基于不确定性分析的城市总体规划环评方法与案例研究

围绕城市总体规划特点,在分析识别规划经济增长和用地布局方案中存在的多种不确定性的基础上,以产业和用地为基本评估单元,综合运用蒙特卡罗随机采样技术和HSY算法及地理信息系统,建立了基于结构与空间不确定性分析的规划环评方法和系统评估模型.以大连城市发展规划对近岸海域的环境影响为例,说明该方法的具体运用.案例研究结果表明,规划年大连市入海污染物排放特征和环境敏感行业表现出较大的空间差异性,局部地区污染物排放量超出环境控制目标值的概率较大.     

城市总体规划区地质灾害危险性评估研究

以河南省新密市城市总体规划区为例,结合评估区地质环境条件和地质灾害特征,进行了地质灾害危险性现状评估。评估区主要地质灾害类型为滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、地面塌陷、地面沉降、地裂缝、河岸塌岸、地面不均匀沉陷。在此基础上,结合规划建设用地分类,进行了城市总体规划区地质灾害危险性预测评估和综合评估,并进行了规划建设用地适宜性评价。指出在城市总体规划区地质灾害危险性评估中,规划建设用地类别的变化将可能5I起地质灾害危险性评估结果的变化,地质灾害危险性与规划建设用地适宜性并不总是“危险性大区——适宜性差”“危险性中等区——基本适宜”这样简单的对应关系,评估成果一般难以满足建设用地地质灾害危险性评估的需要。     

水资源规划优化技术研究进展及展望

针对水资源管理与规划的发展过程,详细论述了水资源系统管理与规划中常用优化技术的国内外研究成果及应用.根据是否考虑了模型参数或者模型结构的不确定性问题,将优化模型分为确定性优化模型和不确定性优化模型,通过对不确定性优化模型的介绍指出了不确定性优化是当前水资源系统优化的热点,同时指出未来不确定性优化技术发展方向等.     

区域用海规划面积合理性分析方法初探

区域规划项目用海本身就是一个新领域,而区域规划用海面积和理性分析也是一个新难点。用地控制指标法是以《城市用地分类与规划建设用地标准》为标准,通过累加规划范围内每种土地类型的具体用地指标,分析整个区域用海面积的合理性。本文以曹妃甸综合服务区工程项目为例,对区域规划项目在海域使用论证工作中用海面积合理性分析方法——用地控制指标法进行了初步的探讨。以期不断改进区域用海规划面积合理性分析的技术方法。     

污染物排放总量控制系统的不确定性分析

本文将不确定性分析的基本理论与方法引入污染物排放总量控制系统这一典型而重大的环境系统分析与决策领域,目的是要分析处理在污染物排放总量控制规划与管理中普遍存在着的自然和人为两方面的不确定性问题,为进行污染物排放总量控制的规划与管理决策者提供分析和解决问题的新思想和工具.     

国家环境保护规划评估的语义建模技术方法研究

在确定环境保护规划文本语义解析目标的基础上,列举了规划文本的形式分析和内容分析方法,研究提出了规划评估的两类建模技术:基于驱动力的模型构建技术和基于利益驱动的模型构建技术,并针对语义模型构建相关技术的未来研究方向提出建议:(1)推广计算机信息搜索与统计技术在文本形式分析技术方法领域的应用;(2)关注评估过程中的利益相关方的主张、焦虑、争议以及相应的解决办法.     

生态市建设规划实施成效评估研究——以福州生态市建设规划为例

开展生态市建设规划成效评估是检验规划实施成效的重要方法,文中以福州市生态市建设规划为例,探讨了生态市建设规划实施评估的原则和评估技术路线,对规划实施情况进行总结回顾,对规划实施的主要措施、规划指标体系和重点项目进行成效评估,分析了规划实施存在的主要问题,提出下一步规划实施建议.     

实现大气环境高质量路径多情景分析 ——以南京市为例

在界定城市生态环境高质量内涵的基础上,分析了南京市大气环境状态特征,设计了惯性发展、规划发展、协调发展3种发展情景,分析了不同情境下南京市大气环境高质量的实现路径及政策需求。结果表明:惯性发展情景实现难度较大,需要突破资源能源瓶颈、产业发展惯性以及大规模治理资金等约束;规划发展情景下实现存在较大不确定性,主要受规划实施成效和社会共治体系建设等影响;协调发展情景下实现大气环境高质量可能性最大,需要建立经济社会发展的大气环境影响效应动态评估机制,优化产业结构、能源结构、运输结构和用地结构,完善生态环境政策制度。     

化工规划项目的水环境影响评价研究

目前没有针对规划项目的水环境影响评价的技术导则,化工规划项目具有建设内容复杂、建设范围大、建设周期长等特点,且不确定性强,产生污染物种类多、数量大,对周边区域的环境影响复杂.针对化工规划项目的水环境影响评价特点与评价要求,参考国内现有行业标准规范与水评价导则技术要求,文章通过案例应用对化工规划项目的水环境影响评价从规划方案水污染源强分析、水环境影响预测、水环境承载力的测算及环境减缓措施等方面给出具体说明与实施方法,为今后规划环境影响评价工作提供依据和技术参考.     

水资源规划优化技术研究进展及展望

文章针对水资源管理与规划的发展过程,详细论述了水资源系统管理与规划中常用优化技术的国内外研究成果及应用。根据是否考虑了模型参数或者模型结构的不确定性问题,将优化模型分为确定性优化模型和不确定性优化模型,同时对每种优化技术做了简要介绍,通过对不确定性优化模型的详细介绍指出了不确定性优化是当前水资源系统优化的热点;同时指出当前不确定性优化技术存在的问题,未来不确定性优化技术发展方向为多种不确定性以及多重效益的综合考虑等。     

Hierarchical methodological framework to improve Policy Environmental Assessment: Based on policy layer research

This study explores the current implementation challenges of the Policy Environmental Assessment (PEA), including the implementation of a far richer, more diverse (at macro level), and better understanding of PEA and integration with decision making. The results contribute to the analysis of PEA through different hierarchies of assessment. Stemming from the theory and practice of policy, a concept of PEA hierarchies is proposed including the uppermost PEA, upper-lower PEA, and lowermost PEA. Afterward, the differences of the three hierarchies are interpreted, in terms of aims, principles, processes, and methods. The evaluation of the policy environmental impacts from different lens helps solve the complexities of policies and identify opportunities for improvement of PEA.     

Managing abandoned farmland to control the impact of re-vegetation on the environment. The state of the art in Europe

Background and aimsIn the last decades, large areas undergo a revegetation process as a result of land abandonment, producing significant environmental and landscape impacts. In this paper, revegetation impacts are identified. We present the solutions proposed by scientists to control the negative impacts of revegetation, from a literature review from studies carried out in Europe.ResultsSome scientists suggest letting the revegetation process continued to contribute to the naturalisation of the landscape, reduce soil erosion, increase carbon sequestration and encourage recreational use of the territory. Other scientists, however, suggest the need to control the revegetation processes and retrieve abandoned land with productive purposes (extensive livestock and leisure), environmental objectives (reduction of fires and increasing biodiversity) and preserve cultural landscapes.ConclusionThe scrubland clearing and extensive livestock is an appropriate strategy to manage abandoned lands, combining environmental, landscape and socio-economic benefits.     

澜沧江流域云南段土地利用格局变化及环境影响分析

应用1986与2000年TM遥感影像解译生成的澜沧江流域云南段土地利用现状图,在ArcGIS 8.3软件的支持下,进行图形叠加、空间分析和数据统计分析,获取该流域1986-2000年土地利用格局变化图和面积转换矩阵,揭示了该流域1986和2000年土地利用与土地覆被的空间分布规律及14年来的变化特征,并对澜沧江流域云南段14年来土地利用变化对环境产生的影响进行分析.结果表明,澜沧江流域云南段土地利用格局的变化引发了流域水土流失、生物多样性降低、景观破碎化等一系列环境问题.      

全球主要国家环境可持续性综合评估——基于碳、水、土地的足迹-边界整合分析

随着地球生态系统的交互性、复杂性与整体性特征日益显现,综合分析和比较各类人为环境影响及其最大安全阈值,对于从整体上判断人类活动的可持续性、揭示承载力的超载程度具有重要意义.基于环境足迹和行星边界两项新概念,运用极差法和目标距离法对全球30 个主要国家的碳、水和土地赤字数据进行了标准化与权重化处理,得到一个复合的国家环境可持续性压力指数,并结合3 项环境赤字的实际分布状况,将所有国家划分为4 类:环境强可持续性(3 国)、环境弱可持续性(8 国)、环境弱不可持续性(9 国)、环境强不可持续性(10 国).总体上,环境可持续性压力呈现南美洲国家低、亚洲和非洲国家居中、欧美发达国家高的地域格局,亚洲是4 类国家并存的唯一大洲.全球的碳、水和土地足迹-边界比分别为3.0、0.6、0.7,表明就全球尺度而言,温室气体排放已处于严重超载状态,水资源消费和土地利用尚处于盈余状态,这与现有文献结果相吻合,从而在一定程度上验证了本研究结论的可靠性.     

不同应用层次的环境风险评价技术方法的研究进展

针对环境风险评价的技术方法从它在建设项目、区域、规划环境影响评价三个层次的应用出发对其发展进行了全面的总结、分析。最后提出了要重视现阶段规划层次的环境风险评价的工作。建议规划的环境风险评价总体上可以借鉴区域环境风险评价的方法,在此基础上针对规划中风险源的布局尚未明确的特点可以尝试引入环境敏感点的位置作为约束条件运用运筹学的方法对规划区域的污染（风险）源进行优化布局。     

农村土地整理中的生态环境保护问题研究

土地整理是促进土地资源合理利用、提高土地利用率及实现耕地总量动态平衡的一项重要的技术手段。然而土地整理对植被系统、生物多样性、土壤系统和水环境等都会产生一定的不利影响。针对中国土地整理工作的现状。提出了提高生态保护意识、合理推进土地整理产业化与加强生态环境影响评价研究等几个方面的建议,以达到土地资源的可持续利用。     

Method for assessing impacts on life support functions (LSF) related to the use of ‘fertile land’ in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

Degradation of soil quality is a major concern due to the scarcity of fertile land, and needs to be properly addressed in the environmental assessment of agro-forestry systems. This paper addresses the main issues arising in assessing the impacts of fertile land use on “Life Support Functions” in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). These issues include the assessment of occupation and transformation impacts, the references against which such impacts should be measured, and the concept of natural relaxation versus backup technology for recovery from the impacts. The alternative (or reference) situation is defined using the concept of consequential LCA, which facilitates clarification of the allocation issues arising due to successive land uses. This paper presents soil organic matter (SOM) as a robust indicator for soil quality; even though it does not fully consider all aspects of soil functioning, SOM has been often recognised as the best stand-alone indicator for soil quality. Impacts on biodiversity are not included in this indicator and should be assessed in parallel. Alternative data sources for practical implementation of the method are suggested in a hierarchical way, including locally specific data sets describing changes in SOM; mechanistic models for the prediction of SOM evolution; and general data sources for simplified analyses. Thanks to its flexibility in data collection the method is applicable to any agricultural or forestry LCA to fill an important gap in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) of land use.     

基于3S技术的青藏公路改建工程环境影响评价方法

通过青藏公路格尔木至拉萨段改建完善工程的环境影响评价实践,凝练出以Landsat7 ETM+、Landsat5 TM、Geoeye等遥感影像为数据源,采用数据融合、GIS空间分析、光谱差值法和目视判读法等方法,对施工前后公路沿线土地利用变化信息进行提取,并构建干扰斑块数量、干扰强度和干扰幅度等评价大型线性工程施工期干扰强度的新指标和新思路.结果表明,研究区域内土地利用类型的变化主要是高寒草甸向裸地或建筑的转变,同时也提取出少量植被恢复斑块.变化斑块集中分布在公路两侧10~50m范围内,对区域干扰幅度较小.通过工程监理与实地考察数据的验证,该方法能准确提取评价区域土地利用变化斑块,提出的干扰指标能有效提高变化信息的分析精度.     

Evaluating the sustainability of diets–combining environmental and nutritional aspects

This study examined two methods for jointly considering the environmental impact and nutritional quality of diets, which is necessary when designing policy instruments promoting sustainable food systems. Both methods included energy content and 18 macro- and micronutrients in the diet, the climate impact, land use and biodiversity damage potential. In Method 1, the content of different nutrients in the diet was normalised based on recommended intake or upper levels for average daily intake and presented together with the environmental impacts, which were normalised according to estimated sustainable levels. In Method 2, the nutritional quality of different diets was considered by calculating their nutrient density score, and the environmental impact was then expressed per nutrient density score. Three diets were assessed; a diet corresponding to Nordic recommendations, the current average Swedish diet and a lifestyle Low Carbohydrate-High Fat (LCHF) diet. Method 1 clearly showed that the climate impact was far beyond the sustainable level for all diets, while land use was within the sustainability limit for the recommended diet, but not the other two. Comparisons based on nutrient density scores depended on the score used, but the current and LCHF diets had more impact than the recommended diet (less livestock products) for all but one score. Over- and under-consumption of nutrients were clearly shown by Method 1 but not possible to distinguish with Method 2, as normalisation was not possible, making it difficult to evaluate the absolute scale of the impacts when nutrient density scores were used. For quantitative information on the environmental and nutritional impacts of diets as support in decision-making processes, it is important that data presentation is transparent. There is limited value in reducing results to a low number of indicators that are easy to read, but difficult to interpret, e.g. nutrient density score. Method 1 allows combined assessment of diets regarding environmental impact and nutritional intake and could be useful in dietary planning and in development of dietary recommendations and other policy instruments to achieve more sustainable food systems.     

农业经营规模化发展对环境效率的影响——基于地块层面的实证分析

为探析农业规模化经营与农业环境可持续性之间的关系,对农业经营规模对农业环境效率的影响进行理论分析,并在此基础上构建了物料平衡原则下农业环境效率测算模型和农业环境效率影响模型.基于2004~2016年浙江省农户水稻种植地块层面的面板数据,实证检验了土地面积、劳动投入、资本投入和农业产出等农业经营规模指标对农业环境效率的影响.结果显示,农业规模化发展将因投入和产出的扩张以多种方式影响其环境效率,其中土地面积规模与农业环境效率之间呈倒U型关系,劳动投入和资本投入对农业生产环境效率均有负向的影响,而农业产出规模的增加将促进农业环境效率的提升.