Ordering effects and choice set awareness in repeat-response stated preference studies

We present an experiment designed to investigate the presence and nature of ordering effects within repeat-response stated preference (SP) studies. Our experiment takes the form of a large sample, full-factorial, discrete choice SP exercise investigating preferences for tap water quality improvements. Our study simultaneously investigates a variety of different forms of position-dependent and precedent-dependent ordering effect in preferences for attributes and options and in response randomness. We also examine whether advanced disclosure of the choice tasks impacts on the probability of exhibiting ordering effects of those different types. We analyze our data both non-parametrically and parametrically and find robust evidence for ordering effects. We also find that the patterns of order effect in respondents' preferences are significantly changed but not eradicated by the advanced disclosure of choice tasks a finding that offers insights into the choice behaviors underpinning order effects.     

Improving multi-site benefit functions via Bayesian model averaging: A new approach to benefit transfer

A benefit function transfer obtains estimates of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the evaluation of a given policy at a site by combining existing information from different study sites. This has the advantage that more efficient estimates are obtained, but it relies on the assumption that the heterogeneity between sites is appropriately captured in the benefit transfer model. A more expensive alternative to estimate WTP is to analyze only data from the policy site in question while ignoring information from other sites. We make use of the fact that these two choices can be viewed as a model selection problem and extend the set of models to allow for the hypothesis that the benefit function is only applicable to a subset of sites. We show how Bayesian model averaging (BMA) techniques can be used to optimally combine information from all models.The Bayesian algorithm searches for the set of sites that can form the basis for estimating a benefit function and reveals whether such information can be transferred to new sites for which only a small data set is available. We illustrate the method with a sample of 42 forests from U.K. and Ireland. We find that BMA benefit function transfer produces reliable estimates and can increase about 8 times the information content of a small sample when the forest is ‘poolable’.     

Choice set formation for outdoor destinations: The role of motivations and preference discrimination in site selection for the management of public expenditures on protected areas

Effective public expenditure currently dominates the management focus of many protected areas. This calls for explicit modeling of constraints and motivations that, respectively, obstruct and stimulate visits to selected outdoor destinations. Choice set formation is the result of screening and/or inclusion of specific sites (alternatives) to form the set of sites considered in real choices. Evidence shows that the omission of a structural representation of choice set formation is harmful to econometric inference. Yet, the literature has largely ignored the underlying behavioral phenomenon. We show, using a discrete choice experiment involving selection among seven recreational sites in an Italian national park, that choice set formation is behaviorally relevant, even after controlling for preference discrimination. Motivations (why visit?) are important determinants of preliminary site screening for choice set inclusion, as well as site selection, justifying the additional value of such modeling extension.     

The value of disappearing beaches: A hedonic pricing model with endogenous beach width

Beach nourishment is a policy used to rebuild eroding beaches with sand dredged from other locations. Previous studies indicate that beach width positively affects coastal property values, but these studies ignore the dynamic features of beaches and the feedback that nourishment has on shoreline retreat. We correct for the resulting attenuation and endogeneity bias in a hedonic property value model by instrumenting for beach width using spatially varying coastal geological features. We find that the beach width coefficient is nearly five times larger than the OLS estimate, suggesting that beach width is a much larger portion of property value than previously thought. We use the empirical results to parameterize a dynamic optimization model of beach nourishment decisions and show that the predicted interval between nourishment projects is closer to what we observe in the data when we use the estimate from the instrumental variables model rather than OLS. As coastal communities adapt to climate change, we find that the long-term net value of coastal residential property can fall by as much as 52% when erosion rate triples and cost of nourishment sand quadruples.     

Dynamic environ analysis of compartmental systems: A computational approach

Ecosystems are often modeled as stocks of matter or energy connected by flows. Network environ analysis (NEA) is a set of mathematical methods for using powers of matrices to trace energy and material flows through such models. NEA has revealed several interesting properties of flow–storage networks, including dominance of indirect effects and the tendency for networks to create mutually positive interactions between species. However, the applicability of NEA is greatly limited by the fact that it can only be applied to models at constant steady states. In this paper, we present a new, computationally oriented approach to environ analysis called dynamic environ approximation (DEA). As a test of DEA, we use it to compute compartment throughflow in two implementations of a model of energy flow through an oyster reef ecosystem. We use a newly derived equation to compute model throughflow and compare its output to that of DEA. We find that DEA approximates the exact results given by this equation quite closely – in this particular case, with a mean Euclidean error ranging between 0.0008 and 0.21 – which gives a sense of how closely it reproduces other NEA-related quantities that cannot be exactly computed and discuss how to reduce this error. An application to calculating indirect flows in ecosystems is also discussed and dominance of indirect effects in a nonlinear model is demonstrated.     

Female oviposition-site preference and egg hatching success in the damselfly Calopteryx splendens xanthostoma

By removing males and controlling the rate of water flow past oviposition patches in an experimental area, we showed that female Calopteryx splendens xanthostoma preferred to oviposit in fast flowing water rather than slow flowing water. A series of manipulations revealed the fitness benefits to females for this preference: eggs placed in fast-flowing water developed significantly faster and showed significantly lower mortality than eggs placed in slow-flowing water. A major factor determining this difference was the deposition and growth of encrusting algae which prevented the successful hatching of eggs in slow-flowing water.     

Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

Projecting population trends of endangered amphibian species in the face of uncertainty: A pattern-oriented approach

Amphibian populations have been declining worldwide for the last three decades. Determining the risk of extinction is one of the major goals of amphibian conservation, yet few quantitative models have been developed for amphibian populations. Like most rare or threatened populations, there is a paucity of life history data available for most amphibian populations. Data on the critical juvenile life stage are particularly lacking. Pattern oriented modeling (POM) has been used successfully to estimate life history parameters indirectly when critical data lacking, but has not been applied to amphibian populations. We describe a spatially explicit, individual-based, stochastic simulation model developed to project population dynamics of pond-breeding amphibian populations. We parameterized the model with life history and habitat data collected for the endangered Houston toad (Bufohoustonensis), a species for which there is a high degree of uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. During model evaluation, we focused on explicitly reducing this uncertainty, evaluating 16 different versions of the model that represented the range of parametric uncertainty for juvenile and adult male survival. Following POM protocol, we compared simulation results to four population-level patterns observed in the field: population size, adult sex ratio, proportion of toads returning to their natal pond, and mean maximum distance moved. Based on these comparisons, we rejected 11 of the 16 model versions. Results of the remaining versions confirmed that population persistence depends heavily on juvenile survival, and further suggested that probability of juvenile survival is likely between 0.0075 and 0.015 (previous estimates ranged from 0.003 to 0.02), and that annual male survival is near 0.15 (previous estimates ranged up to 0.43).     

A metapopulation approach of the dynamics of arthropods from Mediterranean-type ecosystems

In this paper we developed a general stage-structured, Leslie-type model, suitable to simulate dynamics of soil arthropods under typical Mediterranean conditions. In order to explore arthropods’ life-history strategies in relation to enhanced spatial heterogeneity of the Mediterranean ecosystems, metapopulation characteristics were considered and different habitat quality regimes, in terms of dominant microclimatic conditions, were taken into account. Environmental stochasticity in temperature and humidity was incorporated into the model, and an elasticity analysis was conducted to quantify contribution of different life-history traits to metapopulation growth rate. The application of the model revealed well-known life-cycle characteristics of Mediterranean arthropods, such as seasonally fluctuating population sizes and skewing phenologies, a fact that confirms models’ reliability. Furthermore, the model seems able to elucidate controversial points of the animals’ life-cycle development, such as the long-term maintenance of populations in the field and the underlying mechanisms related to the adjustment to the specific features of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Subpopulations inhabiting various microsites display different dynamics and the interaction between these subpopulations, via dispersion, seems to be able to ensure stochastic equilibrium for the system. Dispersal appears to play a decisive role, allowing arthropods to conform to spatial severities and habitats fragmentation, rescuing individuals and recolonizing previously extinct habitats.     

Testing the impact of social forces on the evolution of Sahelian farming systems: A combined agent-based modeling and anthropological approach

This article presents the results of a methodology based on an extensive sociological fieldwork in three different sites settled along a gradient of aridity in Nigerien Sahel. This fieldwork led to build a set of rules for the behaviour of individuals in non-pastoralist villages. We implemented these rules into an agent-based model simulating three village archetypes. Each archetype includes biophysical, economical, social agricultural and livestock modules. Results from simulations with no social transition processes show that villages specialize themselves into different economic activities according to natural resource specificities: A decreasing intensification gradient is observed from the most favoured site, with more local productions and good ecological indicators, to the less-favoured site, with a growing proportion of the population wealth coming from migration remittances and “off-shore” livestock. Two family transition processes were implemented, following field observations and literature-based hypotheses: family organizations evolve between a patriarchal mode and a non-cooperative mode following tensions due to income redistribution. Family inheritance systems evolve from a “customary” one-heir mode to a “local Muslim” mode in which all males inherits land. This evolution depends on family tensions due to land availability. Once introducing these processes, the population of each site differentiates itself into specialized groups according to size, assets and social status. Meanwhile, the group proportions and specializations strongly vary according to the sites but they are all characterized by the emergence of individualistic family types and the increase of the village populations’ robustness.     

Male approach and female avoidance as mechanisms of population discrimination in sagebrush lizards

Reproductive isolation and speciation can result from female choice for particular males. Isolation can also result, however, from male mating preferences or from aggressive encounters which then influence mating decisions. In this study, we use laboratory discrimination trials to study the behavioral mechanisms of population discrimination in sagebrush lizards (Sceloporus graciosus). We specifically ask three questions about population-level discrimination: (1) Does it vary in strength in relation to the geographic distance between the populations? (2) Is it more apparent in inter- or intra-sexual interactions? (3) Does it take the form of attraction or avoidance? We ran 890 trials that tested the ability of male and female sagebrush lizards from one population to discriminate their own population from four other populations. In addition, we utilized both sequential and simultaneous-choice designs, which enabled us to distinguish between attraction and avoidance. We found that most population-level discrimination was exhibited by male lizards preferring to associate with particular types of females, as well as female avoidance of particular types of males. The strength and direction of both discriminations depended on the populations compared and on whether the tests were conducted as sequential- or simultaneous-choice tests, producing a complex relationship between geographic distance and behavioral discrimination. Our results suggest that there are roles for male attraction and female avoidance in population discrimination, reproductive isolation, and speciation.     

A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum

This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set.     

Supply and demand: causes and consequences of assortative mating in common terns <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sterna hirundo</Emphasis>

Although assortative mating is widespread among long-lived monogamous birds, the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear in many species. In this study, we analysed assortative mating by age and body mass in the common tern Sterna hirundo with special regard to mate choice decisions of newly paired birds. To assess whether assortative mating by age is an active decision involving either homotypic or directional preferences or rather a passive process due to restricted availability of potential mates, we analysed the influence of age-dependent arrival date and cohort size. Furthermore, we looked for direct benefits in terms of reproductive success. Common terns mated assortatively by age and arrival date but not by body mass at arrival. Assortative mating by age was age dependent and was detected mainly in younger birds, whereas birds older than 8 years rather re-paired with younger ones. The availability of same-aged mates was restricted by cohort size and arrival date. We found no general evidence for better reproductive performance of same-aged pairs. Instead, relative reproductive success was related to own age and the relative age of mate: It should be advantageous for any bird to acquire an old mate; hence, assortative mating by age seems to be beneficial only for old terns but not for young ones. Age-assortative mating in common terns occurred by both passive and active processes, which are not mutually exclusive. Our results do not indicate a homotypic but a directional preference and support the theory that high-quality (older/experienced) individuals tend to mate assortatively if same-aged mates are available, which leaves low-quality (young/inexperienced) individuals to mate among themselves.     

A test of male mating and hunting success in the kestrel: the advantages of smallness?

We tested female choice for male wing and tarsus length and body mass in the kestrel (Falco tinnunculus), a species in which males average about 10% smaller than females. We also studied how male characters are related to their hunting success. In the laboratory, females preferred lighter males with shorter tarsi as mates, if the difference in those characters between competing males was larger than average. Lighter and shorter-winged males seemed to be better hunters than heavier and longer-winged males. Field observations in a year in which voles were scarce suggested that shorter-winged males were also better food providers in courtship feeding than longer-winged males,although in good vole years such a relationship was not found. We argue that females may prefer to pair with smaller males, because they have higher flight performance and better hunting success than heavier males. By doing so, females may gain direct breeding advantages. We conclude that both female choosiness and the hunting efficiency of males well contribute to reversed sexual size dimorphism (RSD, females larger than males) in the kestrel. Received: 18 July 1995/Accepted after revision: 17 August 1996     

生物法-人工湿地组合工艺对小城镇混合污水氮素去除效果研究

在华南热带亚热带地区,利用生物法-人工湿地组合工艺（A/BCO-CW）处理小城镇片区混合污水。全年运行结果表明,A/BCO-人工湿地组合系统对TN和NH4-N具有好的处理效果,年均去除率分别为57.57%、87.73%,平均去除负荷量达到3.85和3.26g·m-2·d-1。A/BCO预处理系统在停留时间为3～6h条件下,对NH4-N去除效率达57.38%,好氧段充分曝气,有利于硝化过程的进行,有效地解决人工湿地因溶解氧不足造成的硝化过程受限制情况,减少了后续湿地所需面积的25%。在0.30～0.59m·d-1水力负荷率下,垂直流-表面流-水平潜流人工湿地组合系统对TN和NH4-N平均去除负荷达到了2.56、0.90g·m-2·d-1;TN、NH4-N去除速率常数为39.8和41.62m·yr-1,这些数值均处于文献中k值范围的高量程内。在进水NH4-N变动范围为6.27～18.8mg·L-1时,出水水质均能稳定达到GB3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》的IV类水1.5mg·L-1的标准。通过探讨A/BCO-CW组合工艺用于混合污水处理效率,实现了A/BCO和CW二者间在处理氮素过程中的优势互补。     

A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras

We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.     

A combined ecosystem and value chain modeling approach for evaluating societal cost and benefit of fishing

We describe a combined ecological and economic approach aimed at giving more equal emphasis to both disciplines, while being integrated so that design, analysis, data entry and storage, and result capabilities are developed with emphasis on deriving a user-friendly, easily accessible tool. We have thus developed the approach as an integrated module of the freely available Ecopath with Ecosim scientific software; the world's most widely applied ecological modeling tool. We link the trophic ecosystem model to a value-chain approach where we explicitly and in considerable detail keep track of the flow (amounts, revenue, and costs) of fish products from sea through to the end consumer. We also describe the social aspects of the fish production and trade, by evaluating employment and income diagnostics. This is done with emphasis on distribution income while accounting for social aspects of the fishing sector. From a management perspective, one of the interesting aspects of the approach we introduce here, is that it opens for direct evaluation of what impact management interventions, e.g., quota settings, effort regulation, or area closures, may have on the ecosystem, the economy and the social setting, as well as on food availability for the consumer.     

Temporal constraints and female preference for burrow width in the fiddler crab, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Uca mjoebergi</Emphasis>

We studied sampling behaviour and mate choice in the fiddler crab Uca mjoebergi. Once a female selects a mate, she copulates in his burrow and remains there until releasing her aquatic larvae. U. mjoebergi occurs in habitats that are inundated only by the highest amplitude spring tides. Females can only release their larvae during these tides, and release before or after will result in complete failure of reproductive effort. Matings occur over a 5-day period near the end of neap tides. Our results suggest that within the mating period, females adjust their larval developmental rates by selecting specific burrows in which to incubate their clutches. We found that at the start of the mating period, females chose larger males as mates. Since male size was positively correlated to burrow width, females were selecting wide burrows and effectively incubating at lower temperatures. This would slow down the developmental rates of larvae. In contrast, females that mated late in the mating period selectively chose small males. By incubating in narrower, warmer burrows, these females may increase the developmental rates of larvae. We propose that females are selecting burrows to influence incubation rate and ensure timely release of their larvae. Female U. mjoebergi appear to adjust their preference for the direct benefits of mate choice to increase their reproductive success.     

Role of competition in phytoplankton population for the occurrence and control of plankton bloom in the presence of environmental fluctuations

Termination of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and coexistence of phytoplankton–zooplankton populations are of great importance to human health, ecosystem, environment, tourism and fisheries. In this paper, we propose a three component model consisting of non-toxic phytoplankton (NTP), toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP) and zooplankton (Z). The growth of zooplankton species is assume to reduce due to toxic chemicals released by TPP population. We have extended the model proposed by Chattopadhyay et al. [Chattopadhyay, J., Sarkar, R.R., Pal, S., 2004. Mathematical modelling of harmful algal blooms supported by experimental findings. Ecol. Comp. 1, 225–235] by including competition terms between TPP and NTP. We observe the effect of competition factors both in the presence and absence of the environmental fluctuation. From our field as well as model analysis we observe that competition helps in the coexistence of the species, but if the effect of competition is very high on the TPP population, it results in planktonic bloom. It is shown that the coexistence equilibrium loses its stability when the competition coefficient crosses a critical value and resulting Hopf-bifurcation around the positive equilibrium depicting oscillations phenomena of the populations.