基于气候变化的干旱脆弱性评价——以青海东部为例

基于青海东部农业区22个县区的20个气象、农业、社会经济统计指标,利用层次分析法和等级化等数学分析方法,分别进行了暴露性、敏感性和适应性的评价,再通过分析承险体的内在脆弱性,将气候变化和内在脆弱性进行综合分析,得到了青海东部干旱脆弱性等级。结果表明:在目前全球变暖背景下,干旱脆弱性最高的是民和、化隆,较高的是城中、城北区、湟中、大通等四县区,门源、互助、同仁、同德的干旱脆弱性中等。在此基础上,提出了强化旱灾的风险管理模式、倡导节约型水资源开发利用模式等干旱防范措施。     

The 2009/2010 Caribbean drought: a case study

The impacts of drought in the Caribbean have not been as dramatic as in some other parts of world, but it is not exempt from the experiences of drought. As a result of the effects of a prolonged drought in 2009/2010, the agenda for the 21st Inter‐Sessional Meeting of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) paid particular attention to the issue of drought. This paper reviews the management framework for responding to drought disasters in five CARICOM countries. The paper also reports on some of the effects of the 2009/2010 drought with particular reference to Grenada and the Grenadines. During the drought in these islands there were numerous bush fires with devastating effects on agriculture, severe water shortages that impacted on the tourism industry and other social effects. It is evident that there was inadequate preparation for the event. Greater planning and investment are therefore required to reduce future impacts.     

农业旱灾形成过程中的承灾体脆弱性分析--以湖南鼎城为例

农业旱灾的形成是降水不足或不均与农业生产系统脆弱性共同作用的结果,承灾体脆弱性的高低会起到“放大“或“缩小“灾情的作用,因此降低承灾体的脆弱性是抗灾减灾的主要和有效途径.选择湖南省鼎城区为研究区,通过分析灾前期-灾中期旱灾的形成过程及其与承灾体脆弱性的关系,分别针对轻度干旱和中重度干旱建立了评价指标体系,采用加权求和法对水田-水稻农业生产系统的脆弱性进行了评价.结果表明,该区的承灾体脆弱性分布存在一定的区域差异,脆弱度由高至低排序为西北岗地区、南部低山/丘陵区、中部平原/岗地区、东北湖/平原区,这一分析结果与实际灾情的分布规律基本一致.通过分析脆弱性分布规律和变化原因,发现地形和灌溉分别是影响灾前期和灾中期承灾体脆弱性的最重要因素,进而提出了具体的减灾防灾建议.     

农业旱灾脆弱性评价--以北方农牧交错带兴和县为例

基于区域自然灾害系统理论,构建了农业旱灾灾害系统及其脆弱性评价指标体系,建立了农业旱灾脆弱性综合评价模型,指出农业旱灾脆弱性评价是一个过程性评价:灾前-灾中强调区域农业生产系统的易损性,灾中-灾后强调区域里的人应对旱灾的适应性.以地处北方农牧交错带的兴和县为例,进行了农业旱灾脆弱性评价,结果表明:农牧交错带的农业旱灾脆弱性在县域尺度上主要受农牧用地比例的影响,在农户尺度上取决于非农牧收入比例的大小,所以合理、有效的农牧结合发展和非农牧产业发展有利于降低该地区的农业旱灾脆弱性.     

Livestock mortality in pastoralist herds in Ethiopia and implications for drought response

Participatory epidemiology methods were employed retrospectively in three pastoralist regions of Ethiopia to estimate the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought. The results showed that starvation/dehydration accounted for between 61.5 and 100 per cent of excess livestock mortality during drought, whereas disease‐related mortality accounted for between 0 and 28.1 per cent of excess mortality. Field observations indicate that, in livestock, disease risks and mortality increase in the immediate post‐drought period, during rain. The design of livelihoods‐based drought response programmes should include protection of core livestock assets, and it should take account of the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought and immediately afterwards. This study shows that, when comparing livestock feed supplementation and veterinary support, relatively more aid should be directed at the former if the objective is to protect core livestock during drought. Veterinary support should consider disease‐related mortality in the immediate post‐drought period, and tailor inputs accordingly.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.     

Kappa系数在干旱预测模型精度评价中的应用——以关中平原的干旱预测为例

Kappa系数较多地用在评价遥感影像分类精度中。通过对分类影像和参考影像逐个像元统计,并建立误差矩阵,可以较准确地验证遥感影像分类的精度。将Kappa系数引入到关中平原地区加权马尔可夫和自回归移动平均两种干旱预测模型的精度评价中,基于标准降水化指数和条件温度植被指数两种干旱指标,对干旱监测数据和模型预测数据建立误差矩阵,得到了错估误差、漏估误差、总体精度和Kappa系数。综合应用4种评价指标分析模型的预测结果表明,错估误差和漏估误差能够验证预测模型的局部适用性,总体精度在一定范围内不能够直接反映模型的预测精度,Kappa系数可以较精确地评价不同时空间尺度的干旱预测模型精度。当参与预测的样本数目增加到一定程度时,Kappa系数和总体精度基本相等,可以更准确地评价模型预测精度。     

基于模糊理论的农业旱灾风险评估——以山西省阳泉市为例

针对小区域因历史灾情数据缺乏,传统统计模型旱灾风险分析准确度不高的缺陷,利用模糊数学方法,建立了评估小区域农业旱灾风险的数学模型。该模型的优点是能以最少的样本最佳地求解风险评估问题,并能反映风险评估的模糊不确定性。最后,用该模型评估了山西省阳泉县2001-2010年的农业旱灾风险指数。结果表明,该方法意义清晰,可供当地防旱减灾工作参考。     

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

This paper explores sovereign risk preferences against direct and indirect natural disasters losses in industrialized countries. Using Australia as a case study, the analysis compares expected disaster losses and government capacity to finance losses. Utilizing a national disaster loss dataset, extreme value theory is applied to estimate an all-hazard annual loss distribution. Unusually but critically, the dataset includes direct as well as indirect losses, allowing for the analysis to consider the oft-ignored issue of indirect losses. Expected annual losses (direct, and direct plus indirect) are overlaid with a risk-layer approach, to distinguish low, medium and extreme loss events. Each risk layer is compared to available fiscal resources for financing losses, grounded in the political reality of Australian disaster financing. When considering direct losses only, we find support for a risk-neutral preference on the part of the Australian government for low and medium loss levels, and a risk-averse preference in regard to extreme losses. When indirect losses are also estimated, we find that even medium loss levels are expected to overwhelm available fiscal resources, thereby violating the available resources assumption underlying arguments for sovereign risk neutrality. Our analysis provides empirical support for the assertion that indirect losses are a major, under-recognised concern for industrialized countries. A risk-averse preference in regard to medium and extreme loss events recommends enhanced investment in both corrective and prospective risk reduction in relation to these risks level, in particular to reduce indirect losses.     

Complementing institutional with localised strategies for climate change adaptation: a South-North comparison

Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South, local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have emerged because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In the North, in contrast, local coping strategies are comparatively poorly developed. However, the extent of the changing climatic conditions is also reducing the capacity of Northern institutions to deal with climatic extremes and variability, which emphasises the need for more local-level engagement in the North. This paper analyses the differences in local and institutional responses to climate change and disasters in a Southern and a Northern city (San Salvador, El Salvador, and Manchester, United Kingdom, respectively), and highlights how the lessons learned might be translated into an improved distributed governance system; that is, an 'integrated engagement model', where local and institutionalised responses support rather than hinder each other, as is currently the case.     

Emergency seed aid in Kenya: some case study insights on lessons learned during the 1990s

This article reviews the effectiveness of seed-aid distributions in Kenya during the 1990s. It analyses the internal process and effects, i.e. the performance of the aid itself as well as the external process and effects, i.e. how seed-aid intervention affected farmers' broader agricultural management strategies. During the drought emergency of 1997, Kenyan farmers favourably judged many of the immediate seed-aid features such as crop and variety appropriateness and seed quality--even through the overarching goals of the seed assistance were muddled, ranging from assistance to the poor, to generalised gift-giving to stimulating progressive farming practice. However, the longer term analyses, drawn from recollections of a decade of relief activity, showed no concrete evidence that seed aid, per se, had strengthened their farming systems, nor that those who have received it once were less likely to receive it again. Thus, while seed aid has been promoted to lessen the effects of an 'acute' stress, drought, Kenyan farmers, in practice, have been experiencing much wider, 'chronic' seed system problems. This article ends by exploring this distinction between acute and chronic seed system stress and suggests a range of interventions appropriate to each.     

Crop adaptation processes to extreme floods in Bangladesh: a case study

This paper investigates farmers’ crop adaptation processes in response to three recent devastating floods in Islampur, a case-study area in rural Bangladesh. The paper reports a multi-method research project which comprised a questionnaire survey, focus-group discussions and interviews with agricultural block supervisors. The author analyses three recent severe floods in Bangladesh, occurring in 1988, 1995 and 1998, and reviews the adaptation techniques and strategies embraced by the same group of farmers in order to survive the more devastating inundations that occur from time to time. The study concluded that vulnerable farmers are highly resilient and, with appropriate support, their adjustments can be sustainable. This enquiry showed that in the face of climate change both the inclusion of autonomous adaptations into planning and policy-making and the enhancement and support of community-based adaptation can be effective in ensuring the survival of riverine farming systems. This case study can be considered as a key reference case in regard to vulnerable locations in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna mega-delta basin, particularly in respect to Bangladesh.     

GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: a case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam

Linking community knowledge with modern techniques to record and analyse risk related data is one way of engaging and mobilising community capacity. This paper discusses the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) at the local level and the need for integrating modern technology and indigenous knowledge into disaster management. It suggests a way to mobilise available human and technical resources in order to strengthen a good partnership between local communities and local and national institutions. The paper also analyses the current vulnerability of two communes by correlating hazard risk and loss/damage caused by disasters and the contribution that domestic risk maps in the community can make to reduce this risk. The disadvantages, advantages and lessons learned from the GIS flood risk mapping project are presented through the case study of the Quang Tho Commune in Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam.     

A minority group's response to a severe climatic event: a case study of rural Indo-Fijians after Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016

This paper investigates the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016) on rural Indo-Fijians and their response to the devastation. Studies have previously examined how rural communities in Pacific Island countries respond to severe climatic events, arguing that traditional knowledge of the climate, together with indigenous techniques, contribute substantially to recovery from a disaster. Strong communal bonds have also been identified as an influencing factor. Disaster risk reduction frameworks often assume the availability of such knowledge and capital. Yet, little research has been done on how minority groups with limited access to such knowledge and capital cope with disaster-related damage. The current study shows that rural Indo-Fijians responded to the consequences of Tropical Cyclone Winston differently to indigenous Fijians, owing to relatively limited access to traditional awareness of the climate, communal labour sharing, and intra- and/or inter-community networks. The findings point to the necessity to implement a more inclusive disaster risk reduction framework.     

Climate change implications for disaster risk management in Japan: A case study on perceptions of risk management personnel and communities in Saijo city

This paper reviews climate change impacts and the existing disaster risk management system in Japan and offers the results of a structured questionnaire survey of the community leaders and disaster risk management personnel of Saijo city of Japan that assesses their perceptions about dealing with the extreme disasters by the existing disaster risk management systems. This study was inspired by the record number of typhoon landfall that has surprised the local government and communities in 2004. While unearthing the hidden vulnerabilities in cities like Saijo, this event has loosened the confidence of local communities on the disaster risk management systems. From the study, we conclude that the existing disaster risk management systems need further fillip and that the proactive community involvement in disaster risk management is still in nascent stages. Associating with the scientific community, involving the local communities (including the elderly), enhancing the redundancy in disaster risk management systems, inculcating strategic thinking and micro-level planning, conducting vulnerability assessments by considering the special circumstances including resource constraints of small cities and better policy coordination across the administrative hierarchy are some important considerations for dealing with the uncertainty brought by the extreme events.     

The nuclear disaster management system in Taiwan: a case study of the third (Maanshan) nuclear power plant

This paper explores the effectiveness of the nuclear disaster management system in Taiwan via a review of the third (Maanshan) nuclear power plant. In doing so, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan on 11 March 2011 is reviewed and compared with the situation in Taiwan. The latter's nuclear disaster management system is examined with respect to three key variables: information; mobilisation; and inter‐organisational cooperation. In‐depth interviews with 10 policy stakeholders with different backgrounds serve as the research method. The results point up the need for improvement in all dimensions. In addition, they highlight three principal problems with the nuclear disaster management system: (i) it might not be possible to provide first‐hand nuclear disaster information immediately to the communities surrounding the Maanshan facility in Pingtung County, southern Taiwan; (ii) the availability of medical resources for treating radiation in Hengchun Township is limited; and (iii) the inter‐organisational relationships for addressing nuclear disasters need to be strengthened. Hence, cooperation among related organisations is necessary.     

中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.     

沙尘暴评估中土壤含水量概率分布模型研究 --以内蒙古中西部地区为例

根据内蒙古中部地区二连浩特,乌拉特中旗和乌海3个观测站2001年4月至2004年4月的逐时土壤含水量观测结果和相应的沙尘暴发生的实况,对沙尘暴发生时和没有沙尘暴发生时的土壤含水量,分别用正态分布、指数分布、伽马分布、瑞利分布、威布尔分布和耿贝尔分布函数进行了拟合,并根据相关系数和最小二乘法进行了拟合优度检验.结果表明,对内蒙古中部地区这3个地点而言,沙尘暴发生时的土壤含水量服从耿贝尔分布,沙尘暴不发生时的土壤含水量服从伽马分布.根据耿贝尔分布,建立了土壤含水量重现期的曲线拟合模型.