THE RED RIVER FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEM AND RECENT FLOOD EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The 1950 flood disaster in the Red River Valley, Manitoba, and particularly in Winnipeg made all levels of government aware of the need for control measures. The principal elements of the system which was implemented were two large excavated diversion channels, a storage reservoir, and ring dykes around several small communities. In terms of cost and size, the flood control system is the largest in Canada and despite Federal contributions amounting to nearly 60 percent of the final cost, it represented a considerable fiscal burden for the comparatively small population of Manitoba. Between the opening of the Red River Floodway in 1968 and 1979, a series of exceptional spring peak flows on the Red and Assiniboine Rivers demonstrated the benefits of such a system to a degree which could not have been anticipated at the time the projects were being considered. Furthermore, maximum spring discharges from 1913 to 1978 show a clear rising trend, indicating that the flood hazard is becoming even more severe than was initially assumed; if this trend continues, future benefits will continue to exceed expectations. The overall effectiveness of the hazard reduction program in the Red River Valley, however, has suffered from continued development in unprotected areas. Recent federal-provincial agreements have been reached which will substantially reduce this problem and place greater emphasis on improving the non-structural components of an overall flood hazard reduction program.     

FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR FLOOD EVENTS UNDER A PEARSON 3 OR LOG PEARSON 3 DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: The Pearson type 3 (P3) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3) distributions are very frequently used in flood frequency analysis. Existing methods for constructing confidence intervals for quantiles (X_p) of these two distributions are very crude. Most of these methods are based on the idea of adjusting confidence intervals for quantiles Y_p of the normal distribution to obtain approximate confidence inervals for quantiles X_p of the P3/LP3 distribution. Since there is no theoretical reason why this “base” distribution, Y, should be taken to be normal, we search in the present study for the best possible base distribution for producing confidence intervals for P3/LP3 quantiles. We consider a group of base distributions such as the normal, log normal, Weibull, Gumbel, and exponential. We first assume that the skew coefficient, γ of X, to be known, and develop a method for adjusting confidence intervals for Y_p to produce approximate confidence intervals for X_p. We then compare this method (Method A) with another method (Method B) introduced by Stedinger. Simulation shows that the performance of each of these two methods depends on the base distribution Y that is being used, but as a whole, the normal distribution appears to be the best-fit distribution for producing confidence intervals for P3/LP3 quantiles when γ is assumed to be known. We then extend our method (Method A) to the more important case of unknown coefficient of skewness. It is shown that by taking Y to be Weibull, fairly accurate confidence intervals for P3/LP3 quantiles can be obtained for quite a wide range of sample sizes and coefficients of skewness commonly found in hydrology. The case of the P3 distribution with negative skewness needs further research.     

ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK FOR FLOOD AND SEDIMENT CONTROL WITH DETENTION BASINS1

ABSTRACT: A framework for combining economic factors and the hydrolo of detention basins is provided. The general development of economic production functions for water quality (sediment) and flood control is discussed. Example production functions are generated to compare water quality (sediment control only) and flood control. For the given example, the design of a detention basin for downstream sediment control is economically unwarranted. When compared to on-site detention facilities, regional detention structures appear to be more practical from an economic standpoint for water quality control. Since sediment was the only water quality parameter assessed, it is entirely possible that the design of a detention basin for water quality control would be justified if the effects of all pollutants of concern could be quantified. Policy aspects of detention facilities that relate to the economics of water quality control are also discussed.     

BENEFITS AND LAND USE CHANGE CONNECTED WITH A FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: This study examines agricultural land use change in the flood plain of the Iowa River as a result of building the Coralville Dam. Estimates of land use change and the benefits realized from the project are compared to the original project study benefits estimated by the Corps of Engineers. An analysis of the factors affecting land use change is carried out through a regression model to determine those variables that explain observed land use change.     

A FLOOD DAMAGE MODEL FOR FLOOD PLAIN STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: Hydrologic and economic information must be integrated in flood plain management. This study describes an integrated approach which includes consideration of the hydrologic, hydrodynamic, physical, and economic components of the total system. On the basis of these components, a theoretical model is proposed which provides a rational procedure for estimating flood damages from projections of economic development within an area. The utility of the model is demonstrated by applying it to a flood-prone region in Southern Quebec, Canada.     

MAKING SMARTER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper outlines a sound, practical approach for making more informed decisions about environmental policy choices. It emphasizes the importance of using a structured decision process to specify and organize values, use these values to create alternatives, and assess tradeoffs to help achieve a desired balance across key objectives. Although these decision making steps are based on common sense, they are often neglected or poorly carried out as part of the complex evaluations of natural resource options. We discuss several reasons for this frequent neglect of decision making principles and provide examples from recent water use planning projects to demonstrate some of the benefits of using a structured, decision focused approach: new and better solutions, increased and more productive participation by stakeholders, and greater defensibility and acceptance of the resource management evaluation process and its conclusions.     

FACTORS AFFECTING WATERWAY INVESTMENT DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: There are many factors, other than economic efficiency, which must be considered in judging the merits of proposed investments in the inland navigation system. No satisfactory formula exists for deciding the net worth of public investments in water resources projects. Such a measure would not be accepted because these investments can serve conflicting goals. Political, rather than technical, judgments are required to resolve these goal conflicts.     

FLOOD PLAIN MODELING1

Computer simulation of river basin hydrology has rapidly progressed from an interesting academic exercise to a practical engineering procedure of increasing utility. Mathematical models of the many interrelated processes which occur in a basin have been developed along with efficient numerical procedures for their solution. The present paper is concerned with a particular model which has been used to describe the transformation of a temporally and spatially varying rainfall into a time history of stage and discharge on a flood plain. Although developed principally as a model of the physical processes involved, it is envisioned that the model can serve as one component of an information system for flood plain planning and management. The model consists of the following elements: (i) a rainfall simulation which generates stochastic inputs to the model according to specified rainfall statistics, (ii) a catchment-runoff model which converts the rainfall to surface runoff, (iii) a flood stage model which converts the surface runoff to time histories of flood stage and discharge. The model has been used to investigate the effect of various structural flood control measures in a basin and, in particular, to establish frequency-stage information for each of these. Of particular interest in development of the model have been recurring and partially unanswered questions relative to the proper balance among availability of data for use in the model, data requirements of the model and the objectives of the outputs produced by the model.     

COMPREHENSIVE FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT1

Flooding and the susceptibility to flood damage inherent in all land uses constitute the flood hazard. Resolution of the hazard while properly recognizing flood plain environmental attributes within the context of overall community or area needs is the essence of comprehensive flood plain management. The traditional approach–flood control–has effected modification of only the flooding component of the hazard whether it be coastal or inland. Until recently Federal programs have overlooked the possibilities of modifying the susceptibility component, for which the major responsibility lies with non-Federal interests. Beginning with actions in the TVA area, the latter is now being strongly encouraged through Federal programs and actions notably the Flood Plain Management Services and Survey Programs of the Corps of Engineers, those stemming from Executive Order 11296, and those required for eligibility under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968. Flood plain management objectives must be stated in planning, e.g., economic efficiency, reduction in threat to life and health, environmental improvement, and regional development, to permit proper evaluation of the optional means and approaches for achieving them.     

FLOOD HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND FLOOD PLAIN MANAGEMENT ON ALLUVIAL FANS1

ABSTRACT: Recognition of the flood hazard that exists on alluvial fans has seriously lagged behind the recognition of other more conventional flood hazards such as those associated with most rivers. This delay in recognition was due, until recently, to a general lack of economic investment and development in these areas and a concomitant lack of historical alluvial fan flood damage. Dramatic recent events, such as Tropical Storm Kathleen, emphasized to the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) the need for developing an appropriate methodology to identify flood hazard areas on alluvial fans. This paper presents the methodology now employed by FIA as well as flood plain management considerations that could reduce future flood related damage to communities developing in these areas.     

STORMWATER DETENTION BASINS AND RESIDENTIAL LOCATIONAL DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: Residents of seven subdivisions with wet and dry stormwater basins were questioned about the role the basin played in their decision to purchase their home. They were asked to estimate the impact of such basins on the image of residential developments and on lot values. Respondents believed that wet basins contributed positively to subdivision image and that lots in developments with wet basins were more valuable than comparable lots in dry basin subdivisions. Lots adjacent to wet basins were perceived as the most valuable, while those adjacent to dry basins were considered the least valuable.     

PLOTTING FORMULA FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY1

ABSTRACT: In flood frequency analysis it is required to estimate the values of probabilities based on plotting formula. All of the many existing formula provide different results, particularly at the tails of the distribution. The existing practice in selection of a particular formula is rather arbitrary; and often Weibull's formula is recommended, which provided biased and conservative results. Based on the mean square criterion, a new plotting formula is developed, and it is given by F_m= (m - 0.24)/(N + 0.5).     

ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD RESPONSES FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH1

ABSTRACT The flooding conditions in the basin of the Red River of the North are reviewed in terms of the accuracy of the flood forecasts and the response of both the floodplain occupants and government agencies to these forecasts. The flood prediction methods in Canada and the United States are compared. The accuracy of these prediction measures for the major floods in recent history is reviewed. The differences between the way in which the American and Canadian authorities approach the flood emergencies are outlined. The accuracy of the forecasts are plotted against a number of parameters which reflect the efficiency of the flood fighting measures initiated by those flood forecasts. The significant features of these plots are discussed.     

USE OF HISTORIC FLOOD INFORMATION IN ESTIMATING FLOOD PEAKS ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

Regional procedures to estimate flood magnitudes for ungaged watersheds typically ignore available site-specific historic flood information such as high water marks and the corresponding flow estimates, otherwise referred to as limited site-specific historic (LSSH) flood data. A procedure to construct flood frequency curves on the basis of LSSH flood observations is presented. Simple inverse variance weighting is employed to systematically combine flood estimates obtained from the LSSH data base with those from a regional procedure to obtain improved estimtes of flood peaks on the ungaged watershed. For the region studied, the variance weighted estimates of flow had a lower logarithmic standard error than either the regional or the LSSH flow estimates, when compared to the estimates determined by three standard distributions for gaged watersheds investigated in the development of the methodology. Use of the simple inverse variance weighting procedure is recommended when “reliable” estimates of LSSH floods for the ungaged site are available.     

OPTIMIZATION OF WATER ALLOCATION DECISIONS AFFECTING ESTUARINE ECOLOGY1

ABSTRACT .The problem analyzed in this paper is how to allocate optimally the available surface water in a river system among those who compete for its use, while acknowledging explicitly that for coastal states the ecology of bays and estuaries must be numbered among the competitors. The objective is to maximize the benefit resulting from water use while satisfying a set of constraints on flow. Benefit is assumed to be a function of the amount of water used and the time period in which the water is used. A mathematical model of this problem is shown to fit the format of the minimum cost circulation network flow problem. The Out-of-Kilter algorithm of D. R. Fulkerson is proposed as a solution technique. Sensitivity analysis on the input data is described as a means of determining the minimum economic benefit required to justify the allocation of a given volume of water needed to sustain the ecology of an estuary.     

THE USE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL INDICES FOR FLOOD PEAK ESTIMATION ON UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

: The construction of a flood peak index map was attempted for use by hydrologists in the simple format of rainfall maps. Since flood peaks are highly dependent on watershed area, the effect of area was removed. By regression analysis flood peaks of 2.33 and 100-year return periods were found to be proportional to watershed area to the 0.8 and 0.7 powers, respectively. Therefore, indices C_{2 33}= Q_{2 33}/_A0.7 were completed at each gage and plotted on a Pennsylvania map. It was attempted to further remove some of the scatter by regression of C with several other watershed parameters like slope, percent forest cover, and watershed shape, but no significant correlation could be found. The index maps, drawn without attenuation of the scatter, can be used by hydrologists to compute flood peaks as Q = CAⁿ (with n = 0.8 and 0.7 for the 2.33 and 100-year flood peaks, respectively). Flood peak safety factors can be based on visual observation of the index variation in the vicinity of the location for which the flood peak estimate is needed.     

RESOLUTION OF IMPACTS OF RUNOFF EVENTS ON A WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR WITH A ROBOTIC MONITORING NETWORK1

A robotic water quality monitoring network is used to resolve the coupled patterns of a natural tracer, specific conductance (SC), and metrics of light scattering and turbidity for Schoharie Creek and downstream Schoharie Reservoir, with particular emphasis on the impacts of runoff events. Strong relationships between these parameters and streamflow, and the propensity for this tributary to plunge in the reservoir in summer and fall based on its lower temperature, are reported. The entry of this stream, the primary tributary, into the reservoir as a turbid density current during runoff events is depicted as distinct and vertically coincident subsurface SC minima and peaks in measures of light scattering. The magnitudes of these signatures imparted to the reservoir's water column are demonstrated to be strongly dependent on the magnitude of the runoff event. The time course of the diminishment of these signatures and longitudinal differences in turbidity within the reservoir are described. The documented patterns of SC and metrics of light scattering provided by the robotic monitoring network offer a rare opportunity to support development and testing of a turbidity model with the necessary attributes of fine temporal and spatial resolution.     

UNIVARLATE LEAST SQUARES MUSKINGUM FLOOD ROUTING1

ABSTRACT: The Muskingum method of hydrologic flood routing is based on a graphical bivariate curve fitting procedure. The subjectivity of this procedure may lead to problems of reproducibility and provides no guarantee of model coefficients which minimize the error of estimation. A transformation is developed to express the Muskingum method as a univariate transcendental function suitable for numeric solution. Solution of this function minimizes the sum of the squared deviations between estimated and measured rates of discharge. Five textbook examples of the Muskingum method are evaluated by the univariate transformation. Error reductions range from negligible to tenfold. While the univariate transformation may not improve upon graphically-based results in every case, in no instances are the univariate results inferior; in many cases they are superior.