Differentiation of countries’ future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: An assessment of the “South–North Dialogue” Proposal

The “South–North Dialogue” Proposal, developed by researchers from developing and industrialised countries, outlined equitable approaches to mitigation. These approaches were based on the criteria of responsibility, capability and potential to mitigate, and include deep cuts in industrialised (Annex I) countries and differentiated mitigation commitments for developing countries. This paper quantitatively analyses the implications of the proposal for countries’ emissions and costs. The analysis focuses on a “political willingness” scenario and four stabilisation scenarios. The analysis shows that stringent stabilisation targets imply that many developing countries would have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries take on ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. The “political willingness scenario” will probably not suffice to limit a warming of the Earth's atmosphere to below 2 °C.     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

碳中和战略下煤矿区生态碳汇体系构建及功能提升展望

煤炭资源开发引起矿区生态碳汇总量的降低,在碳中和战略下探索煤矿区生态碳汇提升技术和模式具有重大意义.通过研究构建了包括管理模式与技术方法两个层次,土壤碳汇、植被碳汇和湿地碳汇这3个主要类别,矿区生态碳汇规划、碳汇监测调查、碳汇功能提升和碳汇损失防控等多项技术内容的煤矿区生态碳汇体系框架,明确了煤矿区的主要生态碳汇类型(...     

Full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget in the forestry of China

Forest management to increase carbon (C) sinks and reduce C emissions and forest resource utilization to store C and substitute for fossil fuel have been identified as attractive mitigation strategies. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget of carbon pools and sinks in China are not fully understood, and the forestry net C sink must be determined. The objective of this study was to analyze potential forest management mitigation strategies by evaluating the GHG emissions from forest management and resource utilization and clarify the forestry net C sink, and its driving factors in China via constructing C accounting and net mitigation of forestry methodology. The results indicated that the GHG emissions under forest management and resource utilization were 17.7 Tg Ce/year and offset 8.5% of biomass and products C sink and GHG mitigation from substitution effects from 2000 to 2014, resulting in a net C sink of 189.8 Tg Ce/year. Forest resource utilization contributed the most to the national forestry GHG emissions, whereas the main driving factor underlying regional GHG emissions varied. Afforestation dominated the GHG emissions in the southwest and northwest, whereas resource utilization contributed the most to GHG emissions in the north, northeast, east, and south. Furthermore, decreased wood production, improved product use efficiency, and forests developed for bioenergy represented important mitigation strategies and should be targeted implementation in different regions. Our study provided a forestry C accounting in China and indicated that simulations of these activities could provide novel insights for mitigation strategies and have implications for forest management in other countries.     

Achieving forest carbon information with higher certainty: A five-part plan

International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.     

The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation

Recent proposals at the UNFCCC meeting in Bali in December 2007 suggest that a 2% levy on the CDM could finance adaptation costs in developing regions. Other proposals include extending the scope of the levy to emissions trading. This study applies an Integrated Assessment Model to gain insight in the interactions between adaptation costs, residual damages and mitigation costs and to analyse the effectiveness of a 2% levy on both the CDM and emissions trading from developing countries. We show that adaptation is especially important in lower income regions where damages are higher. The revenues of a 2% levy strongly depend on both the climate mitigation target and the burden-sharing regime. A more stringent climate mitigation target results in more emissions trade and, in the longer run, less need for adaptation. Both factors increase the share of adaptation costs that can be funded. The burden-sharing regime strongly affects the revenues of a 2% levy as well: relatively more stringent targets for developed countries increase the revenues of a 2% levy. However, in the next two decades the share of adaptation that can be financed remains well below 20% in most cases. Additional funding mechanisms are therefore necessary to substantially finance adaptation costs in developing countries.     

Trees as carbon sinks and sources in the European Union

The carbon (C) sinks and sources of trees that may be accounted for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012 were estimated for the countries of the European Union (EU) based on existing forest inventory data. Two sets of definitions for the accounted activities, afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, were applied. Applying the definitions by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the trees were estimated to be a C source in eight and a C sink in seven countries, and in the whole EU a C source of 5.4 Tg year⁻¹. Applying the definitions by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the trees were estimated to be a C source in three and a C sink in 12 countries, and in the whole EU a C sink of 0.1 Tg year⁻¹. These estimates are small compared with the C sink of trees in all EU forests, 63 Tg year⁻¹, the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of the EU, 880 Tg C year⁻¹, and the reduction target of the CO₂ emissions, 8%. In individual countries, the estimated C sink of the trees accounted for under Article 3.3 was at largest 8% and the C source 12% compared with the CO₂ emissions.     

Graphical strategies for design of evaporation crystallization networks for environmental wastewater applications

This paper introduces graphical strategies for the design of an evaporation/crystallization network for ternary wastewater environmental applications. Sources, sinks and other streams are located on a ternary composition diagram. While a source is any wastewater stream that has the potential to be recycled, a sink is any unit in the process that can accept sources. The proposed methodology is extremely simple to understand and implement, as it only requires basic solid-liquid phase equilibria data and uses lever arm principles to generate alternative process designs. Geometric constructions are carried out on the ternary composition diagram and the respective lever arms are used to determine intermediate flow rates in the evaporation/crystallization network. The relative locations and flow rates of the sources and sinks under consideration, as well as the unique shape of the solid-liquid equilibrium, drive the design of the separation (via evaporation/crystallization) network. Some generic structures are proposed for a typical evaporation and crystallization network. Once the general problem statement has been defined, special cases consisting of a single source-single sink, single source-two sinks and two sources-single sink are described. These special cases are representative of commonly occurring industrial wastewater design problems. Several graphical insights are listed that allow one to represent evaporation and crystallization operations on a ternary triangular composition diagram and avoid mathematical complexity. The possibility of bypassing a part of the initial feed streams is also considered. Certain feasible composition regions are identified on the ternary composition diagram for cases dealing with multiple sources and sinks. The methodology is useful in pre-screening and eliminating certain sources/sinks and is readily applicable to cases with lower number of sources and sinks. A case study involving the ammonium nitrate manufacturing process is included to demonstrate the broad applicability and value of the proposed approach.     

Meeting Concentration Targets in the Post-Kyoto World: Does Kyoto Further a Least Cost Strategy?

Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.     

高度城市化地区碳汇资源基本特征及其提升策略

作为全球碳循环和当前低碳发展的重要组成内容之一,城市碳汇资源研究受到广泛关注.以高度城市化的深圳市为例,利用IPCC缺省碳汇系数法和相关研究模型,分析了城市碳汇资源的基本特征.结果显示:深圳市2005年碳汇总量约为347.85×104 t,其中林地、耕地、草地、湿地和海洋的碳汇总量分别为317.52×104、4.50×104、2.10×104、12.60×104和11.13×104 t.碳汇资源持续减少、碳汇资源量较低、碳汇品质较差、碳汇资源保护形势严峻、碳汇能力提升压力较大等是当前深圳碳汇资源的主要特征,表明要推动高度城市化地区低碳生态城市建设,必须重视城市碳汇资源相关工作的开展,促进碳汇资源持续增加和碳汇品质持续提升.结合深圳城市发展实际,从碳汇资源保护、碳汇资源建设、碳汇品质提升、碳汇服务交易等角度提出了深圳城市碳汇资源提升的主要策略.      

Monitoring and economic factors affecting the economic viability of afforestation for carbon sequestration projects

The Kyoto Protocol is the first step towards achieving the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and aims among others to promote ‘the protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs’. To encourage afforestation for carbon sequestration a project must be economically viable. This study uses a model to analyse the impact on project viability of a range of carbon monitoring options, international carbon credit value and discount rate, applied to a Pinus radiata afforestation project in New Zealand. Monitoring carbon in conjunction with conventional forest inventory shows the highest return. Long-term average carbon accounting has lower accounting costs, compared to annual and 5 yearly accounting, as monitoring is only required every 5–10 years until the long-term average is attained. In this study we conclude that monitoring soil carbon stocks is not economically feasible using any of the accounting methods, when carbon is valued at US$ 10/t. This conclusion may be relevant to forest carbon sequestration projects elsewhere in the world and suggests care is needed in selecting the appropriate carbon monitoring options to avoid the risk that costs could be higher than any monetary benefits from terrestrial carbon sequestration. This would remove any commercial incentive to afforest for carbon sequestration reasons and severely limit the use of forest sinks as part of any package of measures addressing the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC.     

The Kyoto Protocol could make a difference for the optimal forest-based CO2 mitigation strategy: some results from GORCAM

The Kyoto Protocol was agreed on by more than 150 nations in December, 1997 and (if and when ratified) will establish international commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Under the Kyoto Protocol, some of the carbon emissions and removals within the land-use change and forestry sector can be counted toward a country's commitments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. In addition to the impacts that land-use practices have on CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, changes in the carbon stocks of forests (possibly including forest soils) caused by the direct human activities afforestation, reforestation and deforestation and taking place in the `first commitment period' (2008–2012), are to be accounted for under the Kyoto Protocol. Credits for carbon sinks in the biosphere are limited to projects initiated since 1990. A modified version of the model GORCAM has been used to assess eligible emission-reduction credits under the Kyoto regime and to illustrate how the optimal forest-based strategy for carbon dioxide mitigation might change under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol offers rewards for only some of the changes in carbon stocks that might occur and hence the forestry project that produces the most emission reduction credits under the Kyoto Protocol is not necessarily the same project that produces the greatest benefit for net emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Supplementing the Protocol with appropriate definitions, interpretations and agreements could help to make sure that it does not provide incentive for activities that run counter to the objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

The Kyoto Protocol: provisions and unresolved issues relevant to land-use change and forestry

This paper describes the relevant text of the Kyoto Protocol and its implications for land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities and addresses some of the technical issues that merit further consideration and clarification before the treaty comes into force. Although the phrasing of the Protocol is sometimes ambiguous and the opportunities limited, the Protocol does provide for some selected forest-related activities to be used to meet national commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To implement the forest-related portions of the Protocol, most importantly: (1) a clear definition for the word ‘reforestation' is required, (2) contradictory wording in Article 3.3 needs to be clarified to establish how credits are to be measured, (3) further thought should be given to the sentence in Article 3.7 which provides that countries with a net carbon sink in LUCF in 1990 cannot include emissions from land-use change in their 1990 baseline, whereas countries with a net carbon source in LUCF can include those emissions in their 1990 baseline, (4) the rules and baseline issues for joint implementation and the clean development mechanism need to be clarified and (5) inclusion of additional forest management activities needs to be considered.     

Optimization of hydrogen distribution systems with pressure constraints

Hydrogenation units are often operated at high pressure, requiring the use of compressors which are one of the most expensive chemical processing equipment. Optimizing a hydrogen network should therefore take into consideration not only purity and flowrate constraints but also pressure requirements. In this paper, based on the hydrogen surplus diagram approach, the average pressure profiles of hydrogen sources and sinks are proposed through the introduction of a system’s minimum pressure drop Δp. Combined with the traditional purity profiles, whether a source can meet a sink either for hydrogen concentration or for pressure requirements can be determined intuitively. In cases where the pressure of a source is not sufficient for a sink, installing a hydrogen compressor or using another source with higher purity and pressure could be potential solutions. A cost equation is established to determine which of the two solutions is economically more viable. For different matching situations between sources and sinks, strategies for optimum placement of compression equipment within a given hydrogen network are proposed. A case study is used to illustrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

What contribution can tree plantations make towards meeting Australia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol?

The Kyoto Protocol has been drafted to bring about an overall reduction in net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Australia has agreed to limit its increase of net greenhouse gas emissions to 8% between 1990 and 2010. While this target is not as tight as that of other parties to the Protocol, it nonetheless constitutes a significant reduction of net emissions below business-as-usual projections, and it will require significant policy initiatives to achieve this reduction. The Kyoto Protocol allows some carbon sequestration by vegetation sinks to be offset against CO₂ emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. This paper aims to estimate the contribution that forestation projects could make towards meeting Australia’s commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. It concludes that new plantations could sequester between 0.6 and 7 MtC yr⁻¹ over the commitment period (2008–2012) and offset between about 0.5 and 6% of Australia’s 1990 greenhouse gas emissions. The different estimates depend on the area of eligible plantations that will be established from 1999 onwards and whether plantations will be allowed to grow through to the end of the commitment period or will be in short-rotation stands that may be harvested before 2012. The maximum emission offset can only be achieved if new plantations are established at a rate of 100,000 ha yr⁻¹, which is equivalent to the Australian Government’s target under the 2020 vision. It is likely that sufficient suitable land would be available in Australia to achieve the required establishment rates. However, while such a contribution by vegetation sinks would be helpful, it would not, on its own, be sufficient for Australia to meet its required greenhouse gas emission target.     

Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050

The European Union (EU) has advocated an emission reduction target for developed countries of 80% to 95% below the 1990 level by 2050, and a global reduction target of 50%. Developing countries have resisted the inclusion of these targets in both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements. This paper analyses what these targets would imply for emission targets, abatement costs and energy consumption of developing countries, taking into account the conditional emission reduction pledges for 2020. An 80% reduction target for developed countries would imply more stringent per capita emission targets for developing countries than developed countries by 2050. Moreover, abatement costs of developing countries would be higher than those of developed countries. An 85% to 90% reduction target for developed countries would result in similar per capita emission targets and abatement costs for developed and developing countries by 2050. Total reduction targets for developing countries would range from 30% to 40% below 2005 levels by 2050 and from 30% to 35% above 2005 levels by 2030. The 2030 target for China would be 40% to 45% above 2005 levels, compared to a target for the EU of 45% to 50% below 1990 and for the United States of America (USA) 30% to 35% below 1990. Emission target trajectories for Brazil, South Africa and China would peak before 2025 and for India by around 2025. From the analysis, we may conclude that from the viewpoint of developing countries either developed countries increase their target above 85%, and/or make substantial side-payments.     

中国森林碳汇的空间溢出效应与影响因素——基于大陆31个省（市、区）森林资源清查数据的空间计量分析

科学估算各地区森林碳汇量并探讨其空间关联性特征是制定差异化碳汇发展政策的重要基础。根据1988—2013年中国大陆31个省（市、区）的6次森林资源清查数据,论文利用森林蓄积量扩展法测算了各地区的森林碳汇量,进而检测和比较了省域间碳汇总量空间关联性的方向和强弱,最后运用空间计量模型分析了碳汇的溢出效应与影响因素。结果表明：1）我国的森林碳汇量整体呈上升态势,各地区间碳汇量差异明显,其中西藏、黑龙江等地区碳汇量丰富,而上海、北京等地则碳汇增长率较快;2）研究期内的Moran’s I指数整体表现为倒“S”型的波动变化特征,全国森林碳汇在省域空间分布上的差异性并不是随机的,而是具备一定关联性;3）我国森林碳汇存在显著的近邻空间溢出效应,森林资源采伐、森林受灾程度和降水量等因素对森林碳汇水平的影响显著。因此,研究认为：我国在发挥森林生态功能时,应当考虑省份间的地理区位因素,合理制定兼具差异化和协调性的森林碳汇发展政策。     

Article 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol: consequences for industrialised countries’ commitment,the monitoring needs,and possible side effects

In the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries have agreed to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. To achieve that target, direct human induced activities initiated in the Land-use Change and Forestry sector since 1990, shall be included. However, the wording in the Protocol has caused confusion. The IPCC has been requested to deliver a Special Report on Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry issues arising from this Protocol. In the present study a limited initial assessment of the implications of alternative interpretations of Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation (ARD), addition of the soils compartment, the selection of additional activities, and feasibility of monitoring was done for a limited number of countries.The results show that it is possible to keep the biosphere articles in the Protocol even though we had to make several assumptions concerning for example, areas of application and effectiveness of additional activities. The consequences of alternative interpretations for ARD have a large impact on the countries’ assigned amount; varying from a compensation of 26% of total national emissions (Forestry interpretation for Sweden) to an addition of an extra 13% of the emissions (Global interpretation for Australia). Through selection of a large set of additional activities, most of the studied industrialised countries achieve more sequestration than the reduction of emissions they have committed themselves to. Methods for monitoring are available, but there is no one ideal method. Depending on scale and site: a combination of forest inventory with flux measurements and remote sensing is proposed.