Fuelwood assessment at micro-watershed level in Northeast Himalaya: a case study in Manipur,India

Fuelwood is one of the major sources of energy in the domestic sector across the rural areas, especially in the developing regions across the world. The Northeastern Himalayan state of Manipur is dominated by the tribal population that largely depends on fuelwood from the nearby forest area. The entire dependence on forests for energy resources is affecting the sustainability of the forest ecosystem in the region, thus indicating the livelihood conditions. Since land-use land-cover change is the key driver to the change in resource availability of a region, the present study has tried to analyze the land-cover changes over a period 28 years. The second major component affecting resource availability is the increasing population pressure that leads to changes in the land dynamics, which directly affect the resource production. Based on the existing consumption pattern, the total consumption of fuelwood in the watershed ranges from a minimum of 289.992 tons/year to a maximum of 3545.719 tons/year with an average of 1561.956 tons/year in the year 2009 and simulated fuelwood consumption for the year 2021 is around 1469.260 tons/year. Nine different probable scenarios of resource are proposed to calculate the stress value that can be used by the policy-makers and planners for suitable policy implementation at the micro level with a complex social system.     

Fuelwood assessment at the micro-watershed level:a case study in Garhwal Himalaya,India

Biomass,as fuelwood,is one of the major sources of energy in rural areas,especially in the mountainous regions of the world.As the increasing human population exerts more pressure on the forest thereby inducing an adverse effect on the sustainability of the ecosystem,which consequently causes fuelwood crisis at a local level,this crisis is spatio-temporal in nature.Thus,the major objective of this study is to assess the sustainability of fuelwood at different probable scenarios at a micro watershed level.The present study was conducted in the Phakot watershed,the Tehri Garhwal district of central Himalaya in India,during 2006-2008.Based on the vegetation composition in the study area,the net primary productivity(NPP)value of the Oak forest,and mixed oak and sal forests,was used for the quantification of fuelwood availability in evergreen and deciduous forests,respectively.The fuelwood demand was calculated on the basis of seasonal fuelwood consumption values.Nine probable permutations for availability-demand scenarios assuming the existence of high(H),low(L)and average(A)conditions were analyzed for evaluating the stress.The available annual harvestable fuelwood in the watershed is in the minimum and maximum ranges of 2283.28 to 4066.00 tons,respectively,per year whereas it has a demand of 110.76 tons as the minimum to 3659 tons as the maximum annually.This shows that in the current availabilitydemand scenario,the watershed does not have fuelwood crisis in the present situation but needs to maintain the sustainability of the system.Based on our study,it is concluded that,globally,more spatio-temporal study is required to understand the issues at the local level.     

China's Present Situation of Coal Consumption and Future Coal Demand Forecast

This article analyzes China's coal consumption changes since 1991 and proportion change of coal consumption to total energy consumption. It is argued that power, iron and steel, construction material, and chemical industries are the four major coal consumption industries, which account for 85% of total coal consumption in 2005. Considering energy consumption composition characteristics of these four industries, major coal demand determinants, potentials of future energy efficiency improvement, and structural changes, etc., this article makes a forecast of 2010s and 2020s domestic coal demand in these four industries. In addition, considering such relevant factors as our country's future economic growth rate and energy saving target, it forecasts future energy demands, using per unit GDP energy consumption method and energy elasticity coefficient method as well. Then it uses other institution's results about future primary energy demand, excluding primary coal demand, for reference, and forecasts coal demands in 2010 and 2020 indirectly. After results comparison between these two methods, it is believed that coal demands in 2010 might be 2620-2850 million tons and in 2020 might be 3090-3490 million tons, in which, coal used in power generation is still the driven force of coal demand growth.     

Sustainable cooking energy options for rural poor people in India: an empirical study

Currently, energy consumption for cooking in rural households of India is mostly based on fuelwood used in traditional stoves. This paper presents results of a study carried out in a forest fringe area of India on cooking energy use. The concept of calculating levelized cost as cost per unit of useful energy is applied on source–device combinations of cooking and validated in Bargaon Community Development Block of Sundergarh District in Odisha, India. About 92 % of the households in the study area use fuelwood as the only energy source for cooking; the total use of fuelwood for only cooking, in the Block is nearly 1.8 times the total sustainable wood supply showing an urgent need for promoting alternative cooking energy options. This paper also presents an assessment of different cooking options in terms of cost per unit of useful cooking energy. LPG, biogas and gasifier stoves are found to be far too expensive for the local people. Briquette-fired improved stoves appear to be a promising cooking energy option in the study area. Government support and intervention are recommended for promoting this option.     

江苏省能源需求预测及二氧化碳减排研究

近年来,江苏省社会经济进入新的发展期,在经济高速发展的背后是能源的高消耗以及温室气体的大量排放。根据江苏省实际情况,运用LEAP模型建立了JSLEAP模型,并采用情景分析的方法,根据影响江苏省能源需求的因素设定了参照情景和可持续发展情景两个情景,系统地、全面地对江苏省未来能源需求和碳排放的发展趋势进行了分析,并提出了江苏省中长期能源发展对策,对江苏省制定正确的能源发展规划、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。研究表明：在两种情景下江苏省未来能源需求总量将持续增加,直到2045年后才有所下降;居民生活、第一产业、第二产业、第三产业各部门能源需求情况都将有所变化;人均CO2排放量、单位GDP的CO2排放量都将降低。但是无论是能源需求或碳排放方面,可持续发展情景都优于参照情景     

Community livelihood and its dependence on nature resources under pressure of conservation

Conflict between conservation and community livelihood is a significant issue in China.Based on Sustainable Livelihood Framework(SLA),this study systematically analyzed livelihoods assets of a community in a Yunnan snub-nosed monkey conservation area and found that the livelihood pentagon of the community was shaped by multiple but frail and unstable income sources,abundant natural resources with restricted use right,underutilized labors,inadequate financial resources,inconvenient physical capital and weak social capital.Villagers'income heavily depended on forest,and grazing and nontimber forest products(NTFP)collection are common and major income sources for villagers.However,differentiation of income dependence on forest among villagers'groups showed that there is no close correlation between the level of income and the level of income dependence on forest.Households'daily life also heavily depended on the forest due to heating and pig-feed cooking;hence,fuelwood cannot be easily replaced by any other energy resource for a long period.     

Fuelwood consumption in two tribal villages of the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve of the Indian Himalaya and strategies for fuelwood sustainability

Fuelwood is the only important source of energy in the mountainous region of the Garhwal Himalaya, India. Since the commercial source of energy is generally beyond the reach of ordinary people due to their poor socio-economic conditions and due to limited supply and lack of communication facilities for transport of LPG, the villages of the inner region of the Garhwal Himalaya depend on their fuel requirement from the forest. In the present study, two villages of the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve in Uttarakhand part of the Indian Himalaya i.e. Lata and Dunagiri located at 2,415 and 3,600 m altitudes, respectively, were selected for the study of socio-economic profile and vegetation and for estimation of per capita fuelwood consumption and the degree of disturbance. The study was conducted from 2002–2005. The population of these villages is migratory and belongs to the Bhotiya community, a scheduled tribe consisting of two subgroups known as Tolcha and Marchha. They grow traditional crops as well as cash crops. Important tree species used for fuelwood include Cedrus deodara, Pinus wallichiana, Cupressus torulosa, Taxus wallichiana, Acer indicum, Quercus dilatata and Viburnum cotinifolium. Maximum density among trees was shown by Pinus wallichiana (169.6 trees ha⁻¹) in village Lata and by Cedrus deodara (89.6 trees ha⁻¹) in village Dunagiri. The average per capita consumption of fuelwood in villages Lata and Dunagiri was 4.03 and 4.77 kg capita⁻¹ day⁻¹. Maximum number of trees (29 and 31% lopping for Lata and Dunagiri, respectively) belonged to disturbance class 1 (1–20% lopping) followed by the disturbance class 2 (20–40% lopping). Due to location of these villages in the buffer zone of the biosphere reserve, the fuelwood consumption may cause an adverse impact on the ecological status of this reserve, which urgently requires employing strategies for the conservation and management of this biosphere in terms of fuelwood sustainability e.g. regulation of livestock stock and grazing, using alternative sources of fuels, plantation of multipurpose trees and adoption of ecotourism.     

Forest plantations, water availability, and regional climate change: controversies surrounding Acacia mearnsii plantations in the upper Palnis Hills, southern India

Plantation forests not only impact carbon and water cycles, but also affect biodiversity, livelihoods, and shape regional economies. Each of these impacts differs across varying scales of analysis. This paper illustrates how forest, climate change and hydrology debates play out in the context of the forest plantations of Australian black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) in the upper Palni hills of southern India. We outline the contradictory perspectives of different local groups regarding the impact of plantations on catchment hydrology and water availability, and examine these in relation to changes in the regional economy and rainfall patterns. Our analysis indicates that changes in these two factors have played a more significant role than existing wattle plantations in affecting local and regional water availability. We suggest that ongoing debates regarding forest plantation–hydrology–climate change relationships need to broaden their scope to include changes in regional rainfall patterns and shifts in regional economic activity. This approach is likely to provide a more realistic assessment of plantation forests in a dynamic regional context, and offer more resilient strategies for regional landscape and catchment management under conditions of high variability in rainfall patterns.     

Land-cover changes and recent hydrological evolution in the Duero Basin (Spain)

Land-use and land-cover changes have attracted substantial scientific interest in recent years because of their marked influence on hydrological cycles. In developed countries of the Mediterranean basin, the generalized revegetation and forest growth in mountainous areas that occurred during the last five decades are negatively affecting the evolution of water resources in headwaters. In this study, changes in land cover in the Duero River Basin (northern Spain) during the last 50 years were analyzed and their role in hydrological evolution was estimated. For this purpose, step-wise linear regressions were developed to estimate the evolution of runoff as a function of climate (precipitation and temperatures). The results show a significant expansion of forest cover in the headwaters, although it has been more extensive in the mountains to the north of the basin than to the south. River discharges in the headwaters underwent a generalized decline during the study period (1961–2006), but precipitation over the same period did not show an appreciable trend. In the absence of noticeable trends in removal of water for human consumption, our results indicate that revegetation is contributing to the observed hydrological decline. Our hypothesis is confirmed because of the greater divergence in the evolution of precipitation and runoff in the northern headwaters (more forest growth) than in the south headwaters (less forest growth). Results suggest that further increases in forest area will enhance hydrological decline and highlight the importance of integrating land-cover information in water availability assessments in a region where water is a strategic resource.     

The role of remittances and decentralization of forest management in the sustainability of a municipal-communal pine forest in eastern Guatemala

At the national scale, forest cover in Guatemala declined at an annual rate of 1.2% during the past quarter century because of settlement that removed primary forests in the northern region of the country; however, the majority of the population of Guatemala still resides in the densely populated central highlands and has extracted timber and fuelwood from adjacent forests for centuries. Using baseline data recorded in 1987 and 1996, this article reexamined the sustainability of a municipal-communal pine forest in San José La Arada, a municipality in eastern Guatemala. The pine forest declined from the period 1987 to 1996 because of overextraction of timber and fuelwood. Forest structure and forest use were reexamined from the period 1996 to 2007 to test the hypothesis that the forest continued to decline. Forest characteristics such as stand density, basal area, tree height, and evidence of forest use were measured to replicate the procedures from previous work at the study area. To understand changes in forest structure and forest use in the context of the rise in remittances and the introduction of decentralized forest governance that emerged since 1996, a household survey was conducted in two adjacent villages. Forest structure improved from 1996 to 2007. From 1996 to 2007, forest characteristics such as stand density, basal area, tree height, and forest regeneration improved and evidence of forest use decreased in the municipal-communal pine forest. The influence of large amounts of remittances from the United States and other regions of Guatemala to households in the adjacent villages and the decentralization of forest governance largely explains the shift toward forest sustainability in San José La Arada.     

湖南省碳源与碳汇变化的时序分析

在全球气候变暖的背景下,减少温室气体排放、发展低碳经济成为各地区在发展中的普遍共识。以湖南省为研究区域,以1995~2008年为研究时序,从能源消费、主要工业产品生产工艺过程、土地利用变化与牲畜管理、固体废弃物处理与废水处理和排放4个方面综合分析了碳源与碳汇的变化情况。研究表明:1995~2008年,湖南省温室气体排放总量约在220亿t（2000年）至399亿t（2008年）CO2当量之间,14 a间增长了6118%,年均增长374%;碳汇总量约在1754亿t（1995年）至2537亿t（2007年）CO2当量之间,14 a间增长了3607%,年均增长约240%;能源消费与农业部门是湖南省温室气体的主要来源,林地是湖南省碳汇的主要来源;综合碳源与碳汇变化的均衡结果,1995~2008年湖南省呈碳汇盈余状态,净碳汇在2001~2007年持续增加,14 a间增长了31.94%,年均增长2.15%     

中国2020年碳减排目标下若干关键经济指标研究

《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》将能源消耗强度和CO2排放强度作为约束性指标。实现2020年单位GDP碳排放强度下降40-45%的自主减排目标是中国今后发展的战略性任务。"十一五"期间,中国以能源消费年均6.6%的增速支撑了国民经济年均11.2%的增长,累计节能量达到6.3亿t标煤,CO2减排量达到14.6亿t,为全球应对气候变化做出了积极贡献。但单位GDP的能耗强度和碳强度下降与温室气体排放总量的上升还将是中国当前和未来很长时期温室气体排放的主要特征。根据历史数据分析,GDP增长、经济结构、产业结构、能源结构等都会对中国的碳减排产生重要影响。GDP增速高必然呈现高能耗、高排放的特征。经济结构方面,影响能耗和碳排放的是GDP(最终需求)的组成变化,即消费、投资和净出口的变化。由于第二产业在国民经济中所占的较大比重以及重化工产业长期存在,除了继续依靠技术进步提高能源使用效率外,必须重视产业结构调整对降低碳排放强度的贡献。能源结构对节能和碳减排的影响集中体现在资源禀赋不平衡、供需分布不平衡、消费种类不平衡。文章提出实现碳减排目标,必须控制和达到以下关键指标:控制GDP增速在6-8%之间;调整出口结构,提升服务贸易比重至30%左右;提高第三产业比例至47%以上,控制高能耗工业比重在22%以下;提高非化石能源比重至15%。此外,实现碳减排目标还必须:充分认识碳减排对转方式、调结构的重要意义;切实加强对不同区域碳减排工作的分类指导;提前部署重大低碳技术和重点领域技术研发;大力倡导绿色低碳消费和生活方式等。研究表明,中国实现2020年CO2自主减排目标还需付出更大的努力。     

三峡库区森林植被恢复与可持续经营研究

系统的野外调查数据和历史资料分析结果表明,三峡库区森林植被在空间上发展不均匀,无明显垂直分带,且分布分散,人为干扰严重。目前,在70多个植被类型中,森林类型占25个,江岸两侧海拔800 m以下地区森林已经很少。森林类型中,马尾松、柏木林的分布面积最大,并在许多疏林中成为主要树种,主要是飞播或人工种植。库区大于25°的坡耕地占耕地面积的17.5％。库区薪炭林仅能满足农村用能总需求量的10.78％。不合理的土地利用方式和对森林的不合理砍伐导致脆弱的土壤系统和森林生态系统的严重退化、生产力下降和严重的水土流失。库区土壤年侵蚀量达到2.9亿t。三峡工程建设和移民安置对库区森林生态系统的压力和影响将是长期的。调查结果同时表明,库区植物生物多样性丰富,植物种类在5 032种以上,而且乡土树种多。分析认为,只要抓住三峡工程建设的契机,紧密结合国家天然林保护和退耕还林工程建设,充分利用良好的生物学基础,科学地封山育林,分带逐步恢复,同时,因地制宜,退耕还林,发展森林能源,建设多目标复合和多种模式并存的林业经营体系,发展经济,就能从根本上改善森林经营环境,实现森林恢复,形成合理布局的水库森林防护系统,促进三峡库区生态环境建设和可持续发展。     

Characteristics and drivers of forest cover change in the post-socialist era in Croatia: evidence from a mixed-methods approach

Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism.     

Analysis of material stock accumulation in China’s infrastructure and its regional disparity

Materials stocked in infrastructure provide necessary personal and economic services, and are also closely linked with massive resource extraction, energy consumption and waste generation. To support policy deliberations toward regional harmony and sustainable development, this paper examines the temporal change during 1978–2008 and spatial patterns of ten types of materials stocked in four major infrastructures (residential buildings, roads, railways, and water pipelines) in 31 provinces in China, and diagnoses regional disparity and driving factors by Theil index and multivariable regression based on panel data. It was found that the total material stock has boomed to 42.5 billion tons in 2008, with its per capita level increased by nine times over that in 1978. Over 90 % of materials are concentrated in residential buildings and roads, and are spatially inclined to decrease from coastal regions to inland areas. Since China has shifted its strategy from an inclined to harmonious regional development, the overall inequality of per capita material stock has been changing toward equality with its scale contributed mainly by inter-regional inequality, and downward trend affected dominantly by intra-regional inequality. To balance the growth speed across regions meanwhile, to develop economy and attract foreign investment in each region, would be a promising route towards reducing regional inequality. Moreover, the enhancement of governmental performance and construction of each sector’s share would also be effective for decreasing inter-regional gaps.     

能源价格变动对中国节能降耗的影响效应

在分析我国能源比价扭曲对能耗强度影响效应的基础上,建立了Bayesian时变动态回归模型,测算了能源价格变动对能耗的影响效果及变动趋势。主要结论为:①能源比价关系的调整比单种能源价格的国际接轨更为重要。相比国际市场的能源比价结构,中国能源商品价格结构的扭曲度提高了中国的能耗强度,促进了第二产业的增长。②能源价格的变动对单位GDP能耗的影响效应具有显著的时变特征。在电力、煤炭、石油三种能源中,电力价格的变动对能耗强度的影响最大。电力价格变化对单位GDP能耗的影响边际效应在逐年下降,但节能的效果仍很显著。煤电价格联动制约及"从量计征"的资源税偏低使得煤炭价格的上涨反而加大了能耗强度,且1996年以来煤炭价格的提高对单位GDP能耗上升的影响效应还在不断加强,原油价格的提高对单位GDP能耗的影响在不同的时间段有不同的作用,但相对煤炭及电力价格来说,石油价格的影响效应最小。2002年以前石油价格的上升对能耗的上升起助推作用,2003年后石油价格的上升对能耗的上升起降低作用且强度逐年加大。     

Calculation and decomposition of regional household energy consumption in China: based on perspectives of urbanization and residents’ consumption

Demographic urbanization caused great changes in scale of residents’ consumption and residents’ lifestyle and then impacted changes of regional household energy consumption. This paper expanded Logarithmic Mean Decomposition Index method through introducing variables of urbanization and residential consumption into the model. It also analyzed the influences of six factors as energy structure, energy intensity, population scale, urbanization, residential consumption, and consumption inhibit on regional household energy consumption. Results showed that in 2003–2012, impact of urbanization on regional household energy consumption of Chinese three areas was significantly higher than population size. The “population gathered in eastern region” phenomenon caused eastern region getting the largest population scale effect. Driving force of residential consumption on regional household energy consumption was much higher than the other five effects. Due to the comparative advantage of residential consumption compared with government consumption, investment, and net export, the decrease of consumption ratio promoted the growth of regional household energy consumption. Energy intensity in Chinese three regions kept reducing in 2003–2012. The progress of energy utilization technology slowed the growth of regional household energy consumption, and energy intensity effect was most significant in the central region.     

Changes in the dry tropical forests in Central India with human use

Understanding changes in forest composition and structure is important to help formulate effective policies that promote future ability of forests to provide local livelihood needs, habitat and ecosystem services. This is particularly important in dry tropical forests that are ecologically different from other forests and are heavily used by local, forest-dependent residents. In this study, we identify biophysical, demographic and use factors associated with differences in species diversity, vegetation structure (abundance at different size classes), biomass and relative abundance of species across the Kanha–Pench landscape in Central India. We sampled vegetation in twenty transects across different human and livestock population densities and frequencies of use. We found that biomass, species diversity and vegetation (abundance at different size classes) are negatively associated with increasing population density, and species composition at different size classes is significantly different at higher frequencies of use at low population densities. Lack of difference in species composition at high population densities may be due to colonization and growth of individuals at some of these sites due to creation of new ecological niches and gaps at high human use. Relative abundance of species at different size classes also varies with frequency of use and population density. Results suggest that human use is altering relative abundance of species, which may change long-term forest composition and thus alter biomass and vegetation structure of the forest. We conclude that human use is an agent in altering long-term composition that can alter availability of tree species for local use and other ecosystem services.     

山东沿海防护林体系森林承载能力

本文试图从森林承载力的主要影响因素入手,通过人均消耗木材、薪柴、水果、干果等四个反映不同生活水平的指标,分析山东省沿海防护林体系的森林生产力及其与人口、经济社会发展的相关关系,预测山东沿海防护林体系不同时期、不同生活水平条件下的森林承载力,并探讨提高森林承载力的对策途径。     

武汉市劳动力转移的环境效应分析

改革开放以来,农村劳动力被大量释放到城市,这部分劳动力在促进国民经济快速发展的同时,也对城市的生态环境产生了一定的影响。尤其是在城市常住人口不断增加、污染日益恶化的发展背景下,从劳动力转移的视角分析其生态环境效应具有重要价值和现实意义。通过利用武汉市转移人口调查数据,采用碳足迹分析方法从生产和消费两个方面研究外来劳动力对武汉市的环境影响,并进一步探究劳动力迁入前后的碳足迹差异及影响因素。结果表明,外来劳动力对武汉市的环境压力为1 768.53万t碳足迹,其中消费碳足迹194.72万t,生产碳足迹1 573.81万t;与迁入前相比,分别增加了45.58和1 439.41万t碳当量。这种碳足迹差异主要受到劳动力性别、年龄、非农工作时间和技术水平的影响,其中性别和年龄与碳足迹差异具有显著的负相关关系,而非农工作时间和技术水平具有正向影响。此外,劳动合同的签订及与当地居民语言交流的困难程度也增加了转移前后的碳足迹差异。