Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

An integrated method for the assessment of social sustainability in public-works procurement

Today, critical deficiencies hinder the effective inclusion of social criteria in public-works procurement. The primary reasons for this are the lack of information and objective social assessment methods in the construction industry. Hence, this paper proposes a method to assist agencies in including indicators and objective assessments of social sustainability in public-works procurement. This method applies to civil engineering projects in the infrastructure life-cycle construction stage using design-bid-build delivery. Eight social categories and 22 factors are organized into two organizational levels (project and company). Quantitative and semi-quantitative indicators are proposed to assess the social commitment of construction companies in their organizations and projects. Additionally, two aggregation formulas are established as assessment criteria in public-works procurement. The results highlight that the indicators' importance in assessing social commitment in a project can be defined depending on the local context. Moreover, the method to assess corporate social responsibility can also measure and compare a company's performance, regardless of size. The proposed method can be used in procurement procedures, helping public-works procurers develop transparent decision processes.     

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management.     

System dynamic simulation: A new method in social impact assessment (SIA)

Many complex social questions are difficult to address adequately with conventional methods and techniques, due to the complicated dynamics, and hard to quantify social processes. Despite these difficulties researchers and practitioners have attempted to use conventional methods not only in evaluative modes but also in predictive modes to inform decision making. The effectiveness of SIAs would be increased if they were used to support the project design processes. This requires deliberate use of lessons from retrospective assessments to inform predictive assessments. Social simulations may be a useful tool for developing a predictive SIA method. There have been limited attempts to develop computer simulations that allow social impacts to be explored and understood before implementing development projects. In light of this argument, this paper aims to introduce system dynamic (SD) simulation as a new predictive SIA method in large development projects. We propose the potential value of the SD approach to simulate social impacts of development projects. We use data from the SIA of Gareh-Bygone floodwater spreading project to illustrate the potential of SD simulation in SIA. It was concluded that in comparison to traditional SIA methods SD simulation can integrate quantitative and qualitative inputs from different sources and methods and provides a more effective and dynamic assessment of social impacts for development projects. We recommend future research to investigate the full potential of SD in SIA in comparing different situations and scenarios.     

Risk management and integrated assessment

Integrated Assessment (IA) is the pursuit of a research program generated by the limitations of traditional forms of risk management. This claim can be justified by the following argument. Over the last decades, analysts and practitioners have brought to maturity a large array of tools for risk management. Most of them rely on combining judgments of utility with judgments of probability. This is the approach of the Rational Actor Paradigm (RAP). With many environmental problems, however, RAP‐based tools have run into considerable practical and theoretical difficulties. In response to these difficulties, a series of alternative approaches to practical risk management and to the theoretical understanding of risk have been elaborated. They try to embed the rational choices of individual actors studied by RAP into a broader framework of social rationality. This task can be approached by distinguishing situations where an actor holds unambiguous judgments of preference and probability from situations characterized by ambivalent judgments. RAP can handle the former, but not the latter. Problems whose management requires a combination of widely differing scientific disciplines are especially likely to involve ambivalent judgments of probability. The study of such problems constitutes the research program of integrated assessment. It involves three main tasks: developing IA models which can represent ambivalent expectations and evaluations, developing IA models which use such representations to study non‐marginal changes of social systems, and developing procedures of participatory IA which enable researchers to engage in an iterative exchange with various stakeholders. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cultural Theory and integrated assessment

Most scientific work, integrated assessment included, tries to avoid bias. Cultural Theory, however, suggests that bias is unavoidable, and it predicts the various biases that are possible, the social conditions under which each will occur and the essentially complex nature of their interaction. If Cultural Theory is right (and examples from energy modelling and human land use in mountain ecosystems suggest that it is) then it is important that it and integrated assessment come together. The paper begins by explaining how this has, in fact, been happening, and then explores the implications of this for integrated assessment. Cultural Theory, in completing the fourfold typology of forms of social solidarity that is implicit in the classic markets‐and‐hierarchies distinction, gives us human systems that are complex: non‐linear, indeterministic, far from equilibrium, highly sensitive to initial conditions, and with future states that are unpredictable. Since the same has now been done to the classic ecological distinction between pioneer and climax communities, we find ourselves trying to manage a system, of which we ourselves are part, that is not manageable in the way that simple systems are manageable. Coming to terms with that new understanding, and putting together the tool‐kit appropriate to policy in a complex world, is the task we face. “Always learning, never getting it right” captures the new understanding: a sentiment that many integrated assessors will find congenial. The new tool‐kit, however, with its emphasis on reflexivity, on scenario planning and on micro and macro each as the cause of the other, presents more of a challenge.     

Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.     

A critical analysis of sustainable micro-manufacturing from the perspective of the triple bottom line: A social network analysis

Nowadays, substantial improvements in sustainable micro-manufacturing are explicitly addressed based on the triple bottom line (TBL) concept. However, strong criticisms are leveled for the applications of TBL as immense complexities of inner relationships of items and dimensional relationships within TBL, which they cause an inefficacy of accessing critical information in introducing the TBL concept to sustainable micro-manufacturing. In this study, social network analysis (SNA) is used for developing a TBL network of sustainable micro-manufacturing to find out precise meanings of individual items of various dimensions of TBL and the relationships between them. The main metrics of the dominant items of TBL such as in-degree, out-degree, betweenness centrality and closeness centrality are detailly discussed with 16 nodes for three dimensions in the TBL networks. The related findings are further analyzed to reveal the current situation, technical gaps and chances for the sustainable development of the micro-manufacturing sector. This study aims to reveal the relationship between the items of TBL of micro-manufacturing, and delivers the significant roles of the items of TBL according to the findings of metrics and visual analyses for sustainable micro-manufacturing, supporting micro-manufacturing sectors to implement effective sustainable strategies for production activities.     

Canadian insights: The challenges of an integrated environmental assessment framework

The paper draws results from a review of literature to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the integrated environmental assessment framework in Canada with respect to the inclusion of health impact assessment. Insights include the legislative nature, rigid structure and priority for the natural environment that may restrict progress and the pool of government agencies that need to be convinced of the benefits of health impact assessment that may provide a strong structure for compliance in the long term.     

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

A corporate approach to social monitoring and assessment for development in a fragile environment

The prevailing corporate trend regardingdevelopment of energy resources in the tropics emphasizesfinancial gain over long-term societal benefits. Somecorporations are beginning to find a competitive advantage linkedto proactive relations with host communities and adequateprotection of fragile ecosystems. Herein, we describe a casestudy where an international energy production company workedwith stakeholders to achieve social capital and sustainabledevelopment. The strategies aimed to strengthen local capacity toimprove social welfare and to ensure conservation and wise use ofbiodiversity. We provide examples, discuss lessons learned andmake recommendations for future development projects.     

Arsenic speciation in human hair: a new perspective for epidemiological assessment in chronic arsenicism

The analysis for arsenic in hair is commonly used in epidemiological studies to assess exposure to this toxic element. However, poor correlation between total arsenic concentration in hair and water sources have been found in previous studies. Exclusive determination of endogenous arsenic in the hair, excluding external contamination has become an analytical challenge. Arsenic speciation in hair appears as a new possibility for analytical assessing in As-exposure studies. This study applied a relative simple method for arsenic speciation in human hair based on water extraction and HPLC-HG-ICP-MS. The concentration of arsenic species in human hair was assessed in chronically As(V)-exposed populations from two villages (Esqui?a and Illapata) of the Atacama Desert, Chile. The arsenic concentrations in drinking water are 0.075 and 1.25 mg L(-1), respectively, where As(V) represented between 92 and 99.5% of the total arsenic of the consumed waters. On average, the total arsenic concentrations in hair from individuals of Esqui?a and Illapata were 0.7 and 6.1 microg g(-1), respectively. Four arsenic species, As(III), DMA(V), MMA(V) and As(V), were detected and quantified in the hair extracts. Assuming the found species in extracts represent the species in hair, more than 98% of the total arsenic in hair corresponded to inorganic As. On average, As(III) concentrations in hair were 0.25 and 3.75 microg g(-1) in Esqui?a and Illapata, respectively; while, the As(V) average concentrations were 0.15 and 0.45 microg g(-1) in Esqui?a and Illapata, respectively. Methylated species represent less than 2% of the extracted As (DMA(V)+ MMA(V)) in both populations. As(III) in hair shows the best correlation with chronic exposure to As(V) in comparison to other species and total arsenic. In fact, concentrations of As(total), As(III) and As(V) in hair samples are correlated with the age of the exposed individuals from Illapata (R= 0.65, 0.69, 0.57, respectively) and with the time of residence in this village (R= 0.54, 0.71 and 0.58, respectively).     

A delphi-style approach for developing an integrated food/non-food system sustainability assessment tool

Sustainability assessment is a complex field and its uptake amongst agricultural producers limited. Furthermore, the scope of current sustainability assessment tools does not extend to systems in which food production is integrated with production of non-food biomass (e.g. agroforestry). Participatory approaches to tool development offer a means to overcome the subjectivity of researcher-led tool design and thus the potential to increase relevance and engagement. In this work we develop a Delphi-style methodology as a means to produce a sustainability assessment tool suitable to assess and feedback on an integrated food/non-food system. Using a widely accepted agricultural sustainability framework and an existing farm sustainability assessment tool as a base, stakeholders were engaged with across six countries and multiple stakeholder groups to identify key indicators to be added to the tool. The methodology developed is described in detail, framed in the setting of this tool development process but providing a novel framework applicable to any situation where indicators must be developed for a complex issue of interest across multiple perspectives and stakeholder groups. Feedback and learning from the experience is provided. It was found that, contrary to some opinion, the inclusion of a face-to-face discussion round as part of the Delphi procedure provides a valuable means for information exchange and a move towards consensus amongst stakeholders. By using a ‘snowball’ approach to the in person discussions, it appears too that the loss of the voices of more socially retiring individuals can be avoided. Final levels of agreement vary substantially across the different areas of sustainability, with indicators in some areas (e.g. environmental integrity) proving much less controversial than others (e.g. social wellbeing). Despite this, the methodology effectively reaches a level of consensus amongst diverse stakeholders sufficient to guide the selection of sustainability indicators with a good level of confidence.     

Incorporating supra-local social structure into social impact assessment using causal network analysis

This paper discusses the incorporation of supra-local social structure (SLSS) analysis into social impact assessment (SIA) practice in order to afford a deeper and more complex understanding of the social production of the impacts of planned interventions. We define SLSS as the total set of political, economic, socio-cultural and ideological driving forces and external structural phenomena shaping the social vulnerability of affected communities. We advocate causal network analysis for effectively incorporating SLSS into SIA and we take the conflict over the HydroAysén project in Chilean Patagonia as an empirical case study. While previous applications have interpreted planned interventions as the root cause of impacts, this paper analyses the dialectical interaction of four elements: the SLSS, the local community, the planned intervention and its impacts. This application revealed two fundamental issues. First, on a theoretical-conceptual level, it showed the capacity of SLSS to mould the causal pathways of a project's impacts on the affected community. Second, on an applied level, it enabled identification of the elements that should be addressed to facilitate social management of the project.     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.