Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

-

Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

-

- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

-

- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

-

- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Distribution of PCDDs and PCDFs in Soils Collected from the Denver Front Range - Principal Components Analysis of Diffuse Dioxin Sources (10 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope The Rocky Mountain Arsenal (RMA) is a US Army facility located northeast of Denver, Colorado that has been listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). It is currently being re-mediated under the authority of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) and the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986 (SARA). As part of the remediation activities at RMA, indications were found that a source of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) had existed on the RMA. As a result, investigations were undertaken to assess the possible nature and extent of any potential sources of PCDDs and PCDFs on the RMA site. In addition, other studies were conducted that examined PCDD/PCDF contamination in the Denver area. The goal of these studies was to examine nature and extent of PCDD/PCDF contamination both on the RMA as well as in the surrounding Denver area. The intent of this study was to characterize sources of dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) at low environmental concentrations which might have originated from diffuse sources in the Denver Colorado area and in particular, the Rocky Mountain Arsenal (RMA) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Methods Over 200 soil samples were collected from the RMA and the Denver area. From the RMA, soil was collected as part of three studies that included a (1) random site-wide sampling of the RMA, (2) soils from the Western Tier Parcel (WTP), and (3) soils from Historic Use areas. Denver area soil samples were collected from five different land use categories: Residential, Agricultural, Open Space, Commercial, and Industrial. PCA was conducted on concentrations of 17 2,3,7,8-substuituted PCDD and PCDF congeners in 220 soil samples collected from the RMA and the Denver Front Range region. Results and Discussion PCA demonstrated the presence of possible minor sources of dioxins on the RMA. Current remediation efforts on RMA will result in the removal of these sources. Samples from the RMA were identified by the presence of a congener profile containing higher chlorinated PCDFs while the Denver Front Range areas were characterized by the presence of higher chlorinated PCDD congeners. The presence of a PCDF signature for the RMA samples does not necessarily indicate a major source of these contaminants on-site. Indeed, the relatively diffuse nature of the sample clusters would argue strongly against the presence of a single large source. Instead, the predominance of the PCDF congeners probably indicates the mixed industrial activities that took place on and near the site. Conclusion PCA results indicate that PCDD/PCDF profiles in soils collected from the RMA differed from those collected from the outlying Denver areas but that a major source of these contaminants was not present. Rather, the diffuse nature of sample clusters from the PCA indicated that the congener profile of RMA samples was most likely a result of the mixed industrial activities that historically have taken place on and near the site. PCA also indicated that many of the 'open area' (peripheral site-wide) RMA soils samples did not differ from Denver are reference congener profiles. This finding was also true for samples collected from the WTP that were essentially indistinguishable from Off-RMA reference samples. In addition, total TEQ concentrations in soils collected from WTP were similar to those measured in soils collected from the Denver Front Range areas indicating that lack of a major source of PCDD/PCDF within the WTP zones of the RMA. Recommendation and Outlook Analytical as well as statistical results of the soil congener data indicate that the WTP soils are indistinguishable from soils collected from non-industrial areas in the Denver area. This finding would support the recent 'de-listing' of the WTP from the other RMA areas and its' transfer to other authorities in the Denver area.