Persistence of Different-sized Populations: An Empirical Assessment of Rapid Extinctions in Bighorn Sheep

Abstract: Theory and simulation models suggest that small populations are more susceptible to extinction than large populations, yet assessment of this idea has been hampered by lack of an empirical base. I address the problem by asking how long different-sized populations persist and present demographic and weather data spanning up to 70 years for 122 bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations in southwestern North America Analyses reveal that: (1) 100 percent of the populations with fewer than 50 individuals went extinct within 50 years; (2) populations with greater than 100 individuals persisted for up to 70 years; and (3) the rapid loss of populations was not likely to be caused by food shortages, severe weather, predation, or interspecific competition These data suggest that population size is a marker of persistence trajectories and they indicate that local extinction cannot be overcome because 50 individuals, even in the short term, are not a minimum viable population size for bighorn sheep.     

Fishery Stability, Local Extinctions, and Shifts in Community Structure in Skates

Abstract: Skates are arguably the most vulnerable of exploited marine fishes. Their vulnerability is often assessed by examining fisheries catch trends, but these data are not generally recorded on a species basis except in France. Aggregated skate catch statistics tend to exhibit more stable trends than those of other elasmobranch fisheries. We tested whether such apparent stability in aggregated catch trends could mask population declines of individual species. We examined two time series of species-specific surveys of a relatively stable skate fishery in the northeast Atlantic. These surveys revealed the disappearance of two skate species, long-nose skate (   Dipturus oxyrhinchus ) and white skate (   Rostroraja alba ) and confirmed a previously documented decline of the common skate (   D. batis ). Of the remaining five skate species, the three larger ones have declined, whereas two smaller species have increased in abundance. The increase in abundance and biomass of the smaller species has resulted in the stability of the aggregated catch trends. Because there is significant dietary overlap among species, we suggest the increase in abundance of the smaller species may be due to competitive release as the larger species declined. A consequence of this kind of stability is that declining species cannot be detected without species-specific data, especially in taxa exhibiting competitive interactions. This may explain why previously documented disappearances of two species of skates went unnoticed for so long. The conservation of skates and other elasmobranchs requires species-specific monitoring and special attention to larger species.     

Differential Host Susceptibility to Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis,an Emerging Amphibian Pathogen

Abstract: The amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has received considerable attention due to its role in amphibian population declines worldwide. Although many amphibian species appear to be affected by Bd, there is little information on species‐specific differences in susceptibility to this pathogen. We used a comparative experimental approach to examine Bd susceptibility in 6 amphibian species from the United States. We exposed postmetamorphic animals to Bd for 30 days and monitored mortality, feeding rates, and infection levels. In all species tested, Bd‐exposed animals had higher rates of mortality than unexposed (control) animals. However, we found differences in mortality rates among species even though the amount of Bd detected on the different species’ bodies did not differ. Of the species tested, southern toads (Anaxyrus terrestris) and wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) had the highest rates of Bd‐related mortality. Within species, we detected lower levels of Bd on individuals that survived longer and found that the relationship between body size and infection levels differed among species. Our results indicate that, even under identical conditions, amphibian species differ in susceptibility to Bd. This study represents a step toward identifying and understanding species variation in disease susceptibility, which can be used to optimize conservation strategies.     

Application of Genetic Bottleneck Testing to the Investigation of Amphibian Declines: a Case Study with Natterjack Toads

Abstract: Declines of amphibians are causing widespread concern and in some cases have been explained by factors such as climate change and the spread of microbial pathogens. A problem remains, however, in the unequivocal demonstration of decline in situations where populations may be undergoing natural fluctuations in abundance. We describe the application of a genetic test for bottlenecks ( Cornuet & Luikart 1996 ) that should distinguish between natural oscillations and true population declines. British natterjack toads (   Bufo calamita  ) provide examples of populations that have not declined in recent decades, populations that have declined, and populations in which trends are unclear. Microsatellite allele frequency data from these populations were tested for heterozygote excess and shifts in allele frequency distributions, and inferences from these computations about bottlenecks (i.e., persistently smaller population sizes than the recent means) were compared with demographic information. The genetic test correctly identified bottlenecks and should therefore prove useful in demonstrating whether amphibian declines have occurred where long-term demographic time series are not available.     

Species Review of Amphibian Extinction Risks in Madagascar: Conclusions from the Global Amphibian Assessment

Abstract:  We assessed the extinction risks of Malagasy amphibians by evaluating their distribution, occurrence in protected areas, population trends, habitat quality, and prevalence in commercial trade. We estimated and mapped the distribution of each of the 220 described Malagasy species and applied, for the first time, the IUCN Red List categories and criteria to all species described at the time of the assessment. Nine species were categorized as critically endangered, 21 as endangered, and 25 as vulnerable. The most threatened species occur on the High Plateau and/or have been subjected to overcollection for the pet trade, but restricted extent of occurrence and ongoing habitat destruction were identified as the most important factors influencing extinction threats. The two areas with the majority of threatened species were the northern Tsaratanana-Marojejy-Masoala highlands and the southeastern Anosy Mountains. The current system of protected areas includes 82% of the threatened amphibian species. Of the critically endangered species, 6 did not occur in any protected area. For conservation of these species we recommend the creation of a reserve for the species of the Mantella aurantiaca group, the inclusion of two Scaphiophryne species in the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species Appendix II, and the suspension of commercial collecting for Mantella cowani . Field surveys during the last 15 years reveal no pervasive extinction of Malagasy amphibians resulting from disease or other agents, as has been reported in some other areas of the world.     

Effects of Road Mortality and Mitigation Measures on Amphibian Populations

Road mortality is a widely recognized but rarely quantified threat to the viability of amphibian populations. The global extent of the problem is substantial and factors affecting the number of animals killed on highways include life‐history traits and landscape features. Secondary effects include genetic isolation due to roads acting as barriers to migration. Long‐term effects of roads on population dynamics are often severe and mitigation methods include volunteer rescues and under‐road tunnels. Despite the development of methods that reduce road kill in specific locations, especially under‐road tunnels and culverts, there is scant evidence that such measures will protect populations over the long term. There also seems little likelihood that funding will be forthcoming to ameliorate the problem at the scale necessary to prevent further population declines. Efectos de la Mortalidad en Carreteras y Medidas de Mitigación en Poblaciones de Anfibios Beebee     

Linking Wild and Captive Populations to Maximize Species Persistence: Optimal Translocation Strategies

Abstract:  Captive breeding of animals is widely used to manage endangered species, frequently with the ambition of future reintroduction into the wild. Because this conservation measure is very expensive, we need to optimize decisions, such as when to capture wild animals or release captive-bred individuals into the wild. It is unlikely that one particular strategy will always work best; instead, we expect the best decision to depend on the number of individuals in the wild and in captivity. We constructed a first-order Markov-chain population model for two populations, one captive and one wild, and we used stochastic dynamic programming to identify optimal state-dependent strategies. The model recommends unique sequences of optimal management actions over several years. A robust rule of thumb for species that can increase faster in captivity than in the wild is to capture the entire wild population whenever the wild population is below a threshold size of 20 females. This rule applies even if the wild population is growing and under a broad range of different parameter values. Once a captive population is established, it should be maintained as a safety net and animals should be released only if the captive population is close to its carrying capacity. We illustrate the utility of this model by applying it to the Arabian oryx ( Oryx leucoryx ). The threshold for capturing the entire Arabian oryx population in the wild is 36 females, and captive-bred individuals should not be released before the captive facilities are at least 85% full.     

Local Extinctions of Terrestrial Insectivorous Birds in a Fragmented Landscape near Manaus, Brazil

Abstract: We examined the distributions of nine species of terrestrial insectivorous birds in 4- to 14-year-old rainforest fragments north of Manaus, Brazil. We surveyed 11 fragments of 1, 10, and 100 ha, 95 ha of secondary vegetation, and nine continuous forest plots (controls) of 1–100 ha. We augmented standard spot-mapping with extensive playback surveys. The fragments had been sampled with mist nets before isolation, so our results could be compared with the pre-isolation distribution. For the nine species, there were 55 cases of local extinction in the 11 fragments between about 1 year after isolation and the time of our surveys. This corresponds to 74% extinction of the local populations in fragments. These extinctions occurred despite the second-growth connection of some fragments to continuous forest as little as 70 m away. Three apparent colonization events by species not detected before isolation also occurred, but these may also reflect inadequate sampling before isolation. Our comparison of fragments and similar-sized control plots in continuous forest showed an area effect on species richness in both fragments and control plots, but fragments had fewer species than control plots of equal size. In a fragmented Amazonian landscape, the full suite of terrestrial insectivores would persist in the short term only in large fragments ( > 100 ha), although much larger areas are probably necessary for the long-term persistence of their populations.     

Modeling the Persistence of Small Populations of Strongly Interdependent Species: Figs and Fig Wasps

Conservation problems are usually studied at the population or ecosystem levels. Formulating predictive theory for the domain in between has been difficult. Fig trees and their pollinating wasps, principally tropical groups of organisms, form pairs of obligate mutualists that provide unique opportunities for studying the influence of species interactions on the survival of small populations. Survival of each partner depends on that of the associated species. The pollinator population can be maintained only if figs are produced year-round. Because fig trees flower synchronously at the individual level, wasps have to locate a new individual host tree at each generation. We describe results of simulation models estimating the minimum number of trees required to maintain a wasp population using two levels of the criteria: (1) different probability of survival (50% and 99%) and (2) different time of survival (5 or 1000 years). We also examined how these different estimates are sensitive to differences in the seasonality of flowering period and in the length of the period of female receptivity in figs. Such estimates can be used to understand the potential effects of the reduction of fig population size via fragmentation. Unlike most studies on the effect of low population size on population viability, our paper focuses on maintenance of a biotic interaction, rather than on single-species dynamics. The biotic interaction on which we focus is important because figs in many tropical ecosystems may be keystone resources for frugivores that are in turn essential seed dispersal agents for other plants.