Adaptation as a Political Process: Adjusting to Drought and Conflict in Kenya’s Drylands

In this article, we argue that people’s adjustments to multiple shocks and changes, such as conflict and drought, are intrinsically political processes that have uneven outcomes. Strengthening local adaptive capacity is a critical component of adapting to climate change. Based on fieldwork in two areas in Kenya, we investigate how people seek to access livelihood adjustment options and promote particular adaptation interests through forming social relations and political alliances to influence collective decision-making. First, we find that, in the face of drought and conflict, relations are formed among individuals, politicians, customary institutions, and government administration aimed at retaining or strengthening power bases in addition to securing material means of survival. Second, national economic and political structures and processes affect local adaptive capacity in fundamental ways, such as through the unequal allocation of resources across regions, development policy biased against pastoralism, and competition for elected political positions. Third, conflict is part and parcel of the adaptation process, not just an external factor inhibiting local adaptation strategies. Fourth, there are relative winners and losers of adaptation, but whether or not local adjustments to drought and conflict compound existing inequalities depends on power relations at multiple geographic scales that shape how conflicting interests are negotiated locally. Climate change adaptation policies are unlikely to be successful or minimize inequity unless the political dimensions of local adaptation are considered; however, existing power structures and conflicts of interests represent political obstacles to developing such policies.     

Resource Selection Probability Functions for Gopher Tortoise: Providing a Management Tool Applicable Across the Species’ Range

The gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is protected by conservation policy throughout its range. Efforts to protect the species from further decline demand detailed understanding of its habitat requirements, which have not yet been rigorously defined. Current methods of identifying gopher tortoise habitat typically rely on coarse soil and vegetation classifications, and are prone to over-prediction of suitable habitat. We used a logistic resource selection probability function in an information-theoretic framework to understand the relative importance of various environmental factors to gopher tortoise habitat selection, drawing on nationwide environmental datasets, and an existing tortoise survey of the Ft. Benning military base. We applied the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an index of vegetation density, and found that NDVI was strongly negatively associated with active burrow locations. Our results showed that the most parsimonious model included variables from all candidate model types (landscape features, topography, soil, vegetation), and the model groups describing soil or vegetation alone performed poorly. These results demonstrate with a rigorous quantitative approach that although soil and vegetation are important to the gopher tortoise, they are not sufficient to describe suitable habitat. More widely, our results highlight the feasibility of constructing highly accurate habitat suitability models from data that are widely available throughout the species’ range. Our study shows that the widespread availability of national environmental datasets describing important components of gopher tortoise habitat, combined with existing tortoise surveys on public lands, can be leveraged to inform knowledge of habitat suitability and target recovery efforts range-wide.     

Modeling Fire Susceptibility to Delineate Wildland–Urban Interface for Municipal-Scale Fire Risk Management

The wildland–urban interface (WUI) is the region where development meets and intermingles with wildlands. The WUI has an elevated fire risk due to the proximity of development and residents to wildlands with natural wildfire regimes. Existing methods of delineating WUI are typically applied over a large region, use proxies for risk, and do not consider site-specific fire hazard drivers. While these models are appropriate for federal and provincial risk management, municipal managers require models intended for smaller regions. The model developed here uses the Burn-P3 fire behavior model to model WUI from local fire susceptibility (FS) in two study communities. Forest fuel code (FFC) maps for the study communities were modified using remote sensing data to produce detailed forest edges, including ladder fuels, update data currency, and add buildings and roads. The modified FFC maps used in Burn-P3 produced bimodal FS distributions for each community. The WUI in these communities was delineated as areas within community bounds where FS was greater than or equal to ?1 SD from the mean FS value ( ${\text{WUI}} = {\text{FS}} \geqslant - 1 \, [\bar \chi - \sigma ]$ ), which fell in the trough of the bimodal distribution. The WUI so delineated conformed to the definition of WUI. This model extends WUI modeling for broader risk management initiatives for municipal management of risk, as it (a) considers site-specific drivers of fire behavior; (b) models risk, represented by WUI, specific to a community; and, (c) does not use proxies for risk.     

Using Public–Private Interplay to Climate-Proof Urban Planning? Critical Lessons from Developing a new Housing District in Karlstad,Sweden

While strengthening public–private interplay is expected to improve the climate profile of urban planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation, less is known about the practice of such new interactive modes of governing. The paper critically examines the role, benefits and limitations of extended public–private interplay in developing a new housing district in Sweden. The developer dialogue between municipal officials and property developers confirms mutual interests, shared understandings and the added value of interacting. However, the closer the dialogue comes to settling agreements, the more difficult it gets for municipal officials to steer the process and its outcomes in favor of climate proofing. Complications with adapting to the new interactive setting means that municipal officials balance between acting as facilitators and/or regulators and property developers between acting as partners, competitors and/or defenders. Refining steering-strategies for sustaining commitments and securing formal agreements are pertinent for using public–private interplay to climate-proof urban planning.     

‘Learning by doing’: adaptive planning as a strategy to address uncertainty in planning

Adaptive management, an established method in natural resource and ecosystem management, has not been widely applied to landscape planning due to the lack of an operational method that addresses the role of uncertainty and standardized monitoring protocols and methods. A review of adaptive management literature and practices reveals several key concepts and principles for adaptive planning: (1) management actions are best understood and practiced as experiments; (2) several plans/experiments can be implemented simultaneously; (3) monitoring of management actions are key; and (4) adaptive management can be understood as ‘learning by doing’. The paper identifies various uncertainties in landscape planning as the major obstacles for the adoption of an adaptive approach. To address the uncertainty in landscape planning, an adaptive planning method is proposed where monitoring plays an integral role to reduce uncertainty. The proposed method is then applied to a conceptual test in water resource planning addressing abiotic-biotic-cultural resources. To operationalize adaptive planning, it is argued that professionals, stakeholders and researchers need to function in a genuinely transdisciplinary mode where all contribute to, and benefit from, decision making and the continuous generation of new knowledge.     

Forest Management Devolution: Gap Between Technicians’ Design and Villagers’ Practices in Madagascar

In the 1980s, tropical forest-management principles underwent a shift toward approaches giving greater responsibilities to rural people. One argument for such a shift were the long-term relations established between rural people and their natural resources. In Madagascar, a new law was drawn up in 1996 (Gelose law), which sought to integrate rural people into forest management. A gap was observed between the changes foreseen by the projects implementing the Gelose law and the actual changes. In this article, we use the concept of the social-ecological system (SES) to analyze that gap. The differences existing between the planned changes set by the Gelose contract in the village of Ambatoloaka (northwest of Madagascar) and the practices observed in 2010 were conceptualized as a gap between two SESs. The first SES is the targeted one (i.e., a virtual one); it corresponds to the designed Gelose contract. The second SES is the observed one. It is characterized by the heterogeneity of forest users and uses, which have several impacts on forest management, and by very dynamic social and ecological systems. The observed SES has been reshaped contingent on the constraints and opportunities offered by the Gelose contract as well as on other ecological and social components. The consequences and opportunities that such an SES reshaping would offer to improve the implementation of the Gelose law are discussed. The main reasons explaining the gap between the two SESs are as follows: (1) the clash between static and homogeneous perceptions in the targeted SES and the dynamics and heterogeneity that characterize the observed SES; and (2) the focus on one specific use of forest ecosystems (i.e., charcoal-making) in the targeted SES. Forest management in the observed SES depends on several uses of forest ecosystems.     

Large Woody Debris and Land Management in California’s Hardwood-Dominated Watersheds

Although large woody debris (LWD) has been studied extensively in conifer-dominated watersheds, relatively little is known about LWD in hardwood-dominated watersheds. Field surveys of 32 hardwood-dominated stream reaches in northern coastal California revealed that levels of LWD varied with land ownership and that living trees strongly influenced debris jam formation. Almost half of the channel-spanning debris jams, which stored the most wood and were most likely to form a pool, were formed behind a key piece that was still living. These living key pieces might provide greater longevity and stability than would otherwise be expected from hardwood LWD. Compared to streams on private land, streams on public land had significantly greater LWD loading and debris-jam frequency. Land management practices that remove wood from streams might be contributing to the degradation of salmonid habitat in Californias hardwood-dominated watersheds.     

Is Denser Greener? An Evaluation of Higher Density Development as an Urban Stormwater‐Quality Best Management Practice1

Abstract: A simple spreadsheet model was used to evaluate potential water quality benefits of high‐density development. The question was whether the reduced land consumed by higher density development (vs. standard suburban developments) would offset the worse water quality generated by a greater amount of impervious surface in the smaller area. Total runoff volume and per acre loadings of total phosphorous, total nitrogen, and total suspended solids increased with density as expected, but per capita loadings and runoff decreased markedly with density. For a constant or given population, then, higher density can result in dramatically lower total loadings than more diffuse suburban densities. The model showed that a simple doubling of standard suburban densities [to 8 dwelling units per acre (DUA) from about 3 to 5 DUA] in most cases could do more to reduce contaminant loadings associated with urban growth than many traditional stormwater best management practices (BMPs), and that higher densities such as those associated with transit‐oriented development could outperform almost all traditional BMPs, in terms of reduced loadings per a constant population. Because higher density is associated with vibrant urban life, building a better city may be the best BMP to mitigate the water quality damage that will accompany the massive urban growth expected for the next several decades.     

Land Use Planning and Social Equity in North Carolina’s Compensatory Wetland and Stream Mitigation Programs

The U.S. Clean Water Act requires compensatory mitigation for wetland and stream damage through restoration of damaged aquatic ecosystems. We evaluate the North Carolina’s Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP), a state agency responsible for compensatory mitigation. We compare communities gaining and losing aquatic resources during mitigation, finding new types of socioeconomic disparities that contradict previous studies of mitigation program behavior. We find average distances between impact and mitigation sites for streams (43.53 km) and wetlands (50.3 km) to be larger in North Carolina than in off-site mitigation programs in other regions previously studied. We also find that aquatic resources in the State are lost from urbanized areas that are more affluent, white, and highly educated, and mitigated at sites in rural areas that are less affluent, less well educated, and have a higher percentage of minorities. We also analyze the relationship between urban growth indicators and EEP accumulation of compensation sites. Growth indicators and long-term population projections are uncorrelated with both projected transportation impacts and advance mitigation acquired by the EEP, suggesting that growth considerations can be more effectively incorporated into the EEP’s planning process. We explore the possibility that spatial mismatches could develop between watersheds that are rapidly growing and those that are gaining mitigation. We make recommendations for ways that regulators incorporate growth indicators into the mitigation planning process.     

China’s Classification-Based Forest Management: Procedures,Problems, and Prospects

China’s new Classification-Based Forest Management (CFM) is a two-class system, including Commodity Forest (CoF) and Ecological Welfare Forest (EWF) lands, so named according to differences in their distinct functions and services. The purposes of CFM are to improve forestry economic systems, strengthen resource management in a market economy, ease the conflicts between wood demands and public welfare, and meet the diversified needs for forest services in China. The formative process of China’s CFM has involved a series of trials and revisions. China’s central government accelerated the reform of CFM in the year 2000 and completed the final version in 2003. CFM was implemented at the provincial level with the aid of subsidies from the central government. About a quarter of the forestland in China was approved as National EWF lands by the State Forestry Administration in 2006 and 2007. Logging is prohibited on National EWF lands, and their landowners or managers receive subsidies of about 70 RMB (US$10) per hectare from the central government. CFM represents a new forestry strategy in China and its implementation inevitably faces challenges in promoting the understanding of forest ecological services, generalizing nationwide criteria for identifying EWF and CoF lands, setting up forest-specific compensation mechanisms for ecological benefits, enhancing the knowledge of administrators and the general public about CFM, and sustaining EWF lands under China’s current forestland tenure system. CFM does, however, offer a viable pathway toward sustainable forest management in China.     

Forest and Farmland Conservation Effects of Oregon’s (USA) Land-Use Planning Program

Oregons land-use planning program is often cited as an exemplary approach to forest and farmland conservation, but analyses of its effectiveness are limited. This article examines Oregons land-use planning program using detailed spatial data describing building densities in western Oregon. An empirical model describes changes in building densities on forest and agricultural lands from 1974 to 1994, as a function of a gravity index of lands commuting distance to cities of various sizes, topographic characteristics, and zoning adopted under Oregons land-use planning program. The effectiveness of Oregons land-use planning program is evaluated based on the statistical significance of zoning variables and by computing estimated areas of forest and agricultural lands falling into undeveloped, low-density developed, and developed building density categories, with and without land-use zoning in effect. Results suggest that Oregons land-use planning program has provided a measurable degree of protection to forest and agricultural lands since its implementation.     

Appreciation, Use, and Management of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in California’s Working Landscapes

"Working landscapes" is the concept of fostering effective ecosystem stewardship and conservation through active human presence and management and integrating livestock, crop, and timber production with the provision of a broad range of ecosystem services at the landscape scale. Based on a statewide survey of private landowners of "working" forests and rangelands in California, we investigated whether owners who are engaged in commercial livestock or timber production appreciate and manage biodiversity and ecosystem services on their land in different ways than purely residential owners. Both specific uses and management practices, as well as underlying attitudes and motivations toward biodiversity and ecosystem services, were assessed. Correlation analysis showed one bundle of ecosystem goods and services (e.g., livestock, timber, crops, and housing) that is supported by some landowners at the community level. Another closely correlated bundle of biodiversity and ecosystem services includes recreation, hunting/fishing, wildlife habitat, and fire prevention. Producers were more likely to ally with the first bundle and residential owners with the second. The survey further confirmed that cultural ecosystem services and quality-of-life aspects are among the primary amenities that motivate forest and rangeland ownership regardless of ownership type. To live near natural beauty was the most important motive for both landowner groups. Producers were much more active in management for habitat improvement and other environmental goals than residential owners. As the number of production-oriented owners decreases, developing strategies for encouraging environment-positive management by all types of landowners is crucial.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis’s Woodpecker

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species’ response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species’ response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis’s Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis’s Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.     

Urban Flood Problems in Dhaka,Bangladesh: Slum Residents’ Choices for Relocation to Flood-Free Areas

This article applies a stated preference choice model to assess trade-offs that residents of two squatter settlements in Dhaka, Bangladesh might consider if they were given choices for relocation to flood-free areas. The respondents were asked to choose repeatedly from a set of choice cards, which displayed different configurations of financial incentives for relocation, such as free or inexpensive land, loans or nonrepayable grants, and provisions for temporary or permanent employment opportunities. The survey results indicated that despite extensive experience with flood problems, many residents of Mirpur and Vasantek found that certain configurations of economic incentives were not attractive enough for them to relocate to flood-free areas. At the same time, they would prefer a reduction in the risk of flooding at their current location. The economic incentives that would best assist in increasing voluntary relocation of residents from their current locations included free land, nonrepayable grants (Taka 20,000), and long-term employment opportunities. Further, differences in geographic location (i.e., Mirpur vs. Vasantek), income levels, and membership in neighborhood communities were linked with the tendency of residents to stay at their current location.