The benefits of the Kyoto Protocol to developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.

Future forest landscapes of the Carpathians: vegetation and carbon dynamics under climate change

Regional Environmental Change - Climate change will alter forest ecosystems and their provisioning of services. Forests in the Carpathian Mountains store high amounts of carbon and provide...     

Paleoecology and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Central Evenkia during the past 2400 years

New data on the composition of surface assemblages of plant macroremains from soil and swamp samples have been obtained in the study of geomorphologically different localities in the middle reaches of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River. The results of paleocarpological analysis of forest soil sections supported by relevant palynological and geochronological data are presented. Natural changes of the forest cover over the past 2400 years and quantitative characteristics of the paleoclimate during each stage are described.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 3–10.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Koshkarova, Koshkarov.     

Land-use legacies in the forest structure of silvopastoral oak woodlands in the Eastern Mediterranean

Eastern Mediterranean silvopastoral oak woodlands have been greatly damaged through forest conversion, illegal lumbering, overgrazing, and forest fires. The aim of this study was to assess land-use changes and the legacies that they have imprinted on the forest structure of Quercus macrolepis and accompanying Quercus pubescens and Quercus cerris woodlands on Lesvos Island, Greece. The size structures of adult oak populations were analyzed as indicators of long-term oak regeneration, while short-term recruitment was determined by counting oak seedlings and saplings. The size structure of the adult Q. macrolepis population was similar to the inverse J-shaped distribution typical for natural Mediterranean oak forests, indicating continuous recruitment with a constant mortality rate of mature individuals. Seedling and sapling densities were highly variable, but generally low in relation to adult oak densities. Recruitment of oak seedlings and saplings was positively related to determinants such as forest cover, adult oak density and basal area, woody plant richness, and litter cover. Both seedling and sapling occurrence were negatively associated with dung frequency, which suggests that sheep grazing imposes a barrier to oak recruitment. The study outlines a comprehensive land-use transition from the 1950 to 1970s, during which a complex and multifunctional agrosilvopastoral land-use system was simplified to an intensive grazing system. The discrepancy between the successful long-term regeneration and the less successful short-term recruitment of oaks illustrates that intensified livestock grazing has been a major driver of vegetation change. Grazing impact is likely to interact with increasing drought conditions, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle that undermines the capacity of woodlands to sustain ecosystem services.     

Peri-urban agro-ecosystems in the Mediterranean: diversity,dynamics, and drivers

Regional Environmental Change - To address sustainability challenges of agro-ecosystems located in Mediterranean urban regions, this paper focuses on the multidisciplinary subject of urban...     

Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the “model of humus balance”

The Model of Humus Balance was used to estimate the influence of climate effects and changing agricultural practices on carbon (C) levels in soddy–podzolic soils in the Russian Federation for the years 2000–2050. The model was linked with a spatial database containing soil, climate and farming management layers for identification of spatial change of C sequestration potential. Analysis of relationships between C, soil texture and climate indicated that compared with a business-as-usual scenario, adaptation measures could increase the number of polygons storing soil organic carbon (SOC) by 2010–2020. The rate of possible C loss is sensitive to the different climate scenarios, with a maximum potential for SOC accumulation expected in 2030–2040, thereafter decreasing to 2050. The effect is most pronounced for the arid part of the study area under the emission scenario with the highest rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, supporting findings from the dynamic SOC model, RothC. C sequestration during the study period was permanent for clay and clay loam soils with a C content of more than 2%, suggesting that C sequestration should be focused on highly fertile, fine-textured soils. We also show that spatial heterogeneity of soil texture can be a source of uncertainty for estimates of SOC dynamics at the regional scale. Figures in color are available at     

CDM Projects under the Kyoto Protocol: A Methodology for Sustainability Assessment – Experiences from South Africa and Uruguay

Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries may finance greenhouse gases mitigation projects in developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol explicitly requires that the CDM shall assist developing countries to achieve sustainable development. However, a clear definition of sustainability for CDM projects is still debatable. MATA-CDM (Multi-Attributive Assessment of CDM Projects) is an approach that facilitates a quantitative assessment of potential projects regarding their contribution to sustainable development. This paper presents applications of MATA-CDM in two different countries. In South Africa, the application was done mainly for academic and demonstrative purposes, whereas in Uruguay it was implemented together with the responsible Designated National Authority (DNA). The work in both countries included the selection of sustainability criteria and measurable indicators. Experts weighted the criteria using personal interviews and a multi-stakeholder workshop. This method was applied to three potential CDM projects in South Africa and one in Uruguay. Results show that under the conditions of this study, the MATA-CDM approach yet fails to yield a perfect quantitative overall sustainability assessment of CDM projects but that several findings could be useful to further develop the approach with the aim to translate the vague term sustainable development to a mainstream project level. Valuable experience was in particular collected with different stakeholder processes to perform criteria weighting.     

Soil organic horizons as a major source for radiocesium biorecycling in forest ecosystems

Here we review some of the main processes and key parameters affecting the mobility of radiocesium in soils of semi-natural areas. We further illustrate them in a collection of soil surface horizons which largely differ in their organic matter contents. In soils, specific retention of radiocesium occurs in a very small number of sorbing sites, which are the frayed edge sites (FES) born out of weathered micaceous minerals. The FES abundance directly governs the mobility of trace Cs in the rhizosphere and thus its transfer from soil to plant. Here, we show that the accumulation of organic matter in topsoils can exert a dilution of FES-bearing minerals in the thick humus of some forest soils. Consequently, such accumulation significantly contributes to increasing 137Cs soil-to-plant transfer. Potassium depletion and extensive exploration of the organic horizons by plant roots can further enhance the contamination hazard. As humus thickness depends on both ecological conditions and forest management. our observations support the following ideas: (1) forest ecosystems can be classified according to their sensitivity to radiocesium bio-recycling, (2) specific forest management could be searched to decrease such bio-recycling.     

Soil erosion and the global carbon budget

Soil erosion is the most widespread form of soil degradation. Land area globally affected by erosion is 1094 million ha (Mha) by water erosion, of which 751 Mha is severely affected, and 549 Mha by wind erosion, of which 296 Mha is severely affected. Whereas the effects of erosion on productivity and non-point source pollution are widely recognized, those on the C dynamics and attendant emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are not. Despite its global significance, erosion-induced carbon (C) emission into the atmosphere remains misunderstood and an unquantified component of the global carbon budget. Soil erosion is a four-stage process involving detachment, breakdown, transport/redistribution and deposition of sediments. The soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is influenced during all four stages. Being a selective process, erosion preferentially removes the light organic fraction of a low density of <1.8 Mg/m(3). A combination of mineralization and C export by erosion causes a severe depletion of the SOC pool on eroded compared with uneroded or slightly eroded soils. In addition, the SOC redistributed over the landscape or deposited in depressional sites may be prone to mineralization because of breakdown of aggregates leading to exposure of hitherto encapsulated C to microbial processes among other reasons. Depending on the delivery ratio or the fraction of the sediment delivered to the river system, gross erosion by water may be 75 billion Mg, of which 15-20 billion Mg are transported by the rivers into the aquatic ecosystems and eventually into the ocean. The amount of total C displaced by erosion on the earth, assuming a delivery ratio of 10% and SOC content of 2-3%, may be 4.0-6.0 Pg/year. With 20% emission due to mineralization of the displaced C, erosion-induced emission may be 0.8-1.2 Pg C/year on the earth. Thus, soil erosion has a strong impact on the global C cycle and this component must be considered while assessing the global C budget. Adoption of conservation-effective measures may reduce the risks of C emission and sequester C in soil and biota.     

Soil carbon stocks after conversion of Amazonian tropical forest to grazed pasture: importance of deep soil layers

Recent studies suggest that carbon (C) is stored in the topsoil of pastures established after deforestation. However, little is known about the long-term capacity of tropical pastures to sequester C in different soil layers after deforestation. Deep soil layers are generally not taken into consideration or are underestimated when C storage is calculated. Here we show that in French Guiana, the C stored in the deep soil layers contributes significantly to C stocks down to a depth of 100 cm and that C is sequestered in recalcitrant soil organic matter in the soil below a depth of 20 cm. The contribution of the 50–100 cm soil layer increased from 22 to 31 % with the age of the pasture. We show that long-term C sequestration in C4 tropical pastures is linked to the development of C3 species (legumes and shrubs), which increase both inputs of N into the ecosystem and the C:N ratio of soil organic matter. The deep soil under old pastures contained more C3 carbon than the native forest. If C sequestration in the deep soil is taken into account, our results suggest that the soil C stock in pastures in Amazonia would be higher with sustainable pasture management, in particular by promoting the development of legumes already in place and by introducing new species.     

Mycogenic decomposition of wood and carbon emission in forest ecosystems

Problems related to biological decomposition of wood and volumes of mycogenic emission of carbon dioxide and carbon in forests of Western Siberia are considered. Annual C-CO₂ emission in the region reaches 31 million tons of carbon, which is equivalent to 116 million tons of carbon dioxide. With respect to the volume of emission, natural zones may be arranged in the following descending series: southern taiga (38%), middle taiga (29%), subtaiga (16%), forest-steppe (10%), northern taiga (6%), and forest-tundra (1%).     

Accurate modeling of harvesting is key for projecting future forest dynamics: a case study in the Slovenian mountains

Maintaining the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services requires to take into consideration forest sensitivity and adaptability to a changing environment. In this context, dynamic models are indispensable to assess the combined effects of management and climate change on forest dynamics. We evaluated the importance of implementing different approaches for simulating forest management in the climate-sensitive gap model ForClim and compared its outputs with forest inventory data at multiple sites across the European Alps. The model was then used to study forest dynamics in representative silver fir–European beech stands in the Dinaric Mountains (Slovenia) under current management and different climate scenarios. On average, ForClim accurately predicted the development of basal area and stem numbers, but the type of harvesting algorithm used and the information for stand initialization are key elements that must be defined carefully. Empirical harvesting functions that rigorously impose the number and size of stems to remove fail to reproduce stand dynamics when growth is just slightly under- or overestimated, and thus should be substituted by analytical thinning algorithms that are based on stochastic distribution functions. Long-term simulations revealed that both management and climate change negatively impact conifer growth and regeneration. Under current climate, most of the simulated stands were dominated by European beech at the end of the simulation (i.e., 2150 AD), due to the decline of silver fir and Norway spruce caused mainly by harvesting. This trend was amplified under climate change as growth of European beech was favored by higher temperatures, in contrast to drought-induced growth reductions in both conifers. This forest development scenario is highly undesired by local managers who aim at preserving conifers with high economic value. Overall, our results suggest that maintaining a considerable share of conifers in these forests may not be feasible under climate change, especially at lower elevations where foresters should consider alternative management strategies.     

Holocene dynamics of forest ecosystems on the upper plateau of the Volga Upland

Main stages in the development of forest ecosystems on the upper plateau of the Volga Upland in the Holocene have been reconstructed by analyzing palynological assemblages from peat deposits. Dominance of the forest landscape in the region began in the Boreal time. Pine and, to a lesser extent, birch were the main forest-forming species, whereas the role of spruce was never significant. Broad-leaved species appeared in forests in the early Atlantic time. The formation of floodplain and upland bogs began at the end of the Boreal time and in the first half of the Atlantic time, respectively. Significant anthropogenic changes in the vegetation began in the Subboreal time.     

Holocene dynamics of forest ecosystems on the upper plateau of the Volga Upland

Main stages in the development of forest ecosystems on the lower plateau of the Volga Upland in the Holocene have been reconstructed by analyzing palynological assemblages from peat deposits. It was established that the steppe cenosis dominated from 12000 to 8500 years ago, forest and steppe communities were equally dominant further up to 6000 years ago, mainly forest communities were dominant up to 3200 years ago, and then domination again passed to forest-steppe landscapes with a predominance of steppe communities.     

Radiocarbon and stable carbon isotope compositions of chemically fractionated soil organic matter in a temperate-zone forest

To better understand the role of soil organic matter in terrestrial carbon cycle, carbon isotope compositions in soil samples from a temperate-zone forest were measured for bulk, acid-insoluble and base-insoluble organic matter fractions separated by a chemical fractionation method. The measurements also made it possible to estimate indirectly radiocarbon ((14)C) abundances of acid- and base-soluble organic matter fractions, through a mass balance of carbon among the fractions. The depth profiles of (14)C abundances showed that (1) bomb-derived (14)C has penetrated the first 16cm mineral soil at least; (2) Delta(14)C values of acid-soluble organic matter fraction are considerably higher than those of other fractions; and (3) a significant amount of the bomb-derived (14)C has been preserved as the base-soluble organic matter around litter-mineral soil boundary. In contrast, no or little bomb-derived (14)C was observed for the base-insoluble fraction in all sampling depths, indicating that this recalcitrant fraction, accounting for approximately 15% of total carbon in this temperate-zone forest soil, plays a role as a long-term sink in the carbon cycle. These results suggest that bulk soil organic matter cannot provide a representative indicator as a source or a sink of carbon in soil, particularly on annual to decadal timescales.     

Some methodological and conceptual uncertainties in estimating the income component of the forest carbon cycle

Consideration is given to uncertainties related to methods for assessing the above and belowground phytomass and primary production of forest stands in test plots, as well as for extrapolating the results to forested areas.     

Seeing the forest not for the carbon: why concentrating on land-use-induced carbon stock changes of soils in Brazil can be climate-unfriendly

Regional Environmental Change - Soil carbon stocks of 29 plots along a transect through tropical Brazil showed only minor soil carbon losses after land use shift, although replacement of...     

Depth profiles of radiocarbon and carbon isotopic compositions of organic matter and CO2 in a forest soil

Depth profiles of the specific activities of (14)C and carbon isotopic compositions (Delta(14)C, delta(13)C) in soil organic matter and soil CO(2) in a Japanese larch forest were determined. For investigating the transport of CO(2) in soil, specific activities of (14)C, Delta(14)C and delta(13)C in the organic layer, and atmospheric CO(2) in the same forest area were also determined. The specific activity of (14)C and Delta(14)C in the soil organic matter decreased with the increase in depth of 0-60cm, while that of soil CO(2) did not vary greatly at a soil depth of 13-73cm and was more prevalent than that of atmospheric CO(2). Peaks of specific activities of (14)C appeared at the depth of 0-4cm and Delta(14)C values were positive in the depth range from 0 to 15cm. These results suggest that the present soil at a depth of 0-4cm had been produced from the mid-1950s up until 1963, and the bomb C had reached the depth of 15cm in the objective soil area. The delta(13)C in the soil organic matter increased at the depth of 0-55cm, while that of soil CO(2) collected on 8 November 2004 decreased rapidly at the depth of 0-13cm and only slightly at the depth of 53-73cm. By combining the Delta(14)C and delta(13)C of the respective components and using the Keeling plot approach it was made clear that the entering of atmospheric CO(2) showed a large contribution to soil CO(2) at the depth of 0-13cm and a negligible contribution at the depth of 53-73cm for soil air collected on 8 November 2004. Respiration of live roots was presumed to be the main source of soil CO(2) at the depth of 53-73cm on 8 November 2004.     

Long-term dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in Austria: a comprehensive assessment of the time period from 1830 to 2000

This article presents a comprehensive data set on Austria’s terrestrial carbon stocks from the beginnings of industrialization in the year 1830 to the present. It is based on extensive historical and recent land use and forestry data derived from primary sources (cadastral surveys) for the early nineteenth century, official statistics available for later parts of the nineteenth century as well as the twentieth century, and forest inventory data covering the second half of the twentieth century. Total carbon stocks—i.e. aboveground and belowground standing crop and soil organic carbon—are calculated for the entire period and compared to those of potential vegetation. Results suggest that carbon stocks were roughly constant from 1830 to 1880 and have grown considerably from 1880 to 2000, implying that Austria’s vegetation has acted as a carbon sink since the late nineteenth century. Carbon stocks increased by 20% from approximately 1.0 GtC in 1830 and 1880 to approximately 1.2 GtC in the year 2000, a value still much lower than the amount of carbon terrestrial ecosystems are expected to contain in the absence of land use: According to calculations presented in this article, potential vegetation would contain some 2.0 GtC or 162% of the present terrestrial carbon stock, suggesting that the recent carbon sink results from a recovery of biota from intensive use in the past. These findings are in line with the forest transition hypothesis which claims that forest areas are growing in industrialized countries. Growth in forest area and rising carbon stocks per unit area of forests both contribute to the carbon sink. We discuss the hypothesis that the carbon sink is mainly caused by the shift from area-dependent energy sources (biomass) in agrarian societies to the largely area-independent energy system of industrial societies based above all on fossil fuels.     

Mediterranean cyclones and windstorms in a changing climate

Changes in the frequency and intensity of cyclones and associated windstorms affecting the Mediterranean region simulated under enhanced Greenhouse Gas forcing conditions are investigated. The analysis is based on 7 climate model integrations performed with two coupled global models (ECHAM5 MPIOM and INGV CMCC), comparing the end of the twentieth century and at least the first half of the twenty-first century. As one of the models has a considerably enhanced resolution of the atmosphere and the ocean, it is also investigated whether the climate change signals are influenced by the model resolution. While the higher resolved simulation is closer to reanalysis climatology, both in terms of cyclones and windstorm distributions, there is no evidence for an influence of the resolution on the sign of the climate change signal. All model simulations show a reduction in the total number of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region under climate change conditions. Exceptions are Morocco and the Levant region, where the models predict an increase in the number of cyclones. The reduction is especially strong for intense cyclones in terms of their Laplacian of pressure. The influence of the simulated positive shift in the NAO Index on the cyclone decrease is restricted to the Western Mediterranean region, where it explains 10–50 % of the simulated trend, depending on the individual simulation. With respect to windstorms, decreases are simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. This overall reduction is due to a decrease in the number of events associated with local cyclones, while the number of events associated with cyclones outside of the Mediterranean region slightly increases. These systems are, however, less intense in terms of their integrated severity over the Mediterranean area, as they mostly affect the fringes of the region. In spite of the general reduction in total numbers, several cyclones and windstorms of intensity unknown under current climate conditions are identified for the scenario simulations. For these events, no common trend exists in the individual simulations. Thus, they may rather be attributed to long-term (e.g. decadal) variability than to the Greenhouse Gas forcing. Nevertheless, the result indicates that high-impact weather systems will remain an important risk in the Mediterranean Basin.