A Method to Consider Whether Dams Mitigate Climate Change Effects on Stream Temperatures

This article provides a method for examining mesoscale water quality objectives downstream of dams with anticipated climate change using a multimodel approach. Coldwater habitat for species such as trout and salmon has been reduced by water regulation, dam building, and land use change that alter stream temperatures. Climate change is an additional threat. Changing hydroclimatic conditions will likely impact water temperatures below dams and affect downstream ecology. We model reservoir thermal dynamics and release operations (assuming that operations remain unchanged through time) of hypothetical reservoirs of different sizes, elevations, and latitudes with climate‐forced inflow hydrologies to examine the potential to manage water temperatures for coldwater habitat. All models are one dimensional and operate on a weekly timestep. Results are presented as water temperature change from the historical time period and indicate that reservoirs release water that is cooler than upstream conditions, although the absolute temperatures of reaches below dams warm with climate change. Stream temperatures are sensitive to changes in reservoir volume, elevation, and latitude. Our approach is presented as a proof of concept study to evaluate reservoir regulation effects on stream temperatures and coldwater habitat with climate change.     

OPTIMAL CONTROL OF RESERVOIR RELEASES TO MINIMIZE SEDIMENTATION IN RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: An optimal control methodology and computational model are developed to evaluate multi‐reservoir release schedules that minimize sediment scour and deposition in rivers and reservoirs. The sedimentation problem is formulated within a discrete‐time optimal control framework in which reservoir releases represent control variables and reservoir bed elevations, storage levels, and river bed elevations represent state variables. Constraints imposed on reservoir storage levels and releases are accommodated using a penalty function method. The optimal control model consists of two interfaced components: a one‐dimensional finite‐difference simulation module used to evaluate flow hydraulics and sediment transport dynamics, and a successive approximation linear quadratic regulator (SALQR) optimization algorithm used to update reservoir release policies and solve the augmented control problem. Hypothetical two‐reservoir and five‐reservoir networks are used to demonstrate the methodology and its capabilities, which is a vital phase towards the development of a more robust optimal control model and application to an existing multiple‐reservoir river network.     

Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande1

Abudu, S., J.P. King, Z. Sheng, 2011. Comparison of the Performance of Statistical Models in Forecasting Monthly Total Dissolved Solids in the Rio Grande. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 10‐23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00587.x Abstract: This paper presents the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), transfer function‐noise (TFN), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) modeling approaches in forecasting monthly total dissolved solids (TDS) of water in the Rio Grande at El Paso, Texas. Predictability analysis was performed between the precipitation, temperature, streamflow rates at the site, releases from upstream reservoirs, and monthly TDS using cross‐correlation statistical tests. The chi‐square test results indicated that the average monthly temperature and precipitation did not show significant predictability on monthly TDS series. The performances of one‐ to three‐month‐ahead model forecasts for the testing period of 1984‐1994 showed that the TFN model that incorporated the streamflow rates at the site and Caballo Reservoir release improved monthly TDS forecasts slightly better than the ARIMA models. Except for one‐month‐ahead forecasts, the ANN models using the streamflow rates at the site as inputs resulted in no significant improvements over the TFN models at two‐month‐ahead and three‐month‐ahead forecasts. For three‐month‐ahead forecasts, the simple ARIMA showed similar performance compared to all other models. The results of this study suggested that simple deseasonalized ARIMA models could be used in one‐ to three‐month‐ahead TDS forecasting at the study site with a simple, explicit model structure and similar model performance as the TFN and ANN models for better water management in the Basin.     

Prediction of the Fate and Transport Processes of Atrazine in a Reservoir

The fate and transport processes of a toxic chemical such as atrazine, an herbicide, in a reservoir are significantly influenced by hydrodynamic regimes of the reservoir. The two-dimensional (2D) laterally-integrated hydrodynamics and mass transport model, CE-QUAL-W2, was enhanced by incorporating a submodel for toxic contaminants and applied to Saylorville Reservoir, Iowa. The submodel describes the physical, chemical, and biological processes and predicts unsteady vertical and longitudinal distributions of a toxic chemical. The simulation results from the enhanced 2D reservoir model were validated by measured temperatures and atrazine concentrations in the reservoir. Although a strong thermal stratification was not identified from both observed and predicted water temperatures, the spatial variation of atrazine concentrations was largely affected by seasonal flow circulation patterns in the reservoir. In particular, the results showed the effect of flow circulation on spatial distribution of atrazine during summer months as the river flow formed an underflow within the reservoir and resulted in greater concentrations near the surface of the reservoir. Atrazine concentrations in the reservoir peaked around the end of May and early June. A good agreement between predicted and observed times and magnitudes of peak concentrations was obtained. The use of time-variable decay rates of atrazine led to more accurate prediction of atrazine concentrations, while the use of a constant half-life (60 days) over the entire period resulted in a 40% overestimation of peak concentrations. The results provide a better understanding of the fate and transport of atrazine in the reservoir and information useful in the development of reservoir operation strategies with respect to timing, amount, and depth of withdrawal.     

THE OPTIMALITY OF CAPACITY SHARING IN STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS OF SHARED RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: This paper is concerned with finding an optimal allocation of water entitlements for each of two users of water who share a reservoir. Two instruments of allocation are considered. The first, release sharing, involves sharing the releases from the reservoir; the second, capacity sharing, is concerned with allocating to each user of water a share of inflows, reservoir capacity and leakage and evaporation losses. Stochastic dynamic programming problems of reservoir operation under each type of sharing arrangement are formulated. It is shown that the maximum discounted expected profit from reservoir operation over the life of the storage using capacity sharing is at least as large as that obtained using release sharing and that release sharing is not Pareto efficient.     

BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO MANAGE SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES1

ABSTRACT: Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western United States river basins because they impact threatened fish species’habitat. One way to alleviate this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. Presented is a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS uses a statistical model for predicting daily stream temperatures and a rule‐based module to compute reservoir releases. Water releases are calculated to meet fish habitat temperature targets based on the predicted stream temperature and a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. Strategies that enable effective use of a limited amount of water throughout the season have also been incorporated in the DSS. The utility of the DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada, using hypothetical operating policy and 1988 through 1994 inflows. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations (i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat).     

The Impact of Dynamic Environmental Flow Releases on Hydropower Production in the Zambezi River Basin

Incorporation of environmental flow releases from reservoirs has proven to be challenging due to fear of losses to existing water uses. Moreover environmental flow requirements (EFR) have not often been operationalized. This study compares the possibility of implementing dynamic EFR based on natural flows lagged against an upstream unregulated gauging point with static EFR. It simulates different scenarios with a high flow release in the wet season and analyses its impacts on hydropower production. This method accounts fully for the natural variability of environmental flows, implying less pressure on existing water uses during relatively dry years. Joint operation of two cascading dams vs. individual operation for EFR was also explored. These approaches were tested for the Zambezi River basin in Southern Africa using a water resources model, WAFLEX. Historic data on reservoir water levels, releases and power generation of the hydropower schemes were synthesized. Combining these yielded a validated series of monthly flow data for a 28 year period (1982‐2010). The results show that Kariba and Cahora Bassa reservoirs face a reduction in power produced when they would annually release an environmental flow. However, the dynamic EFR method entails smaller hydropower losses. Joint environmental flow operations will reduce overall basin power production more than if Cahora Bassa alone would release an environmental flow. However, such joint operation would be more beneficial to the ecosystem.     

Upstream Channel Changes Following Dam Construction and Removal Using a GIS/Remote Sensing Approach1

Abstract: This study used an innovative GIS/remote sensing approach to study historical river channel changes in the Huron River, a wandering gravel‐bedded river in northern Ohio. Eight sets of historical aerial photographs (1958‐2003) span the construction of a low‐head dam (1969), removal of the spillway (1994), and removal of the dam itself (2002). Construction of the dam modified stream gradients >4 km upstream of the small impounded reservoir. This study tracked changes in the polygon size, shape, and centroid position of 12 sand‐gravel bars through a study reach 0.2‐4.1 km upstream of the dam. These bars were highly responsive, tending to migrate obliquely downstream and toward the outer bank at rates up to 9 m/year. Historical changes in the size and position of the bars can be interpreted as the downstream translation of one or more sediment waves. Prior to dam construction, a sediment wave moved downstream through the study reach. Following construction of the dam, this sediment wave became stationary and degraded in situ by dispersion. The growth of bars throughout the study reach during this time interval resulted in a progressive increase in channel sinuosity. Removal of the spillway rejuvenated downstream translation of a sediment wave through the study reach and was followed by a reduction in channel sinuosity. These results illustrate that important geomorphologic changes can occur upstream of low‐head dams. This may be a neglected area of research about the effects of dams and dam removals.     

A modeling assessment of the thermal regime for an urban sport fishery

Water temperature is almost certainly a limiting factor in the maintenance of a self-sustaining rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss, formerlySalmo gairdneri) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) fishery in the lower reaches of the Cache la Poudre River near Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. Irrigation diversions dewater portions of the river, but cold reservoir releases moderate water temperatures during some periods. The US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was applied to a 31-km segment of the river using readily available stream geometry and hydrological and meteorological data. The calibrated model produced satisfactory water temperature predictions (R ²=0.88,P<0.001, N=49) for a 62-day summer period. It was used to evaluate a variety of flow and nonflow alternatives to keep water temperatures below 23.3°C for the trout. Supplemental flows or reduced diversions of 3 m³/sec would be needed to maintain suitable summer temperatures throughout most of the study area. Such flows would be especially beneficial during weekends when current irrigation patterns reduce flows. The model indicated that increasing the riparian shade would result in little improvement in water temperatures but that decreasing the stream width would result in significant temperature reductions. Introduction of a more thermally tolerant redband trout (Oncorhynchus sp.), or smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui) might prove beneficial to the fishery. Construction of deep pools for thermal refugia might also be helpful.     

Longitudinal‐Vertical Hydrodynamic and Turbidity Simulations for Prediction of Dam Reconstruction Effects in Asian Monsoon Area1

Abstract: This research investigates possible impacts of enlarged water body according to dam reconstruction on the hydrodynamics and water quality of the reservoir using a laterally averaged, two‐dimensional hydrodynamic and transport model, CE‐QUAL‐W2. The lake was formed by the artificial dam in 1983 for agricultural water supply and is currently under consideration of reconstruction so as to expand the volume of reservoir for flood control as well as water supply in downstream areas. To calibrate and validate the model, field‐collected data were compared with model predictions for water level fluctuations and water temperature during the years of 2001 (from January to December) and 2003 (from March to November). The model results showed a good agreement with field measurements both in calibration and verification. Utilizing the model, impacts of dam reconstruction on the thermal hydrodynamics and turbid current were predicted. From the model results, dam reconstruction limited the depth of thermal stratification below 10 meter and formed steep temperature gradient between epilimnion and hypolimnion. The restricted thermal stratification persisted up to the end of September. This result indicated that thermal stratification would become stronger during summer and stay longer after dam reconstruction. In addition, the restricted thermal stratification caused vertical circulation of water mixing lower than 10 meter and isolated the upper water layer from the lower water layer which increased the volume of hypolimnetic water with low temperature. The vertical circulation near the surface also mitigated propagation of density plume within the depth of 10 m which would remain the hypolimnetic water clean.     

Effects of warm water inflows on the dispersion of pollutants in small reservoirs

The effects of the warm water discharged by a nuclear power plant (NPP) into a small reservoir are studied. A case study is presented (José Cabrera NPP-Zorita Hidráulica Reservoir) with experimental data of the reservoir stratification and predicted data of the dispersion of radioactive pollutants from operative or accidental releases. The vertical and longitudinal temperature profiles, electrical conductivity and transparency of the reservoir water were measured for an annual cycle. The results indicate that the continuous warm water discharge from the NPP causes permanent and artificial reservoir stratification. The stratification is significant within 1500 m upstream and 1000 m downstream from the warm water outfall. The pollutant dispersion has been predicted by using a flow model based on N(T) perfect-mixing compartments in series with feedback. The model parameter, N(T), is calculated from the longitudinal diffusion coefficient. The prediction of pollutant dispersion by means of this model shows that the stratification slows down the vertical mixing in the whole water body, and reduces the reservoir volume that is effective for the dilution and dispersion of pollutants. This means that, in the case of a radioactive pollutant release, the reservoir radioactivity level could increase significantly.     

Management and Limnology Interact to Drive Water Temperature Patterns in a Middle Rockies River‐Reservoir System

This study seeks to improve understanding of temperature patterns in reservoir outflows. We examined water temperatures in an irrigation storage reservoir, Island Park Reservoir, and its outflow, Henry’s Fork of the Snake River in eastern Idaho. Our objectives were to (1) quantify the extent to which daily temperature ranges in the reservoir outflow deviated from other reaches of the Henry’s Fork, and (2) test whether the reservoir’s net volume change during the summer — expressed as the volume of water remaining in the reservoir on September 1 — predicted mean summer temperature in the outflow. Two years of temperature data showed dampened diel temperature cycles in the reservoir outflow. Model selection with 17 years of climatic, hydrologic, and reservoir management variables found mean summer temperature in the outflow was best predicted by September 1 reservoir volume and average summer air temperature. Two years of weekly reservoir thermal profiles indicated large changes in reservoir volume eliminated cool hypolimnetic water and encouraged mixing, allowing warm epilimnetic water to be discharged into the outflow. Increases in future drought frequency and severity and increases in summer air temperatures could increase the frequency of occurrence of high mean summertime water temperatures in the outflow. Our study provides important information for local managers by quantifying influences on outflow temperatures and the downstream river ecosystem.     

Simulated Limnological Effects of the Shasta Lake Temperature Control Device

We estimated the effects of a temperature control device (TCD) on a suite of thermodynamic and limnological attributes for a large storage reservoir, Shasta Lake, in northern California. Shasta Dam was constructed in 1945 with a fixed-elevation penstock. The TCD was installed in 1997 to improve downstream temperatures for endangered salmonids by releasing epilimnetic waters in the winter/spring and hypolimnetic waters in the summer/fall. We calibrated a two-dimensional hydrodynamic reservoir water quality model, CE-QUAL-W2, and applied a structured design-of-experiment simulation procedure to predict the principal limnological effects of the TCD under a variety of environmental scenarios. Calibration goodness-of-fit ranged from good to poor depending on the constituent simulated, with an R ² of 0.9 for water temperature but 0.3 for phytoplankton. Although the chemical and thermal characteristics of the discharge changed markedly, the reservoir's characteristics remained relatively unchanged. Simulations showed the TCD causing an earlier onset and shorter duration of summer stratification, but no dramatic affect on Shasta's nutrient composition. Peak in-reservoir phytoplankton production may begin earlier and be stronger in the fall with the TCD, while outfall phytoplankton concentrations may be much greater in the spring. Many model predictions differed from our a priori expectations that had been shaped by an intensive, but limited-duration, data collection effort. Hydrologic and meteorological variables, most notably reservoir carryover storage at the beginning of the calendar year, influenced model predictions much more strongly than the TCD. Model results indicate that greater control over reservoir limnology and release quality may be gained by carefully managing reservoir volume through the year than with the TCD alone. RID=" ID=" Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. e-mail: John_Bartholow&commat;USGS.gov     

EFFECTS OF VARIABLE DISCHARGE SCHEMES ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN AT A HYDROELECTRIC STATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of variable discharges during the summer on the dissolved oxygen (DO) content and water temperature upstream and downstream of the Conowingo Hydroelectric Power Station were investigated. The DO dynamics are controlled primarily by meteorological factors that are independent of the mode of hydrostation operation. DO stratification occurred during the summer in Conowingo Pond, but thermal stratification was not observed. The magnitude and duration of off-peak discharges including a run-of-the-river operation did not affect DO stratification in Conowingo Pond; little vertical mixing occurred. However, strong winds and/or high river flows temporarily destroyed DO stratification. The run-of-the-river operation or off-peak continuous discharge schemes did not provide better DO conditions downstream of the hydrostation than the peaking operation with intermittent off-peak releases. A statistical model predicted that a DO of 5 ppm occurs 0.6 miles downstream of the powerhouse when the natural river flow is consistently greater than 15,000 cfs and water temperature is less than 80°F. A mean daily DO of at least 4 ppm was predicted to occur over 80 percent of the time during the 92-day summer period. Farther downstream (1.3 miles from the powerhouse) a mean daily DO of at least 4 ppm was predicted to occur 90 percent of the time in summer.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

THE EFFECT OF MAINTENANCE ON STORM WATER DETENTION BASIN EFFICIENCY1

ABSTRACT: Storm water detention is an effective and popular method for controlling the effects of increased urbanization and development. Detention basins are used to control both increases in flow rates and sedimentation. While numerous storm water management policies have been proposed, they most often fail to give adequate consideration to maintenance of the basin. Sediment accumulation with time and the growth of grass and weeds in the emergency spillway are two maintenance problems. A model that was calibrated with data from a storm water detention basin in Montgomery County, Maryland, is used to evaluate the effect of maintenance on the efficiency of the detention basin. Sediment accumulation in the basin caused the peak reduction factor to decrease while it increased as vegetation growth in the emergency spillway increased. Thus, the detention basin will not function as intended in the design when the basin is not properly maintained. Thus, maintenance of detention basins should be one component of a comprehensive storm water management policy.     

Modeling Hydrology in a Small Rocky Mountain Watershed Serving Large Urban Populations1

Abstract: This article describes the development of a calibrated hydrologic model for the Blue River watershed (867 km²) in Summit County, Colorado. This watershed provides drinking water to over a third of Colorado’s population. However, more research on model calibration and development for small mountain watersheds is needed. This work required integration of subsurface and surface hydrology using GIS data, and included aspects unique to mountain watersheds such as snow hydrology, high ground‐water gradients, and large differences in climate between the headwaters and outlet. Given the importance of this particular watershed as a major urban drinking‐water source, the rapid development occurring in small mountain watersheds, and the importance of Rocky Mountain water in the arid and semiarid West, it is useful to describe calibrated watershed modeling efforts in this watershed. The model used was Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). An accurate model of the hydrologic cycle required incorporation of mountain hydrology‐specific processes. Snowmelt and snow formation parameters, as well as several ground‐water parameters, were the most important calibration factors. Comparison of simulated and observed streamflow hydrographs at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations resulted in good fits to average monthly values (0.71 Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient). With this capability, future assessments of point‐source and nonpoint‐source pollutant transport are possible.     

Predicting the Thermal Effects of Dam Removal on the Klamath River

The Klamath River once supported large runs of anadromous salmonids. Water temperature associated with multiple mainstem hydropower facilities might be one of many factors responsible for depressing Klamath salmon stocks. We combined a water quantity model and a water quality model to predict how removing the series of dams below Upper Klamath Lake might affect water temperatures, and ultimately fish survival, in the spawning and rearing portions of the mainstem Klamath. We calibrated the water quantity and quality models and applied them for the hydrometeorological conditions during a 40-year postdam period. Then, we hypothetically removed the dams and their impoundments from the models and reestimated the rivers water temperatures. The principal thermal effect of dam and reservoir removal would be to restore the timing (phase) of the rivers seasonal thermal signature by shifting it approximately 18 days earlier in the year, resulting in river temperatures that more rapidly track ambient air temperatures. Such a shift would likely cool thermal habitat conditions for adult fall chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) during upstream migration and benefit mainstem spawning. By contrast, spring and early summer temperatures could be warmer without dams, potentially harming chinook rearing and outmigration in the mainstem. Dam removal might affect the rivers thermal regime during certain conditions for over 200 km of the mainstem.     

The Watershed Flow and Allocation Model: An NHDPlus‐Based Watershed Modeling Approach for Multiple Scales and Conditions

The Watershed Flow and Allocation model (WaterFALL^®) provides segment‐specific, daily streamflow at both gaged and ungaged locations to generate the hydrologic foundation for a variety of water resources management applications. The model is designed to apply across the spatially explicit and enhanced National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) stream and catchment network. To facilitate modeling at the NHDPlus catchment scale, we use an intermediate‐level rainfall‐runoff model rather than a complex process‐based model. The hydrologic model within WaterFALL simulates rainfall‐runoff processes for each catchment within a watershed and routes streamflow between catchments, while accounting for withdrawals, discharges, and onstream reservoirs within the network. The model is therefore distributed among each NHDPlus catchment within the larger selected watershed. Input parameters including climate, land use, soils, and water withdrawals and discharges are georeferenced to each catchment. The WaterFALL system includes a centralized database and server‐based environment for storing all model code, input parameters, and results in a single instance for all simulations allowing for rapid comparison between multiple scenarios. We demonstrate and validate WaterFALL within North Carolina at a variety of scales using observed streamflows to inform quantitative and qualitative measures, including hydrologic flow metrics relevant to the study of ecological flow management decisions.