Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.     

Systematic Conservation Planning and the Cost of Tackling Conservation Conflicts with Large Carnivores in Italy

Abstract:  Conservation in Europe (including the establishment of protected areas) is undertaken mainly through legislation and on densely populated private land. Consequently, conflicts of interest arise between human economic activities and biodiversity conservation. We used a systematic approach to conservation planning to explore different conservation scenarios for the Apennine populations of wolves (Canis lupus) and bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) in Italy. The conservation measures we considered were electrified fences and guard dogs to prevent wolves and bears from preying on sheep. We used habitat suitability models of the two species as an estimate of their distributions. Across the study area, we estimated the potential intensity of conflict caused by predation on sheep and the cost of the antipredator measures. We examined scenarios for the conservation of wolves and bears that identified systems of sites where antipredator measures should be applied to either minimize the economic cost of the plan or tackle a predetermined amount of conflict. The overall cost of the conservation plans ranged between €1,486,000 and €16,876,000, depending on the scenario and on the size of the conservation target. Because potential conflict intensity (i.e., potential predation) and cost of conflict resolution were correlated, the scenarios that minimized cost also minimized the amount of conflict that was addressed. Conserving these two species by addressing their predation on sheep was up to 4.36 times more expensive than conserving them by providing suitable habitat in areas of low conflict. Yet avoiding conflicts is not always desirable because it can drastically reduce the options for conservation. Choosing a conservation plan requires consideration of the level of threat to the target species and their sensitivity to conflicts.     

Identifying Conservation Areas on the Basis of Alternative Distribution Data Sets

Abstract:  Distribution data on biodiversity features is a major component of conservation planning that are often inaccurate; thus, the true distribution of each feature is commonly over- or underrepresented. The selection of distribution data sets may therefore lead to variability in the spatial configuration and size of proposed reserve networks and uncertainty regarding the extent to which these networks actually contain the biodiversity features they were identified to protect. Our goals were to investigate the impact on reserve selection of choosing different distribution data sets and to propose novel methods to minimize uncertainty about target attainment within reserves. To do so, we used common prioritization methods (richness mapping, systematic reserve design, and a novel approach that integrates multiple types of distribution data) and three types of data on the distribution of mammals (predicted distribution models, occurrence records, and a novel combination of the two) to simulate the establishment of regional biodiversity reserves for the state of Arizona (U.S.A.). Using the results of these simulations, we explored variability in reserve placement and size as a function of the distribution data set. Spatial overlap of reserve networks identified with only predicted distribution data or only occurrence distribution data never exceeded 16%. In pairwise comparisons between reserves created with all three types of distribution data, overlap never achieved 50%. The reserve size required to meet conservation targets also varied with the type of distribution data used and the conservation goal; the largest reserve system was 10 times the smallest. Our results highlight the impact of employing different types of distribution data and identify novel tools for application to existing distribution data sets that can minimize uncertainty about target attainment.     

Current Practices and Future Opportunities for Policy on Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.     

Planning for Long, Wide Conservation Corridors on Private Lands in the Oak Ridges Moraine, Ontario, Canada

Abstract:  We explored the role of conservation biology in the planning of a natural-heritage system that includes long, wide conservation corridors situated primarily on private lands, and established to connect natural core areas in the Oak Ridges Moraine of Ontario, Canada. We based our review on government documents, semi-structured interviews with participants involved in this land-use planning process, and our involvement with the issue from 1990 through 2002. Conservation biology had a major influence on the outcome of the land-use planning process for this moraine. The landform was identified as an area of value by the environmental movement within the context of a number of ongoing government studies that began in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Conservation biologists and planners in government, the environmental movement, and the private sector carried out work related to conservation biology, including inventories and the development and application of criteria for the delineation of core areas and conservation corridors. Once the political timing was favorable (2001–2002), decision makers linked the science of conservation biology to planning policies and law in Ontario. The Oak Ridges Moraine land-use planning process was precedent setting in Canada, and possibly internationally. To our knowledge this is the first time long, wide conservation corridors on private lands were regulated through land-use-planning legislation and led to restrictions on urban development and aggregate resource extraction.     

Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

Effectiveness of Environmental Surrogates for the Selection of Conservation Area Networks

Abstract:  Rapid biodiversity assessment and conservation planning require the use of easily quantified and estimated surrogates for biodiversity. Using data sets from Québec and Queensland, we applied four methods to assess the extent to which environmental surrogates can represent biodiversity components: (1) surrogacy graphs; (2) marginal representation plots; (3) Hamming distance function; and (4) Syrjala statistical test for spatial congruence. For Québec we used 719 faunal and floral species as biodiversity components, and for Queensland we used 2348 plant species. We used four climatic parameter types (annual mean temperature, minimum temperature during the coldest quarter, maximum temperature during the hottest quarter, and annual precipitation), along with slope, elevation, aspect, and soil types, as environmental surrogates. To study the effect of scale, we analyzed the data at seven spatial scales ranging from 0.01° to 0.10° longitude and latitude. At targeted representations of 10% for environmental surrogates and biodiversity components, all four methods indicated that using a full set of environmental surrogates systematically provided better results than selecting areas at random, usually ensuring that ≥90% of the biodiversity components achieved the 10% targets at scales coarser than 0.02°. The performance of surrogates improved with coarser spatial resolutions. Thus, environmental surrogate sets are useful tools for biodiversity conservation planning. A recommended protocol for the use of such surrogates consists of randomly selecting a set of areas for which distributional data are available, identifying an optimal surrogate set based on these areas, and subsequently prioritizing places for conservation based on the optimal surrogate set.     

Identifying Habitat Variables Important to the Rare Columbia Spotted Frog in Utah (U.S.A.): an Information-Theoretic Approach

Abstract:  We identified habitat associations of the rare Columbia spotted frog (  Rana luteiventris ). We used an information-theoretic approach that encouraged careful consideration of previous studies, demanded a priori formulation of hypotheses and models, and provided interpretable results while avoiding some criticisms of traditional statistical analyses. We formulated hypotheses about habitat associations based on conductivity, emergent vegetation, littoral zone depth, pond hydrology, and water temperature. We modeled hypothesized associations with logistic regression and used Akaike's information criterion to quantify evidence for models, weigh the relative importance of each habitat variable, and select predictive models. Although variable, results suggested that spotted frogs are more likely to occur in ponds that do not shrink in size seasonally, maintain relatively constant seasonal water temperature, and have high emergent vegetation cover. Associations we identified will assist actions in Utah that may be critical to local persistence of spotted frogs. Moreover, this approach for identifying associations has great potential for other rare species.     

Monitoring Change in Vertebrate Abundance: the Living Planet Index

Abstract:  The task of measuring the decline of global biodiversity and instituting changes to halt and reverse this downturn has been taken up in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2010 target. It is an undertaking made more difficult by the complex nature of biodiversity and the consequent difficulty in accurately gauging its depletion. In the Living Planet Index, aggregated population trends among vertebrate species indicate the rate of change in the status of biodiversity, and this index can be used to address the question of whether or not the 2010 target has been achieved. We investigated the use of generalized additive models in aggregating large quantities of population trend data, evaluated potential bias that results from collation of existing trends, and explored the feasibility of disaggregating the data (e.g., geographically, taxonomically, regionally, and by thematic area). Our results show strengths in length and completeness of data, little evidence of bias toward threatened species, and the possibility of disaggregation into meaningful subsets. Limitations of the data set are still apparent, in particular the dominance of bird data and gaps in tropical-species population coverage. Population-trend data complement the longer-term, but more coarse-grained, perspectives gained by evaluating species-level extinction rates. To measure progress toward the 2010 target, indicators must be adapted and strategically supplemented with existing data to generate meaningful indicators in time. Beyond 2010, it is critical a strategy be set out for the future development of indicators that will deal with existing data gaps and that is intricately tied to the goals of future biodiversity targets.     

Economic Growth,Climate Change,Biodiversity Loss: Distributive Justice for the Global North and South

Abstract: Economic growth‐the increase in production and consumption of goods and services‐must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons‐some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs‐how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate‐change regime based on principles of equity. An equity‐based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap‐and‐trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity‐based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.     

A Multispecies Framework for Landscape Conservation Planning

Abstract: Rapidly changing landscapes have spurred the need for quantitative methods for conservation assessment and planning that encompass large spatial extents. We devised and tested a multispecies framework for conservation planning to complement single‐species assessments and ecosystem‐level approaches. Our framework consisted of 4 elements: sampling to effectively estimate population parameters, measuring how human activity affects landscapes at multiple scales, analyzing the relation between landscape characteristics and individual species occurrences, and evaluating and comparing the responses of multiple species to landscape modification. We applied the approach to a community of terrestrial birds across 25,000 km² with a range of intensities of human development. Human modification of land cover, road density, and other elements of the landscape, measured at multiple spatial extents, had large effects on occupancy of the 67 species studied. Forest composition within 1 km of points had a strong effect on occupancy of many species and a range of negative, intermediate, and positive associations. Road density within 1 km of points, percent evergreen forest within 300 m, and distance from patch edge were also strongly associated with occupancy for many species. We used the occupancy results to group species into 11 guilds that shared patterns of association with landscape characteristics. Our multispecies approach to conservation planning allowed us to quantify the trade‐offs of different scenarios of land‐cover change in terms of species occupancy.     

Assessing Suitability for Conservation Action: Prioritizing Interpond Linkages for the California Tiger Salamander

Abstract:  Conservation organizations and public agencies are interested in identifying and prioritizing areas for conservation action, often acquisition or easements. Typically, this requires the use of uncertain data and vaguely defined decision criteria. I developed a decision support system to address these uncertainty issues and assist in evaluating conservation opportunities for the endangered California tiger salamander ( Ambystoma californiense ) in Santa Barbara, California. Functionally defined planning units were used to aggregate data on land suitability, land cover change, salamander presence, and movement risk along potential linkages between breeding ponds. I used a fuzzy-logic-based inference engine to evaluate the planning units and rank the relative suitability of interpond linkages for conservation action. The sensitivity of the rankings was considered with respect to uncertainty in salamander occurrence data and the relationship between land-cover-change threats and site suitability. All linkages were substantially degraded, but five areas were consistently identified with high relative suitability for conservation action despite differences in assumptions and uncertainty in biological data. The combination of functionally defined planning units and a fuzzy-logic-based decision support system provides a general framework for considering the suitability of sites for conservation action.     

Planning for Biodiversity: the Role of Ecological Impact Assessment

Abstract:  Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is the process of identifying potential environmental effects of proposed development and the required mitigation measures. It is one of the most widely used planning tools today, but its ability to promote biodiversity conservation is largely unexplored. We studied the ecological component of the Israeli EIA system by reviewing a representative sample of 52 environmental impact statements (EISs) produced since 1995 and their corresponding guidelines issued by the Ministry of the Environment. Quality of both EISs and guidelines was determined using a simple scoring approach. Lack of quantitative data, meaningful analyses, and ecosystem perspective was apparent throughout. Many EISs failed to perform field surveys and their qualitative nature hampered meaningful impact prediction. Most EISs concentrated on aesthetic mitigation measures and did not assess their feasibility and likely success. Most of these flaws reflect poor standards rather than true scientific limitations. Guideline quality scores were the most important factor determining the quality of EISs; second was the involvement of an ecological consultant in preparing the EIS. We found a decreasing trend of EIS quality scores over time. Improvements in EIA procedures, particularly in ecological guidelines and the incorporation of ecological consultation, are important for upgrading ecological impact assessment so that the potential of EIA to advance biodiversity conservation can be realized.     

Toward a Management Framework for Networks of Protected Areas in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract: Networks of sites of high importance for conservation of biological diversity are a cornerstone of current conservation strategies but are fixed in space and time. As climate change progresses, substantial shifts in species’ ranges may transform the ecological community that can be supported at a given site. Thus, some species in an existing network may not be protected in the future or may be protected only if they can move to sites that in future provide suitable conditions. We developed an approach to determine appropriate climate‐change adaptation strategies for individual sites within a network that was based on projections of future changes in the relative proportions of emigrants (species for which a site becomes climatically unsuitable), colonists (species for which a site becomes climatically suitable), and persistent species (species able to remain within a site despite the climatic change). Our approach also identifies key regions where additions to a network could enhance its future effectiveness. Using the sub‐Saharan African Important Bird Area (IBA) network as a case study, we found that appropriate conservation strategies for individual sites varied widely across sub‐Saharan Africa, and key regions where new sites could help increase network robustness varied in space and time. Although these results highlight the potential difficulties within any planning framework that seeks to address climate‐change adaptation needs, they demonstrate that such planning frameworks are necessary, if current conservation strategies are to be adapted effectively, and feasible, if applied judiciously.     

Climate Change,Marine Environments,and the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Climate change is expected to be a top driver of global biodiversity loss in the 21st century. It poses new challenges to conserving and managing imperiled species, particularly in marine and estuarine ecosystems. The use of climate‐related science in statutorily driven species management, such as under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), is in its early stages. This article provides an overview of ESA processes, with emphasis on the mandate to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage listed marine, estuarine, and anadromous species. Although the ESA is specific to the United States, its requirements are broadly relevant to conservation planning. Under the ESA, species, subspecies, and “distinct population segments” may be listed as either endangered or threatened, and taking of most listed species (harassing, harming, pursuing, wounding, killing, or capturing) is prohibited unless specifically authorized via a case‐by‐case permit process. Government agencies, in addition to avoiding take, must ensure that actions they fund, authorize, or conduct are not likely to jeopardize a listed species’ continued existence or adversely affect designated critical habitat. Decisions for which climate change is likely to be a key factor include: determining whether a species should be listed under the ESA, designating critical habitat areas, developing species recovery plans, and predicting whether effects of proposed human activities will be compatible with ESA‐listed species’ survival and recovery. Scientific analyses that underlie these critical conservation decisions include risk assessment, long‐term recovery planning, defining environmental baselines, predicting distribution, and defining appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Although specific guidance is still evolving, it is clear that the unprecedented changes in global ecosystems brought about by climate change necessitate new information and approaches to conservation of imperiled species. El Cambio Climático, los Ecosistemas Marinos y el Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro     

Use of Land Facets to Plan for Climate Change: Conserving the Arenas,Not the Actors

Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human‐caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air–ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets—recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes—and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse‐filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context‐sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k‐means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land‐facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data‐rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.