Job level risk assessment using task level strain index scores: a pilot study.

This paper explores 2 methods of modifying the Strain Index (SI) to assess the ergonomic risk of multi-task jobs. Twenty-eight automotive jobs (15 cases and 13 controls) were studied. The first method is based on the maximum task SI score, and the second method is modeled on the NIOSH Composite Lifting Index (CLI) algorithm, named cumulative assessment of risk to the distal upper extremity (CARD). Significant odds ratios of 11 (CI 1.7-69) and 24 (CI 2.4-240) were obtained using the modified maximum task and CARD, respectively. This indicates that modification of the SI may be useful in determining the risk of distal upper extremity injury associated with a multi-task job.     

Using risk tolerance criteria to determine safety integrity levels for safety instrumented functions

Standards and industry guidelines for Safety Instrumented Systems (SISs) describe the use of hazard and risk analysis to determine the risk reduction required, or Safety Integrity Levels (SILs), of Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs) with reference to hazardous events and risk tolerance criteria for them. However, significant problems are encountered when putting this approach into practice. There is ambiguity in the meaning of the term hazardous event. Notably, even though it is a key concept in the process-sector-specific SIS standard, IEC 61511/ISA 84, it is not defined in the standard. Consequently, risk tolerance criteria for hazardous events are ill-defined and, therefore, they are not the most appropriate criteria to use. Most current approaches to SIL determination use them and therefore they are flawed fundamentally.An informed decision on the tolerability of risk for a facility cannot be made by determining only the tolerability of risk for individual hazardous events. Rather, the tolerability of the cumulative risk from all hazard scenarios and their hazardous events for a facility must be determined. Such facility risk tolerance criteria are the type used by regulators. This issue applies to all per event risk tolerance criteria. Furthermore, determining the tolerability of risk for a facility based only on the risks of single events, be they hazard scenarios or hazardous events, and comparing them to risk tolerance criteria for the events is not meaningful because there is no consideration of how many such events can actually occur and, therefore, no measure of the total risk. The risks from events should be summed for a facility and compared with overall facility risk tolerance criteria.This paper describes and illustrates SIL determination using a risk model implemented within the framework of Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA) that overcomes these problems. The approach allows the allocation of risk across companies, facilities, processes, process units, process modes, etc. to be managed easily.     

Drinking to cope and self-medication: Characteristics of jobs in relation to workers' drinking behavior

This research extends recent studies of the relationship between characteristics of jobs and patterns of workers' alcohol consumption. Working within a ‘generalization perspective ’whereby job conditions are seen as having important effects on the mental health and behaviors of workers in non-work settings, the current research derives and tests a model of four job-related factors as they influence three aspects of alcohol use; the simple frequency—quantity of drinking, escapist-oriented reasons for drinking, and a combination of heavier drinking with escapist-oriented definitions which is labeled ‘self-medication’. Analyses of data drawn from the 1973 Quality of Employment Survey (QES) indicate that the relationship between jobs and drinking behavior is more complex than previously conceptualized. Specifically, we find evidence that for working men characteristics of jobs affect levels of alcohol consumption and the incidence of self-medicating drinking. These findings support and refine job-based explanations of drinking behavior. The implications of these findings for subsequent research and model-specification are discussed.     

Perceptions of postural stability after transitioning to standing among construction workers

Falls are a leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries in the construction trades. This study explored construction workers’ self-reports of postural stability upon standing after working in different postures. One hundred and eighty-nine workers in 10 construction trades provided stability ratings by completing a written questionnaire. Additional data collected included age, gender, years of experience, and rating of overall balance. Construction workers rated their overall balance as high, furthermore, no difference was found between trades or age groups. Significant differences in stability ratings were provided for the various postures. The most commonly used non-erect postures (bent over at waist, squatting, and forward kneeling) resulted in the largest self-reports of instability. Sitting on elevated surface and sitting on level surface resulted in the highest levels of self-reported stability and are recommended when maintaining balance is a concern. Differences associated with construction trade and age were also found, but were thought to be attributed to differences in tasks performed since no differences were found when each posture was analyzed separately. The results suggest that the working posture used to complete a task affects the postural stability upon standing regardless of construction trade and age of worker. Findings may lead to recommendations for redesign of tasks or tools to reduce the use of certain working postures, particularly in high-risk environments such as construction.     

风险严重度指数法在毒气泄漏评价中的应用

为评价某区域或某设备潜在的毒气泄漏事故场景的风险水平,以对不同的风险等级进行风险控制和安全规划,详细介绍了工业事故风险评估方法ARAMIS所采用的风险严重度指数法.首先基于事故频率和后果的风险矩阵选取毒气泄漏事故场景;然后运用毒气当量浓度计算任意暴露时间下不同风险严重度等级所对应的特征距离,并根据同一风险等级内风险严重度指数与距离的线性关系计算任意点的风险严重度指数;最后应用1个实例分析了考虑所研究区域的风向概率后对风险严重度指数的真实影响,便于工厂或企业识别不同的风险等级,进行不同场景下风险水平的对比性研究,为其安全设计及风险分析提供了一种新的评估方法.     

Development of worksystem safety capability index (WSCI)

This study proposes a new way of analyzing and evaluating worksystem safety based on probability models, control charts, loss functions and safety capability index. The step-by-step procedures for development of worksystem safety capability index (WSCI) are presented. The development starts with the adoption of process approach to model safety. The key feature of this development is the effective assimilation of quality engineering concepts into safety study. A case study was done in an underground coal mining situation to operationalize the development. Time between occurrences (TBO) of injuries and number of injuries (NOI) per month are considered as safety performance variables. The application shows encouraging results for safety improvement through adoption of control charts, expected loss and WSCI. The development opportunity, application potential and future scope of research are discussed.     

基于风险指数RI的选址评价在LNG储备库中的应用

研究基于风险指数RI的选址评价方法,确定评价方法的框架和程序,并将该评价方法用于某拟建LNG储备库的选址.结果表明,沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸在拟建LNG储备库可能发生的事故中的后果最严重.以沸腾液体扩展蒸汽爆炸的计算结果为依据,在GIS中对LNG储备库进行缓冲区分析,得到直观显示的事故影响区域和影响对象.计算拟建LNG储备库的选址风险并与可接受风险水平进行比较,确定选址的合理性且适当调整周边布局.研究表明,基于风险指数RI的选址评价方法对合理确定重大工程选址是切实可行的.     

Development of a theoretical framework for the evaluation of risk connected to accidental oxygen releases

A short-cut methodology for a fast estimation of hazards from oxygen releases and the evaluation of safety distances is presented. Starting from a historical survey on accidents involving oxygen releases and consequent scenarios, the approach includes analytical models for the quantification of incremental hazards due to oxygen releases, in non-obstructed areas, both for continuous and nearly instantaneous scenarios, adopting a simple Gaussian dispersion model. An example of the application of the model in a real case-study and relevant quantitative results are presented.     

石化企业危险化工工艺风险等级评估指标体系研究

随着石化企业的迅猛发展,危险化学品的用量不断增加,生产工艺和条件也越趋苛刻,在带来巨大经济效益的同时,也存在重大安全事故隐患,因此石化企业危险工艺的风险评估显得尤为重要。考虑到目前国内还没有能够比较科学完整地评估石化企业危险化工工艺风险等级的安全评价方法,在国家安监总局划分的15种危险化工工艺的基础上,根据危险化工工艺表征涉及的影响因素,结合化工工艺的实际情况,选择具有典型代表意义的重要性评价指标作为研究对象,将危险化工工艺风险等级分为工艺固有危险性以及安全补偿两部分,其中固有危险性又分为目标层、准则层和因素层3个层次。采用理论分析法与专家咨询法筛选指标,最终建立了由67个具体指标组成的动态指标体系,从而为政府和企业加强安全管理提供了便利,进一步实现石化企业的本质安全化。     

石油化工企业环境风险分级评价指标体系研究

在现有研究基础上,从石化行业环境风险特点与现状着手,针对现有环境风险分级评价体系无法适应我国当前石化行业环境风险现状这一问题,对石化企业环境风险要素进行了梳理和分析.以此为基础从突发性环境风险、非突发性环境风险和选址敏感性三方面入手选取了石化企业环境风险分级评价指标,对各指标的含义及量化方法进行了分析,构建了石化企业环境风险分级评价指标体系.利用层次分析法确定体系指标权重,利用专家评分法对评价指标进行赋分,能够准确反映石化企业环境风险的实际情况.以天津滨海新区某石油化工企业为案例,验证了评价指标体系的有效性.     

尾矿库溃坝灾害因素分析及风险指标体系研究

我国尾矿库数量多、规模小、安全度水平低,较多中小尾矿库未经过正规设计,并且绝大多数尾矿库下游为生活区、工矿企业或重要城镇等,因此加强尾矿库风险管理,建立尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系和风险评判模型,对于减少和防止尾矿库溃坝事故的发生,确保尾矿库的安全运行,使之更好地为矿山安全生产服务,为国民经济健康持续快速发展服务等方面都具有重要意义.本文在总结国内外尾矿库事故特点的基础上,系统研究了尾矿坝的溃坝模式和溃坝路径,并基于尾矿坝指标的工程性质分析和相关性分析,研究并建立了尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系,该体系的建立为尾矿坝溃坝风险评判模型及评判方法的研究提供前提条件,可为尾矿库运行期的安全监管提供依据.     

The use of state workers' compensation administrative data to identify injury scenarios and quantify costs of work-related traumatic brain injuries

PROBLEM: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a public health problem but little is known about the nature of that problem in the working population. METHOD: The author used a national definition to identify cases in Washington State from workers' compensation (WC) hospital billing data, quantified the cost of WC insurance benefits using actuarial cost estimates, and identified high risk industries using ANSI Z16.2 typology. RESULTS: There were 928 cases of TBI with a lifetime claim cost of $159 million from the Washington State Fund (1994-2001). Sixty percent of injuries resulted in death or disability. The highest risks of TBI are concentrated in 16 industrial insurance risk classes and the highest costs in 19 North American Industry Classification codes. Injury scenarios were identified for nine industrial insurance risk classes. CONCLUSIONS: TBI is a disabling and costly workplace injury in the state of Washington, affecting even teenagers and seniors who are not generally considered to be part of the workforce. Injury typology codes provide useful information for improving workplace safety. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This research provides industry with quantitative information regarding the cost of work-related traumatic brain injury and the usefulness of using workers' compensation claims data to reduce the burden of workplace injury.     

The cut-off point for tympanic temperature as a heat strain index for evaluation of outdoor workers: a field study

Objectives. The aims of this study were (a) to assess the agreement coefficient between tympanic temperatures and the most popular and valid heat stress index, wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), in outdoor environments; (b) to determine a cut-off point for tympanic temperature as a heat strain index for evaluation of outdoor workers. Methods. 1452 measurements of WBGT index and tympanic temperature were recorded for outdoor workers from nine different climatic regions. Consistency of the WBGT and tympanic temperature were tested. The cut-off point for tympanic temperature in outdoor environments regarding WBGT evaluation was suggested based on obtained sensitivity and specificity from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results. The results showed that there were numerous situations in which WBGT exceeded the reference value, whilst the measured values of tympanic temperature rarely reached a permissible value for core temperature (38?°C). Therefore, appropriate consistency of results between the heat stress and strain indices was not achieved. Conclusion. The criterion of tympanic temperature equaling 37?°C was suggested as a cut-off point for tympanic temperature as a heat strain index for outdoor environment evaluation.     

基于SE-FA的现役装备改进风险评价指标体系研究

现役装备改进是在原有产品基础上,通过采用各种改进措施,对产品的战术技术性能和结构进行局部改善,以达到提高或改进装备性能,延长装备使用寿命的目的.现役装备改进是一个复杂的系统工程过程,制约因素多、技术难度大,风险在所难免.为确保改进任务顺利进行,必须及时开展风险分析和评价研究,从而预先采取针对性措施加以防范.研究分析了现役装备改进的风险因子,构建了风险评价指标体系,并运用结构熵理论对指标体系的结构有序度进行了评价,提出了相对优化方案.最后,运用因子分析方法(FA)对构建的指标体系进行了因子分析,验证了指标体系的合理性.     

基于MACD指标的民用机场安全风险趋势预测

为了解决民用机场安全趋势预测时所面临的预测方法主观性较大、预测结果不够科学,以及以伤亡事故信息作为预测源头数据的数据量不足等问题,首先,引入金融领域应用比较成熟的预测方法——异同移动平均线(Moving Av-erage Convergence/Divergence,MACD)指标预测方法,构建了民用机场安全风险趋势分析预测模型.该模型原理是运用两条不同速度的平滑移动平均线来计算两者的正负差——离差,再由离差的多日平均值计算离差平均值.通过观察离差值和离差平均值的方向、绝对位置和相对位置关系,将它们的同向、异向和交叉作为判断趋势翻转的时机.其次,依据《民用航空安全信息管理规定》(交通运输部令2016年第8号)、GB 3836.18-2010《爆炸性环境第18部分:本质安全系统》等相关的法律、法规及标准对安全风险信息的分类及收集范围进行了界定,并按照该安全风险信息的收集与分类方法收集了某机场3年的安全风险信息,运用上述模型进行了相关预测研究.最后,运用相关性分析及ABC管理图做了因素分析,给出了整改建议.结果表明,该模型方法能够比较贴近实际地预测企业的安全风险趋势情况,并能够从定性及定量两个维度提供解决问题的方法,为民用机场安全管理决策提供了一种新的思路.     

Development and evaluation of a risk management methodology for pedestrian surfaces

This paper describes the development and evaluation of the Pedestrian Surface (PS) priority indicator (PS priority indicator). This tool was developed to comply with Australian Standard AS 4360: 2004 (Risk Management). Pedestrian surfaces should be evaluated to identify hazards and assess the level of risk calculated in order to ensure that the surfaces do not have a significant level of risk. If a significant level of risk is present, then control measures should be implemented. Pedestrian surfaces for the purposes of this research are classified as same level surfaces (excluding stairways) where pedestrians on foot (or by wheelchair) travel from one place to another.     

Development of collision risk indicators for autonomous subsea inspection maintenance and repair

The objective of this article is to present a method for developing collision risk indicators applicable for autonomous remotely operated vehicles (AROVs), which are essential for promoting situation awareness in decisions support systems. Three suitable risk based collision indicators are suggested for AROVs namely, time to collision, mean time to collision and mean impact energy. The proposed indicators are classified into different thresholds; low, intermediate and high. An AROV flight path is simulated to gather input data to calculate the proposed indicators and three collision targets are established, i.e., subsea structure, seabed and a cooperating AROV. The proposed indicator development method together with the case study show a proof-of-concept that the combination of mean time to collision and mean impact energy indicators can identify risk prone waypoints in the AROV path. The method results in an overall risk picture for a given AROV path. The results may provide useful input in replanning of mission paths and for implementation of risk reducing measures. Even though the method focuses on collision risk, it can be used for other accident scenarios for AROVs.     

Application of a multi-plant QRA: A case study investigating the risk impact of the construction of a new plant on an existing chemical plant's risk levels

The construction of chemical clusters whereby a variety of chemical plants are located next to each other provides great economic benefits. However, in such clusters, due to the mere scale on which hazardous materials are processed, stored and handled, the potential of various accidents is much higher than in single companies. Furthermore, the close proximity of process installations and storage tanks in such areas gives rise to the risk of domino effects. Therefore, land use planning and layout design has always been a challenge within such clusters.In this paper, a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is carried out and used as a decision making tool to evaluate the acceptability of constructing a new chemical plant adjacent to an existing one. For this purpose, standard parameters such as individual risk and societal risk were quantified, before and after the new plant would come into operation. Given the experience of past accidents in the process industries, the likelihood of domino accidents in the two neighboring plants has also been analyzed.     

Application of fuzzy logic to explosion risk assessment

Safety and health of workers potentially being at risk from explosive atmospheres are regulated by separate regulations (ANSI/AIHA in USA and ATEX in the European Union). The ANSI/AIHA does not require risk assessment whereas it is compulsory for ATEX. There is no standard method to do that assessment. For that purpose we have applied the explosion Layer of Protection Analysis (ExLOPA), which enables semi-quantitative risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The ExLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA taking into account an explosion accident scenario at workplace. That includes typical variables appropriate for workplace explosion like occurrence of the explosive atmosphere, the presence of effective ignition sources, activity of the explosion prevention and mitigation independent protection layers as well as the severity of consequences. All those variables are expressed in the form of qualitative linguistic categories and relations between them are presented using expert based engineering knowledge, expressed in the form of appropriate set of rules. In this way the category of explosion risk may be estimated by the semi-quantitative analysis. However, this simplified method is connected with essential uncertainties providing over or under estimation of the explosion risk and may not provide real output data.In order to overcome this problem and receive more detailed quantitative results, the fuzzy logic system was applied. In the first stage called fuzzification, all linguistic categories of the variables are mapped by fuzzy sets. In the second stage, the number of relation between all variables of analysis are determined by the enumerative combinatorics and the set of the 810 fuzzy rules “IF-THEN” is received. Each rule enables determination of the fuzzy risk level for a particular accident scenario. In the last stage, called defuzzification, the crisp value of final risk is obtained using a centroid method. The final result of the risk presents a contribution of each risk category represented by the fuzzy sets (A, TA, TNA and NA) and is therefore more precise and readable than the traditional approach producing one category of risk only. Fuzzy logic gives a possibility of better insights into hazards and safety phenomena for each explosion risk scenario. It is not possible to receive such conclusions from the traditional ExLOPA calculation results. However it requires the application of computer-aided analyses which may be partially in conflict with a simplicity of ExLOPA.The practical example provides a comparison between the traditional results obtained by ExLOPA and by fuzzy ExLOPA methods.     

Crossover of stress,strain and resources from one spouse to another

The main focus of the study was the crossover of burnout and of coping resources from husbands to wives and vice versa. The study was carried out on 101 couples, male military officers and their wives, who were randomly selected by the Israel Defense Force computer. They filled out questionnaires that measured their level of burnout, job stress, work support, family support concerning work problems, and their sense of control. Findings reveal that the husbands' sense of control and burnout were positively related to the corresponding variables measured for their wives. To establish the crossover effect, the theoretical model was tested by structural equation analysis (LISREL), which showed a positive effect of wives' burnout on husbands' burnout, after controlling for the husbands' own job stress and coping resources. The husbands' burnout likewise affected their wives' burnout. Thus, a crossover of burnout was exhibited from husbands to wives and vice versa. Furthermore, for both sexes, sense of control had the highest impact on their own burnout and on their spouse's burnout, after controlling for their own job stress and resources. Thus, the spouse's sense of control was found to be an additional resistance resource working to the benefit of the other partner. The relevance of these findings to burnout prevention is discussed.