Major accident management in the process industry: An expert tool called CESMA for intelligent allocation of prevention investments

A tool (called CESMA) was developed to carry out cost–benefit analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses of prevention investments for avoiding major accidents. A wide variety of parameters necessary to calculate both the costs of the considered preventive measures and the benefits related with the avoidance of accidents were identified in the research. The benefits are determined by estimating the difference in (hypothetical) major accident costs without and with the implementation of a preventive measure. As many relevant costs and benefits as possible were included into the tool, based on literature and expert opinion, in order to be able to deliver an all-embracing cost–benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to assist in the investment decision process. Because major accidents are related to extremely low frequencies, the tool takes the uncertainty of the unwanted occurrence of a major accident into account through the usage of a so-called ‘disproportion factor’. Compared with existing software, the CESMA tool is innovative by striving for an as-accurate-as-possible picture of costs and benefits of major accident prevention, and taking the uncertainties accompanying disastrous events into consideration. Furthermore, an illustrative example of CESMA is presented in the paper.     

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework

IntroductionThe incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks.MethodWe conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved.ResultsThe estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour.ConclusionsThe ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned.Practical applicationsFindings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety.     

Characteristics of worker accidents on NYSDOT construction projects

INTRODUCTION: This paper aims at providing cost-effective safety measures to protect construction workers in highway work zones, based on real data. Two types of accidents that occur in work zones were: (a) construction work area accidents, and (b) traffic accidents involving construction worker(s). METHODOLOGY/RESULTS: A detailed analysis of work zone accidents involving 36 fatalities and 3,055 severe injuries to construction workers on New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) construction projects from 1990 to 2001 established that five accident types: (a) Struck/Pinned by Large Equipment, (b) Trip or Fall (elevated), (c) Contact w/Electrical or Gas Utility, (d) Struck-by Moving/Falling Load, and (e) Crane/Lift Device Failure accounted for nearly 96% of the fatal accidents, nearly 63% of the hospital-level injury accidents, and nearly 91% of the total costs. These construction work area accidents had a total cost of $133.8 million. Traffic accidents that involve contractors' employees were also examined. Statistical analyses of the traffic accidents established that five traffic accident types: (a) Work Space Intrusion, (b) Worker Struck-by Vehicle Inside Work Space, (c) Flagger Struck-by Vehicle, (d) Worker Struck-by Vehicle Entering/Exiting Work Space, and (e) Construction Equipment Struck-by Vehicle Inside Work Space accounted for nearly 86% of the fatal, nearly 70% of the hospital-level injury and minor injury traffic accidents, and $45.4 million (79.4%) of the total traffic accident costs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this paper provide real statistics on construction worker related accidents reported on construction work zones. Potential preventions based on real statistics have also been suggested. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The ranking of accident types, both within the work area as well as in traffic, will guide the heavy highway contractor and owner agencies in identifying the most cost effective safety preventions.     

Economic valuation of damages originated by major accidents in port areas

Due to special features of ports – variety of activities: storage and loading/unloading of hazardous materials; circulation of ships, lorries and trains; proximity to urban zones; etc. – major accidents can be associated with severe damages. The cost of such accidents must be known to allow for compensation to people and companies. A procedure is presented to estimate the cost of damages suffered by people, equipment and environment. Criteria to assess the cost of damage to people – a controversial issue – are discussed, establishing a method to predict the number of people killed, injured and evacuated. Economic compensation is proposed. Environmental damages are also considered. These include potential damage to the atmosphere, soil, water and fauna. Estimates of the cost of the equipment and buildings affected by the accident are proposed. Finally, an assessment of the loss of profits due to activity breakdown and indirect costs is analysed. The methodology presented can easily be extended to general, inland process and storage sites.     

A development in energy flow/barrier analysis

In this paper, the occupational accidents and their effects on people are modeled. The basis of energy flow/barrier analysis is used to define an accident as the impact of a hazardous agent on a target, as a result of failure of control and protective barriers. This definition is enhanced to include serial and parallel barriers and to distinguish energy barriers from target barriers. The barrier attributes are defined and used to create a quantitative scenario-building model. The probability and severity of various accidents are estimated, by studying barrier reliability and efficiency. This approach is used to develop and simulate accident scenarios and to calculate their consequences. This model can be used in complex systems for analyzing the risk and estimating the importance of barriers.     

A process mapping model for calculating indirect costs of workplace accidents

This article follows an earlier one in which four criteria and four bases for the development of an indirect-cost calculation model adapted to the accuracy requirements and time constraints of workplace decision-makers were established. A two-level model for calculating indirect costs using process mapping of the organizational response to a workplace accident is presented. The model is based on data collected in interviews with those employees in charge of occupational health and safety in 10 companies of various sizes in different industry sectors. This model is the first to use process mapping to establish the indirect costs of workplace accidents. The approach allows easy identification of the duration and frequency of actions taken by stakeholders when a workplace accident occurs, facilitates the collection of the information needed to calculate indirect costs and yields a usable, precise result. A simple graphic representation of an organization's accident processes helps the user understand each accident's cost components, allowing the identification and reduction of inefficiencies in the overall process. Impact on Industry: By facilitating data collection and shortening the time needed to assess indirect costs of workplace accidents, this indirect cost calculation tool is better suited for workplace use than those currently available.     

Strategic accident reduction in an energy company and its resulting financial benefits

This study provides a case example of an energy company that prioritized occupational safety and health and accident reduction as long-term, strategic development targets. Furthermore, this study describes the monetary benefits of this strategic decision. Company-specific accident indicators and monetary costs and benefits are evaluated. During the observation period (2010–2016), strategic investments in occupational safety and health cost the company EUR 0.8 million. However, EUR 1.8 million were saved in the same period, resulting in a 2.20 cost–benefit ratio. The trend in cost savings is strongly positive. Annual accident costs were EUR 0.4 million lower in 2016 compared to costs in 2010. This study demonstrates that long-term, strategic commitment to occupational safety and health provides monetary value.     

Process design optimization and risk analysis

Hazard identification and risk assessment are key aspects in process plant design. They are often applied in the final stages of the process at whatever the cost, unless financial constraints are imposed. However, a much better solution would be to introduce risk analysis earlier by including it in earlier stages of the design process, such as when the cost of a plant and the cost of any accidents that may occur are estimated. In this paper, an optimization methodology is proposed, in which both cost and risk (with a deterministic approach) are taken into account, to improve on the current situation. If a decision variable is chosen, an objective function will be established that makes it possible to analyze variations in overall costs, including the cost of the investment and the cost of accidents. This leads to an optimum situation in which costs are kept to a minimum. Of course, this optimization is subject to constraints, the greatest of which is the fact that risk must not exceed tolerated threshold levels. The procedure is explained and two examples, one involving a toxic release and the other a BLEVE/fireball, are used to illustrate it.     

Global estimates of occupational accidents

Information of occupational accidents is not standardized worldwide. Especially, developing countries do not have reliable information on their occupational accidents due to lack of proper recording and notification systems. The number of accidents is under-reported but figures are still used as a baseline for occupational safety work. In this paper global estimates of occupational accidents are presented for 175 countries. These estimates are based on figures from selected countries in eight different regions. Global estimates help to compare different countries and regions to each other to detect improvements in safety and safety work. In 1998 the average estimated number of fatal occupational accidents was 350 000 and there were 264 million non-fatal accidents. Global estimates are needed to guide national policies and decision-making.     

时变条件下公路危险品罐车运输路线选择

为合理选择公路运输危险品路线,保障运输安全,将用于求解静态路径规划问题的Diikstra标号法进行推广和改进,提出指标累积值标号法,运用该方法并依据危险品罐车运输事故统计数据,建立了时变条件下以路段泄漏事故率、路侧人口密度及路段运输费用为指标的危险品罐车公路运输路线选择模型.并给出待选路线对比原则.实例应用表明,该模型充分考虑了事故概率、事故后果及运输成本3大危险品运输路线选择影响因素,使用方便且受主观因素影响小,具有较好的实用性.     

Economic cost of occupational accidents: Evidence from a small island economy

Though a number of occupational accidents have occurred amongst the working population in Mauritius, no study has been carried out to measure the costs associated with such accidents to the best of our knowledge. This study bridges this gap by measuring the economic costs of occupational accidents by using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The results show that occupational accidents result in costs amounting to nearly Rs. 168 mn of which a major part is accounted for, by loss in productivity. Alongside the highest rate of accidents took place within small enterprises and younger workers are the one taking higher risks mainly due to lack of knowledge and risk awareness. The findings also reveal that only 4% employers believe that investment in safety and health is important for maintaining good business partly because most of the costs are borne by the state. Such a situation therefore requires the need for awareness on practical health and safety systems and procedures among both employees and employers with a view to prevent accident and injuries.     

Stochastic modeling of accident risks associated with an underground coal mine in Turkey

In this study, a methodology is proposed towards development of an uncertainty model that includes randomness in the occurrence of days-lost accidents in a coal mine. The accident/injury data consists of 1390 days-lost accident cases recorded at GLI-Tuncbilek underground lignite mine from January 1994 to December 2002. In the first step of proposed methodology, the frequency and the severity of the accidents have been modeled statistically by fitting appropriate distributions. The test done by BestFit software yields a chi-square value of 21.53 (p = 0.089) with 14 degrees of freedom and estimates the parameter of lambda for Poisson distribution as 12.87 accidents/month. For the severity component, a lognormal distribution is fitted to days-lost data and chi-square goodness-of-fit test calculates a value of 40.44 (p = 0.097) with 30 degrees of freedom. The parameters of lognormal distribution are estimated as a mean of 14.3 days and standard deviation of 23.1 days, respectively. Then, two distributions are basically combined by Monte Carlo simulation in order to construct relative risk levels in yearly base referring to the final cumulative distribution. Finally, a simple forecasting modeling is carried out in order to quantitatively predict the expected risk levels by using decomposition technique in time series analysis. Stochastic model estimates that although, there would be substantial reduction in the expected number of accidents in the near future, the higher level of risks still should be a concern for the mine management.     

海上溢油事故双目标应急物资调度模型

为满足海上溢油事故发生后的应急物资需求,最大程度减少事故带来的损失,根据海上溢油应急物资调度的特点,构建基于应急物资需求量和调度时间模糊不确定下应急成本最小和延误时间最少的双目标调度模型。引入三角模糊函数描述应急物资调度中物资需求量和调度时间的不确定性,构建模糊环境下溢油事故点对应急物资应急成本最小和应急延误时间最少的双目标模型,利用遗传算法求解,并通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明,三角模糊数能很好地表征调度中物资需求量和时间的不确定性及模糊属性,确定的调度方案能为海上溢油事故发生时应急物资调度提供决策依据。     

Net-cost model for workplace interventions

PROBLEM: Few methods exist for comprehensively examining the costs and benefits of ergonomic interventions applicable to a variety of economic sectors and settings. METHODS: An instrument for data collection and data analysis at the facility level is presented. In this net-cost model intervention costs are defined by equipment and labor costs for the interventions as well as the avoided costs of lost work time, medical care, and productivity improvements. RESULTS: Net-cost estimates for three case studies show that ergonomic interventions applied appropriately can result in substantial cost savings for the companies. DISCUSSION: It would be prudent to incorporate a protocol for collecting cost and effectiveness data in the standard operating procedures of companies introducing ergonomic interventions. Validation of the net-cost model through prospective studies is necessary. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This model may be used to determine the net-cost of implemented or proposed ergonomic interventions in industrial facilities.     

Driving and telephoning: Relative accident risk when using hand-held and hands-free mobile phones

Experimental research shows that using mobile phones while driving leads to impaired driving, and it has been suggested that this driving impairment to a large extent is a result of cognitive, rather than physical, distractions. This notion is partly supported by empirical data showing that use of hands-free phones is associated with impaired driving in much the same way as use of hand-held phones. In the present study, accident risk when using hand-held and hands-free phones was investigated in a sample of 4307 drivers who were involved in accidents in 2007. In addition, data from a similar survey from 1997 (N = 5007) were used in order to get more observations. Relative risk was estimated using “quasi-induced exposure” in multiple-vehicle accidents. Results from the two surveys combined showed a significant increase in accident risk for hand-held mobiles and for hand-held and hands-free phones together. A non-significant tendency towards increased risk for hands-free mobiles was also detected. However, analyses of data from 2007 separately did not result in statistically significant relative risk estimates for any of the mobile types. Hand-held users were more inclined to attribute the accident to mobile phone use than were hands-free users.     

License extensions for clean-record drivers: A 4-year follow-up

Over 4,000,000 of California's 17,000,000 licensed drivers used to come to the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) annually to take written and vision tests in order to renew their driver licenses. In an effort to increase public convenience and reduce costs, extension of the license by mail was implemented for selected groups of drivers with clean records over the life of their previous licenses. Continued implementation of the program was subject to evaluation of its effect on traffic safety. Since clean-record drivers make up about 50% of the renewal population, this program made it possible for some 2,000,000 drivers annually to avoid coming to the DMV for license renewal. Two studies of program safety effects were conducted, one evaluating a 2-year extension (760,000 subjects), and the other a 4-year extension (407,000 subjects). Random assignment to a group offered extension by mail or to a control group undergoing standard renewal testing and procedures was followed by careful tracking of accident and conviction activity. During the 48-month period following mailing of renewal notices or extension offers, the extension group had a slightly higher accident rate than did the in-person renewal group — an increase of 1%, or 13 accidents for every 10,000 extension offers. Although this small increase in accident rate would translate into about 2,500 additional accident involvements per year if applied to the current volume of clean-record drivers eligible for extension, statistical tests of significance indicated that the increase could easily be due to sampling error (p>.10). A supplemental Bayesian analysis resulted in a .24 probability that there was no true increase. The administrative cost savings attributable to the extension program were conservatively estimated to be $3,000,000 per year.     

建筑工地事故的经济损失与最有效的安全投资（香港经验）

本文论述了对因建筑工地发生的事故而导致承包商的经济损失的一个调查情况。作者对１８个建筑工地发生的６１８起事故进行了调查，每一个建筑工地，其安全状况指标是用总的等量损失工作日除以总的所需工作日来评价。通过这１８个例证，可以得到建筑工地事故损失与安全状况指标两者之间的关系。类似的，可以获得安全投资与安全状况指标两者的关系、从这两条曲线中。承包商可以决定对建筑工地的最适宜的安全投资。建筑项目的最小安全投资为建筑总投资的０．５５％。这时，在最适宜点之处安全投资要比总的事故损失大得多。     

The limits to risk aversion: Part 1. The point of indiscriminate decision

The paper uses utility theory to investigate how much should be spent to avert all costs from an industrial accident apart from direct human harm. These “environmental costs” will include those of evacuation, clean-up and business disruption. Assuming the organisation responsible will need to pay such costs, the difference between its expected utility with and without an environmental protection system constitutes a rational decision variable for whether or not the scheme should be installed. The value of utility is dependent on the coefficient of relative risk aversion, “risk-aversion” for short. A model of an organisation's decision-making process has been developed using the ABCD model, linking the organisation's assets, A, the cost of the protection scheme, B, the cost of consequences, C, and the expected utility difference with and without the scheme, D. Increasing the organisation's risk-aversion parameter will tend to make it less reluctant to invest in a protection system, but can bring about such investment only when the scheme is relatively close to financial break-even. For such borderline schemes, the amount the organisation is prepared to spend on the protection system will rise as the risk-aversion increases. The ratio of this sum to the break-even cost is named the “Limiting Risk Multiplier”, the maximum value of which is governed by the maximum feasible value of risk-aversion. However, the mathematical model shows that increasing the risk-aversion will reduce the clarity of decision making generally. Although the reluctance to invest in a protection scheme may change sign and turn into a positive desire to invest as the risk-aversion increases, the absolute value of this parameter is a continuously decreasing function of risk-aversion, tending asymptotically to zero. As a result, discrimination will gradually diminish, being lost altogether at the “point of indiscriminate decision”. Here the decision maker will be able to distinguish neither advantage in installing the scheme nor disadvantage in installing its inverse. There is a close correspondence between this mathematically predicted state and that of panic, where an individual has become so fearful that his actions become random. The point of indiscriminate decision provides a natural upper bound for the value of risk-aversion. This bounds the Limiting Risk Multiplier in turn, and so sets an objective upper limit on the amount that it is rational to spend on an environmental protection system.     

Revising HFACS for SMEs in the chemical industry: HFACS-CSMEs

Chemical accidents have occurred frequently in recent years, and most have occurred in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs in the chemical industry face greater challenges than large enterprises with regard to accident prevention. However, SMEs have been unable to effectively learn from accidents due to the limited resources. The accident causation model is an effective tool to help the analyst learn from accidents. As a systematic accident causation model, the causes classification in the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) can match the characteristics of SMEs, but the cause of chemical accidents can be ineffectively identified by HFACS. In this study, HFACS was revised for the SMEs in the chemical industry, mainly consisting of three parts. First, based on the definition of factors in the original HFACS, the extended HFACS framework was obtained, which include 78 manifestations with the characteristics of the chemical accidents. Second, 101 accidents occurring in a SME in the chemical industry from 2012 to 2016 were analyzed though the extended HFACS framework. Finally, a new model, known as the HFACS-CSMEs, was obtained by further revising the manifestations and causes classification according to the statistical results of the accident analysis. HFACS-CSMEs consists of 15 cause factors and 56 manifestations, which can effectually identify and distinguish the causes in chemical accidents. Moreover, the easy-to-understand and statistically acceptable features of HFACS-CSMEs can cater to the SMEs regarding accident analysis. HFACS-CSMEs solves the problem that HFACS cannot be directly applied to chemical accidents and provides new ideas about preventing accidents in SMEs in the chemical industry.