BETR global--a geographically-explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15° × 15° grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).     

Estimating half-lives of pesticides in/on vegetation for use in multimedia fate and exposure models

Degradation half-lives in/on vegetation are needed in environmental risk assessment of pesticides, but these data are often not available for most active ingredients. To address this, we first correlated experimental soil degradation half-life data of 41 pesticides obtained from the reviewed literature with the corresponding experimental half-lives on plant surface. Degradation half-lives in soil were found to be four times slower compared with half-lives on plant surfaces. In a second step, we explored measured plant surface half-lives directly with those in vegetation. The results were validated by comparing computed values with results obtained from an experimental set-up. The uptake and dissipation of alpha-cypermethrin (insecticide) and bromopropylate (acaricide) was studied by detecting pesticide residues in whole and peeled tomato fruits using gas chromatography. Half-lives within vegetation were found to be four times faster compared with plant surface half-lives. Using this experimental based approach, it is concluded that the estimation of degradation half-lives of pesticides in/on vegetation to be used as input data in environmental mass balance models can be directly correlated from the more abundant ready experimental degradation half-life data for soil.     

A multimedia environmental model of chemical distribution: fate, transport, and uncertainty analysis

This paper presented a framework for analysis of chemical concentration in the environment and evaluation of variance propagation within the model. This framework was illustrated through a case study of selected organic compounds of benzo[alpha]pyrene (BAP) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in the Great Lakes region. A multimedia environmental fate model was applied to perform stochastic simulations of chemical concentrations in various media. Both uncertainty in chemical properties and variability in hydrometeorological parameters were included in the Monte Carlo simulation, resulting in a distribution of concentrations in each medium. Parameters of compartmental dimensions, densities, emissions, and background concentrations were assumed to be constant in this study. The predicted concentrations in air, surface water and sediment were compared to reported data for validation purpose. Based on rank correlations, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the influence of individual input parameters on the output variance for concentration in each environmental medium and for the basin-wide total mass inventory. Results of model validation indicated that the model predictions were in reasonable agreement with spatial distribution patterns, among the five lake basins, of reported data in the literature. For the chemical and environmental parameters given in this study, parameters associated to air-ground partitioning (such as moisture in surface soil, vapor pressure, and deposition velocity) and chemical distribution in soil solid (such as organic carbon partition coefficient and organic carbon content in root-zone soil) were targeted to reduce the uncertainty in basin-wide mass inventory. This results of sensitivity analysis in this study also indicated that the model sensitivity to an input parameter might be affected by the magnitudes of input parameters defined by the parameter settings in the simulation scenario. Therefore, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for environmental fate models was suggested to be conducted after the model output was validated based on an appropriate input parameter settings.     

BETR North America: a regionally segmented multimedia contaminant fate model for North America

We present the Berkeley-Trent North American contaminant fate model (BETR North America), a regionally segmented multimedia contaminant fate model based on the fugacity concept. The model is built on a framework that links contaminant fate models of individual regions, and is generally applicable to large, spatially heterogeneous areas. The North American environment is modeled as 24 ecological regions, within each region contaminant fate is described using a 7 compartment multimedia fugacity model including a vertically segmented atmosphere, freshwater, freshwater sediment, soil, coastal water and vegetation compartments. Inter-regional transport of contaminants in the atmosphere, freshwater and coastal water is described using a database of hydrological and meteorological data compiled with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) techniques. Steady-state and dynamic solutions to the 168 mass balance equations that make up the linked model for North America are discussed, and an illustrative case study of toxaphene transport from the southern United States to the Great Lakes Basin is presented. Regionally segmented models such as BETR North America can provide a critical link between evaluative models of long-range transport potential and contaminant concentrations observed in remote regions. The continent-scale mass balance calculated by the model provides a sound basis for evaluating long-range transport potential of organic pollutants, and formulation of continent-scale management and regulatory strategies for chemicals.     

UNITTree A multimedia compartment model to estimate the fate of lipophilic compounds in plants

A dynamic model was developed for the distribution of chemicals in plants, and was applied to describe the distribution in 15 year old spruce (Picea abies). A scenario with underlying air and rain concentrations, and emission onto plant surfaces into soilwater and on air particles is calculated for 2,4-Dichlorophenol, 2,3,7,8-TCDD, simazine, hexachlorobenzene and lindane for a period of 5000 h.     

An object-oriented software for fate and exposure assessments

The model system CemoS¹ (Chemical Exposure Model System) was developed for the exposure prediction of hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Eight different models were implemented involving chemicals fate simulation in air, water, soil and plants after continuous or single emissions from point and diffuse sources. Scenario studies are supported by a substance and an environmental data base. All input data are checked on their plausibility. Substance and environmental process estimation functions facilitate generic model calculations. CemoS is implemented in a modular structure using object-oriented programming. e-mail: cemos@aphrodite.mathematik.uni-osnabrueck.de     

Development of continental scale multimedia contaminant fate models: integrating GIS

The incentives and approaches for modelling chemical fate at a continental scale are discussed and reviewed. It is suggested that a multi-media model consisting of some 20-30 regions, each of which contains typically seven environmental compartments represents a reasonable compromise between the issues of the need for detailed resolution, avoidance of excessive data demands and inherent complexity and transparency. Strategies adopted in compiling the Berkley-Trent (BETR) model for North America are discussed and used to illustrate the issues of selecting appropriate number and nature of segments, treatment of air and water flows and the acquisition of environmental data. It is suggested that GIS software can play a valuable role in gathering and processing such data and in the display and interpretation of the results of the model assessment. The BETR model will be a useful tool for describing the nature of persistence and long-range transport of chemicals of concern in the North American environment.     

Fugacity superposition: a new approach to dynamic multimedia fate modeling

The fugacities, concentrations, or inventories of pollutants in environmental compartments as determined by multimedia environmental fate models of the Mackay type can be superimposed on each other. This is true for both steady-state (level III) and dynamic (level IV) models. Any problem in multimedia fate models with linear, time-invariant transfer and transformation coefficients can be solved through a superposition of a set of n independent solutions to a set of coupled, homogeneous first-order differential equations, where n is the number of compartments in the model. For initial condition problems in dynamic models, the initial inventories can be separated, e.g. by a compartment. The solution is obtained by adding the single-compartment solutions. For time-varying emissions, a convolution integral is used to superimpose solutions. The advantage of this approach is that the differential equations have to be solved only once. No numeric integration is required. Alternatively, the dynamic model can be simplified to algebraic equations using the Laplace transform. For time-varying emissions, the Laplace transform of the model equations is simply multiplied with the Laplace transform of the emission profile. It is also shown that the time-integrated inventories of the initial conditions problems are the same as the inventories in the steady-state problem. This implies that important properties of pollutants such as potential dose, persistence, and characteristic travel distance can be derived from the steady state.     

Guidelines for selection and application of fate and exposure models

Guidelines for selection and application of fate and exposure models were developed as an instrument for the user to detect the most appropriate model for his/her special problem. Criteria for evaluating the quality and performance of implemented computer programmes and the underlying theory were defined. A model data bank for exposure models was developed which involves selection and quality characteristics; it was tested with ten randomly selected exposure models.     

Spatially differentiated and source-specific population exposure to ambient urban air pollution

Models assessing exposure to air pollution often focus on macro-scale estimates of exposure to all types of sources for a particular pollutant across an urban study area. While results based on these models may aid policy makers in identifying larger areas of elevated exposure risk, they often do not differentiate the proportion of population exposure attributable to different polluting sources (e.g. traffic or industrial). In this paper, we introduce a population exposure modeling system that integrates air dispersion modeling, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and population exposure techniques to spatially characterize a source-specific exposure to ambient air pollution for an entire urban population at a fine geographical scale. By area, total population exposure in Dallas County in 2000 was more attributable to vehicle polluting sources than industrial polluting sources at all levels of exposure. Population exposure was moderately correlated with vehicle sources (r = 0.440, p < 0.001) and weakly with industrial sources (r = 0.069, p = 0.004). Population density was strongly correlated with total exposure (r = 0.896, p < 0.001) but was not significantly correlated with individual or combined sources. The results of this study indicate that air quality assessments must incorporate more than industrial or vehicle polluting sources-based population exposure values alone, but should consider multiple sources. The population exposure modeling system proposed in this study shows promise for use by municipal authorities, policy makers, and epidemiologists in evaluating and controlling the quality of the air in the process of urban planning and mitigation measures.     

A GIS-based multimedia watershed model: development and application

A multimedia model was developed using publicly available geographical information system (GIS) data, chemical release information and local monitoring networks to assess the fate of trichloroethene (TCE) within the Passaic River Watershed. Seven environmental media, air, water, sediment, surface soil, terrestrial vegetation, root zone soil and vadose zone soil, were modeled in this study along with their sub-compartments. The Passaic River Watershed is described using the NJDEP geographical information system (GIS) resources, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the United States Soil Conservation Services (US SCS) soil data. The introduction of spatial resolution to a multimedia, unsteady state model is performed in this work, and represents an important step in expanding the use of equilibrium models to provide far reaching information on the fate of toxic contaminants within a given environmental unit. The spatial representation of cross-boundary fluxes was successfully demonstrated with the use of sub-watershed as an environmental unit and the direct assessment of TCE for each of the 11 sub-watersheds that make up the Passaic River Basin in northern New Jersey. Important data gaps identified during the development of this model include the lack of comprehensive monitoring data on organic contaminants, and non-uniformity among available physical environmental data from different government agencies.     

Emission and fate assessment of methyl tertiary butyl ether in the Boston area airshed using a simple multimedia box model: comparison with urban air measurements

Expected urban air concentrations of the gasoline additive methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) were calculated using volatile emissions estimates and screening transport models, and these predictions were compared with Boston, MA, area urban air measurements. The total volatile flux of MTBE into the Boston primary metropolitan statistical area (PMSA) airshed was calculated based on estimated automobile nontailpipe emissions and the Universal Quasi-Chemical Functional-Group Activity Coefficient computed abundance of MTBE in gasoline vapor. The fate of MTBE in the Boston PMSA was assessed using both the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, which is a steady-state multimedia box model, and a simple airshed box model. Both models were parameterized based on the meteorological conditions observed during air sampling in the Boston area. Measured average urban air concentrations of 0.1 and 1 microg/m3 MTBE during February and September of 2000, respectively, were comparable to corresponding model predictions of 0.3 and 1 microg/m3 and could be essentially explained from estimated temperature-dependent volatile emissions rates, observed average wind speed (the airshed flushing rate), and reaction with ambient tropospheric hydroxyl radical (*OH), within model uncertainty. These findings support the proposition that one can estimate gasoline component source fluxes and use simple multimedia models to screen the potential impact of future proposed gasoline additives on urban airsheds.     

Prediction of overall persistence and long-range transport potential with multimedia fate models: robustness and sensitivity of results

The hazard indicators persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) are used in chemicals assessment to characterize chemicals with regard to the temporal and spatial extent of their environmental exposure. They are often calculated based on the results of multimedia fate models. The environmental and substance-specific input parameters of such models are subject to a range of methodological uncertainties and also influenced by natural variability. We employed probabilistic uncertainty analysis to quantify variance in P and LRTP predictions for chemicals with different partitioning and transport behavior. Variance found in the results is so large that it prevents a clear distinction between chemicals. Additionally, only small improvements are observed when evaluating the results relative to a benchmark chemical. This can be explained by the dominance of substance-specific parameters and the only small direct influence of environmental parameters on P and LRTP as model outcomes. The findings underline the importance of learning how environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior for improved substance ranking and classification.     

Simulation of long-term environmental dynamics of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans using the dynamic multimedia environmental fate model and its implication to the time trend analysis of dioxins

Long term environmental fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) were studied using the fugacity-based dynamic multimedia environmental fate model. New formulation about soil wind erosion into air was included into the model. Effect of process assumption, sensitivity analysis for parameters, and tentative validation against the measured sediment core analysis was performed. Mass fluxes between compartments were estimated by the dynamic modeling. From the model estimates, major mass fluxes coming from emission source were shown to go to the soil and water through wet/dry deposition, then go to degradation mainly in the soil and sediment. Major mass fluxes of TCDD and OCDD come from the impurities in CNP (Chlornitrofen) and PCP (Pentachlorophenol) directly into the soil. Consideration about multimedia environmental dynamics using the modeled mass fluxes was shown in the discussion.     

The spatial scale of organic chemicals in multimedia fate modeling. Recent developments and significance for chemical assessment

In the last years, the spatial range (SR) or characteristic travel distance (CTD) of organic chemicals has found increasing scientific interest as an indicator of the long-range transport (LRT) potential and, in combination with persistence, as a kind of 'hazard' indicator on the exposure level. This development coincides with European debates about more effective and more preventive approaches to the chemicals assessment, and about an international, legally-binding instrument for the phase out of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Persistence and LRT potential are important issues in these debates. Here, the development of the concept of assessing the spatial scale from early ideas in the 1970s and 1980s to recent studies in the field of multimedia fate and transport modeling is summarized. Different approaches to the modeling of environmental transport (advective and dispersive) and different methods for quantifying the SR or CTD are compared. Relationships between SR or CTD and different persistence measures are analyzed. Comparison of these relationships shows that conclusions for chemical assessment should be based on an evaluation of different persistence and spatial scale measures. The use of SR or CTD and persistence as hazard indicators in the chemicals assessment is illustrated.