Carbon in the Vegetation and Soils of Great Britain

•The total amount of carbon held by vegetation in Great Britain is estimated to be 114 Mtonnes. •Woodlands and forests hold 80% of the G.B. total although they occupy only about 11% of the rural land area. Broadleaf species hold about 50% of the carbon in woodlands and forests. •A map of carbon in the vegetation of Great Britain at 1 km×1 km resolution based on land cover identified in the I.T.E. Land Cover Map is presented. The predominant location of vegetation carbon is the broadleaved woodlands of southern England. •The amount of carbon in the soils of Great Britain is estimated to be 9838 Mt (6948 Mt in Scotland and 2890 Mt in England and Wales). •In Scotland, most soil carbon is in blanket peats, whereas most soil carbon is in stagnogley soils in England and Wales. •The carbon content of the soils of Great Britain is mapped at 1 km×1 km resolution. Scottish peat soils have the greatest density of carbon and in total contain 4523 Mt of carbon, 46% of the G.B. total.     

Regional patterns of soil organic carbon stocks in China

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is of great importance in the global carbon cycle. Distribution patterns of SOC in various regions of China constitute a nation-wide baseline for studies on soil carbon changes. This paper presents an integrated and multi-level study on SOC stock patterns of China, and presents baseline SOC stock estimates by great administrative regions, river watersheds, soil type regions and ecosystem. The assignment is done by means of a recently completed 1: 1,000,000 scale soil database of China, which is the most detailed and reliable one in China at the present time. SOC densities of 7292 soil profiles collected across China in the middle of the 1980s were calculated and then linked to corresponding polygons in a digital soil map, resulting in a SOC Density Map of China on a 1: 1,000,000 scale, and a 1 km x 1 km grid map. Corresponding maps of administrative regions, river watersheds, soil types (ST), and ecosystems in China were also prepared with an identical resolution and coordinate control points, allowing GIS analyses. Results show that soils in China cover an area of 9.281 x 10(6)km(2) in total, with a total SOC stock of 89.14 Pg (1 Pg=10(15)g) and a mean SOC density of 96.0 t C/ha. Confidence limits of the SOC stock and density in China are estimated as [89.23 Pg, 89.08 Pg] and [96.143 t C/ha, 95.981 t C/ha] at 95% probability, respectively. The largest total SOC stock (23.60 Pg) is found in South-west China while the highest mean SOC density (181.9 t C/ha) is found in north-east China. The total SOC stock and the mean SOC density in the Yangtze river watershed are 21.05 Pg and 120.0 t C/ha, respectively, while the corresponding figures in the Yellow river watershed are 8.46 Pg and 104.3 t C/ha, respectively. The highest total SOC stocks are found in Inceptisols (34.39 Pg) with SOC density of 102.8 t C/ha. The lowest and highest mean SOC densities are found on Entisols (28.1 t C/ha), and on Histosols (994.728.1 t C/ha), respectively. Finally, the total SOC stock in shrub and forest ecosystem classes are 25.55 and 21.50 Pg, respectively; the highest mean SOC density (209.9 t C/ha) was recorded in the wetland ecosystem class and the lowest (29.0 t C/ha) in the desert ecosystem class. Among five forest ecosystem types, Evergreen conifer forest stores the highest SOC stock (6.81 Pg), and Deciduous conifer forest shows the highest SOC density (225.9 t C/ha). Figures of SOC stocks stratified by Administrative regions, river watersheds, soil types and ecosystem types presented in the study may constitute national-wide baseline for studies of SOC stock changes in various regions in the future.     

Land use change and population growth in the Morobe Province of Papua New Guinea between 1975 and 2000

The relation between human population growth and land use change is much debated. Here we present a case study from Papua New Guinea where the population has increased from 2.3 million in 1975 to 5.2 million in 2000. Since 85% of the population relies on subsistence agriculture, population growth affects agricultural land use. We assessed land use change in the Morobe province (33,933 km2) using topographic maps of 1975 and Landsat TM images of 1990 and 2000. Between 1975 and 2000, agricultural land use increased by 58% and population grew by 99%. Most new agricultural land was taken from primary forest and the forest area decreased from 9.8 ha person(-1) in 1975 to 4.4 ha person(-1) in 2000. Total population change and total land use change were strongly correlated. Most of the agricultural land use change occurred on Inceptisols in areas with high rainfall (>2500 mm year(-1)) on moderate to very steep slopes (10-56%). Agricultural land use changes in logged-over areas were in the vicinity of populated places (villages), and in close proximity to road access. There was considerable variation between the districts but districts with higher population growth also had larger increases in agricultural areas. It is concluded that in the absence of improved farming systems the current trend of increased agriculture with rapid population growth is likely to continue.     

Land use change effects on forest carbon cycling throughout the southern United States

We modeled the effects of afforestation and deforestation on carbon cycling in forest floor and soil from 1900 to 2050 throughout 13 states in the southern United States. The model uses historical data on gross (two-way) transitions between forest, pasture, plowed agriculture, and urban lands along with equations describing changes in carbon over many decades for each type of land use change. Use of gross rather than net land use transition data is important because afforestation causes a gradual gain in carbon stocks for many decades, while deforestation causes a much more rapid loss in carbon stocks. In the South-Central region (Texas to Kentucky) land use changes caused a net emission of carbon before the 1980s, followed by a net sequestration of carbon subsequently. In the Southeast region (Florida to Virginia), there was net emission of carbon until the 1940s, again followed by net sequestration of carbon. These results could improve greenhouse gas inventories produced to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Specifically, from 1990 to 2004 for the entire 13-state study area, afforestation caused sequestration of 88 Tg C, and deforestation caused emission of 49 Tg C. However, the net effect of land use change on carbon stocks in soil and forest floor from 1990 to 2004 was about sixfold smaller than the net change in carbon stocks in trees on all forestland. Thus land use change effects and forest carbon cycling during this period are dominated by changes in tree carbon stocks.     

Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.     

Determination of Soil Erosion Risk in the Mustafakemalpasa River Basin, Turkey, Using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Geographic Information System, and Remote Sensing

Sediment transport from steep slopes and agricultural lands into the Uluabat Lake (a RAMSAR site) by the Mustafakemalpasa (MKP) River is a serious problem within the river basin. Predictive erosion models are useful tools for evaluating soil erosion and establishing soil erosion management plans. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) function is a commonly used erosion model for this purpose in Turkey and the rest of the world. This research integrates the RUSLE within a geographic information system environment to investigate the spatial distribution of annual soil loss potential in the MKP River Basin. The rainfall erosivity factor was developed from local annual precipitation data using a modified Fournier index: The topographic factor was developed from a digital elevation model; the K factor was determined from a combination of the soil map and the geological map; and the land cover factor was generated from Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) images. According to the model, the total soil loss potential of the MKP River Basin from erosion by water was 11,296,063?Mg?year(-1) with an average soil loss of 11.2?Mg?year(-1). The RUSLE produces only local erosion values and cannot be used to estimate the sediment yield for a watershed. To estimate the sediment yield, sediment-delivery ratio equations were used and compared with the sediment-monitoring reports of the Dolluk stream gauging station on the MKP River, which collected data for >41?years (1964-2005). This station observes the overall efficiency of the sediment yield coming from the Orhaneli and Emet Rivers. The measured sediment in the Emet and Orhaneli sub-basins is 1,082,010?Mg?year(-1) and was estimated to be 1,640,947?Mg?year(-1) for the same two sub-basins. The measured sediment yield of the gauge station is 127.6?Mg?km(-2)?year(-1) but was estimated to be 170.2?Mg?km(-2) year(-1). The close match between the sediment amounts estimated using the RUSLE-geographic information system (GIS) combination and the measured values from the Dolluk sediment gauge station shows that the potential soil erosion risk of the MKP River Basin can be estimated correctly and reliably using the RUSLE function generated in a GIS environment.     

Carbon sequestration potential in reclaimed mine sites in seven east-central states

Terrestrial systems represent a significant potential carbon (C) sink to help mitigate or offset greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 3.2 Mha are permitted for mining activities in the United States, which are required to be reclaimed with vegetative cover. While site-specific studies have assessed C accumulation on reclaimed mine sites, regional analyses to estimate potential C increases have not been conducted. For this analysis, potential C sequestration is analyzed on 567,000 ha of mine land in a seven-state region reclaimed to cropland, pasture, or forest. Carbon accumulation is estimated for cropland, pasture, and forest soils, forest litter layer, and aboveground biomass by estimating average annual rates of C accumulation from site-specific and general C sequestration studies. The average annual rate of C storage is highest when mine land is reclaimed to forest, where the potential sequestration is 0.7 to 2.2 Tg yr(-1). The C from soils, litter layer, and biomass from mine lands reclaimed to forest represents 0.3 to 1.0% of the 1990 CO2 emissions from the study region (919 Tg CO2). To achieve the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goal of 7% below the 1990 level as proposed by the Kyoto Treaty requires CO2 emissions in the study area to be reduced by just over 64 Tg CO2. The potential carbon storage in mine sites reclaimed to forest could account for 4 to 12.5% of these required reductions.     

Observation and simulation of net primary productivity in Qilian Mountain, western China

We modeled net primary productivity (NPP) at high spatial resolution using an advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer (ASTER) image of a Qilian Mountain study area using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS). Two key driving variables of the model, leaf area index (LAI) and land cover type, were derived from ASTER and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Other spatially explicit inputs included daily meteorological data (radiation, precipitation, temperature, humidity), available soil water holding capacity (AWC), and forest biomass. NPP was estimated for coniferous forests and other land cover types in the study area. The result showed that NPP of coniferous forests in the study area was about 4.4 tCha(-1)y(-1). The correlation coefficient between the modeled NPP and ground measurements was 0.84, with a mean relative error of about 13.9%.     

Improving National-Scale Carbon Stock Inventories Using Knowledge on Land Use History

National-scale inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks have a high uncertainty. Inventories are often based on the interpolation of sampled information, often using a number of covariables to help such interpolation. The rationale for the choice of these covariables is not always documented, despite the fact that many local-scale studies have identified the factors explaining spatial variability of SOC and FFC stocks. These studies indicate, among others the importance of long-term land use history. Despite this, information on the effects of land use history has never been used to explain variability of carbon stocks in national-scale inventories. We designed an alternative method to improve national-scale inventories of SOC and FCC for the Dutch sand area that takes stock of the findings of detailed case studies. Determinants for SOC and FFC stocks derived from landscape-scale case studies were used to map national-scale spatial variability and to calculate national totals. The resulting national-scale spatial distribution was compared with the SOC stock map from the current Dutch greenhouse gas inventory. Using land use history to explain SOC variability decreased the error of the SOC stock estimate in 60 % of the area. The error in FFC stocks decreased in half of the forest area after including soil fertility, tree species, and forest age as explanatory factors. Estimates with reduced uncertainty will make land use and land management a more attractive and acceptable mitigation option to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for the LULUCF sector.     

Land take and food security: assessment of land take on the agricultural production in Europe

Soil is a multifunctional, non-renewable natural resource for Europe as clearly expressed in the European Union (EU) Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection (COM (2006)231). Soil carries out multiple functions, including the support of food production. Urban development and its associated land take poses a major threat to soil and could have significant effects on agricultural production. This paper aims to evaluate the potential productivity losses in European agriculture due to land-take processes between 1990 and 2006. Agricultural land take was calculated using CORINE Land Cover maps of 1990, 2000 and 2006. For 21 of the 27 EU member states, agricultural land take was computed to be 752,973 ha for 1990–2000 and 436,095 ha for 2000–2006, representing 70.8% and 53.5%, respectively, of the total EU land take for these periods. The impact of this land take on the production capabilities of the agricultural sector for the period 1990–2006 for 19 of the 21 states was estimated to be equivalent to a loss of more than six million tonnes of wheat. The paper demonstrates that Europe's intense urbanisation has a direct impact on its capability to produce food.     

Soil carbon storage in silvopastoral systems and a treeless pasture in northwestern Spain

Soil particle size and land management practices are known to have considerable influence on carbon (C) storage in soils, but such information is lacking for silvopastoral systems in Spain. This study quantified the amounts of soil C stored at various depths to 100 cm under silvopastoral plots of radiata pine ( D. Don) and birch ( Roth) in comparison to treeless pasture in Galicia, Spain. Soils were fractionated into three size classes (<53, 53-250, and 250-2000 μm), and C stored in them and in the whole (nonfractionated) soil was determined. Overall, the C stock to 1 m ranged from 80.9 to 176.9 Mg ha in these soils. Up to 1 m depth, 78.82% of C was found in the 0- to 25-cm soil depth, with 12.9, 4.92, and 3.36% in the 25- to 50-, 50- to 75-, and 75- to 100-cm depths, respectively. Soils under birch at 0 to 25 cm stored more C in the 250- to 2000-μm size class as compared with those under radiata pine; at that depth, pasture had more C than pine silvopasture in the smaller soil fractions (<53 and 53-250 μm). In the 75- to 100-cm depth, there was significantly more storage of C in the 250- to 2000-μm fraction in both silvopastures as compared with the pasture. The higher storage of soil C in larger fraction size in lower soil depths of silvopasture suggests that planting of trees into traditional agricultural landscapes will promote longer-term storage of C in the soil.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of soil phosphorus enrichment in Everglades water conservation area 2A

The Florida Everglades have undergone significant ecological change resulting from anthropogenic manipulation of historical regimes of hydrology, nutrient loading, and fire. Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA-2A) in the northern Everglades has been a focal point for the study of ecological effects of nutrient loading, especially phosphorus (P), from the nearby Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA). The overall objective of our study was to evaluate recent (1990 to 1998) changes in the spatial extent and patterns of soil P enrichment in Everglades WCA-2A. Surface soil was sampled to a depth of 10 cm at 62 sites within WCA-2A during 1998 for analysis of total phosphorus (TP) content. Geostatistical methods were used to create an interpolated grid of soil TP values across WCA-2A. Comparison of the results of this study with a similar study performed in 1990 showed that the extent of soil P enrichment in surface soil and sediments increased between 1990 and 1998, as evidenced by increased coverage of highly P-enriched soil near the primary surface inflows and a general increase in the concentration of soil TP in the interior regions of WCA-2A. Approximately 73% (31 777 ha) of the total land area of WCA-2A was considered P-enriched (soil total P > 500 mg kg(-1)) in 1998, compared with 48% of the land area (20,829 ha) in 1990, an average increase of 1,327 ha yr(-1). Study results indicate that the soil P enrichment "front" has advanced further into the relatively unimpacted interior of WCA-2A during the past several years.     

Effects of topography on simulated net primary productivity at landscape scale

Local topography significantly affects spatial variations of climatic variables and soil water movement in complex terrain. Therefore, the distribution and productivity of ecosystems are closely linked to topography. Using a coupled terrestrial carbon and hydrological model (BEPS-TerrainLab model), the topographic effects on the net primary productivity (NPP) are analyzed through four modelling experiments for a 5700 km(2) area in Baohe River basin, Shaanxi Province, northwest of China. The model was able to capture 81% of the variability in NPP estimated from tree rings, with a mean relative error of 3.1%. The average NPP in 2003 for the study area was 741 gCm(-2)yr(-1) from a model run including topographic effects on the distributions of climate variables and lateral flow of ground water. Topography has considerable effect on NPP, which peaks near 1350 m above the sea level. An elevation increase of 100 m above this level reduces the average annual NPP by about 25 gCm(-2). The terrain aspect gives rise to a NPP change of 5% for forests located below 1900 m as a result of its influence on incident solar radiation. For the whole study area, a simulation totally excluding topographic effects on the distributions of climatic variables and ground water movement overestimated the average NPP by 5%.     

Soil carbon storage in silvopasture and related land-use systems in the brazilian cerrado

Silvopastoral management of fast-growing tree plantations is becoming popular in the Brazilian Cerrado (savanna). To understand the influence of such systems on soil carbon (C) storage, we studied C content in three aggregate size classes in six land-use systems (LUS) on Oxisols in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The systems were a native forest, a treeless pasture, 24- and 4-yr-old eucalyptus ( sp.) plantations, and 15- and 4-yr-old silvopastures of fodder grass plus animals under eucalyptus. From each system, replicated soil samples were collected from four depths (0-10, 10-20, 20-50, and 50-100 cm), fractionated into 2000- to 250-, 250- to 53-, and <53-μm size classes representing macroaggregates, microaggregates, and silt + clay, respectively, and their C contents determined. Macroaggregate was the predominant size fraction under all LUS, especially in the surface soil layers of tree-based systems. In general, C concentrations (g kg soil) in the different aggregate size fractions did not vary within the same depth. The soil organic carbon (SOC) stock (Mg C ha) to 1-m depth was highest under pasture compared with other LUS owing to its higher soil bulk density. The soils under all LUS had higher C stock compared with other reported values for managed tropical ecosystems: down to 1 m, total SOC stock values ranged from 461 Mg ha under pasture to 393 Mg ha under old eucalyptus. Considering the possibility for formation and retention of microaggregates within macroggregates in low management-intensive systems such as silvopasture, the macroaggregate dynamics in the soil seem to be a good indicator of its C storage potential.     

Historical evolution of anthropogenic aluminum stocks and flows in Italy

Dynamic stocks and flows analysis was applied to the anthropogenic aluminum cycle in Italy in order to detect and quantify metal flows and in-use stocks over the years 1947–2009. The model utilized a top-down approach, including data for production, consumption, loss, and trade flows of aluminum. Seven end-use markets were considered, namely buildings and construction, transportation, consumer durables, machinery and equipment, electrical engineering, containers and packaging, and miscellaneous appliance types. The results of this dynamic stocks and flows analysis model quantified the contemporary anthropogenic reservoirs (or in-use stocks) of aluminum at about 320 kg per capita, mainly embedded within the transportation and building and construction sectors. Cumulative in-use stock represents approximately 11 years of supply at current usage rates (about 20 Mt versus 1.7 Mt/year), implying significant potential for recycling in the future as this stock comes out of use. Flow analysis revealed that Italy imports mainly unwrought aluminum and exports final products, while the main material losses occur during alumina refining and collection of old scrap: specifically, containers and packaging have the highest old scrap generation rate, but for the lowest recovery rate (50%). Increasing support to collection of scrap and initiatives oriented to aluminum recovery specifically would allow Italy to increase its reliance on domestic material, and may also allow a decline of the country import-dependence on primary sources. The dynamic stocks and flows model created here provides a quantitative historical record of the aluminum required by Italian society during important periods of development and provides guidance for future decision-making around the use of domestic secondary resources.     

Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2

The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO(2) concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990 s, averaging 189 Tg C yr(-1) (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100 without climate and CO(2) changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO(2) effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091-2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091-2100, with values of about 50 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50-200 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO(2) might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO(2) fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO(2) fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr(-1) under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr(-1) in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr(-1) in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. Under a CO(2) increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091-2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). The positive effect of CO(2) fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0-40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO(2) and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q(10) value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario. The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO(2) and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.     

Assessment of soil erosion under rainfed sugarcane in KwaZulu‐Natal,South Africa

Soil erosion from agricultural land use runoff is a major threat to the sustainability of soil composition and water resource integrity. Sugarcane is an important cash and food security crop in South Africa, subjected to an intensive soil erosion, and consequently, severe land degradation. This study aimed to investigate soil erosion and associated soil and cover factors under rainfed sugarcane, in a small catchment, KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa. Three replicated runoff plots were installed at different slope positions (down, mid and upslope) within cultivated sugarcane fields to monitor soil erosion during the 2016–2017 rainy season. On average, annual runoff (RF) was significantly greater from 10 m² plots with 1163.77 ± 2.63 l/m/year compared to 1 m² plots. However, sediment concentration (SC) was significantly lower in 10 m² (0.34 ± 0.04 g/l) compared to 1 m² (6.94 ± 0.24 g/l) plots. The annual soil losses (SL) calculated from 12 rainfall events was 58.36 ± 0.77 and 8.84 ± 0.20 t/ha from 1 m² and 10 m² plots, respectively. The 1 m² plot, SL (2.4 ± 1.41 ton/ha/year) in the upslope experienced 33% more loss than the midslope and 50% more loss than the downslope position. SL was relatively lower from the 10 m² plots than the 1 m² plots, which is explained by high sediment deposition at the greater plot scale. SL was negatively correlated with the soil organic carbon stocks (r = ?0.82) and soil surface cover (r = ?0.55). RF decreased with the increase of slope gradient (r = ?0.88) and soil infiltration rate (r = ?0.87). There were considerable soil losses from cultivated sugarcane fields with low organic matter. These findings suggest that to mitigate soil erosion, soil organic carbon stocks and vegetation cover needs to be increased through appropriate land management practices, particularly in cultivated areas with steep gradients.     

Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling

We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalized these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services.     

Phosphorus loading in the Frome catchment, UK: seasonal refinement of the coefficient modeling approach

This paper describes the results of an export coefficient modeling approach to predict total phosphorus (TP) loading in the Frome catchment, Dorset, UK from point and diffuse sources on a seasonal (monthly) basis in 1998 and on an annual basis for 1990-1998. The model predicted an annual TP load of 25 605 kg yr(-1), compared with an observed (measured) value of 23400 kg yr(-1). Monthly loads calculated using the export coefficient model agreed well with monthly observed values except in months of variable discharge, when observed values were low, probably due to infrequent, and therefore unrepresentative, sampling. Comparison between filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP) and TP concentrations observed in the period 1990-1997 showed that trends in FRP could be estimated from trends in TP. A sensitivity analysis (varying individual export coefficients by +/-10%) showed that sewage treatment works (STWs) (3.5%), tilled land (2.7%), meadow-verge-seminatural (1.0%), and mown and grazed turf (0.6%) had the most significant effect (percent difference from base contribution) on model prediction. The model was also used to estimate the effect of phosphorus stripping at STWs in order to comply with a pending change in the European Union wastewater directive. Theoretical reduction of TP from the largest STW in the catchment gave a predicted reduction in TP loading of 2174 kg yr(-1). This illustrates the value of this seasonal export coefficient model as a practical management tool.     

Quantifying Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics in the Jinsha Watershed, Upper Yangtze, China from 1975 to 2000

Quantifying the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is critical to our understanding of regional patterns of carbon budgets. Here we use the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System to simulate the terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the Jinsha watershed of China’s upper Yangtze basin from 1975 to 2000, based on unique combinations of spatial and temporal dynamics of major driving forces, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the Jinsha watershed ecosystems acted as a carbon sink during the period of 1975–2000, with an average rate of 0.36 Mg/ha/yr, primarily resulting from regional climate variation and local land use and land cover change. Vegetation biomass accumulation accounted for 90.6% of the sink, while soil organic carbon loss before 1992 led to a lower net gain of carbon in the watershed, and after that soils became a small sink. Ecosystem carbon sink/source patterns showed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity. Carbon sinks were associated with forest areas without disturbances, whereas carbon sources were primarily caused by stand-replacing disturbances. It is critical to adequately represent the detailed fast-changing dynamics of land use activities in regional biogeochemical models to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of regional carbon sink/source patterns.