基于系统科学的特种设备事故隐患分类分级管理

针对目前特种设备事故隐患识别、预防不科学的问题,本文结合系统科学与事故致因理论等理论方法进行了特种设备事故隐患分类分级管理的研究,并结合协调理论,提出特种设备安全系统工程的概念,建立了特种设备事故隐患风险管控模型。在此基础上,阐明了特种设备事故隐患管理办法的技术路线和具体工作步骤,较为科学地对特种设备事故隐患进行识别和分类,为进一步提高特种设备的隐患管控能力提供决策支持。     

特种设备使用安全风险三维度评估模型构建

为建立更为科学完善的特种设备安全风险评估体系,实现特种设备精准分类分级管控,有效规范特种设备使用单位安全行为,本文提出了“固有风险+隐患风险+安全信用”的特种设备安全风险三维度评估模型,将特种设备使用单位安全风险分为4个等级,并分析了适合各维度安全风险评估的方法和准则,提出了特种设备三维度分类分级方法和管控策略,以优化配置特种设备安全风险管控资源。     

承压类特种设备使用过程风险分级方法研究

基于风险分析理论,针对承压类特种设备使用运行过程的风险状态,建立了承压类特种设备运行过程的实时风险定性分级模型与定量分级模型;并应用AHP方法设计建立了设备风险分级评价指标体系及权重体系;最终结合风险可接受准则,依据设备运行的现实风险评价分级结果,可将承压类特种设备划分为风险高中低不同类型的设备,以采取相应的安全检验及监管措施,实现基于风险的特种设备科学分级分类,从而为提高安全监管效能提供技术方法支撑。     

基于风险的特种设备使用单位分类监管应用研究

为提高特种设备安全监管效率,缓解设备数量增长与监察力量不足之间的矛盾,基于风险管理理论,提出在风险评价的基础上对特种设备使用单位实施分类监管。在前期特种设备使用单位风险评价体系研究的基础上,结合2011年、2012年的试点应用情况,对风险评价体系的具体评价流程、结果及科学合理性进行了研究。结果表明:C类使用单位的数量依然占据近一半的数量,需引起监管部门的高度重视;同时验证了风险评价体系科学合理、可操作性强,能够有效指导全国分类监管工作的开展。     

基于大数据分析的电梯故障远程诊断模式探讨

通过对我国电梯故障安全管理现状的分析,开展基于电梯故障信号大数据分析技术的电梯故障远程诊断的模式的探讨。针对我国电梯的安全监管存在以救为主防为辅的现状,提出电梯故障实时诊断监管模式;针对电梯故障研究缺乏海量数据深度挖掘和价值提取,提出引入大数据方法探索电梯故障的发生和概率,并探索电梯故障数据远程传输方法;针对国内欠缺电梯故障远程诊断研究,引入基于信号处理的方法、解析模型的方法以及知识体系的方法等三种故障诊断方法,并结合电梯故障数据的调用和支持,开展电梯故障远程诊断模式的探讨。引入的基于大数据分析的电梯故障远程诊断理念,科学优化了电梯风险隐患的管理模式,突出了电梯的监督管理重点,有利于政府、企业的风险监管工作。     

企业特种设备安全管理问题思考

由压力容器定期检验中发现的一处设备重大隐患缺陷问题,引发了对企业在安全管理问题上的一些思考。本文从检验角度提出了企业在特种设备安全管理方面普遍存在的共性问题,并从企业、检验、监管三方面分析了企业安全管理问题存在的原因,同时为提高特种设备的安全运行水平提出相应的建议对策。     

客运索道定量风险评价方法研究

本文在吸收"十一五"研究成果的基础上,借鉴承压类特种设备风险评价技术成熟理论,提出了客运索道定量风险评估流程;通过引入设备特征系数、管理系数和失效系数对客运索道定量失效概率进行修正,将人员伤亡和经济损失两个定量失效后果转化为经济指标进行计算;给出了风险等级评定的准则,提出了客运索道定量风险评估具体方法和指标;通过给出应用案例,认为该方法具有可操作性,适合我国索道情况,应用前景良好。     

区域定量风险评价方法及其在化工园区中的运用

介绍区域定量风险评价的基本原理和评价指标,建立风险计算模型,给出定量风险评价的程序,提出区域定量风险评价方法;利用开发的个人风险计算软件,对某化工园区中区域风险进行了评价;通过分析计算,给出了该区域的个人风险等值线分布图和社会风险图;结果表明,园区中3家企业的重大危险源需进一步采取措施降低风险,使该化工园区的个人风险和社会风险符合推荐标准的要求。该方法为全面了解化工园区风险提供了理论依据,对化工园区装置的布置和科学规划具有重要的指导意义。     

特种设备智能检测监测云服务模式研究

针对特种设备数量高速增长与质量管理服务供给不足等日益复杂的形势,研究基于物联网、大数据、云计算等新一代信息技术的特种设备智能检测监测架构与支撑要素,提出面向设备安全管控的检测监测技术应用模式、面向生命周期环节的集成应用模式、基于动静态数据的云服务应用模式等多种云服务模式,集成技术、平台、数据等多种手段探索特种设备行业检测监测应用与服务创新,满足特种设备生产、使用、检验、检测、监管等多方需求,推动特种设备质量提升、技术优化和风险防范能力升级.     

保障化工园区安全,国外有何高招?

<正>化工园区有利于实现产业集聚和转型升级,但同时也集中了风险和隐患,考验着政府和企业的管理水平。那么,国外的优秀化工园区是如何进行安全管理的,我们一起来看看吧!完善的法规标准与监管体系法律法规是安全生产的根本保障。美国、欧盟和日本等国和地区均就化学品安全管理和应急响应等     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。