ESTIMATION OF WATER TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES USING THERMO-HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A continuous simulation approach is proposed for estimating water temperature exceedance probabilities using thermo-hydrodynamic modeling. The approach uses (1) a deterministic unsteady flow and heat transport model, (2) continuous hydrological and meteorological data for a long historical period, and (3) synthetic records of tributary water temperatures and other model inputs. Representative historical records of streamflow, air temperatures, and other hydrometeorological variables are obtained from nearby gages. Stochastic modeling methods are used to construct synthetic records for other model inputs, including inflow water temperatures. An application of this deterministic-stochastic approach is presented for a complex waterway in northeastern Illinois with heat discharges from several power plants and wastewater treatment plants. Statistical results from the continuous simulations are compared to results obtained from traditional event simulations. The application illustrates the information that engineers and biologists can obtain for (1) evaluating compliance with water temperature standards, and (2) assessing the effect of water temperatures on aquatic habitat.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE CORRELATIONS WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN MINNESOTA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE WARMING1

ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as easy substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this substitution, linear relationships between 39 Minnesota stream water temperature records and associated air temperature records were analyzed. From the lumped data set (38,082 daily data pairs), equations were derived for daily, weekly, monthly, and annual mean temperatures. Standard deviations between all measured and predicted water temperatures were 3.5°C (daily), 2.6°C (weekly), 1.9°C (monthly), and 1.3°C (annual). Separate analyses for each stream gaging station gave substantially lower standard deviations. Weather monitoring stations were, on average, 37.5 km from the stream. The measured water temperatures follow the annual air temperature cycle closely. No time lags were taken into account, and periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis. If atmospheric CO₂ doubles in the future, air temperatures in Minnesota are projected (CCC GCM) to rise by 4.3°C in the warm season (April-October). This would translate into an average 4.1°C stream temperature rise, provided that stream shading would remain unaltered.     

Identifying stream temperature variation by coupling meteorological,hydrological, and water temperature models

In this study, we demonstrate a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model known as the River Basin Model (RBM) coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model and Weather Research & Forecasting Model in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The results of this coupling compare favorably with observed water temperature data available from six river gages located in the MRB. Further sensitivity analysis indicates that the mean water temperatures may increase by 1.3, 1.5, and 1.8°C in northern, central, and southern MRB zones under a hypothetical uniform air temperature increase of 3.0°C. If air temperatures increase uniformly by 6.0°C in this scenario, then water temperatures are projected to increase by 3.3, 3.5, and 4.0°C. Lastly, downscaled air temperatures from a global climate model are used to drive the coupled VIC and RBM model from 2020 to 2099. Average stream temperatures from 2020 to 2099 increase by 1.0 to 8.0°C above 1950 to 2010 average water temperatures, with non-uniform increases along the river. In some portions of the MRB, stream temperatures could increase above survival thresholds for several native fish species, which are critical components of the stream ecosystem. In addition, increased water temperatures interact with nutrient loadings from sources throughout the MRB, which is expected to exacerbate harmful algal blooms and dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico.     

ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF LONG-TERM STREAM TEMPERATURES ON THE STEAMBOAT CREEK BASIN,OREGON: IMPLICATIONS FOR LAND USE AND FISH HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long-term effect of clear-cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty-year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time-series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water-temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground-water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre-1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.     

SUPPLEMENTATION OF MISSING VALUES IN WATER QUALITY DATA1

ABSTRACT The problem of estimating missing values in water quality data using linear interpolation and harmonic analysis is studied to see which one of these two methods yields better estimates for the missing values. The data used in this study consisted of midnight values of dissolved oxygen from the Ohio River collected over a period of one year at Stratton station. Various hypothetical cases of missing data are considered and the two methods of supplementing missing values are evaluated using statistical tests. The results indicate that when the percentage of missed data points exceeded ten percent of the total number in the original sample, harmonic analysis usually yielded better estimates for both the regularly and irregularly missed cases. For data that exhibit cyclic variation, examples of which are dissolved oxygen concentration and water temperature, harmonic analysis as a data generation technique appears to be superior to linear interpolation.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE INCREASES AND LAND USE IN A FORESTED OREGON WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Salmon Creek Watershed drains 325 km² of forested terrain in the Cascade Mountains of western Oregon. Over a 30–year period (from 1955 to 1984) average daily maximum and minimum stream temperatures, calculated from the 10 warmest days of each year, have risen 6°C and 2°C, respectively. In contrast, a small decrease in maximum air temperatures was found over the same period. Regression analysis indicated a highly significant (p < 0.01) relationship between a cumulative index of forest harvesting and maximum stream temperatures. Maximum temperatures also tended to increase for several years following major peak flow events. The interaction between harvest activity (logging and road construction), changing forest and riparian management practices and the occurrence of natural hydrologic events (peak flows and associated mass soil movements) tend to obscure specific cause-and-effect relationships regarding long-term changes in maximum stream temperature.     

Management and Limnology Interact to Drive Water Temperature Patterns in a Middle Rockies River‐Reservoir System

This study seeks to improve understanding of temperature patterns in reservoir outflows. We examined water temperatures in an irrigation storage reservoir, Island Park Reservoir, and its outflow, Henry’s Fork of the Snake River in eastern Idaho. Our objectives were to (1) quantify the extent to which daily temperature ranges in the reservoir outflow deviated from other reaches of the Henry’s Fork, and (2) test whether the reservoir’s net volume change during the summer — expressed as the volume of water remaining in the reservoir on September 1 — predicted mean summer temperature in the outflow. Two years of temperature data showed dampened diel temperature cycles in the reservoir outflow. Model selection with 17 years of climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir management variables found mean summer temperature in the outflow was best predicted by September 1 reservoir volume and average summer air temperature. Two years of weekly reservoir thermal profiles indicated large changes in reservoir volume eliminated cool hypolimnetic water and encouraged mixing, allowing warm epilimnetic water to be discharged into the outflow. Increases in future drought frequency and severity and increases in summer air temperatures could increase the frequency of occurrence of high mean summertime water temperatures in the outflow. Our study provides important information for local managers by quantifying influences on outflow temperatures and the downstream river ecosystem.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).     

Effect of Climate Warming and Drought on Urban Stream Temperatures in a Semiarid,Seasonal System

Stream temperatures are key indicators for aquatic ecosystem health, and are of particular concern in highly seasonal, water‐limited regions such as California that provide sensitive habitat for cold‐water species. Yet in many of these critical regions, the combined impacts of a warmer climate and urbanization on stream temperatures have not been systematically studied. We examined recent changes in air temperature and precipitation, including during the recent extreme drought, and compared the stream temperature responses of urban and nonurban streams under four climatic conditions and the 2008–2018 period. Metrics included changes in the magnitude and timing of stream temperatures, and the frequency of exceedance of ecologically relevant thresholds. Our results showed that minimum and average daily air temperatures in the region have increased by >1°C over the past 20 years, warming both urban and nonurban streams. Stream temperatures under drought warmed most (1°C–2°C) in late spring and early fall, effectively lengthening the summer warm season. The frequency of occurrence of periods of elevated stream temperatures was greater during warm climate conditions for both urban and nonurban streams, but urban streams experienced extreme conditions 1.5–2 times as often as nonurban streams. Our findings underscore that systematically monitoring and managing urban stream temperatures under climate change and drought is critically needed for seasonal, water‐limited urban systems.     

PUMP SYSTEM FOR IMPROVING RUNOFF RECORDS DURING WINTER1

ABSTRACT: Freezing winter temperatures can cause icing of outdoor weirs used to measure surface runoff. Ice typically forms in the notch and on the crests of short-crested V-notch weirs, causing incorrect gage heights to be measured. A method for reducing the effects of ice formation on weirs and weir pools using a pump is presented and evaluated. Warmer water from the bottom of the weir pool is pumped to the surface, reducing the opportunity for the water surface to freeze. The pump is shown to work except under extremely cold conditions, improving runoff records from 27 percent to 60 percent. The pump system has no practical effect on measured gage height. Frequency distributions of flow rates and air temperatures under measured ice-free and other weir conditions are presented. Suggestions for use of the pump system under temperature conditions other than those in this study are given.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION FROM AIR TEMPERATURE1

ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this procedure, linear relationships between stream temperatures, T, and air temperatures, T_a, recorded for 11 streams in the central U.S. (Mississippi River basin) were analyzed. Weather stations were an average 42 miles (range 0 to 144 miles) from the rivers. The general equations, T_w= 5.0 + 0.75 T_a and T_w= 2.9 + 0.86 T_a with temperatures in °C, were derived for daily and weekly water temperatures, respectively, for the 11 streams studied. The simulations had a standard deviation between measurements and predictions of 2.7°C (daily) and 2.1°C (weekly). Equations derived for each specific stream individually gave lower standard deviations, i.e., 2.1°C and 1.4°C, respectively. Small, shallow streams had smaller deviations than large, deep rivers. The measured water temperatures follow the air temperatures closely with some time lag. time lags ranged from hours to days, increasing with stream depth. Taking into account these time lags improved the daily temperature predictions slightly. Periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis.     

RIPARIAN MICROCLIMATE AND STREAM TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO FOREST HARVESTING: A REVIEW1

Forest harvesting can increase solar radiation in the riparian zone as well as wind speed and exposure to air advected from clearings, typically causing increases in summertime air, soil, and stream temperatures and decreases in relative humidity. Stream temperature increases following forest harvesting are primarily controlled by changes in insolation but also depend on stream hydrology and channel morphology. Stream temperatures recovered to pre‐harvest levels within 10 years in many studies but took longer in others. Leaving riparian buffers can decrease the magnitude of stream temperature increases and changes to riparian microclimate, but substantial warming has been observed for streams within both unthinned and partial retention buffers. A range of studies has demonstrated that streams may or may not cool after flowing from clearings into shaded environments, and further research is required in relation to the factors controlling downstream cooling. Further research is also required on riparian microclimate and its responses to harvesting, the influences of surface/subsurface water exchange on stream and bed temperature regimes, biological implications of temperature changes in headwater streams (both on site and downstream), and methods for quantifying shade and its influence on radiation inputs to streams and riparian zones.     

Modeling the Effect of Summertime Heating on Urban Runoff Temperature1

Abstract: The summertime heating of runoff in urban areas is recognized as a common and consistent urban climatological phenomenon. In this study, a simple thermal urban runoff model (TURM) is presented for the net energy flux at the impervious surfaces of urban areas to account for the heat transferred to runoff. The first step in developing TURM consists of calculating the various factors that control how urban impervious areas absorb heat and transfer it to moving water on the surface. The runoff temperature is determined based on the interactions of the physical characteristics of the impervious areas, the weather, and the heat transfer between the moving film of runoff and the impervious surface common in urban areas. Key surface and weather factors that affect runoff temperature predictions are type of impervious surface, air temperature, humidity, solar radiation before and during rain, rainfall intensity, and rainfall temperature. Runoff from pervious areas is considered separately and estimated using the Green‐Ampt Mein‐Larson rainfall excess method. Pervious runoff temperature is estimated as the rainfall temperature. Field measurements indicate that wet bulb temperature can be used as a surrogate for rainfall temperature and that runoff temperatures from sod average just 2°C higher than rainfall temperatures. Differences between measured and predicted impervious runoff temperature average approximately 2°C, indicating that TURM is a useful tool for determining runoff temperatures for typical urban areas.     

Geostatistical spatiotemporal analysis of air temperature as an aid to delineating thermal stability zones in a potential show cave: implications for environmental management

Air temperature in several galleries of the Covadura System (Sorbas Gypsum Karst, Almería) was measured at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year. The spatial temperature distribution for each month was modeled in a geostatistical framework. The mean trend of the air temperature and the difference between each experimental temperature measurement and this trend were calculated over space and time. Both the trend and residual component were characterized using a geostatistical space-time model. A large spatial trend of the air temperature was found due to the orientation of galleries within the cave system and as a function of the distance from the main cave entrance. Kriging was used for the spatial estimation of the time covariance of the residuals. This enabled the delimitation of the cave into three zones of varying environmental risk in the event of being opened to visits by the public, according to the degree of stability of air temperature over space and time. The influence of human presence on the spatial temperature distribution was assessed using data collected during a year (2000/2001) in pilot galleries opened to the public. An average visit corresponding to August was selected comprising 16 people over a period of 53 min. This average visit influenced the spatial temperature pattern at distances of more than 90 m from the cave entrance, according to the geostatistical model adopted. Within this zone the mean thermal increment generated by human presence was estimated to be 0.26 degrees C. The spatiotemporal mathematical model of the cave air temperature has been revealed as a useful tool for the environmental management of show caves.     

A STUDY OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE CANBERRA AREA AND THE QUEANBEYAN RIVER WATERSHED (GOOGONG DAM CATCHMENT)1

Data provided by the Australian Commonwealth Bureaus of Meteorology and Mineral Resources are used in this water budget study of the Queanbeyan River watershed. Air and soil temperatures show close correlation from month to month during the five-year period. A close parallel also exists for the air temperature values and the seasonal variations in the Nett-Moisture (rainfall minus evaporation) plots. Ground-water levels appear to be influenced by drought periods and by under groundwater storage conditions such as “nick-points” in the sub-surface migration conditions. The groundwater levels were unusually high early in the drought year of 1964-65. The annual rainfall totals for 1962, 1963, and 1966 were all exceeded by the evaporation totals. In 1964 and in 1965 (the drought year) the evaporation total exceeded the rainfall total. The minimum annual water discharge values for the Queanbeyan River ranged from 4.9″ in 1963 to 1.4′ in 1965.     

Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring,Remote Sensing,and Modeling1

Arp, C.D., B.M. Jones, M. Whitman, A. Larsen, and F.E. Urban, 2010. Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring, Remote Sensing, and Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 777-791. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00451.x Abstract: Lake surface regimes are fundamental attributes of lake ecosystems and their interaction with the land and atmosphere. High latitudes may be particularly sensitive to climate change, however, adequate baselines for these lakes are often lacking. In this study, we couple monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling techniques to generate baseline datasets of lake surface temperature and ice cover in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic. No detectable trends were observed during this study period, but a number of interesting patterns were noted among lakes and between regions. The largest Arctic lake was relatively unresponsive to air temperature, while the largest Subarctic lake was very responsive likely because it is fed by glacial runoff. Mean late summer water temperatures were higher than air temperatures with differences ranging from 1.7 to 5.4°C in Subarctic lakes and from 2.4 to 3.2°C in Arctic lakes. The warmest mean summer water temperature in both regions was in 2004, with the exception of Subarctic glacially fed lake that was highest in 2005. Ice-out timing had high coherence within regions and years, typically occurring in late May in Subarctic and in early-July in Arctic lakes. Ice-on timing was more dependent on lake size and depth, often varying among lakes within a region. Such analyses provide an important baseline of lake surface regimes at a time when there is increasing interest in high-latitude water ecosystems and resources during an uncertain climate future.     

CLIMATIC AND HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY IN A COASTAL WATERSHED OF SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: Climate data from the Malcolm Knapp Research Forest (MKRF) in the Coast Range mountains of southwestern British Columbia were used to examine relationships between climate and hydrology and variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Air and water temperatures were higher and precipitation was lower during in‐phase or warm PDO/E1 Niño events than in other years. In contrast, in‐phase or cool PDO/La Niña years were generally cooler and wetter than other years. Precipitation and East Creek discharge were positively related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and negatively related to the PDO index. Conversely, air and water temperatures were negatively related to the SOI and positively related to the PDO index. Differences in precipitation and air temperature were also evident at longer time scales when separated by PDO phase. Because of drier conditions during in‐phase El Niño events, the flow of organic matter from East Creek to downstream portions of the channel network was lower compared to other years. This reduction has implications for downstream communities, as these subsidies provide a major source of energy for stream food webs. Therefore, short term and long term shifts in climate, discharge, and water temperature may have profound impacts on the ecology of Pacific Northwest (PNW) watersheds due to changes in a number of ecosystem processes such as altered flux of organic matter from headwater streams to larger rivers.     

LAKE HURON SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE MAY – NOVEMBER, 19661

ABSTRACT. Data from seven vessel cruises from late May to early November permitted definition of the surface water temperature regime of Lake Huron on a monthly basis. Quantitative values are furnished for a portion of the warming, stable, and cooling periods. The lowest temperatures occurred near the center of the lake, southwest of Manitoulin Island, and at De Tour Passage. The highest temperatures occurred at the mouth of Saginaw Bay and in the southernmost portions of the lake. Comparison of the surface water temperatures with temperatures in the 21 - 30 m layer shows the heat storage lag characteristic of large lakes.     

ERRORS RELATED TO RANDOM STREAM TEMPERATURE DATA COLLECTION IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Records of hourly water temperatures for two streams in the Upper Mississippi River basin were used to find the error between instantaneous measurements of stream water temperatures and true daily averages. The instantaneous summer water temperature measurements were assumed to be collected during daylight hours, and measurement times were selected randomly. The absolute error at the 95 percent confidence level of randomly collected stream water temperatures was less than 0.9°C for a 1 to 5m deep large river, but as large as 3.6°C for a 0.3 to lm deep small stream. Temperature readings of morning samples were usually below daily average values, and afternoon readings were usually above. Daily mean water temperatures were obtained with less than 0.23°C standard deviation from true daily averages if the daily maximum and minimum water temperatures were averaged. Sample results were obtained for the open water (summer) season only, since diurnal water temperature fluctuations in ice covered streams are usually negligible.     

COMPARISON OF METHODS TO ESTIMATE DEEP PERCOLATION RATES1

ABSTRACT: Deep percolation rates are normally estimated from a water balance. Results are presented of a study undertaken to evaluate three alternative methods of estimating percolation below the root zone when knowledge about the history of applied water and evapotranspiration are not available. The alternative methods are: 1) use of Darcy's equation to calculate deep percolation rate; 2) measurement of the soil temperature prof and calculation of the deep percolation rate from the shape of the temperature depth curve; and 3) measurement of the tritium concentration in the soil water and its relationship to the history of the tritium concentration in rainfall. At the principal study site, the Darcy velocity of flow ranged from 9 cm per year determined by the temperature method, to 40 cm per year determined by the tritium method. Darcy's equation to calculate seepage rates resulted in an estimation of deep seepage of 18 cm per year. An average deep percolation rate at the principal study site of 22 cm per year was determined using the average of all three methods. Results for other sites based on the temperature method indicated a lower seepage rate.