Effective communication about complex environmental issues: Perceived quality of information about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) depends on stakeholder collaboration

This experimental research addresses the effectiveness of communication about complex environmental issues, depending on whether the same information is provided by multiple collaborating or by individual organizations (i.e., stakeholders). The information provided pertains to carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology, as an example of a complex environmental issue. In Studies 1 (N = 75) and 2 (N = 66) we found that participants perceived factual information from collaborating stakeholders to be of higher quality than when the same information was provided by individual stakeholders. As predicted, the expectation of diverse perspectives being represented in the collaborative information mediated this effect. In addition, in Study 3 (N = 79) the perceived dissimilarity of collaborating stakeholders was shown to be an important precondition for the collaboration effect observed in Studies 1 and 2. Finally, these studies indicate that occasional collaboration between different stakeholders does not necessarily harm the perceived credibility of each individual stakeholder.     

Lay concepts on CCS deployment in Switzerland based on qualitative interviews

Laypeople's acceptance and perception of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) can have an influence on its political feasibility. It is important, therefore, to study how laypeople perceive CCS and which cognitions they hold with respect to this technique. We conducted in-depth interviews with laypeople (N = 16) to explore their mental concepts of CCS. Little knowledge about CCS was detected among laypeople. We also found that laypeople fear that a deployment of CCS could create incentives that would hinder a sustainable development of the energy economy. A misunderstanding of the concepts of hydro- and geostatic pressure, as well as a lack of knowledge about the physical–chemical properties of carbon dioxide seemed to trigger fundamental rejection of CCS among some laypeople. This qualitative study identifies concepts that underlie CCS perception, and these should be objects of future studies. We provide some suggestions for risk management and communication about CCS.     

Communicating climate science: The role of perceived communicator’s motives

In two experimental studies, we investigated the effects of public perceptions of climate scientists’ communicative motives on trust in scientists and willingness to engage with climate science messages. Study 1 demonstrated that members of the public who were led to believe that scientists aim to inform about the consequences of climate change (rather than to persuade to take a particular course of action) reported higher trust in scientists and stronger willingness to engage in environmental behaviour. Study 2 revealed that this effect was moderated by the style of the scientific message that participants were exposed to. Participants who expected scientists to engage in persuasion were more receptive to persuasive rather than informative messages, while the opposite was true for participants who believed that scientists’ purpose was purely to inform. In both studies the effects of perceived motives on willingness to act in line with the climate change messages were mediated through trust in scientists. The data demonstrate that managing public expectations about the purposes of science communication and delivering messages that are consistent with these expectations are a key to successful communication of climate science.     

The value of post-combustion carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies in a world with uncertain greenhouse gas emissions constraints

By analyzing how the largest CO₂ emitting electricity-generating region in the United States, the East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement (ECAR), responds to hypothetical constraints on greenhouse gas emissions, the authors demonstrate that there is an enduring role for post-combustion CO₂ capture technologies. The utilization of pulverized coal generation with carbon dioxide capture and storage (PC + CCS) technologies is particularly significant in a world where there is uncertainty about the future evolution of climate policy and in particular uncertainty about the rate at which the climate policy will become more stringent. The paper's analysis shows that within this one large, heavily coal-dominated electricity-generating region, as much as 20–40 GW of PC + CCS could be operating before the middle of this century. Depending upon the state of PC + CCS technology development and the evolution of future climate policy, the analysis shows that these CCS systems could be mated to either pre-existing PC units or PC units that are currently under construction, announced and planned units, as well as PC units that could continue to be built for a number of decades even in the face of a climate policy. In nearly all the cases analyzed here, these PC + CCS generation units are in addition to a much larger deployment of CCS-enabled coal-fueled integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants. The analysis presented here shows that the combined deployment of PC + CCS and IGCC + CCS units within this one region of the U.S. could result in the potential capture and storage of between 3.2 and 4.9 Gt of CO₂ before the middle of this century in the region's deep geologic storage formations.     

Informed and uninformed public opinions on CO2 capture and storage technologies in the Netherlands

Two research methods were used in this study to analyze the awareness and perception of the Dutch general public regarding Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS). In an Information-Choice Questionnaire (ICQ), a representative sample of the Dutch public (n = 995) was provided with all information on attributes of six CCS options, which experts deemed necessary to come to well-considered and well-informed opinions. A traditional questionnaire was used simultaneously (n = 327) to study uninformed evaluations of these technologies. The results showed that the Dutch public is mostly unaware of CCS and has little knowledge about how current energy use causes global warming. Uninformed respondents are still inclined to give their opinion however, which results in unpredictive, easily changeable opinions. ICQ respondents who processed information on attributes of CCS options were likely to base their option evaluations on this information, though not entirely. All in all, the results of the ICQ suggest that, after processing information deemed necessary by experts, Dutch people reluctantly agree with large scale implementation of each of the six CCS options.     

To reduce and not to reduce resource consumption? That is two questions

Recent research shows that because they rely on separate goals, cognitions about not performing a behaviour are not simple opposites of cognitions about performing the same behaviour. Using this perspective, two studies (N = 758 & N = 104) examined the psycho-social determinants of reduction in resource consumption. Results showed that goals associated with reducing versus not reducing resource consumption were not simple opposites (Study 1). Additionally, the discriminant validity of the Theory of Planned Behaviour constructs associated with reducing versus not reducing resource consumption was demonstrated (Study 1 & 2). Moreover, results revealed the incremental validity of both Intentions (to reduce and to not reduce resource consumption) for predicting a series of behaviours (Study 1 & 2). Finally, results indicated a mediation role for the importance of ecological dimensions on the effect of both Intentions on a mock TV choice and a mediation role for the importance of non ecological dimensions on the effect of Intention of not reducing on the same TV choice. Discussion is organized around the consequences, at both theoretical and applied levels, of considering separate motivational systems for reducing and not reducing resource consumption.     

Lay perceptions of carbon capture and storage technology

The extent of social acceptance of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is likely to significantly influence the sustainable development of CO₂ storage projects. Acceptance of CCS by the key stakeholders (policy makers, the general public, the media and the local community), linked to specific projects, as well as how the technology is communicated about and perceived by the public, have become matters of interest for the social sciences. This article reports on an investigation of the public perception of CCS technology in Spain. Individuals’ views on CCS are analysed through focus groups with lay citizens using “stimulus materials”. As the analysis shows, lay views of CCS differ significantly from the views of decision-makers and experts. Public concerns and reactions to CCS technology and potential projects, as well as the degree of consensus on its acceptance or rejection are detailed. Implications for the future use of CCS are discussed.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.     

Need for a wind of change? Use of offshore wind messages by stakeholders and the media in Germany and their effects on public acceptance

This study investigates German news media coverage and PR material of offshore wind stakeholders from industry, politics, science and civil society thoroughly to provide insights about offshore wind benefits and risks communicated frequently and rarely to the public. By comparative analyses, differences between stakeholder and media messages are revealed: while stakeholders strongly focused on the supportive argument relevance of offshore wind for the energy turnaround, the media often discussed the negative impacts higher costs and delays in grid connection. Furthermore, the influence of offshore wind arguments on acceptance is measured within a survey representative of the German population. With these results, it can be assessed how far influential arguments were presented and which messages have been used frequently despite their low impact. Disruptions to viewscapes, limitation of commercial fishing areas, and hazards to shipping proved to be effective arguments to influence offshore wind acceptance – however, they were seldom used.     

PRISM vs. CFSR Precipitation Data Effects on Calibration and Validation of SWAT Models

Precipitation is one of the most important drivers in watershed models. Our objective was to compare two sources of interpolated precipitation data in terms of their effect on calibration and validation of two Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. One model was a suburban watershed in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. The precipitation sources were Parameter‐elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on a 4‐km grid and climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data on a 38‐km grid. The PRISM data resulted in a better fit to the calibration data (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] = 0.64, Kling‐Gupta efficiency [KGE] = 0.74, p‐factor = 0.84, and r‐factor = 0.43) than the CFSR data (NSE = 0.47, KGE = 0.53, p‐factor = 0.67, and r‐factor = 0.39). Validation results were similar. Sensitive parameters were similar in both the PRISM and CFSR models, but fitted values indicated more rapid groundwater flow to the streams with the PRISM data. The same comparison was made in the Big Creek watershed located approximately 1,000 km away, in central Louisiana. Results were similar with a more responsive groundwater system indicating PRISM data may produce better predictions of streamflow because of a more accurate estimate of rainfall within a watershed or because of a denser grid. Our study implies PRISM is providing a better estimate than CFSR of precipitation within a watershed when rain gauge data are not available, resulting in more accurate simulations of streamflows at the watershed outlet. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Regulatory challenges to the implementation of carbon capture and geological storage within the European Union under EU and international law

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is a relatively new technology in the context of climate change mitigation strategies, and its legal and regulatory implications are not yet broadly understood. This paper takes a brief look at international environmental law principles relevant to CCS, identifies key environmental and safety risks associated with the technology, and highlights significant legal frameworks that pose challenges to the implementation of CCS within the EU under EU and international law. It then notes continuing regulatory gaps that will need to be addressed for large-scale CCS to take place. The paper concludes that the clear inclusion or exclusion of CCS activities from the range of relevant legal frameworks will increase transparency, provide regulatory certainty and ultimately facilitate CCS in appropriate contexts.     

Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Stream Temperature II: Threshold Exceedance Duration Projections for Freshwater Mussels

We developed a stochastic hourly stream temperature model (SHSTM) to estimate probability of exceeding given threshold temperature (T) for specified durations (24 and 96 h) to assess potential impacts on freshwater mussels in the upper Tar River, North Carolina. Simulated daily mean stream T from climate change (CC) and land‐use (LU) change simulations for 2021‐2030 and 2051‐2060 were used as input to the SHSTM. Stream T observations in 2010 revealed only two sites with T above 30°C for >24 h and Ts were never >31°C for more than 24 h at any site. The SHSTM suggests that the probability, P, that T will exceed 32°C for at least 96 h in a given year increased from P = 0, in the 20th Century, to P = 0.05 in 2021‐2030 and to P = 0.14 in 2051‐2060. The SHSTM indicated that CC had greater effects on P for 24 and 96 h durations than LU change. Increased P occurred primarily in higher order stream segments in the downstream reaches of the basin. The SHSTM indicated that hourly stream T responded to LU change on the daily scale and did not affect stream T for durations >24 h. The SHSTM indicated that known thermal thresholds for freshwater mussels could be exceeded within the next 50 years in many parts of the upper Tar River basin in North Carolina, which could have negative consequences on the recruitment of freshwater mussels.     

Life cycle assessment of a pulverized coal power plant with post-combustion capture, transport and storage of CO2

In this study the methodology of life cycle assessment has been used to assess the environmental impacts of three pulverized coal fired electricity supply chains with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS) on a cradle to grave basis. The chain with CCS comprises post-combustion CO₂ capture with monoethanolamine, compression, transport by pipeline and storage in a geological reservoir. The two reference chains represent sub-critical and state-of-the-art ultra supercritical pulverized coal fired electricity generation. For the three chains we have constructed a detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) balance, and disclosed environmental trade-offs and co-benefits due to CO₂ capture, transport and storage. Results show that, due to CCS, the GHG emissions per kWh are reduced substantially to 243 g/kWh. This is a reduction of 78 and 71% compared to the sub-critical and state-of-the-art power plant, respectively. The removal of CO₂ is partially offset by increased GHG emissions in up- and downstream processes, to a small extent (0.7 g/kWh) caused by the CCS infrastructure. An environmental co-benefit is expected following from the deeper reduction of hydrogen fluoride and hydrogen chloride emissions. Most notable environmental trade-offs are the increase in human toxicity, ozone layer depletion and fresh water ecotoxicity potential for which the CCS chain is outperformed by both other chains. The state-of-the-art power plant without CCS also shows a better score for the eutrophication, acidification and photochemical oxidation potential despite the deeper reduction of SO_x and NO_x in the CCS power plant. These reductions are offset by increased emissions in the life cycle due to the energy penalty and a factor five increase in NH₃ emissions.     

Determinants of Trust for Public Lands: Fire and Fuels Management on the Bitterroot National Forest

Management of public lands occurs today with high levels of scrutiny and controversy. To succeed, managers seek the support, involvement, and endorsement of the public. This study examines trust as an indicator of managerial success and attempts to identify and measure the components that most influence it. A review of trust literature yielded 14 attributes that were hypothesized to contribute to trust, grouped into the three dimensions of Shared Norms and Values, Willingness to Endorse, and Perceived Efficacy. Operationalizing these attributes and dimensions, a telephone survey was administered to a sample of Montana, USA, residents living adjacent to the Bitterroot National Forest (n = 1,152). Each of the attributes was measured in the context of federal lands fire and fuel management. Structural equation modeling showed that all 14 attributes were found to be influential contributors to levels of trust. Results suggest that if managers are to maintain or increase levels of public trust, they need to consider each of trust’s attributes as they make social, ecological, and economic resource decisions.     

The potential for increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and accelerated consumption of deep geologic CO2 storage resources resulting from the large-scale deployment of a CCS-enabled unconventional fossil fuels industry in the U.S.

Desires to enhance the energy security of the United States have spurred renewed interest in the development of abundant domestic heavy hydrocarbon resources including oil shale and coal to produce unconventional liquid fuels to supplement conventional oil supplies. However, the production processes for these unconventional fossil fuels create large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and this remains one of the key arguments against such development. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce these emissions and preliminary analysis of regional CO₂ storage capacity in locations where such facilities might be sited within the U.S. indicates that there appears to be sufficient storage capacity, primarily in deep saline formations, to accommodate the CO₂ from these industries. Nevertheless, even assuming wide-scale availability of cost-effective CO₂ capture and geologic storage resources, the emergence of a domestic U.S. oil shale or coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry would be responsible for significant increases in CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The authors present modeling results of two future hypothetical climate policy scenarios that indicate that the oil shale production facilities required to produce 3 MMB/d from the Eocene Green River Formation of the western U.S. using an in situ retorting process would result in net emissions to the atmosphere of between 3000 and 7000 MtCO₂, in addition to storing potentially 900–5000 MtCO₂ in regional deep geologic formations via CCS in the period up to 2050. A similarly sized, but geographically more dispersed domestic CTL industry could result in 4000–5000 MtCO₂ emitted to the atmosphere in addition to potentially 21,000–22,000 MtCO₂ stored in regional deep geologic formations over the same period. While this analysis shows that there is likely adequate CO₂ storage capacity in the regions where these technologies are likely to deploy, the reliance by these industries on large-scale CCS could result in an accelerated rate of utilization of the nation's CO₂ storage resource, leaving less high-quality storage capacity for other carbon-producing industries including electric power generation.     

Pathways towards large-scale implementation of CO2 capture and storage: A case study for the Netherlands

We sketch four possible pathways how carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) (r)evolution may occur in the Netherlands, after which the implications in terms of CO₂ stored and avoided, costs and infrastructural requirements are quantified. CCS may play a significant role in decarbonising the Dutch energy and industrial sector, which currently emits nearly 100 Mt CO₂/year. We found that 15 Mt CO₂ could be avoided annually by 2020, provided some of the larger gas fields that become available the coming decade could be used for CO₂ storage. Halfway this century, the mitigation potential of CCS in the power sector, industry and transport fuel production is estimated at maximally 80–110 Mt CO₂/year, of which 60–80 Mt CO₂/year may be avoided at costs between 15 and 40 €/t CO₂, including transport and storage. Avoiding 30–60 Mt CO₂/year by means of CCS is considered realistic given the storage potential represented by Dutch gas fields, although it requires planning to assure that domestic storage capacity could be used for CO₂ storage. In an aggressive climate policy, avoiding another 50 Mt CO₂/year may be possible provided that nearly all capture opportunities that occur are taken. Storing such large amounts of CO₂ would only be possible if the Groningen gas field or large reservoirs in the British or Norwegian part of the North Sea will become available.     

Stakeholder attitudes on Carbon Capture and Storage—An international comparison

This paper presents results from a survey of stakeholder attitudes towards Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The survey is the first to make a global comparison across three major regions: North America, Japan, and Europe. It is based on a 30-question survey which targeted individuals working at stakeholder organizations that seek to shape, and will need to respond to, policy on CCS, including electric utilities, oil and gas companies, CO₂-intensive industries and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). The paper reports results from the original survey carried out in 2006 and from a recent follow up on key CCS questions (April 2009).The results show generally small differences across the regions and between the different groups of stakeholders. All believed that the challenge of significant reductions in emissions using only current technologies was severe. There was a widespread belief that CCS as well as renewable technologies such as solar power will achieve major market entry into the electricity sector within the next 10–20 years, whereas there is more scepticism about the role of hydrogen and especially nuclear fusion in the next 50 years. All groups were generally positive towards renewable energy. Yet, there were some notable areas of disagreement in the responses, for example, as expected, NGOs considered the threat of climate change to be more serious than the other groups. North American respondents were more likely to downplay the threat compared to those of the other regions. The Japanese were more concerned about the burden that would be placed on industry in the coming decade as a result of emissions constraints and NGOs were more likely to believe that the burden imposed would be light or very light. NGO respondents also believed CCS to be far more attractive than nuclear power (fission) but much less than renewables. As expected, the risk for leakage from reservoirs was ranked number one of the risk options given. The follow-up study generally confirmed the results of the original study with a few notable differences. As expected, the results of the follow-up shows that respondents consider CCS to play an increased role in the national climate debate. In Japan, there was an increased fraction of respondents who claimed that their organization has a clear position on CCS.     

Plant and Soil Responses to High and Low Diversity Grassland Restoration Practices

The USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has predominantly used only a few species of dominant prairie grasses (CP2 practice) to reduce soil erosion, but recently has offered a higher diversity planting practice (CP25) to increase grassland habitat quality. We quantified plant community composition in CP25 and CP2 plantings restored for 4 or 8 years and compared belowground properties and processes among restorations and continuously cultivated soils in southeastern Nebraska, USA. Relative to cultivated soils, restoration increased soil microbial biomass (P = 0.033), specifically fungi (P < 0.001), and restored soils exhibited higher rates of carbon (C) mineralization (P = 0.010). High and low diversity plantings had equally diverse plant communities; however, CP25 plantings had greater frequency of cool-season (C₃) grasses (P = 0.007). Older (8 year) high diversity restorations contained lower microbial biomass (P = 0.026), arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) biomass (P = 0.003), and C mineralization rates (P = 0.028) relative to 8 year low diversity restorations; older plantings had greater root biomass than 4 year plantings in all restorations (P = 0.001). Low diversity 8 year plantings contained wider root C:N ratios, and higher soil microbial biomass, microbial community richness, AMF biomass, and C mineralization rate relative to 4 year restorations (P < 0.050). Net N mineralization and nitrification rates were lower in 8 year than 4 year high diversity plantings (P = 0.005). We attributed changes in soil C and N pools and fluxes to increased AMF associated with C₄ grasses in low diversity plantings. Thus, reduced recovery of AMF in high diversity plantings restricted restoration of belowground microbial diversity and microbially-mediated soil processes over time.     

Factors affecting nitrate distribution in shallow groundwater under a beef farm in South Eastern Ireland

Groundwater contamination was characterised using a methodology which combines shallow groundwater geochemistry data from 17 piezometers over a 2 yr period in a statistical framework and hydrogeological techniques. Nitrate–N (NO₃-N) contaminant mass flux was calculated across three control planes (rows of piezometers) in six isolated plots. Results showed natural attenuation occurs on site although the method does not directly differentiate between dilution and denitrification. It was further investigated whether NO₃-N concentration in shallow groundwater (<5 m below ground level) generated from an agricultural point source on a 4.2 ha site on a beef farm in SE Ireland could be predicted from saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_sat) measurements, ground elevation (m Above Ordnance Datum), elevation of groundwater sampling (screen opening interval) (m AOD) and distance from a dirty water point pollution source. Tobit regression, using a background concentration threshold of 2.6 mg NO₃-N L⁻¹ showed, when assessed individually in a step wise procedure, K_sat was significantly related to groundwater NO₃-N concentration. Distance of the point dirty water pollution source becomes significant when included with K_sat in the model. The model relationships show areas with higher K_sat values have less time for denitrification to occur, whereas lower K_sat values allow denitrification to occur. Areas with higher permeability transport greater NO₃-N fluxes to ground and surface waters. When the distribution of Cl⁻ was examined by the model, K_sat and ground elevation had the most explanatory power but K_sat was not significant pointing to dilution having an effect. Areas with low NO₃ concentration and unaffected Cl⁻ concentration points to denitrification, low NO₃ concentration and low Cl⁻ chloride concentration points to dilution and combining these findings allows areas of denitrification and dilution to be inferred. The effect of denitrification is further supported as mean groundwater NO₃-N was significantly (P < 0.05) related to groundwater N₂/Ar ratio, redox potential (Eh), dissolved O₂ and N₂ and was close to being significant with N₂O (P = 0.08). Calculating contaminant mass flux across more than one control plane is a useful tool to monitor natural attenuation. This tool allows the identification of hot spot areas where intervention other than natural attenuation may be needed to protect receptors.