Estimating historical anthropogenic global sulfur emission patterns for the period 1850–1990

It is important to establish a reliable regional emission inventory of sulfur as a function of time when assessing the possible effects of global change and acid rain. This study developed a database of annual estimates of national sulfur emissions from 1850 to 1990. A common methodology was applied across all years and countries allowing for global totals to be produced by adding estimates from all countries. The consistent approach facilitates the modification of the database and the observation of changes at national, regional, or global levels. The emission estimates were based on net production (i.e., production plus imports minus exports), sulfur content, and sulfur retention for each country's production activities. Because the emission estimates were based on the above considerations, our database offers an opportunity to independently compare our results with those estimates based on individual country estimates. Fine temporal resolution clearly shows emission changes associated with specific historical events (e.g., wars, depressions, etc.) on a regional, national, or global basis. The spatial pattern of emissions shows that the US, the USSR, and China were the main sulfur emitters (i.e., approximately 50% of the total) in the world in 1990. The USSR and the US appear to have stabilized their sulfur emissions over the past 20 yr, and the recent increases in global sulfur emissions are linked to the rapid increases in emissions from China. Sulfur emissions have been reduced in some cases by switching from high- to low-sulfur coals. Flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has apparently made important contributions to emission reductions in only a few countries, such as Germany.     

Estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions 1860–1993

This paper provides the first time series estimates of global anthropogenic methane emissions from the mid-19th century to the present. Our purpose is to provide time series estimates of anthropogenic methane emissions for global climate models estimated or calibrated using historical time series data. Previous estimates of methane emissions include “top-down” (deconvolution) estimates of total emissions, estimates of global anthropogenic emissions for the 16th century, and various estimates of anthropogenic and natural emissions in the 1980s and 1990s. This study uses previously published point estimates for the 16th century and the 1980s and early 1990s and a variety of historical time series of proxy variables to estimate a time series of global anthropogenic methane emissions. We find that anthropogenic methane emissions have increased from about 80 million tonnes per annum in 1860 to about 380 million tonnes in 1990. The relative importance of various emission sources changes over time. The rate of increase now may be slowing. A comparison with the estimates generated by Khalil and Rasmussen suggests that natural sources of methane have declined over the period. There are, however, great uncertainties in these estimates which future research may be able to reduce.     

Simulation of the tropospheric distribution of carbon monoxide during the 1984 MAPS experiment

A global, three-dimensional tropospheric chemistry model was used to perform simulations of the tropospheric distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) coinciding with NASA's Measurement of Air Pollution from Satellites (MAPS) experiment which took place during 5–13 October 1984. Archived meteorological data for September and October, 1984, were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting and used to drive the offline chemical transport model simulations. Base-case CO emissions were generated by applying emission factors to compiled inventories for related or co-emitted trace species. Simulation results from September and October have been compared with a recent re-release of the 1984 MAPS data and with in situ correlative data taken during the MAPS mission. Because of unrealistically large spatial variability in N₂O mixing ratios measured concurrently by MAPS, model results were also compared with an adjusted CO data set generated by assuming that errors in N₂O measured mixing ratios were correlated with errors in the MAPS CO data. These comparisons, in conjunction with simulations probing model sensitivities, led to the conclusion that biomass burning CO emissions from central and southern Africa may have been larger during September and October, 1984, than our initial best estimate based on the CO₂ emissions data of Hao et al. (1990. Fire in the Tropical Biota; Ecosystem Processes and Global Challenges. Springer, Berlin, pp. 440–462; 1994. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 8, 495–503). This result is in disagreement with recent estimates of biomass burning emissions from Africa (Scholes et al., 1996, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 23677–23682) which are smaller than previously thought for emissions from this region. Although unknown model deficiencies cannot be conclusively ruled out, model sensitivity studies indicate that increased CO emissions from central and southern Africa offer the best explanation for reducing observed differences between model results and MAPS data for this time period. Our results, in combination with a disparity in recent CO emission estimates from this region (Scholes et al., 1996; Hao et al., 1996, Journal of Geophysical Research 101, 23577–23584), and in light of recent indications of highly variable biomass burning activities from the tropical western Pacific (Folkins et al., 1997, Journal of Geophysical Research 102, 13291–13299), seem to suggest that biomass burning emissions exhibit significant year-to-year variability. This large variability of emissions sources makes the accurate simulation of specific time periods very difficult and suggests that biomass burning trace species inventories may have to be developed specifically for each simulated time period, employing satellite-derived information on fire coverage and flame intensity.     

Emissions of persistent organic pollutants and eight candidate POPs from UNECE–Europe in 2000, 2010 and 2020 and the emission reduction resulting from the implementation of the UNECE POP protocol

An emission inventory for persistent organic pollutants (POP) is made for the year 2000 based on submissions of emission data from the Parties to the Convention on LRTAP. The inventory covers the UNECE territory except Canada and the United States. For the countries, sources or compounds lacking in official submissions, default emission estimates have been prepared and applied to complete the inventory. An indicative comparison of the year 2000 emissions with the 1990 emission levels from a previous study is presented as well as emission projections for 2010, 2015, 2020 based on activity scenarios developed in the framework of the EU CAFE programme. The key source analysis of the projected emissions assuming full implementation of the UNECE protocols allows identification of remaining source strengths which subsequently are briefly discussed in terms of their potential for (further) reduction. A number of chemicals are currently being investigated for inclusion on the UN/ECE POPs protocol list of priority compounds but for these substances emission estimation methodologies are scarce or non-existent. For eight of these substances (dicofol, edosulfan, hexachlorobutadiene (HBU), pentabromodiphenyl ether (PBDE), pentachlorobenzene (PCBe), pentachlorophenol (PCP), polychloronated naftalenes (PCN) and short chained chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs)) an emission estimation methodology is proposed and a preliminary emission inventory for the year 2000 is presented.     

Sulfur Dioxide Emissions and Market Effects under the Clean Air Act Acid Rain Program

ABSTRACT

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA90) established a national program to control sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from electricity generation. CAAA90's market-based approach includes trading and banking of Soumissions allowances. We analyzed data describing electric utility SO₂ emissions in 1995, the first year of the program's Phase I, and market effects over the 1990-1995 period. Fuel switching and flue-gas desulfurization were the dominant means used in 1995 by targeted generators to reduce emissions to 51% of 1990 levels. Flue-gas desulfur-ization costs, emissions allowance prices, low-sulfur coal prices, and average sulfur contents of coals shipped to electric utilities declined over the 1990-1995 period. Projections indicate that 13-15 million allowances will have been banked during the program's Phase I, which ends in 1999, a quantity expected to last through the first decade of the program's stricter Phase II controls. In 1995, both allowance prices and SO₂ emissions were below pre-CAAA90 expectations. The reduction of SO₂ emissions beyond pre-CAAA90 expectations, combined with lower-than-expected allowance prices and declining compliance costs, can be viewed as a success for market-based environmental controls.     

Estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emission from animal production sector in Taiwan during 1990-2000

To investigate the greenhouse gases emissions from the feeding and waste management of livestock and poultry, methane and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated from the local measurement and IPCC guidelines during 1990-2000 in Taiwan. Hog is the major livestock and is followed by goat and cattle, while chicken is the major poultry and is followed by duck and geese. Methane emission from enteric fermentation of livestock was 30.9 Gg in 1990, increased to 39.3 Gg in 1996, and then decreased gradually to 34.9 Gg in 2000. Methane emission from the waste management was 48.5 Gg in 1990, reached the peak value of 60.7 Gg in 1996, and then declined to 43.3 Gg in 2000. In the case of poultry, annual methane emission from enteric fermentation and waste management was 30.6-44.1 ton, and 8.7-13.2 Gg, respectively. Nitrous oxide emission from waste management of livestock was 0.78 ton in 1990, increased to 0.86 ton in 1996, and then decreased to 0.65 ton in 2000. Nitrous oxide emission from waste management of poultry was higher than that of livestock with 1.11 ton in 1990, 1.68 ton in 1999, and 1.65 ton in 2000. There is an urgent need to reduce methane emission from enteric fermentation and recover methane from anaerobic waste treatment for energy in livestock and poultry feeding in Taiwan.     

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.     

Global hexachlorobenzene emissions

Information from a variety of sources has been assembled to give a global picture of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) emissions in the mid 1990s. No single overwhelming source of HCB was identified. The best estimates of global HCB emissions from different categories of sources are as follows: pesticides application - 6500 kg/yr; manufacturing - 9500 kg/yr; combustion - 7000 kg/yr, includes 500 kg from biomass burning. This adds up to total current HCB emissions of approximately 23,000 kg/yr with an estimated range 12,000-92,000 kg/yr. A substantial portion of HCB measured in the atmosphere is thought to come from volatilization of "old" HCB on the soil from past contamination along with unidentified sources. No information on potential sources in developing countries was available.     

Anthropogenic NOx emissions in Asia in the period 1990–2020

Nitrogen oxides emissions in Asia during the period 1990–2020 due to anthropogenic activity are presented. These estimates are based on the RAINS-ASIA methodology (Foell et al., 1995, Acid Rain and Emission Reduction in Asia, World Bank), which includes a dynamic model for energy forecasts, and information on 6 energy sectors and 9 fuel types. The energy forecasts are combined with process emission factors to yield NO_x emission estimates at the country level, the regional level, and on a 1 degree by 1 degree grid. In 1990 the total NO_x emissions are estimated to be ∼19 Tg NO₂, with China (43%), India (18%) and Japan (13%) accounting for 75% of the total. Emissions by fuel are dominated by burning of hard coal and emissions by economic activity are dominated by the power, transport, and industrial sectors. These new estimates of NO_x emissions are compared with those published by Hameed and Dignon (1988, Atmospheric Environment 22, 441–449) and Akimoto and Narita (1994, Atmospheric Environment 28, 213–225). Future emissions under a no-further-control scenario are also presented. During the period 1990–2020 the NO_x emissions increase by 350%, to ∼86 Tg NO₂. The increase in NO_x emissions by sector and end-use varies between countries, but in all countries this increase is strongest in the power and transport sectors. These results highlight the dynamic nature of energy use in Asia, and the need to take the rapid growth in NO_x emissions in Asia into account in studies of air pollution and atmospheric chemistry.     

Quantification of sources of PCBs to the atmosphere in urban areas: A comparison of cities in North America, Western Europe and former Yugoslavia

We present estimated emission source strengths of seven polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners for Banja Luka, a city that was affected by the civil war in Bosnia and Hercegovina (former Yugoslavia) in the 1990s. These emission estimates are compared to PCB emission rates estimated for the cities of Zurich, Switzerland, and Chicago, USA using an approach that combines multimedia mass balance modeling and measurement data. Our modeled per-capita emission estimates for Banja Luka are lower by a factor of ten than those for Zurich and Chicago, which are similar. This indicates that the sources of PCB emissions in Banja Luka are likely to be weaker than in the Western European and North American cities which show relatively high PCB emissions. Our emission rates from the three cities agree within a factor of ten with emission estimates from a global PCB emission inventory derived from production and usage estimates and emission factors.     

Analysing the levels of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry activities on Annex I countries ability to meet Kyoto targets

This study analyses the 1990 and current Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions data from Annex I countries and assesses the impacts of LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) activities of countries in meeting their Kyoto targets. In a 'business-as-usual' scenario for the period 1990-2010, the total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF activities of Annex I Parties, would decrease by 3.7%, whilst a 6.1% decrease would be achieved if LULUCF activities were considered. Therefore, LULUC activities play a significant role in ensuring nations meet their Kyoto targets.     

Emissions from the copper–nickel industry on the Kola Peninsula and at Noril'sk,Russia

Published estimates for base metal emissions from the copper–nickel industry on the Kola Peninsula are re-examined in the light of (a) chemical data on the composition of the ores; (b) official emission figures for 1994; and (c) modelled emissions based on dry and wet deposition estimates derived from data for snow and rain samples collected in 1994. The modelled emissions, official emission figures and chemical data are mutually compatible for Ni, Cu and Co and show that previously published figures underestimated the emissions of the major elements, Ni and Cu (though within the same order of magnitude) and overestimated the emissions of As, Pb, Sb and Zn by up to several orders of magnitude, in some cases exceeding the calculated total input to the plants. Published estimates have neglected information on the nature and chemistry of the ores processed in metallurgical industries in the Noril'sk area of Siberia and the Urals. Revised emission estimates for 1994, using knowledge of the chemistry of the ores, are proposed: taken with published information on total emissions up to 2000 these data give an indication of emission levels in more recent years.     

Comparison of emissions estimates derived from atmospheric measurements with national estimates of HFCs,PFCs and SF6

This paper assesses the feasibility of using atmospheric measurement of fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6) for the review and verification of greenhouse gas inventories provided by national governments. For this purpose, available data were compiled. It was found that atmospheric measurements of these gases are available and provide an indication of global annual emissions with sufficient certainty to reach the following conclusions: Within the uncertainty of the method, it was found that emissions of HFC-23, a by-product of HCFC-22 production, as obtained from atmospheric measurements did not decrease as fast, as the countries have reported. In contrast, SF6 concentrations in the atmosphere suggest higher emissions than reported by countries. Regional emission estimates from atmospheric measurements are still in a more pioneering state and cannot be compared to national estimates. Intensified efforts to measure HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in the atmosphere are recommended.     

Radiative forcing from household fuel burning in Asia

Household fuel use in developing countries, particularly as biomass and coal, is a major source of carbonaceous aerosols and other air pollutants affecting health and climate. Using state-of-the-art emission inventories, a global three-dimensional photochemical tracer/transport model of the troposphere, and a global radiative transfer model based on methods presented in the latest IPCC Assessment Report (2007-AR4), we estimate the radiative forcing (RF) attributable to household fuel combustion in Asia in terms of current global annual-mean RF and future global integrated RF for a one-year pulse of emissions (2000) over two time horizons (100 and 20 years). Despite the significant emissions of black carbon (BC) aerosols, these estimates indicate that shorter-lived (non-Kyoto) air pollutants from household fuel use in the region overall seem to exert a small net negative RF because of the strong influence of reflective aerosols. There are, however, major uncertainties in emission estimates for solid fuel burning, and about the sustainability of household fuel wood harvesting in Asia (the carbon neutrality of harvesting). In addition, there is still substantial uncertainty associated with the BC radiative forcing. As a result we find that the sign of the RF from household biomass burning in the region cannot be established. While recognizing the value of integrating climate change and air pollution policies, we are concerned that for a ‘Kyoto style’ post-Kyoto treaty (with global cap-and-trade and the Global Warming Potential as the metric) expanding the basket of components with a selection of short-lived species without also including the wider range of co-emitted species may lead to unintended consequences for global-scale climate. Additional measurement, modelling, and policy research is urgently needed to reduce the uncertainties so that the net impact on climate of emissions and mitigation measures in this sector can be accurately assessed.     

Global emission of mercury to the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources in 2005 and projections to 2020

This paper presents the 2005 global inventory of anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere component of the work that was prepared by UNEP and AMAP as a contribution to the UNEP report Global Atmospheric Mercury Assessment: Sources, Emissions and Transport (UNEP Chemicals Branch, 2008).It describes the methodology applied to compile emissions data on the two main components of the inventory – the ‘by-product’ emissions and the ‘intentional use’ emissions – and to geospatially distribute these emissions estimates to produce a gridded dataset for use by modelers, and the results of this work.It also presents some initial results of work to develop (simplified) scenario emissions inventories for 2020 that can be used to investigate the possible implications of actions to reduce mercury emissions at the global scale.     

Global Emissions of Nitrogen and Sulfur Oxides from 1860 to 1980

Statistical models have been developed that relate the rate of emissions of a pollutant to the rate of fuel consumption. These relations may be used to estimate emissions in other regions, or at other times, if fuel consumption data are available. This approach has been used to estimate global emissions of nitrogen and sulfur oxides in fossil fuel combustion at ten year intervals from 1860 to 1980. Emissions from each of the populated continents, i.e., North America, South America, Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania from 1930 to 1980 are also presented. When averaged globally over the 1860 to 1980 period, sulfur emissions increased at the rate of 2.9 percent per year and the nitrogen emissions at the rate of 3.4 percent per year. The ratio of global sulfur emissions to nitrogen emissions has declined steadily; it was nearly 5 in the 19th century and became 3 by 1980. After the second world war, the most rapid increases in emissions have been registered in Asia, South America, and Africa.     

The history of methyl chloroform emissions: 1951–2000

A complete record of annual methyl chloroform production has been compiled by combining early estimates in the technical literature (1951–1976) with audited production data supplied by chemical manufacturers (1970–1996) and with production and consumption estimates provided by the countries party to the Montreal Protocol (1989 to the present). From this, a new and comprehensive estimate of annual emissions has been developed. However, when the atmospheric concentrations calculated from these annual emissions are compared with measured concentrations, there are significant discrepancies, particularly during recent years, that merit further examination.     

Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs

OBJECTIVES: This work assesses the contribution to climate change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated greenhouse gases. METHODS: A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated. RESULTS: The substances covered by this study have contributed emissions of 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 equivalents per year in 1996. In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents, this corresponds to 3 +/- 2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone. For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3% (870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2 eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$ 50 per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively.     

Global estimation of CO emissions using three sets of satellite data for burned area

Using three sets of satellite data for burned areas together with the tree cover imagery and a biogeochemical component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) the global emissions of CO and associated uncertainties are estimated for the year 2000. The available fuel load (AFL) is calculated using the ISAM biogeochemical model, which accounts for the aboveground and surface fuel removed by land clearing for croplands and pasturelands, as well as the influence on fuel load of various ecosystem processes (such as stomatal conductance, evapotranspiration, plant photosynthesis and respiration, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition) and important feedback mechanisms (such as climate and fertilization feedback mechanism). The ISAM estimated global total AFL in the year 2000 was about 687 Pg AFL. All forest ecosystems account for about 90% of the global total AFL. The estimated global CO emissions based on three global burned area satellite data sets (GLOBSCAR, GBA, and Global Fire Emissions Database version 2 (GFEDv2)) for the year 2000 ranges between 320 and 390 Tg CO. Emissions from open fires are highest in tropical Africa, primarily due to forest cutting and burning. The estimated overall uncertainty in global CO emission is about ±65%, with the highest uncertainty occurring in North Africa and Middle East region (±99%). The results of this study suggest that the uncertainties in the calculated emissions stem primarily from the area burned data.     

Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.