MEAD (part II)-Predictions of radioactivity concentrations in the Irish Sea

The predictions from MEAD, a model that simulates the transport of radionuclides in the marine environment, are presented for the Irish Sea. MEAD predictions for (137)Cs and Pu(alpha) are presented following discharges from BNFL Sellafield and the predictions compared to measured data from near the discharge location and further a field in the Irish Sea. The model performs well in most circumstances given the uncertainties involved in both modelling and data collection although some inconsistencies in the predictions are found. MEAD is also compared to other models of radionuclide transport in the Irish Sea.     

Modelling radioactivity in the Irish Sea: From discharge to dose

In order to support authorised discharges of low level radioactive liquid effluent into coastal regions, mathematical models are required to robustly predict radiological impacts on critical groups of current and proposed changes to liquid discharges. The grid model presented here simulates the long term dispersion and transport of radioactivity discharged from the Sellafield site in Cumbria, UK, and the subsequent exposure of critical groups in Cumbria and across the Irish Sea in Northern Ireland. The fine grid of the model allows a good resolution of the seabed sediment distribution. This benefits the predictions for the last decades of low discharge level, when bed sediment can become a source of contamination by bringing back the legacy of past high discharges. This is highlighted by the dose comparison, where the predicted dose to Cumbria critical group follows well the dose estimated from environmental data during the low discharge level period.     

Distribution and sources of (129)I in rivers of the Baltic region

The concentration of (129)I was measured in 54 river waters discharging into the Baltic Sea from Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany. Sample collection was performed during a well-bracketed time interval (June-July 1999), thus allowing comparison of the rivers over a wide latitude range without the effect of long temporal spread. Although there is no direct input of anthropogenic (129)I in the watersheds, the concentration of the isotope is about two to three orders of magnitude higher than the expected pre-nuclear era natural values in the rivers of Finland and northern Sweden, and in the rivers of southern Sweden, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Germany; the (129)I concentration may reach five orders of magnitude higher. Furthermore, there are significant correlations between the (129)I concentration and latitude and/or distance from the North Sea and between (129)I and Cl. These findings suggest seawater as a main source of (129)I to the rivers through atmospheric transport. Of the many chemical parameters investigated, the pH may account for some of the variability in (129)I concentrations of the rivers. The contribution from nuclear weapon tests and the Chernobyl accident to the riverine (129)I is insignificant compared to the releases from the nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. The total flux of (129)I by rivers to the Baltic Sea and related basins represents minor amounts of the isotope pool in these marine waters. External radioactivity hazards from (129)I are considered to be negligible in the Baltic region. However, as the main (129)I intake to the human body is likely through water, due to the large amount of daily water consumption, more concern should be given to internal radioactivity hazard that may be associated with the isotope's localized elevated concentration in the human organs.     

POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.     

Can ECOPATH with ECOSIM enhance models of radionuclide flows in food webs? An example for 14C in a coastal food web in the Baltic Sea

In this study it was evaluated whether the ECOPATH with ECOSIM software could be used as a platform to facilitate the construction of models and study of transport and accumulation of radionuclides in aquatic food webs. The evaluation was based upon a food web model of carbon (C) and carbon-14 ((14)C) flow for a coastal area in the Baltic Sea, the ECOPATH, the ECOSIM and the ECOTRACE models. The original carbon flows and assumptions were easily incorporated into the ECOPATH and ECOSIM modelling environment. The new model was also well suited to drive a (14)C flow model (ECOTRACE) for each of the organisms included. ECOTRACE estimated steady-state concentrations of (14)C that were between 73 and 142% of the original flows. The results clearly show that there is great potential for a successful development of this approach for integrating scientific knowledge about food webs and radioecological models for aquatic systems.     

A novel approach to the sequential extraction of plutonium from oxic and anoxic sediment using sodium citrate to inhibit post-extraction resorption

Sequential extraction has been used extensively to study the solid partitioning of radionuclides in soils and sediments. A difficulty with sequential extraction is that radionuclides released by a particular extractant can be resorbed and artificially redistributed amongst the remaining solid phases. Here, we describe experiments (on selected model phase and natural materials), which were designed to determine whether the inclusion of a chelating agent (sodium citrate) in an established sequential extraction protocol (a) inhibits post-extraction resorption of plutonium, (b) increases non-targeted dissolution of sediment phases, and (c) gives rise to unwanted ligand competition for plutonium. The results clearly demonstrate the capacity of citrate to inhibit the resorption of plutonium from the various extractants, and confirm that there is no discernible increase in non-targeted phase dissolution, but indicate significant ligand competition with the carbonate phase. The merits of using citrate are discussed and an optimised sequential extraction protocol that includes citrate is proposed. Finally, the protocol is applied to oxic and anoxic sediments sampled in the NE Irish Sea and the Roads of Cherbourg, and it is shown that the bulk of the plutonium on these sediments is associated with the more labile geochemical fractions.     

Predictive model for the (14)C radioactivity in a plant following an exposure to airborne (14)CO(2) gas

This paper provides details of a dynamic compartment model for estimating the (14)C radioactivity in an agricultural plant exposed to an amount of airborne (14)CO(2) gas. The plant, in the model, is divided into two compartments, the plant body (shoot and root) and ears, to predict the radioactivity of different parts of a plant. The carbon transports from, to and between the compartments are described by the processes of a photosynthesis, respiration, and translocation. The carbon transport fluxes of these processes are determined from the growth rates of a plant, which are usually easily attained. The model predictions showed that the present model could converge to a region where the specific activity model is applicable when the elapsed exposure time was extended up to the harvest time of a plant. The (14)C activity of a plant was greatly affected by the elapsed exposure time, the developmental stages of a plant at an exposure time, and the airborne (14)C activity during an exposure. It was expected that the peak of the ears' (14)C activity appeared when the exposure time was close to the ears-maturity date. The model predictions agreed reasonably well with the measured (14)C radioactivity of the rice plants that were artificially exposed to (14)CO(2) of a high (14)C source for a short period of time in an exposure box.     

Temporal variation of Cs and Pu in the sea of Japan

Concentrations of the anthropogenic ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu in surface water of the Sea of Japan were in the ranges of 2·7–3·8 mBq l^-1 and 1·3–8·0 μBq l^-1, respectively, in 1993–1994, which are in the same order of magnitude as those in the North Pacific. The time-series data indicated a marked increase of surface ¹³⁷Cs in 1986 and 1987 after the major radioactive dumping and the Chernobyl fallout in 1986 and then rapidly decreased thereafter. The apparent half-residence time of ¹³⁷Cs in the surface water was estimated to be about 3 years for excess ¹³⁷Cs and 16 years for a rather long time-scale transport, respectively. For ^239,240Pu in the surface water, no systematic temporal variation was observed over the past two decades, which may reflect rapid recycling of deeper Pu. The results revealed that most of the recent radioactivity in water columns of the Sea of Japan was of global fallout origin from atmospheric nuclear testing and partly the Chernobyl fallout. No clear signal about the effect of radioactivity from Russian dumping was observed.     

Dynamic model for radionuclide uptake in lichen

Samples of atmospheric particulate material and terrestrial plants, including lichens, were collected in New Brunswick, Canada between 1980 and 1983 and analyzed for a wide range of artificial and naturally-occuring radionuclides, including fission products (¹⁴¹Ce, ¹⁴⁴Ce, ¹⁰³Ru, ¹⁰⁶Ru, ⁹⁵Zr and ¹³⁷Cs) derived from the 16 October 1980 Chinese nuclear test. Activity ratios of some of the short-lived fission products in air particulates and lichens are in reasonable agreement with those predicted from fission product yields for nuclear weapons tests, indicating that only minor fractionation occurred for these radionuclides during their transport through air particulate and lichen environmental phases. The ⁷Be inventories measured in a suite of lichen (Cladonia rangiferina) samples were used to calibrate each lichen plant for its collection efficiency for atmospheric particulates and fallout radioactivity.A lichen model has been developed to predict lichen inventories of radioactivity for different lichen growth functions and bio-elimination rates. Assuming that lichen growth results in a linear increase in surface area with time, the experimental results yield biological residence times of 1–2 years for ²¹⁰Pb and Pu and 5–8 years for ¹³⁷Cs. The more efficient retention of ¹³⁷Cs is probably due to its physiological uptake in lichen plants as a proxy for potassium, as evidenced by an observed, inverse relationship between ¹³⁷Cs and ⁴⁰K activities in lichen.     

Review of dynamical models for external dose calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations in urbanised areas

After an accidental release of radionuclides to the inhabited environment the external gamma irradiation from deposited radioactivity contributes significantly to the radiation exposure of the population for extended periods. For evaluating this exposure pathway, three main model requirements are needed: (i) to calculate the air kerma value per photon emitted per unit source area, based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations; (ii) to describe the distribution and dynamics of radionuclides on the diverse urban surfaces; and (iii) to combine all these elements in a relevant urban model to calculate the resulting doses according to the actual scenario. This paper provides an overview about the different approaches to calculate photon transport in urban areas and about several dose calculation codes published. Two types of Monte Carlo simulations are presented using the global and the local approaches of photon transport. Moreover, two different philosophies of the dose calculation, the "location factor method" and a combination of relative contamination of surfaces with air kerma values are described. The main features of six codes (ECOSYS, EDEM2M, EXPURT, PARATI, TEMAS, URGENT) are highlighted together with a short model-model features intercomparison.     

The concentration of Cs in the surface of the Greek marine environment

The radiological status of the Greek marine environment, prior to the Chernobyl accident, was characterized mainly by the fallout from nuclear weapon tests. However, the release of radioactivity into the environment from the accident in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant and its deposition in the Greek marine environment resulted in an increase of the ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration by approximately one order of magnitude. In addition, the direct transport of radiocaesium into the North Aegean Sea has been further influenced by the late impact of the Chernobyl accident on the Greek marine environment, related to the transfer of ¹³⁷Cs, mainly through the Dnieper but also the Danube rivers, to the Black Sea and further to the North Aegean Sea through the Straits of Dardanelles. The aim of this work is to provide a present day picture of the geographic variation of the concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the surface layer of the Greek marine environment and hence, to evaluate the annual committed effective dose delivered to humans through the ingestion pathway from marine sources.     

An assessment of the external radiological impact in areas of Greece with elevated natural radioactivity

In the present study, the radiological impact assessment in three selected areas of elevated natural radioactivity in Greece is attempted, based on measurements, theoretical relations, and simple model application. These areas are Milos--an island of volcanic origin in Cyclades Archipelago, Ikaria--an island in the Eastern Aegean Sea and Loutraki--a coastal area in mainland Greece. These areas are characterized by their geothermal springs and vents, which emit fluids into the littoral and sublittoral zones. The results include: (a) the exposure dose rates assessed by a car-borne scintillation spectrometry system; (b) laboratory measurements of the activity concentrations of the gamma-emitters of 238U and 232Th series and 40K in soil, spring water, seawater and sediments by gamma-spectrometry; (c) estimations of the effective dose rate equivalents and health risk assessment for humans and external dose rates for natural aquatic populations in relation to organism habitat; and (d) a radiological evaluation for the environmental quality, in terms of the discrete zones of impact of ionizing radiation.     

Environmental radioactivity and thermoluminescence: A review

A close link exists between environmental radioactivity and thermoluminescence (TL) and this connection can be gainfully employed in (i) environmental radiation surveillance, (ii) radioactive prospecting and (iii) dating. The science of thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD) is very well established for use in routine radiation monitoring. With the increased public awareness of health effects due to radioactivity releases from nuclear operations. TLDs have become indispensible ‘watchdogs’ in environmental surveillance; in high natural background areas such as the monazite regions, TLDs have yielded invaluable dosimetric data. Over large areas where the cosmic background can be assumed constant, the TLD-recorded radiation profiles can reflected the terrestrial gamma radioactivity distribution pattern and even seasonal variations in the radiation levels above ground may be delineated. A variety of natural materials like minerals, rocks, soils, sands, sediments, fossils, etc., as well as ancient artefacts like potteries and ceramic wares, yield TL even without any irradiation in the laboratory: the natural radioactivity in these materials, together with the radiation incident on them from the environment, causes a TL build-up during antiquity. It is possible to measure this natural TL and relate it to the natural radioactivity of the sample and hence to its age. In contrast, observations of a kind of anticorrelation between TL and a sample's radioactivity have also been made in recent times and the effect is mostly ascribable to alpha-radioactivity-induced damage effects.Typical results from recent investigations of the various aspects mentioned above are presented in this review, with particular emphasis on applications in India.     

Simulating transport of non-Chernobyl (137)Cs and (90)Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region

The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs and (90)Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing and the Sellafield reprocessing plants in the Irish Sea, are simulated using a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysed fields for the period 1950 to present. Comparison of temporal evolution of observed and simulated concentrations of (137)Cs have been conducted for the regions east of Scotland, west of central Norway and at the entrance of the Barents Sea. It follows that the radionuclides from the Sellafield discharge reach the Barents Sea region after 4-5 years, in accordance with observations. The simulation provides a detailed distribution and evolution of the radionuclides over the integration time. For the Atlantic waters off the coast of Norway and in the southern Barents Sea, the atmospheric fallout dominates over the Sellafield release up to the mid 1960s and from the early 1990s, whereas Sellafield is the main source for the two radionuclides in the 1970s and 1980s. It is furthermore argued that model systems like the one presented here can be used for future prediction of radioactive contaminations in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean, for instance under various global warming scenarios.     

Probabilistic risk assessment for long-range atmospheric transport of radionuclides

A simplified means of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for long-range atmospheric transport based on a K-diffusion model is presented. In a case study, model parameters are estimated by comparing with the results of long-range atmospheric dispersion model calculations using one-year numerical weather prediction model data. It is found that the estimated ensemble mean provides a reasonable first approximation to the total dry and wet deposition from the one-year continuous release.     

Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition.     

A method for determining the analytical form of a radionuclide depth distribution using multiple gamma spectrometry measurements

When characterizing environmental radioactivity, whether in the soil or within concrete building structures undergoing remediation or decommissioning, it is highly desirable to know the radionuclide depth distribution. This is typically modeled using continuous analytical expressions, whose forms are believed to best represent the true source distributions. In situ gamma ray spectroscopic measurements are combined with these models to fully describe the source. Currently, the choice of analytical expressions is based upon prior experimental core sampling results at similar locations, any known site history, or radionuclide transport models. This paper presents a method, employing multiple in situ measurements at a single site, for determining the analytical form that best represents the true depth distribution present. The measurements can be made using a variety of geometries, each of which has a different sensitivity variation with source spatial distribution. Using non-linear least squares numerical optimization methods, the results can be fit to a collection of analytical models and the parameters of each model determined. The analytical expression that results in the fit with the lowest residual is selected as the most accurate representation. A cursory examination is made of the effects of measurement errors on the method.     

Modelling the physico-chemical speciation of plutonium in the eastern Irish Sea: a further development

A numerical full three-dimensional model previously developed to simulate the physicochemical speciation of plutonium in the eastern Irish Sea has been improved. The model solves simultaneously the hydrodynamic equations, the suspended matter equation and the equations that give the time evolution of Pu concentrations in water, suspended matter and bottom sediments. It is considered that Pu may exist in each phase in two different oxidation states. Redox reactions are also considered. In the earlier version of the model, a one-step kinetic model was used to describe the transfers of radionuclides between the dissolved and solid phases. Although with this kind of model the contamination of the sediments can be properly simulated, it is clearly not able to describe the re-dissolution of radionuclides from a contaminated sediment once the external source to the sea is reduced. Thus, the model has been improved by substituting the one-step model with a two-step kinetic model consisting of two consecutive reversible reactions. Now it is possible to simulate both the sediment contamination and the re-dissolution processes.     

Levels of 137Cs and 40K in edible parts of some vegetables consumed in Egypt

The concentrations of (137)Cs and (40)K in some Egyptian foodstuffs have been measured. The results of this study can be considered as a first step towards calculating the baseline levels of radioactivity in foodstuffs in Egypt. Furthermore, the data presented herein can be used as a reference level for future food radioactivity monitoring after the possible operation of the planned nuclear power plants, as well as to screen imported foodstuffs that are suspected of being contaminated. The overall intake of (137)Cs is quite low and no significant radionuclide contamination was found. The highest contents of (137)Cs and (40)K among the tested foodstuffs were in Jew's mallow and roquette. Calculations were also made to determine the potential dose to an individual consuming vegetables.