An assessment of carbon stock for various land use system in Aravally mountains, Western India

Reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries is of the central importance in efforts to combat climate change. A study was conducted to measure carbon stocks in various land-use systems including forms and reliably estimates the impact of land use on carbon (C) stocks in the forest of Rajasthan, western India (23°3′–30°12′N longitude and 69°30′–78°17′E). 22.8% of India is forested and 0.04% is the deforestation rate of India. In Indian forest sector of western India of Aravally mountain range covered large area of deciduous forest and it’s very helpful in carbon sequestration at global level. The carbon stocks of forest, plantation (reforestation) and agricultural land in aboveground, soil organic and fine root within forest were estimated through field data collection. Results revealed that the amount of total carbon stock of forests (533.64?±?37.54 Mg·ha^?1, simplified expression of Mg (carbon) ·ha^?1) was significantly greater (P?<?0.05) than the plantation (324.37?±?15.0 Mg·ha^?1) and the agricultural land (120.50?±?2.17 Mg·ha^?1). Soil organic carbon in the forests (172.84?±?3.78 Mg·ha^?1) was also significantly greater (P?<?0.05) than the plantation (153.20?±?7.48 Mg·ha^?1) and the agricultural land (108.71?±?1.68 Mg·ha^?1). The differences in carbon stocks across land-use types are the primary consequence of variations in the vegetation biomass and the soil organic matter. Fine root carbon was a small fraction of carbon stocks in all land-use types. Most of the soil organic carbon and fine root carbon content was found in the upper 30-cm layer and decreased with soil depth. The aboveground carbon (ABGC): soil organic carbon (SOC): fine root carbon ratios (FRC), was 8:4:1, 4:5:1, and 3:37:1 for the forest, plantation and agricultural land, respectively. These results indicate that a relatively large proportion of the C loss is due to forest conversion to agricultural land.     

Carbon emissions from land-use change: an analysis of causal factors in Chiapas, Mexico

This study examines the correlation between deforestation, carbon dioxide emissions and potential causal factors of land-use change within an area of 2.7 million ha in Chiapas, southern Mexico between 1975 and 1996. Digitized land-use maps and interpreted satellite images were used to quantify land-use changes. Geo-referenced databases of population and digitized maps of roads and topography were used to determine which factors could be used to explain observed changes in land-use. The study analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions during this period and two types of possible causal factors: “predisposing” factors that determine the susceptibility of a particular area of forest to change (slope, distance to agriculture and roads, land tenure) and “driving” factors representing the pressures for change (population density, poverty). The correlated factors were combined in risk matrices, which show the proportion of vulnerable carbon stocks lost in areas with defined social, economic and environmental characteristics. Such matrices could be used to predict future deforestation rates and provide a verifiable evidence-base for defining baseline carbon emissions for forest conservation projects. Based on the results of the analysis, two matrices were constructed, using population density as the single most important driving factor and distance from roads and distance from agriculture as the two alternatives for the predisposing factors of deforestation.     

黄土丘陵区土地利用变化对深层土壤有机碳储量的影响

通过研究黄土丘陵子午岭林区5种典型土地利用类型土壤剖面有机碳分布特征,分析了天然乔木林转变为人工乔木林、天然乔木林转变为农田、天然灌木林转变为农田及撂荒后土壤有机碳变化特征.同时,以浅层(0~100 cm)土壤为对照,探讨了土地利用变化对深层(100~200cm)土壤有机碳储量的影响.结果表明,在0~200 cm剖面上,天然乔木林、天然灌木林、人工乔木林、撂荒地、农田土壤有机碳含量分别为5.85、3.96、4.98、3.09、3.20 g·kg-1,天然乔木林、人工乔木林土壤有机碳含量显著高于天然灌木林、撂荒地和农田(p0.05).各土地利用类型下浅层和深层土壤有机碳含量分别占0~200 cm土壤有机碳含量的58%~73%和27%~42%,不同土地利用类型间浅层土壤有机碳含量差异显著,但深层土壤有机碳含量差异不大.土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量影响显著.天然乔木林转变为人工乔木林、天然乔木林转变为农田、天然灌木林转变为撂荒地、天然灌木林转变为农田4种土地利用转变方式0~200 cm土壤有机碳储量分别减少了9.68、52.90、20.20、12.49 t·hm-2,减幅为7%、39%、21%、13%,其中,浅层土壤减少了2%~48%,深层土壤减少了12%~22%.相对于林地开垦为农田而言,农田退耕还林后土壤有机碳的恢复要慢得多.研究结果揭示了浅层和深层土壤有机碳对土地利用变化的敏感性,反映了深层土壤有机碳具有较大的稳定性.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

1975—2005年中亚土地利用/覆被变化对森林生态系统碳储量的影响

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对碳循环的影响研究已覆盖全球绝大多数地区,但中亚LUCC对森林生态系统碳库的影响仍属未知。论文以人工林面积、森林产品收获产量及林地转移面积为基础数据,应用Bookkeeping模型,分析了1975—2005年期间三种LUCC方式对中亚森林碳库的影响。近30 a LUCC对其碳库的影响总体表现为碳汇,固碳量为3.07 Tg。植树造林表现出强烈的碳汇功能,总固碳量为12.97 Tg。森林采伐是最主要的碳释放来源,共释放碳5.80 Tg。林地转移呈现较强的碳释放特征,共排放为4.10 Tg。结果表明1975—2005年该区域LUCC对森林碳库具有明显的增汇效应。研究结果将有利于减少LUCC对全球碳收支影响的不确定性。     

Agricultural landscape change and stability in northeast Thailand: historical patch-level analysis

The temporal nature of agricultural landscape change, where both intra- and inter-annual processes and changes are often at work, renders traditional methods of landscape change assessment not completely effective. Additionally, seasonal and longer-term shifting patterns of cultivation can sometimes appear as permanent landscape change when in fact they actually are simply a local change in spatial arrangement. To address these complexities, this work tests an approach that is longitudinal in character and based upon assessing the structure of landscape change as well as the landuse/landcover (LULC) change. Set in rural northeast Thailand, patch dynamics are examined through use of LULC change trajectories built from an image time series and temporal patterns built from pattern metrics. The given unit of observation is the pixel, and its “life history” is constituted by the values derived from the images of a satellite time series, which are then reconstituted at the patch level for better ecological interpretation. The hypothesis that underpins this approach is that the nature of the trajectory is associated with the function of the land in that patch and in the neighborhood of surrounding patches. Hence, different trajectories of LULC spatial arrangement may suggest, for example, differences in the stability or dynamics of LULC over time and space, which are further suggestive of land sustainability or resilience, or conversely land conversion or dynamism. The study area for this research is a marginalized, agrarian environment in northeast Thailand, a region that has undergone deforestation of upland forests for the cultivation of commercial field crops, intensification of lowland rice for subsistence as well as local and regional sales and global export, and LULC scenarios altering the savanna landscape that serves as the background matrix. The analysis here characterizes the relative stability and temporal dynamics of LULC at the patch level. Pattern metrics calculated at the patch level are assessed as the spatial organization of landscape units that represent: (1) transitional areas of LULC dynamics occurring as peripheral expansion, (2) LULC change from forest to agriculture through deforestation, or (3) agriculture to forest through secondary plant succession, with savanna serving as a transitional matrix. In short, this paper proposes and tests a method for assessing the temporal persistence of LULC through pattern metrics. The method contributes a technique for analyzing the landscape ecology of sites as a function of their stability/dynamics within a scale-explicit context, and contributes to the growing body of work on relating scale, pattern, and process.     

Forest land use change in the philippines and climate change mitigation

Tropical forests in countries like thePhilippines are important sources and sinks of carbon(C). The paper analyzes the contribution of Philippineforests in climate change mitigation. Since the 1500s,deforestation of 20.9 M ha (10⁶ ha) of Philippineforests contributed 3.7 Pg (10¹⁵ g) of C to theatmosphere of which 2.6 Pg were released this century. At present, forest land uses store 1091 Tg(10¹² g) of C and sequester 30.5 Tg C/yr whilereleasing 11.4 Tg C/yr through deforestation andharvesting. In the year 2015, it is expected that thetotal C storage will decline by 8% (1005 Tg) andtotal rate of C sequestration will increase by 17%(35.5 Tg/yr). This trend is due to the decline innatural forest area accompanied by an increase intree plantation area. We have shown that uncertaintyin national C estimates still exists because they arereadily affected by the source of biomass and Cdensity data. Philippine forests can act as C sink by:conserving existing C sinks, expanding C stocks, andsubstituting wood products for fossil fuels. Here weanalyze the possible implications of the provisions ofthe Kyoto Protocol to Philippine forests. Finally, wepresent current research and development efforts ontropical forests and climate change in the Philippinesto improve assessments of their role in the nations Cbudgets.     

Benefits of tropical forest management under the new climate change agreement—a case study in Cambodia

Promoting sustainable forest management as part of the reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries (REDD)-plus mechanism in the Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 implies that tropical forests will no longer be ignored in the new climate change agreement. As new financial incentives are pledged, costs and revenues on a 1-ha tract of tropical forestland being managed or cleared for other land use options need to be assessed so that appropriate compensation measures can be proposed. Cambodia's highly stocked evergreen forest, which has experienced rapid degradation and deforestation, will be the first priority forest to be managed if financial incentives through a carbon payment scheme are available. By analyzing forest inventory data, we assessed the revenues and costs for managing a hypothetical 1 ha of forestland against six land use options: business-as-usual timber harvesting (BAU-timber), forest management under the REDD-plus mechanism, forest-to-teak plantation, forest-to-acacia plantation, forest-to-rubber plantation, and forest-to-oil palm plantation. We determined annual equivalent values for each option, and the BAU-timber and REDD-plus management options were the highest, with both options influenced by logging costs and timber price. Financial incentives should be provided at a level that would allow continuation of sustainable logging and be attractive to REDD-plus project developers.     

Drivers of deforestation and REDD+ benefit-sharing: A meta-analysis of the (missing) link

REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and related forest activities) is a climate change mitigation mechanism currently being negotiated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It calls for developed countries to financially support developing countries for their actions to reduce forest-sector carbon emissions. In this paper, we undertake a meta-analysis of the links, if any, between multiple and diverse drivers of deforestation operating at different levels and the benefits accruing from and being shared through REDD+ projects. We do so by assessing the nature of this link in (a) scholarly analysis, through an in-depth analysis of the posited relationship between drivers and REDD+ benefit-sharing, as examined in the peer-reviewed literature; and (b) in policy practice, through analysing how this link is being conceptualised and operationalised, if at all, in REDD+ project design documents. Our meta-analysis suggests that while some local, direct drivers and a few regional indirect drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are being targeted by specific REDD+ interventions and associated benefit-sharing mechanisms at the project-level, most national and international indirect drivers are not. We conclude that the growing academic analyses of REDD+ projects do not (as yet) advance viable theories of change, i.e. there is currently little focus on how REDD+ benefits could play a transformative role in catalysing action on drivers.     

土地利用变化对西南喀斯特土壤团聚体组成、稳定性以及C、N、P化学计量特征的影响

土壤团聚体稳定性和养分化学计量特征对土地利用变化的响应研究,以及对当前脆弱生态环境保护与修复具有重要意义.为探明西南喀斯特山地土地利用方式变化对土壤团聚体组成、稳定性与C、 N、 P养分化学计量特征的影响规律,选取了西南喀斯特典型区域为研究区,针对7种主要土地利用方式建立了系列样地,开展了土壤团聚体组成与稳定性、团聚体C、 N、 P含量与计量比特征研究.结果表明,土地利用变化显著影响了土壤团聚体稳定性.玉米地和撂荒地的土壤团聚体稳定性相对较高,草地和裸地的团聚体稳定性相对较低,土壤团聚体稳定性总体随土层增加呈现降低趋势.不同土地利用方式土壤团聚体C、 N和P含量存在显著差异.疏林地和撂荒地土壤团聚体C和N含量较高,草地土壤团聚体C和N含量较低,裸地和撂荒地土壤团聚体P含量相对较高.土地利用变化对土壤团聚体C、 N和P计量比也存在明显影响.乔木林地、疏林地和撂荒地土壤团聚体C∶N相对较高,草地土壤团聚体C∶N最低;乔木林地和疏林地土壤团聚体C∶P较高,明显高于其他土地利用方式;乔木林地、疏林地和灌木林地土壤团聚体N∶P较高,明显高于裸地和撂荒地.喀斯特土壤团聚体组成和稳定性与土壤C、 N...     

天山北坡城市群碳储量时空变化及预测研究

为了有效评估城市群碳储量变化,以天山北坡城市群为研究对象,运用PLUS模型和InVEST模型,动态评估2000～2020年及2030年不同情景下土地利用变化及碳储量变化特征.结果表明,2000～2020年天山北坡城市群碳储量呈现持续增加趋势,且碳储量变化与土地利用变化密切相关,主要表现为2000～2010年林地面积的减少导致其碳储量减少约266×106t,2010～2020年草地面积的增加使其碳储量增加约69.14×10⁶t.2030年自然发展情景、生态保护情景和经济快速发展情景下碳储量预测值分别为8875.88×10⁶t、8895.58×10⁶t和8841.58×10⁶t;经济快速发展情景下碳储量最低,生态保护情景下碳储量最高.土地利用是影响碳储量空间变化分布的第一主导因素,贡献率接近于90%,土地利用强度与碳储量协调性分析与两者双变量空间自相关分析进一步验证了这一结论.土地利用变化在一定程度上能够对碳储量产生积极影响,对于本研究区而言,生态保护发展情景可能更符合未来城市发展模式,研究结果能够为土...     

2000-2009年芜湖市LUCC对植被碳储量的影响

LUCC是影响陆地植被碳循环的重要因子之一。采用2000、2005和2009年3期遥感影像解译及运用GIS技术提取芜湖市2000-2009年的土地利用变化数据,根据前人对植被NPP的研究成果,计算芜湖市土地利用变化对生态系统中植被碳储量的影响。结果表明:在2000-2005年,耕地大量转化为林地、草地大量转化为耕地等使其植被碳储量净增加了4.43×103～22.14×103t;2005年-2009年,林地大量的转移为耕地、建筑用地,耕地转为水域、建设用地等使其植被碳储量净减少了72.34×103～289.38×103t。研究结果显示,芜湖市植被碳储量总体呈减少趋势,且林地是影响芜湖市植被碳储量的主要因素。     

Impacts of Mauritia flexuosa degradation on the carbon stocks of freshwater peatlands in the Pastaza-Marañón river basin of the Peruvian Amazon

Tropical peat swamp forests (PSF) are characterized by high quantities of carbon (C) stored as organic soil deposits due to waterlogged conditions which slows down decomposition. Globally, Peru has one of the largest expanse of tropical peatlands, located primarily within the Pastaza-Marañón river basin in the Northwestern Peru. Peatland forests in Peru are dominated by a palm species—Mauritia flexuosa, and M. flexuosa-dominated forests cover ~?80% of total peatland area and store ~?2.3 Pg C. However, hydrologic alterations, land cover change, and anthropogenic disturbances could lead to PSF’s degradation and loss of valuable ecosystem services. Therefore, evaluation of degradation impacts on PSF’s structure, biomass, and overall C stocks could provide an estimate of potential C losses into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This study was carried out in three regions within Pastaza-Marañón river basin to quantify PSF’s floristic composition and degradation status and total ecosystem C stocks. There was a tremendous range in C stocks (Mg C ha^?1) in various ecosystem pools—vegetation (45.6–122.5), down woody debris (2.1–23.1), litter (2.3–7.8), and soil (top 1 m; 109–594). Mean ecosystem C stocks accounting for the top 1 m soil were 400, 570, and 330 Mg C ha^?1 in Itaya, Tigre, and Samiria river basins, respectively. Considering the entire soil depth, mean ecosystem C stocks were 670, 1160, and 330 Mg C ha^?1 in Itaya, Tigre, and Samiria river basins, respectively. Floristic composition and calcium to Magnesium (Ca/Mg) ratio of soil profile offered evidence of a site undergoing vegetational succession and transitioning from minerotrophic to ombrotrophic system. Degradation ranged from low to high levels of disturbance with no significant difference between regions. Increased degradation tended to decrease vegetation and forest floor C stocks and was significantly correlated to reduced M. flexuosa biomass C stocks. Long-term studies are needed to understand the linkages between M. flexuosa harvest and palm swamp forest C stocks; however, river dynamics are important natural drivers influencing forest succession and transition in this landscape.

     

成渝经济区陆地植被碳储量动态及碳汇战略研究

利用卫星遥感数据,对2000年-2007年间成渝经济区耕地、森林和草地等陆地植被的碳储量进行了估算.结果表明:(1)7年间耕地和草地分别减少了2 388.89 km2和1 231.05 km2,林地增加了2 908.70 km2,其中耕地主要转出为林地和建设用地,草地转出主要为林地和耕地;(2)7年间成渝经济区碳储量呈逐渐增加的趋势,共增加了625.16万tC/a,年增长率为0.21%.其中耕地、草地碳储量分别减少了165.79万tC/a和933.87万tC/a,林地碳储量增加了1 724.81万tC/a.(3)结合碳储量变化的趋势,提出了以打造低碳城市为目标的成渝经济区碳汇战略.     

Forests in climate policy: technical,institutional and economic issues in measurement and monitoring

Despite the economic and environmental significance of the world’s forests, we have limited data about them. Estimates of deforestation in tropical countries and rates of reforestation or afforestation in boreal and temperate countries are inconsistent. Accordingly, estimates of emissions released in deforestation vary widely and range from 7% to 17% of all sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The lack of good data severely hampers efforts to shape climate policy because it is difficult to model the role of forests both in the physical global carbon (C) cycle and in cost-effective regimes to abate GHG. Data limits strain the capacity of even the best models to estimate marginal cost functions for forest carbon (C) sequestration. It is technically possible to obtain better information, but for institutional and economic reasons these technologies have not yet been fully deployed. The emergence of carbon (C) trading or tax policy in which forest carbon (C) storage becomes valued would strengthen incentives to supply better data, as would nonmarket regulation if it elicited a shadow value of forest carbon (C) in substituting for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. “Geo-wiki” may provide a short-term solution to at least part of the data problem. The ultimate solution is the development of a comprehensive forest monitoring system involving remote sensing and on-the-ground truthing. This paper briefly discusses the role of forests in climate policy and then describes data gaps, the capability of technology to fill them, the limits of institutions and budgets in realizing this capability, and possible near-term solutions.     

陕北黄土丘陵区不同土地利用方式下土壤碳剖面分布特征

黄土高原土层深厚,土壤剖面碳存储受土地利用方式影响明显.为探讨不同土地利用方式对深层土壤碳分布的影响,研究了人工经济林地(陕北米脂)、退耕还林地(神木)和防风固沙林地(榆林榆阳区)0~20.0 m土壤有机碳(SOC)和无机碳(SIC)的分布特征和差异.结果表明,在不同土地利用方式下SOC含量:矮化枣树(2.00 g·kg~(-1))未矮化枣树(1.54 g·kg~(-1))柠条林(0.97 g·kg~(-1))退化人工草地(0.81 g·kg~(-1))樟子松林(0.70 g·kg~(-1))荒草地(0.45 g·kg~(-1)),且各剖面之间SOC含量存在显著性差异(P0.05).在不同土地利用方式下SIC含量:矮化枣树(11.66 g·kg~(-1))≥未矮化枣树(11.59g·kg~(-1))柠条林(9.62 g·kg~(-1))退化人工草地(8.07 g·kg~(-1))樟子松林(4.32 g·kg~(-1))荒草地(0.47 g·kg~(-1));人工经济林和退耕还林(草)样地内所有土壤剖面之间SIC含量无显著性差异;人工经济林、退耕还林(草)剖面和防风固沙林地剖面SIC含量存在显著性差异(P0.05).矮化枣树、未矮化枣树、柠条林、退化人工草地、樟子松林和荒草地土壤剖面无机碳密度分别是有机碳密度的6.19、7.71、10.80、10.78、5.91和1.03倍.综上可见,不同土地利用方式之间土壤碳储量存在明显差异,无机碳的含量远高于有机碳.     

近50a玛纳斯河流域土地利用/覆被变化对碳储量的影响

土地利用变化对碳收支的影响是当前全球变化研究领域的重点内容之一,中国西北干旱区土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳收支的影响尚不清楚。论文以西北干旱区流域绿洲水土开发的典范--玛纳斯河流域为研究区,基于Bookkeeping模型,利用多期土地覆被类型图、植被和土壤碳密度历史文献及实地调查资料,开展玛纳斯河流域近50 a荒漠转变为绿洲农田和农田弃耕两种主要土地覆被变化对碳收支的影响研究。玛纳斯河流域的垦殖活动有利于碳储量的增加,在1962-2008年的46 a间,土地利用变化导致流域植被碳储量增加6.34×10⁵ t,土壤碳储量增加3.14×10⁶ t,总碳储量增加3.77×10⁶ t。受土地覆被变化面积和转换类型碳密度差异的影响,不同土地覆被类型转换对碳储量的影响存在显著差异:荒漠草地、裸地开垦为耕地均引起植被和土壤碳储量显著增加;林地开垦为耕地引起植被碳储量减少,土壤碳储量增加,总碳储量减少;而耕地弃耕通常会导致流域碳储量减少。     

Sensitivity of amounts and distribution of tropical forest carbon credits depending on baseline rules

One of the largest sources of global greenhouse gas emissions can be addressed through conservation of tropical forests by channeling funds to developing countries at a cost-savings for developed countries. However, questions remain to be resolved in negotiating a system for including reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in a post-Kyoto climate treaty. The approach to determine national baselines, or reference levels, for quantifying REDD has emerged as central to negotiations over a REDD mechanism in a post-Kyoto policy framework. The baseline approach is critical to the success of a REDD mechanism because it affects the quantity, credibility, and equity of credits generated from efforts to reduce forest carbon emissions. We compared outcomes of seven proposed baseline approaches as a function of country circumstances, using a retrospective analysis of FAO-FRA data on forest carbon emissions from deforestation. Depending upon the baseline approach used, the total credited emissions avoided ranged over two orders of magnitude for the same quantity of actual emissions reductions. There was also a wide range in the relative distribution of credits generated among the five country types we identified. Outcomes were especially variable for countries with high remaining forest and low rates of deforestation (HFLD). We suggest that the most credible approaches measure emissions avoided with respect to a business-as-usual baseline scenario linked to historic emissions data, and allow limited adjustments based on forest carbon stocks.     

岩溶区与非岩溶区土壤微生物活性的对比研究

通过野外采样和室内实验,研究了不同地质背景、不同土地利用方式对土壤微生物活性的影响。研究表明,土壤微生物数量、微生物量碳在林地、灌木丛、草丛三种不同的土地利用方式下均表现为岩溶区>非岩溶区;岩溶区土壤微生物数量、微生物量碳表现为林地>灌木丛>草丛;非岩溶区土壤微生物数量表现为草丛>林地>灌木丛,微生物碳表现为林地>草丛>灌木丛。对于同一种土地利用方式,脲酶和蔗糖酶活性均表现为非岩溶区>岩溶区,过氧化氢酶活性表现为岩溶区>非岩溶区;除非岩溶区土壤脲酶活性表现为林地>草丛>灌木丛外,非岩溶区土壤过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶活性及岩溶区土壤脲酶、过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶活性均表现为林地>灌木丛>草丛。岩溶区土壤脲酶、过氧化氢酶、蔗糖酶活性和非岩溶区土壤蔗糖酶活性能作为土壤较理想的肥力指标。     

面向碳中和的中国低碳国土开发利用

基于IPAT和IBIS模型在预测人为碳排放和陆地生态系统碳汇的基础上,探讨了中国2060年实现碳中和的可行性以及不同土地利用方式承载的碳汇分布。2060年我国人为碳排放预计为0.86 Pg C yr ^-1;IPCC报告中RCP 2.6和RCP 6.0情景的陆地生态系统分别中和33%和38%的人为碳排放。2060年林地、草地、耕地是陆地生态系统碳汇主要贡献者,占93%;与2030年比,在RCP 2.6情景下林地和草地的碳汇贡献分别下降10%和8%,而耕地上升18%;RCP 6.0情景下林地和草地的贡献分别下降7%和2%,而耕地上升4%。但若按2051—2060年间两种情景下的最高年份（2055年）的碳汇计,则分别可以中和65%、82%的人为碳排放。据此,提出为实现2060年碳中和,应以碳承载力为基础,聚焦区域国土空间规划和建设用地开发规模,对土地利用转变进行严格管控,探索制订土地利用碳排放标准。