A Knowledge-Based Systems Approach to Design of Spatial Decision Support Systems for Environmental Management

/ This paper describes a framework for designing spatial decision support systems for environmental management using a knowledge-based systems approach. An architecture for knowledge-based spatial decision supportsystems (KBSDSS) is presented that integrates knowledge-based systems with geographical information systems (GIS) and other problem-solving techniques. A method based on spatial influence diagrams is developed for representation of environmental problems. The spatial influence diagram provides an interface through which knowledge-based systems techniques can be applied to build capabilities for problem formulation, automated design, and execution of a solution process. In addition to the flexibility and developmental advantages of knowledge-based systems, the KBSDSS incorporates expert knowledge to provide assistance for structuring spatial influence diagrams and executing a solution process that automatically integrates the GIS, data base, knowledge base, and different types of models. The framework is illustrated with a system, known as the Islay Land Use Decision Support System (ILUDSS), designed to assist planners in strategic planning of land use for the development of the island of Islay, off the west coast of Scotland.KEY WORDS: Geographical information systems; Spatial decision support systems; Knowledge-based systems; Spatial influence diagrams; Environmental management     

Using Public Participation Geographic Information Systems to Identify Places of Watershed Service Provisioning

In this study, we used public participation geographic information systems methods to collect spatial data identifying places that stakeholders in Mobile Bay, Alabama think are important providers of watershed services. These methods allowed us to spatially analyze participatory data from general public respondents and directly compare them with other scientific data in a geographic information systems database. This study identified which places in the region participants believe are important providers of specific watershed services, including fish nurseries, storm protection, flood protection, and water quality protection, which would likely have public support for conservation. Additionally, we assessed the accuracy of participant watershed service identification using land cover data to identify inconsistencies and participant knowledge gaps. This information can be used to target outreach education efforts. We found that the accuracy with which participants correctly identified places with the necessary land cover to provide each service varied considerably. We believe this to be a useful tool for managers to elicit stakeholder input and to identify knowledge gaps regarding the provisioning of watershed services.     

Identifying Potential Conflict Associated with Oil and Gas Exploration in Texas State Coastal Waters: A Multicriteria Spatial Analysis

Recent interest in expanding offshore oil production within waters of the United States has been met with opposition by groups concerned with recreational, environmental, and aesthetic values associated with the coastal zone. Although the proposition of new oil platforms off the coast has generated conflict over how coastal resources should be utilized, little research has been conducted on where these user conflicts might be most intense and which sites might be most suitable for locating oil production facilities in light of the multiple, and often times, competing interests. In this article, we develop a multiple-criteria spatial decision support tool that identifies the potential degree of conflict associated with oil and gas production activities for existing lease tracts in the coastal margin of Texas. We use geographic information systems to measure and map a range of potentially competing representative values impacted by establishing energy extraction infrastructure and then spatially identify which leased tracts are the least contentious sites for oil and gas production in Texas state waters. Visual and statistical results indicate that oil and gas lease blocks within the study area vary in their potential to generate conflict among multiple stakeholders.     

Evaluating Ecosystem Management Capabilities at the Local Level in Florida: Identifying Policy Gaps Using Geographic Information Systems

Because ecosystem approaches to management adhere to ecological systems rather than human-defined boundaries, collaboration across jurisdiction, agencies, and land ownership is often necessary to achieve effective management of transboundary resources. Local natural resource and land use planners increasingly recognize that while ecosystem management requires looking beyond specific jurisdictions and focusing on broad spatial scales, the approach will partly be implemented at the local level with the coordination of local policies across larger landscapes. This article evaluates the collective capabilities of local jurisdictions to manage large transboundary ecological systems in Florida. Specifically, it combines plan evaluation with geographic information systems (GIS) techniques to map, measure, and analyze the existing mosaic of management across selected ecosystems in the southern portion of the State. Visual and statistical results indicate significant gaps in the management framework of southern Florida that, if filled, could achieve a greater level of consistency and more complete coverage of ecosystem management policies. Based on the spatial distribution of 58 ecosystem management indicators, notable gaps persist in the southwest coast, southeast coast, and central Everglades ecosystems, particularly for wildlife corridors and collaboration with neighboring jurisdictions. We also test for spatial autocorrelation of ecosystem planning scores and find that local jurisdictions with strong ecosystem management capabilities tend to cluster within specific ecosystems. Based on the findings, we make recommendations on how and where local plans can be strengthened to more effectively attain the objectives of ecosystem approaches to management.     

Rapid Assessment of Soil Erosion in the Rio Lempa Basin, Central America, Using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and Geographic Information Systems

Soil erosion is a severe problem for many developing regions that lack adequate infrastructure to combat the problem. The authors established a first-order method for prioritizing areas to be examined and remediated using preexisting data and expert knowledge where data are lacking. The Universal Soil Loss Equation was applied to the Rio Lempa Basin in Central America using geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies, and the estimated erosion rates were compared with sediment delivery ratios. Spatial analysis indicates that agriculture on very steep slopes contributes only a small fraction to the total estimated soil erosion, whereas agriculture on gentle and moderately steep slopes contributes a large fraction of the erosion. Although much of the basin is in El Salvador, the greatest estimated amount of erosion is from Honduras. Data quality and availability were impaired by a lack of coordination among agencies and across countries. Several avenues for improving the authors’ methods are described.     

Using Ecological Risk Assessment to Identify the Major Anthropogenic Stressor in the Waquoit Bay Watershed,Cape Cod,Massachusetts

The Waquoit Bay Watershed ecological risk assessment was performed by an interdisciplinary and interagency workgroup. This paper focuses on the steps taken to formulate the analysis plan for this watershed assessment. The workgroup initially conducted a series of meetings with the general public and local and state managers to determine environmental management objectives for the watershed. The workgroup then decided that more information was needed on the impacts of six stressors: nutrient enrichment, physical alteration of habitat, altered freshwater flow, toxic chemicals, pathogens, and fisheries harvesting. Assessment endpoints were selected to establish the link between environmental management objectives, impacts of stressors, and scientifically measurable endpoints. The following assessment endpoints were selected: estuarine eelgrass cover, scallop abundance, finfish diversity and abundance, wetland bird distribution and abundance, piping plover distribution and abundance, tissue contaminant levels, and brook trout distribution and abundance in streams. A conceptual model was developed to show the pathways between human activities, stressors, and ecological effects. The workgroup analyzed comparative risks, by first ranking stressors in terms of their potential risk to biotic resources in the watershed. Then stressors were evaluated by considering the components of stressors (e.g., the stressor chemical pollution included both heavy metals and chlorinated solvents components) in terms of intensity and extensiveness. The workgroup identified nutrient enrichment as the major stressor. Nutrient enrichment comprised both phosphorus enrichment in freshwater ponds and nitrogen enrichment within estuaries. Because phosphorus impacts were being analyzed and mitigated by the Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence, this assessment focused on nitrogen. The process followed to identify the predominant stressor and focus the analyses on nitrogen impacts on eelgrass and scallops will serve as an example of how to increase the use of the findings of a watershed assessment in decision making.     

Urbanization and Its Effect On Runoff in the Whiteoak Bayou Watershed,Texas1

Abstract: The capacity of a watershed to urbanize without changing its hydrologic response and the relationship between that response and the spatial configuration of the developed areas was studied. The study was conducted in the Whiteoak Bayou watershed (223 km²), located northwest of Houston, Texas, over an analysis period from 1949 to 2000. Annual development data were derived from parcel data collected by the Harris County Appraisal District. Using these data, measures of the spatial configuration of the watershed urban areas were calculated for each year. Based on regression models, it was determined that the annual runoff depths and annual peak flows depended on the annual precipitation depth, the developed area and the maximum 12‐h precipitation depth on the day and day before the peak flow took place. It was found that, since the early 1970s, when the watershed reached a 10% impervious area, annual runoff depths and peak flows have increased by 146% and 159%, respectively. However, urbanization is responsible for only 77% and 32% of the increase, respectively, while precipitation changes are responsible for the remaining 39% and 96%, respectively. Likewise, an analysis of the development data showed that, starting in the early 1970s, urbanization in the watershed consisted more of connecting already developed areas than of creating new ones, which increases the watershed’s conveyance capacity and explains the change in its response. Before generalizing conclusions, though, further research on other urban watersheds with different urbanization models appears to be necessary.     

Collaborative Modeling to Evaluate Water Management Scenarios in the Rio Grande Basin

This article describes the collaborative modeling process and the resulting water resources planning model developed to evaluate water management scenarios in the transboundary Rio Grande basin. The Rio Grande is a severely water stressed basin that faces numerous management challenges as it crosses numerous jurisdictional boundaries. A collaborative process was undertaken to identify and model water management scenarios to improve water supply for stakeholders, the environment, and international obligations of water delivery from Mexico to the United States. A transparent and open process of data collection, model building, and scenario development was completed by a project steering committee composed of university, nongovernmental, and governmental experts from both countries. The outcome of the process was a planning model described in this article, with data and operations that were agreed on by water planning officials in each country. Water management scenarios were created from stakeholder input and were modeled and evaluated for effectiveness with the planning model.     

Privileged Knowledge and Social Change: Effects on Different Participants of Using Geographic Information Systems Technology in Natural Resource Management

The use of geographic information systems (GIS) technology in natural resource management has expanded rapidly: It is the preferred tool of spatial data analysis addressing large landscapes and is typically the presentation medium for conveying landscape-scale scientific findings to all kinds of audiences. In a case study using the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study in western Oregon, it was found that the use of GIS to analyze and display natural resource data in that project produced a variety of responses among different participants and participant groups. The findings offer insights into the workings of groups attempting public involvement in natural resource management.     

Environmental information sharing: a means to support the legitimization of oyster farmers’ stewardship over water quality management in NSW,Australia

Oyster farmers depend on good water quality. Activities upstream from estuaries result in externalities that impact water quality. Over the last 10 years, oyster farmers have been developing estuary‐wide environmental management systems ( EMSs ) to tackle internal (i.e. industry‐related) and external (i.e. catchment) issues in N ew S outh W ales, A ustralia. Drawing on interview‐based research and document analyses, this paper shows that the process of creating an EMS for the oyster industry, as well as the creation of the EMS itself, resulted in legitimizing the industry's stewardship over the natural resource it depends on (water). For the oyster industry, this result was due to a change in the scale on which EMSs have been developed: instead of viewing issues at the individual business level, the systems expanded their viewpoint to the entire catchment, and included every oyster business in the estuary, as well as all other activities in the upper catchment. By providing a means of communicating internal efforts and with the support of local government bodies, EMSs provided a mechanism with which influence over upstream actors and activities could be exerted. We demonstrate this by using the ‘social‐ecological systems’ and ‘ ENCORE ’ frameworks, emphasizing the transitions that allowed for this change of scale to take place.     

Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.     

Application of spatial multi-criteria analysis to site selection for a local park: a case study in the Bergamo Province, Italy

This contribution discusses a site selection process for establishing a local park. It was supported by a value-focused approach and spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques. A first set of spatial criteria was used to design a number of potential sites. Next, a new set of spatial and non-spatial criteria was employed, including the social functions and the financial costs, together with the degree of suitability for the park to evaluate the potential sites and to recommend the most acceptable one. The whole process was facilitated by a new software tool that supports spatial multiple criteria evaluation, or SMCE. The application of this tool, combined with a continual feedback by the public administration, has provided an effective methodology to solve complex decisional problem in land-use and urban planning.     

Oil spill vulnerability assessment integrating physical, biological and socio-economical aspects: Application to the Cantabrian coast (Bay of Biscay, Spain)

A methodology has been developed to carry out an integrated oil spill vulnerability index, V, for coastal environments. This index takes into account the main physical, biological and socio-economical characteristics by means of three intermediate indexes. Three different integration methods (worst-case, average and survey-based) along with ESI-based vulnerability scores, V_ESI, proposed for the Cantabrian coast during the Prestige oil spill, have been analyzed and compared in terms of agreement between the classifications obtained with each one for this coastal area. Results of this study indicate that the use of the worst-case index, V_R, leads to a conservative ranking, with a very poor discrimination which is not helpful in coastal oil spill risk management. Due to the homogeneity of this coastal stretch, the rest of the methods, V_I, V_M and V_ESI, provide similar classifications. However, V_M and V_I give more flexibility allowing three indexes for each coastal segment and including socio-economic aspects. Finally, the V_I procedure is proposed here as the more advisable as using this index promotes the public participation that is a key element in the implementation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (IZCM).     

An introduction to digital methods in remote sensing of forested ecosystems: Focus on the Pacific Northwest,USA

Aerial photography has been routinely used for several decades by natural resource scientists and managers to map and monitor the condition of forested landscapes. Recently, along with the emergence of concepts in managing forests as ecosystems, has come a significant shift in emphasis from smaller to larger spatial scales and the widespread use of geographic information systems. These developments have precipitated an increasing need for vegetation information derived from other remote sensing imagery, especially digital data acquired from high-elevation aircraft and satellite platforms. This paper introduces fundamental concepts in digital remote sensing and describes numerous applications of the technology. The intent is to provide a balanced, nontechnical view, discussing the shortcomings, successes, and future potential for digital remote sensing of forested ecosystems.     

Using the multiple capitals framework to connect indicators of regional cumulative impacts of mining and pastoralism in the Murray Darling Basin,Australia

It is commonly recognized that there are constraints to successful regional-scale assessment and monitoring of cumulative impacts because of challenges in the selection of coherent and measurable indicators of the effects. It has also been sensibly declared that the connections between components in a region are as important as the state of the elements themselves. These have previously been termed “linked” cumulative impacts/effects. These connections can be difficult to discern because of a complicated set of interactions and unexpected linkages. In this paper we diagnose that a significant cause of these constraints is the selection of indicators without due regard for their inter-relationships in the formulation of the indicator set. The paper examines whether the common “forms of capital”, i.e., natural (renewable and non-renewable), manufactured, social, human and financial capitals, framework is a potential organizing structure. We examine a large region in western NSW Australia where the predominant production systems are mining and grazing for production of wool, beef and lamb. Production in both is driven by consumption of a non-renewable resource, i.e., ore for mining and topsoil for grazing, the latter on the basis that loss rate estimates far exceed soil formation rates. We propose that the challenge of identifying connections of components within and between capital stores can be approached by explicitly separating stores of capital and the flows of capital between stores and between elements within stores, so-called capital fluxes. We attempt to acquire data from public sources for both capital stores and fluxes. The question of whether these data are a sufficient base for regional assessment, with particular reference to connections, is discussed. The well-described challenge of a comparative common currency for stores and fluxes is also discussed. We conclude that the data acquisition is relatively successful for stores and fluxes. A number of linked impacts are identified and discussed. The potential use of money as the common currency for stores and fluxes of capital is considered. The basic proposition is that replacement or preservation costs be used for this. We conclude that the study is sufficiently positive to consider further research in fully-coupled models of capital stores and fluxes.     

Modeling the impact of revegetation on regional water quality: A collective approach to manage the cumulative impacts of mining in the Bowen Basin,Australia

In this paper we quantify the additional water quality benefits that can be achieved through coordinated cumulative impact management. To do this we simulate coordinated and un-coordinated revegetation investments and compare their impact on achieving regional water quality goals. Our results show that coordination between multiple mining companies achieves additional benefits since prioritization is enabled across a broader range of investment opportunities. Additionally, when coordinated investment is permitted beyond the boundaries of coal mining leases, results show that additional benefits are greatly enhanced since these regions provide more rewarding investment opportunities. Results illustrate (a) how regional coordination may influence reputational benefits of investments, and (b) that coordination is beneficial when investment opportunities are unevenly distributed across the landscape. When additional benefits are achievable, we suggest that mining companies should develop collective investment projects with an understanding of how coordination influences project costs. Similarly, investment projects should be developed with an understanding of investment tradeoffs and how these may adversely impact on regional stakeholders and hence industry reputation. The mining industry has significant potential to contribute to regional wellbeing; however, land management policies must be flexible and promote incentives to enable companies to invest beyond compliance.