Intergenerational Impartiality: Replacing Discounting by Probability Weighting

Intergenerational impartiality requires putting the welfare of future generations at par with that of our own. However, rational choice requires weighting all welfare values by the respective probabilities of realization. As the risk of non-survival of mankind is strictly positive for all time periods and as the probability of non-survival is cumulative, the probability weights operate like discount factors, though justified on a morally justifiable and completely different ground. Impartial intertemporal welfare maximization is acceptable, though the welfare of people in the very far future has lower effects as the probabilities of their existence are also lower. However, the effective discount rate on future welfare values (distinct from monetary values) justified on this ground is likely to be less than 0.1 per annum. Such discounting does not compromise environmental protection and sustainability unduly. The finiteness of our universe implies that the sum of our expected welfare to infinity remains finite, solving the paradox of having to compare different infinite values in optimal growth/conservation theories.     

Health cost of a nuclear waste repository,WIPP

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), the United States of America's first nuclear waste dumping site, has over the years generated a great deal of concern and controversy. The most sensitive aspect of this project is that it may impose serious health risks on future generations. The first leg of this project is about to be completed and at the time of writing the Department of Energy is planning to perform experiments with a small quantity of waste for operational demonstrations. If everything goes well, then towards the end of this decade large quantities of wastes will be transported to the site for disposal. This article reconsiders the health cost of this project from an economic perspective in light of recent developments in the field of social discounting. As in earlier studies, two cases of health risks are considered: total cancer and genetic deformity over a one million year cutoff period. The analysis shows that whereas ordinary discounting method wipes out the future health detriments, expressed in monetary terms, the modified discounting criterion retains a substantial proportion of such costs in economic analysis.     

Sustainability implications for water resources planning and management

Sustainability has proved to be a unifying concept that emphasizes the need for us to consider the impacts of what we do in our generation on those who follow us in future generations. While we cannot know with certainty what these impacts may be, or what future generations will want or value, we can attempt to include what we think they will want or value in our current planning and management models. In this way we may at least estimate what they would like us to do today to allow them to better satisfy their needs and desires in the future. This then becomes a multiple objective planning problem, where if conflicts exist, trade offs can be identified and debated. This paper presents some approaches for doing this, and discusses how they may be applied in practice in the water resources sector.     

Norton and Passmore on Valuing Nature

Norton argues on pragmatic “Deweyan” grounds that we should cease to ask scientists for value neutral definitions of “sustainability,” developed independently of moral and social values, to guide our environmental policy making debates. “Sustainability,” like human “health,” is a normative concept from the start—one that cannot be meaningfully developed by scientists or economists without input by all the stake holders affected. While I endorse Norton’s approach, I question his apparent presumption that concern for sustainability for the future is at odds with and ought to trump concern for enhancement in the present of public opportunities to access the goods nature represents. I argue that the two are not separable in practice. I argue for Passmore’s position that unless we take care to enhance equitable access to the good and services nature represents in the present, we cannot succeed in promoting sustainability for future generations.     

What do we owe the future?

After discussing five differences in their concern for the future between growth men and environmentalists, and some accounting problems in the measurement of economic growth, it is argued that there is no case for a positive (or negative) time discount rate. Various arguments in its favour are subjected to a critique. In the next section, the notion that we have duties to future generations is subjected to criticism and it is concluded that we do not have a basis in existing moral theory for perpetuating mankind. The apparent contradiction between the case for a zero time discount rate and against the continuation of humanity is cleared up. Finally, some specific problems of responsibilities to future generations are taken up. The principles previously discussed are applied to these cases.     

An economic analysis of environmental protection and management: An example from the Philippines

Summary The island of Palawan covers some 12000 km² and is located in the southwest of the Philippines archipelago. It is a beautiful and as yet relatively unspoilt island but in recent years the social and economic pressures on its natural resources and environment have begun to mount. If present trends continue, severe environmental damage will result. In recognition of this danger, the Philippines government and the European Economic Community have commissioned the preparation of an Integrated Environmental Program (IEP) for the island, as part of an overall economic development program. Phase one of the IEP study comprised an assessment of the island's resources and present situation and the formulation of a plan for the future protection of its environment, taking due account of the need for continuing economic development.An analysis was made of the likely economic returns from the proposed environmental protection program, using conventional benefit-cost analysis methodology. Due to the inadequate data base and the wide-ranging assumptions which had to be made, this was inevitably very approximate in nature. It was carried out in terms of the three main types of conservation activity proposed, namely land-based conservation, mangrove conservation and inshore marine conservation, and the program as a whole. The main benefits and costs were identified and, where appropriate, quantified for inclusion in the analysis.Choice of discount rate and length of analysis period are critical factors affecting the economics of environmental protection, which essentially involves the pursuit of long-term rather than short-term gains, output in the immediate future being restricted to the level of long-term sustained yield for the benefit of future generations. Use of the high discount rates customarily applied for project analysis in countries such as the Philippines (typically, 10–15 percent) places a heavy premium on short-term gains and attributes little or no value to benefits and costs further in the future. To take account of this problem the present values of costs and benefits were calculated using low discount rates of zero and 5 percent. Though this was a necessarily crude and arbitrary method of adjustment it was considered to be a better alternative than that of following normal convention and applying the high rates of discount customarily used in the Philippines.The analysis indicated that the various conservation activities could be expected to produce acceptable, though not spectacular, levels of economic return. Mangrove conservation would be particularly beneficial and the irrigation benefits from preserving river base flows and preventing an increase in peak floods, by means of catchment protection, would be high. The unquantifiable ecological and social benefits would also be substantial.Christopher Finney is Chief Economist of Hunting Technical Services Limited, UK, a major consulting firm involved in planning and implementation of agricultural development overseas, and has been with the firm since 1962. He is an agricultural economist with particular interest and experience in the fields of irrigation, livestock, farm mechanisation, general agriculture and conservation. He has worked on a wide variety of projects in numerous countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Mr Stanley Western is a senior soil scientist and land use planner with the same company. Since joining the firm in 1960 he has undertaken a very wide range of resource assessment and planning assignments in Asia, Africa and Latin America. He was Team Leader on the Palawan Integrated Environmental Program planning study.     

生态文明：社会主义和谐社会的主要基础

生态文明是人类文明的一种形式,它以尊重和维护生态环境为主旨,以可持续发展为根据,以未来人类的继续发展为着眼点。这;仲文明观强调人的自觉与自律,强调人与自然环境的相互依存、相互促进、共处共融。生态文明要求人类尊重和爱护自然,将人类的生活建设得更加美好。生态文明的提出,是人们对可持：续发展问题认识深化的必然结果。     

Giving a Voice to Posterity – Deliberative Democracy and Representation of Future People

The aim of this paper is to consider whether some seats in a democratically elected legislative assembly ought to be reserved for representatives of future generations. In order to examine this question, I will propose a new democratic model for representing posterity. It is argued that this model has several advantages compared with a model for the democratic representation of future people previously suggested by Andrew Dobson. Nevertheless, the democratic model that I propose confronts at least two difficult problems. First, it faces insoluble problems of representative legitimacy. Second, one might question whether this model provides a reasonably effective way to represent future interests compared with existing representative democratic institutions. Despite such problems, it is argued that political representation of posterity can be defended on the basis of fundamental ideas and ideals in recent theory of deliberative democracy. The first reason for this is that in a number of cases democratic decisions cannot be regarded as normatively legitimate from the point of view of deliberative democracy, unless posterity is given a voice. The second reason is that representation of posterity can contribute to more rational and impartial deliberations and decisions in legislative assemblies.     

Nature as an arena for the quality of life: psycho-spiritual values—the next main focus in nature conservation?

The purpose of this article is to discuss the concept of the psycho-spiritual values of nature, to call for increased research and concern, and to address these values as important among the third generation of environmental problems. The loss of biodiversity and the quality of nature harms the basic psychological interests of man: nature contains beauty and wonders, offers a variety of experiences and challenges, acts as a mental anchor, generates insight and wisdom, and represents a part of the identity of every country. To preserve the quality of nature for the benefit of the human mind and spirit, challenges psychologists, biologists, land-use planners and politicians. Nature as an arena for the quality of life is a topic of utmost concern, for it will impact on future generations.     

Hydropower pricing for smelters

Hydropower, in contrast to hydroenergy, is shown to be governed by depletion pricing: its real price is theoretically subject to a secular rise at the real social rate of discount. The alternative is to charge the equivalent constant cost for long term contracts with major consumers such as local authorities and smelters. Contract prices will therefore be above current marginal power cost in the initial phase and below it in the final phase of the contract.     

Status,stigma and energy practices in the home

Domestic energy practices are a topical policy issue, with implications for climate change, energy security and fuel poverty. Accordingly, a growing body of literature examines ways of promoting energy conservation and generation by individuals. However, there has been relatively little discussion of how status and stigma are implicated in these practices, and may act as facilitators or barriers to “behaviour change”. To help address this gap, this article draws both on existing literature and a new UK-based study of people who are attempting to live sustainable lives, to provide insights into how domestic energy practices may be status-enhancing or stigmatising, and how these risks and opportunities can be managed. While energy practices are often understood as “inconspicuous”, it is argued here that in some circumstances individuals may actively manage the visibility of their energy practices. The discussion considers these findings with regard to social power relations, and identifies issues warranting further exploration within the emerging research agenda on energy and equity.     

Culture and the environment in the United States

The beliefs of Americans about the proper relationship between humans and their environment were profoundly affected by waves of immigration from Europe. Immigrants valued ownership of land, individuality, freedom, domination of nature, and technological development. These themes remain strong today as centerpieces of the American dominant social paradigm (DSP).That DSP has been reexamined and found wanting by an increasing proportion of Americans. This departure from the old DSP has progressed further among the public than among the elite who have a greater stake in preserving the status quo. Environmentalists constitute a vanguard trying to lead the people to a new, more environmentally oriented social paradigm. The beliefs of the old DSP and the new environmental paradigm (NEP) are contrasted in Table 2. Briefly, the NEP advocates stress love of nature rather than domination of it; compassion for other peoples, future generations, and other species; planning to avoid risk; limits to growth; fundamental social change; and a new structuring of politics.These two worldviews are likely to be in vigorous conflict for several decades in the USA. Social learning, spurred by deterioration of the old ways, is likely to lead Americans to a new perspective on their relationship to nature.With the advice and assistance of Barbara V. Fisher.     

Food Security: One of a Number of ‘Securities’ We Need for a Full Life: An Australian Perspective

Although agriculture in Australia is very productive, the current food supply systems in Australia fail to deliver healthy diets to all Australians and fail to protect the natural resources on which they depend. The operation of the food systems creates ‘collateral damage’ to the natural environment including biodiversity loss. In coming decades, Australia’s food supply systems will be increasingly challenged by resource price inflation and climate change. Australia exports more than half of its current agricultural production. Government and business are aiming to substantially increase production to bolster exports. This will increase pressure on agricultural resources and exacerbate ‘collateral’ damage to the environment. The Australian public have a deep and ongoing interest in a very wide range of issues associated with the food systems including the environment, health and sustainability. Food is something we require in order to live and a good diet is something we have to have to be healthy. For health over a life-time we need food security. However, we also require a range of other material goods and social arrangements in order to develop and flourish as human beings. And we need these other things to be secure over a life-time. Food is therefore one security among a range of other securities we need in order to flourish. The paper outlines a number of approaches, as examples, that help to identify what these other goods and arrangements might be. The approaches mentioned in this paper include human rights, national securities, human needs, authentic happiness, capabilities, sustainability and environmental ethics. The different approaches provide a way of evaluating the current situation and indicating a direction for change within the food systems that will address the problems. However, changing large systems such as those involved in food supply is difficult because inertias and vested interests make the current food supply systems resilient to change. The paper suggests that one of the first and ongoing tasks is to develop an understanding of the situation from a comprehensive social–ecological systems perspective. The paper also suggests that a practical leverage point for system change is restructuring the flow of information on the health, natural resources and biodiversity loss issues related to the food supply systems.     

Project appraisal and planning for overdeveloped countries: I. The costing of nonrenewable resources

In cost-benefit analysis, natural resources, like other factors of production, should be costed as a mixture of marginal social cost of exploiting additional resources and lost marginal social benefit of forgone alternative uses, according to the way in which extra resources are made available to a project. For a nonrenewable resource, changes in future marginal social cost and marginal social benefit are likely to add significantly to the immediate elements of cost, as successively less tractable resource stocks are exploited. Of the several reasons given for ignoring these future costs, the most plausible is that technological advance justifies a heavy discount on the future. However, neither historical nor logical arguments demonstrate the inevitability of efficacious technological advance.     

The public good dilemma of a non-renewable common resource: A look at the facts of artisanal gold mining

Millions of people worldwide are involved in artisanal and small-scale gold mining. Many of them live in conditions of poverty and insalubrities due to the mercury amalgamation of gold and the application of other rudimentary techniques. In spite of this, the sector has been nearly overlooked by resource economists. In this paper we analyze the sector based on a survey of the existing literature. We find some commonalities of artisanal and small-scale gold mining in different countries of the developing world as follows: low levels of mechanization and technology, labor intensiveness, low awareness of environmental degradation, poor training, high transience among some miners, and lack of financial savings. Moreover, with these commonalities in mind, we present some topics and challenges for a research agenda in the field of environmental, ecological, and development economics.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.     

Review of socio-economic drivers of community acceptance and adoption of decentralised water systems

The aim of this paper is to highlight key social and economic drivers crucial to understanding community acceptance and adoption of decentralised water systems. The review focused on social science literature pertaining to alternative forms of household water, with an emphasis on research examining decentralised water acceptance. Researchers consistently reported that most communities were open to alternative water sources for domestic applications; however, this was highly dependent upon the level of personal contact with the water. Acceptance and adoption of alternative water technology, such as decentralised systems, was influenced by risk perception, water culture, and threat perception. Motivational drivers were also identified as potentially influencing adoption of decentralised systems. A clear limitation of the literature was found to be an over-reliance on measuring people's intentions to adopt alternative water systems and building a conceptual understanding of acceptance solely on hypothetical water supply scenarios. Further, within the social science literature there appears to be a skewing towards focusing on acceptance of centralised alternative water, such as recycled and desalinated water systems. Although there are some research outcomes that are generalizable to the decentralised water context, it is clear that there is a significant gap in the knowledge base of social drivers specific to the acceptance of decentralised water systems and the factors contributing to its widespread use. It is recommended that future research focus on examining public attitudes relevant to decentralised water systems, as well as adoption behaviours among current users of these systems. This will assist in developing policies specific to domestic decentralised water use.     

美国在环境议题上的分歧及对中国的启示

美国曾经在环境保护和治理污染上做出了卓越的成绩,但是如今环境议题成为撕裂美国的重要议题。美国的共和党和民主党在环境议题上互相牵制,难以达成共识。最近,美国特朗普总统宣布退出应对气候变化的《巴黎协定》就是这种分歧的表现。但当美国1970年代开始环境立法治理污染的时候,美国社会上下和两大党之间高度一致。在此后,因为环境思想上的差异和代际转变,政党斗争、选举体制、利益集团等多方面原因,美国不同政治势力在环境议题上越发分裂。美国在环境议题上的分歧对中国如今解决环境问题有重要的启示意义:首先,现在我国社会上下一致应对环境问题的广泛共识很宝贵,应该抓住难得的机遇期,为未来环境治理积极立法,留下宝贵法治遗产。另一方面,随着人们在环境议题上的利益变得多元,中国应该在环境治理上整合各方面利益,防止中国未来的环保事业被利益集团绑架。最后,中国应该明确环境议题的概念远远大于治理污染,为未来环境事业扩展空间。     

Consumption Advisories and Compliance: The Fishing Public and the Deamplification of Risk

Managers and regulators have recognized that the fishing public often ignores fish consumption advisories, and the reasons for non-compliance are explored in this paper. Risk assessors acknowledge that there is a social amplification (intensification) of risk where the public perceive a risk as much more severe than do the 'experts' or scientists, and this social amplification is a function of the interaction of hazards with social, psychological and cultural processes. I propose that non-compliance of consumption advisories occurs because of the deamplification of risk in hazards that are familiar and enjoyed, such as fishing and fish consumption. Although the public are generally aware of consumption advisories, they continue to believe the fish are safe to eat, and a high percentage eat the fish they catch. Unlike the amplification of risk, the deamplification of risk from fishing in the face of consumption advisories is partly legitimized by the actions of some governmental agencies, as well as by society at large. It is suggested that a variety of economic benefits and social institutions lead to a discounting of consumption advisories, and the delayed nature of adverse health effects allows for additional disregard. Further, it is suggested that co-management of the risk from contaminated fish would increase public involvement, and therefore compliance.     

WATER RIGHTS,EMINENT DOMAIN,AND THE PUBLIC TRUST1

ABSTRACT: Faced with the necessity of meeting growing municipal water requirements in areas where available supplies are completely allocated, numerous cities throughout the West are turning to their eminent domain powers to affect a reallocation of water from less preferred uses to municipal uses, thus bringing about a sharp conflict with agricultural interests. As a basis for discussing these eminent domain powers, this paper begins with a brief review of the development of property rights. The existence of both private and public (social) rights in the “bundle of rights” is noted. In recent years the Public Trust Doctrine has been used to limit private rights in property, and to protect and strengthen social rights. A case study which focuses on a conflict between individual and social interests in water rights is discussed. This case involves the City of Thorton, Colorado which initiated municipal condemnation proceedings to acquire the water rights and structures of two nearby irrigation companies. The case represents an attempt to incorporate the spirit of the Public Trust Doctrine into legislation which sets forth procedures for resolution of similar water rights conflicts that will inevitably become more numerous throughout the West in the future.