastline may be attributed to natural and anthropogenic activities. However, this research will be useful for various stakeholders, including coastal management authorities to formulate policies and to regulate the coastal development activities.     

The spatial nexus between population growth and land degradation in a dry Mediterranean region: a rapidly changing pattern?

A better understanding of the spatial linkage between the distribution of land vulnerable to degradation and long-term population growth may contribute to sustainable land management of dry regions. Such a nexus has received increasing attention among politicians and local stakeholders, as its complex outcomes depend on mutual interactions between socioeconomic and biophysical factors. This is particularly true in southern Europe, where important processes of land degradation (LD) have been observed in recent years. This paper analyses population growth (1871–2007) in southern Italy and questions its relationship with the level of land vulnerable to degradation. Results indicate that vulnerable lands were more likely associated with areas where population growth has determined environmental pressures on coastal areas and the neighbouring lowlands during 1950–1980. This pattern consolidated the socioeconomic polarisation between core and peripheral areas. Since the 1980s, however, southern Italy has experienced a phase of polycentric development, possibly determining a ‘decoupling’ between population density and land vulnerability to degradation. Population increased in moderately vulnerable areas but decreased in highly vulnerable areas. The policy implications of these results are discussed.     

Flood-risk mapping for storm surge and tsunami at Cocos Bay (Manzanilla), Trinidad

Cocos Bay is a barrier beach under threat of marine erosion from the high energy environment of the Atlantic Ocean. This barrier beach borders the Ramsar listed Nariva Swamp, and helps maintain its delicate wetland ecosystem, however, ongoing coastal erosion at this beach threatens the longevity of this freshwater wetland. Due to the geographical location of Cocos Bay being exposed to Atlantic generated storm events and the low relief of the study area, there is a potential threat of storm surges breaching the barrier beach. Owing to the geological setting of the region (located in an active seismic province with earthquakes, volcanicity and landslides), there also exists the threat of tsunamis. This paper is a GIS simulation of the area extent of inundation and the affected infrastructure from such events. It utilizes a DEM and land-use to quantifying inundation areas, and the extent of vulnerability of various elements. The low relief of the barrier beach renders the area extremely vulnerable from events that trigger sea level increases. Simulations revealed that as little as a 1 m storm surge has the potential to disrupt the Nariva Swamp and threaten coastal infrastructure while higher storm surges and tsunamis have the potential to decimate the entire area. The flood-risk model generated indicates a very high vulnerability to storm surges, along the entire length of the coastline. These results have implications for future development and sustainable management of this ecologically sensitive area.