中国台风灾害及其影响的研究

中国是世界上受热带气旋影响最严重的国家之一。本文对影响和登陆中国的热带气旋活动的特征、台风灾害特点及其形成规律作了分析，并讨论了台风灾害对中国社会和经济发展的影响。分析结果指出，影响中国的台风灾害具有发生频率高、突发性强、群发性显著、影响范围广、成灾强度大等特点，这类灾害主要由台风带来的狂风、暴雨、风暴潮及其引发的灾害链所造成。台风灾害不仅造成大批人员伤亡，而且对中国各个经济部门都有严重影响，它所     

上海城市风暴潮灾害及其预测

风暴潮是上海地区最主要的自然灾害之一。其特点一是大的风暴潮灾害都是由于台风影响造成的;二是重灾区主要发生在沿杭州湾、长江口地区和市区;三是随首防潮设施防御能力提高而减轻,随地面下沉面加重;四是随着长江口、黄浦江潮位的不断抬高,黄浦江中上游地区潮灾加重。因而,预测可能最高潮位,因害设防,对于防灾减灾具有实践意义。     

Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

基于验证性因素分析的台风风暴潮灾害经济损失影响因子优化分析

建立客观有效的指标体系是精准估算台风风暴潮灾害经济损失的途径之一。本文以广东省为案例研究区,用验证性因素分析方法对影响灾害经济损失的危险性、脆弱性、抗灾能力3类风险要素进行指标甄别遴选,并将研究区按照经济发展条件分为3个时段,分别分析不同时段内各个风险要素指标的变化。研究表明,对于不同时段,各风险要素的影响指标变化不大,但与风险要素的关联程度会有差异。与传统的指标体系构建相比,本文结合历史案例构建备选指标更具有事实依据,并且利用验证性因素分析方法进行指标遴选,排除了人为主观因素的干扰,增强了指标与研究对象的关联度,减少了指标冗余,使得结果更具有合理性、科学性,为指标体系的研究提供了一个新的思路。     

80年代以来全球重大气象灾害评述

８０年代以来世界异常气候和气象灾害频繁发生，有些灾害甚至造成了极其严重的社会和经济后果．本文根据所收集到的观测资料，对８０年代以来全球的重大气象灾害及其影响进行了评述．     

自然灾害保险风险分析

在考虑自然灾害的危险性、灾害的经济与社会易损性和风险区的工程防御能力的基础上，建立了自然灾害保险风险分析的数学模型。选择给人类社会造成重大损失的地震、地质灾害、洪水和台风等4种自然灾害作为灾害危险度评判的灾种，利用所建立的数学模型，对中国由然灾害保险风险进行了评判。并根据评判结果绘制了中国自然灾害保险风险区划图。     

Squatters' nightmare: the political economy of disasters and disaster response in zambia

Despite the frequency with which disasters occur, very few if any third world countries have developed elaborate disaster mitigation networks. Most commonly, governments in these countries focus their attention on disaster relief rather than disaster mitigation and preparedness. It is the contention of this paper that apart from the political and economic instability which will result from government apathy, lack of sensitivity to the question of disasters and disaster preparedness will result in untold suffering for the millions of our people who live on the urban margins and who are the most exposed to the dangers of disasters. This paper is about disasters and disaster response in Zambia.     

Reducing post-disaster conflict: a cross-cultural test of four hypotheses using archaeological data

Four hypotheses concerning the relationship between climate-related disasters and conflict are tested using archaeological data in a controlled cross-cultural comparison. The four hypotheses are (1) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because local economic conditions deprive polities of tax revenue so that they can no longer suppress conflict; (2) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because existing social inequalities lead to conflicts over differential access to resources; (3) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because migration forces population into condensed settlements ripe for conflict; and (4) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters in polities where leaders tightly control access to political authority because leaders may use violence to maintain control over the resources they use to secure support from other elites. Only the fourth hypothesis is supported. It is argued that understanding pre-disaster political strategies is key to understanding post-disaster conflict.     

自然灾害风险分析的信息矩阵方法

从致灾因子危险性分析，到伤亡和损失的可能性研究，自然灾害风险分析由4个环节组成，即致灾因子、承灾体输入、承灾体输出和社会系统。在大多数据情况下，风险事件的不确定性，主要来自于致灾因子时间、地点、强度的不确定。因此，自然灾害风险分析主要涉及两类模式识别：致灾因子概率分布识别和承灾体系统输入-输出关系识别。由于概率分布和输入-输出关系在数学上均可用函数表达，所以，自然灾害风险分析涉及的两类模式识别，均是函数关系的识别。给出了用信息矩阵识别这些函数关系的方法。为演示该方法的优点，用它处理了在我国得到的地震数据，识别了震中烈度与震级的关系。结果表明，得到的结果比线性回归、基于正态分布的模糊推理和人工神经元网络等的结果好。     

减灾事业的发展和综合减灾

中国减灾事业的发展史可分3个阶段:第一阶段是新中国成立以前的几千年,减灾活动以赈灾为主,帝王“祭天求恕”,“防灾吏制”,安抚于民。清末民初1800至1949年间计发生巨灾25起,死亡4993万余人,总灾亡则近亿,年均灾亡60万人以上,这段惨痛的灾况记下了十分难得的灾情史,泣血于残野。新中国成立后,在“为人民服务”的思想指导下,为减轻灾害损失,逐步建立了气象、水利、农林、地震、海洋、地质等专业的灾害科技与减灾工程,政府并组织社会兼事抗灾、救灾、应急减灾,国家减灾实力快速增长,已取得突出减灾实效,这个阶段比第一阶段灾亡人数下降了90%以上,但年均灾亡人口仍有1.2万人左右。该阶段的工作特点是以单灾种纵向体系为主,不同灾类的监测、预报水平尚高低不一,这与成灾机理的难易程度和工作条件的强弱有关。21世纪初,随全球增温之势锐升,多类极端灾变遍及各洲,促使许多国家发动全社会人众共同探求“综合减灾”之路;我国政府已迅即开展全社会应急减灾行动,开启了“综合减灾”之先声,这是减灾事业步入第三阶段的先导。综合减灾应该是全社会相关部门和民众的统一行动。目前尚有3个问题需要弄清楚,一是多种自然灾害之间成灾机理相关性的研究,其对象是灾害群与灾害链;二是全社会减灾要素综合运作预案的优选;三是如何核算减灾投入与社会可持续发展之正、负效应关系。     

Study on Middle and Short Term Forecast and Assessment Technology on Atmosphere Hydrosphere Disasters

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20世纪全球重大毒性灾害及其历史教训

本文回顾了20世纪世界41个国家发生的200起重大毒性灾害，分析研究了毒性灾害种类的历史演变、成因与特征，及其对人类社会和经济发展造成的重大影响和与经济损失。研究表明，随着科技发展与经济的全球化，21世纪将是毒性灾害频繁发生的时期，应从历史事件中汲取经验教训，采取果断有力措施，减少毒性灾害的发生，减轻毒性灾害造成的损失。     

内蒙古中西部地区土壤紧实度初步研究

沙尘暴的发生与沙尘暴源地的下垫面状况密不可分,下垫面要素中土壤紧实度等地表状况指标是沙尘暴灾害下垫面因子的危险度研究的重要内容。选取沙尘暴源地的内蒙古中西部地区为研究区域,于2004年4月进行了土壤紧实度实地采样,对获取的36个采样点的数据进行了统计分析,发现在不同的植被覆盖类型下,地表的土壤紧实度值具有明显的分异特征和分布范围。以1∶10万的内蒙古土地利用类型图为依托进行重分类,对研究区域的土壤紧实度值进行空间上的了反演。并通过2009年第二次实地采样对该反演的精度进行了验证,排除干扰因素后,发现土壤紧实度的反演结果良好,因此可以获得空间范围上土壤紧实度的一个粗略范围值。研究结果可为日后进行土壤紧实度对沙尘暴的影响和贡献等级划分以及沙尘暴下垫面脆弱性风险评估和区划提供数据支持。     

The future of disasters studies: new disasters and the case of the Horn of Africa

Past disasters have been well studied, but the challenge of using the findings to improve the management of future events remains a daunting task. This paper argues that there are new and complex disasters of which the state itself has become the main source, as reflected in the Horn of Africa. This region is characterised by increasing vulnerability owing to the alarming decline of democracy and the rise of authoritarianism. These new disasters are less researched because of the hazard of conducting fieldwork in such environments. However, there is mounting evidence to highlight the possibility of performing research in these settings, but not by employing traditional methods; rather, these tools may need to be customised for use. One key policy implication here is that donors may need to invest more money in analysing these new disasters and they may need to consider building and strengthening genuine partnerships between Northern and Southern research institutions     

1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统风险特征分析及其综合风险管理

长期以来,海洋灾害一直是困扰着海域及海岸带社会经济发展的一大障碍.中国是深受海洋灾害影响的国家之一.为此,从灾害系统论的角度,分析了1990年以来中国海洋灾害系统的风险特征.研究表明,中国在过去的15年中,工程性防灾减灾措施已经使海洋灾害灾情得到了一定的控制,但由于中国海域海事活动不断增多、海岸带经济密度快速提高,大大增加了海域及海岸带承灾体对海洋灾害风险的暴露,又由于海岸带及近海海域污染加重,海洋生物灾害发生的可能性增大,使中国海域面临的灾害风险趋于上升.此外,还讨论了中国海洋灾害综合风险管理的体系,提出从海洋灾害系统角度,加强海洋灾害综合风险管理能力的建设,以促进海洋及海岸带地区由政府、企业、社区共同组成的综合减灾范式的建立.     

热带气旋"碧利斯"与"派比安"灾害成因对比分析

2006年,对广西间接影响的第4号强热带风暴"碧利斯"和正面袭击的第6号台风"派比安",共造成直接经济损失42亿元,占广西全年所有气象灾害造成的直接经济损失的50%。对比分析"碧利斯"与"派比安"的灾害特点与成因,从而可引发对防御措施的思考。     

Vulnerability to typhoon hazards in the coastal informal settlements of Metro Manila,the Philippines

In many low‐ and middle‐income countries informal communities—also termed slum and squatter areas—have become a dominant and distinct form of urban settlement, with ever increasing populations. Such communities are often located in areas of high hazard exposure and frequently affected by disasters. While often recognised as one of the highest ‘at risk’ populations, this paper will argue that informal settlers have been directly and indirectly excluded from many formal mechanisms, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disaster events. Household surveys were conducted across several frequently flooded informal coastal communities in Metro Manila, the Philippines, following a major typhoon and storm surge disaster. The study revealed a large level of diversity in socio‐economic vulnerability, although all households faced similar levels of physical exposure and physical vulnerability. Disaster risk reduction policies and responses need to better integrate informal settlement areas and recognise the diversity within these communities.     

The humanitarian response costs of climate change

This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a 32 per cent increase (taking into account only changes in frequency of disasters) to upwards of a 1,600 per cent increase when other criteria, such as intensity, are also taken into account. The paper further highlights that extreme weather events do not occur in isolation and the increasing interconnectedness of world economic and political systems has made disasters more complex and destructive. It makes a number of recommendations, including the need for more rigorous and systematic collection of disaster-related data and more constructive interaction between the humanitarian and climate change communities on future research, planning and action.     

黑龙江省可持续发展与21世纪减轻地质灾害策略分析

黑龙江省地质、地貌、气候、水文条件复杂,是地质灾害的多发区;且随着经济的发展,人类经济工程活动诱发的地质灾害也在逐年增加.本文分析了黑龙江省地质灾害的类型、成因、分布及危害;论述了地质灾害与可持续发展的辩证关系;并为促进本省可持续发展提出了切合实际的减灾对策.     

香港大屿山岛自然滑坡的空间分布与影响因子浅析

香港地处热带高温多雨强风化区,且地形陡峭,人类活动对自然环境的影响较大,导致滑坡灾害成为香港地区最主要的自然灾害之一。 许多针对香港滑坡的研究侧重于研究人工斜坡上发生的滑坡,由于自然滑坡难以调查,很少有人从区域的尺度来研究自然滑坡。然而,几十年的研究和调查表明,自然地表滑坡确实代表着一种自然灾害。大屿山岛是香港地区最大的离岛,保存着相对完整的自然状态,是研究香港地区自然滑坡的理想研究区。本文利用多年航片解译的滑坡数据,在应用地理信息系统技术的基础上,分析了大屿山岛自然地表滑坡的空间分布特征及滑坡与地形、地貌、地质、土地利用和植被等相关影响因子的关系。